Rennteam 2.0 - EN - Forum - Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds? - Page1

Nov 28, 2021 11:33:09 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015

What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

So here’s my thought. What if someone spent $40-50 billion on establishing 7,000 or so hydrogen stations on three continents: North America (excluding Mexico), Europe, and Asia. Four questions regarding this hydrogen empire beginning:

How long would it take until manufacturers make hydrogen vehicles (Fuel cell and Hydrogen combustion engine) and would consumers actually buy them after the automakers start building them?
Who would gain money from this? The fuel station company (shells, bp or the like), the hydrogen producer (Linde and the like), or the person who put up the money for the fuel stations?
What would be the opinion of the person who put up the money for the fuel stations being built in those countries? Would he be seen as an idiot, or someone who is trying to jump start and get a solid grip on what could very well be the new fuel empire?
How would we acquire the hydrogen? I know steam reform could be okay for some time as long as the C02 is recaptured and perhaps made into synthetic fuel. (That could actually work.)

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Nov 29, 2021 5:32:10 AM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

It will succeed. Will detail a bit later:)

--

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Nov 29, 2021 8:38:09 AM

the-missile: Rennteam Master; Loc: The World , France; Posts: 3484, Gallery; Registered on: May 10, 2014; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

The hydrogen is developed in Europe since 2010, it is just not advertised to the public. I believe this is going to soon go on the street and then we will see bigger developments. Fuel cell with electric motor will be a perfect combination. Right now, there is work on the standards to try to make it safe and fool proof.

--

GT Lover, Porsche fan

991.2 GT3 manual

Cayenne GTS 2014

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Nov 29, 2021 12:43:08 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: the-missile

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

So you think other manufacturers are still working on it besides bmw and Toyota? I’m talking about the passenger car side, not the trucking side.

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Nov 29, 2021 12:46:49 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

kudryavchik:
It will succeed. Will detail a bit later:)

You’re talking about the engine, or the infrastructure?

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Nov 29, 2021 1:15:31 PM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

kingjr9000:
kudryavchik:
It will succeed. Will detail a bit later:)

You’re talking about the engine, or the infrastructure?

Both. I will try to write more details as I see it. Will return. Or I will write you in private message. Its interesting topic

--

sportcars-history.com

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Nov 29, 2021 3:17:21 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

kudryavchik:
kingjr9000:
kudryavchik:
It will succeed. Will detail a bit later:)

You’re talking about the engine, or the infrastructure?

Both. I will try to write more details as I see it. Will return. Or I will write you in private message. Its interesting topic

You can post it here. I’m glad you like the topic Smiley .

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Nov 29, 2021 3:21:21 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

By the way, an additional question: what is you guy’s opinion on artificial geothermal power plants(EGS) to provide the power for the hydrogen production? Say if someone spent around $40-50 billion on artificial geothermal plants spread out throughout the same areas of the hydrogen stations to power the hydrogen production?

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Nov 29, 2021 3:23:03 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

kingjr9000:
So here’s my thought. What if someone spent $40-50 billion on establishing 7,000 or so hydrogen stations on three continents: North America (excluding Mexico), Europe, and Asia. Four questions regarding this hydrogen empire beginning:

How long would it take until manufacturers make hydrogen vehicles (Fuel cell and Hydrogen combustion engine) and would consumers actually buy them after the automakers start building them?

Who would gain money from this? The fuel station company (shells, bp or the like), the hydrogen producer (Linde and the like), or the person who put up the money for the fuel stations?

What would be the opinion of the person who put up the money for the fuel stations being built in those countries? Would he be seen as an idiot, or someone who is trying to jump start and get a solid grip on what could very well be the new fuel empire?

How would we acquire the hydrogen? I know steam reform could be okay for some time as long as the C02 is recaptured and perhaps made into synthetic fuel. (That could actually work.)

Regarding the bold line, it would be that many on each continent. So a total of around 20-23,000 hydrogen stations altogether.

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Nov 29, 2021 5:23:52 PM

the-missile: Rennteam Master; Loc: The World , France; Posts: 3484, Gallery; Registered on: May 10, 2014; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

kingjr9000:
So you think other manufacturers are still working on it besides bmw and Toyota? I’m talking about the passenger car side, not the trucking side.

Yes, even Major Oil Operators are working on this from the R&D side.

--

GT Lover, Porsche fan

991.2 GT3 manual

Cayenne GTS 2014

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Nov 29, 2021 11:14:15 PM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: the-missile

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

So, first on cars. What we have here.

We have the li ion battery, we have free amount of electric motors (1-3 generally), 500 miles (never happen) of range and about 2 tons of weight. Current commercially available li ion batteries give about 270 Wh/kg. Future solid state ones - double... about 540 wh/kg in theory. Considering the tempo of battery development, with the current solution we will get about 700-800 miles (will also never happen) with the constant other parameters. Take in an account that there is the 1000V limit for consumer electronics so you will not be able to increase the charging power forever. Considering voltage limitations and taking into account the infrastructure and battery reliability we will not get any considerable gain in charging time.

Ecology - current EVs are ecologically clean, if you consider the car itself. But if you take the li ion battery production and recycling - it not. More over, what is ecology? Ecology is efficiency. Efficiency - is getting maximum output from minimal input. And here the battery sucks, because the kilo of petrol contains much much and much more energy than li ion(liS, LiFePO and etc doesn't matter) battery. Even if we consider that the efficiency of electric machine is 90% vs 30% for ICE (and about 40 for hybrid), the li tech and its developments are far behind. Its only energy, then we have to take the materials production. How much materials and energy do we need to produce such amount of li batteries? Also, the more EVs we will have the more infrastructure we need. Imagine a small suburb of 500 houses and everyone starts to charge their evs? How much energy and network required, how many wires, I am even silent about the electricity tariffs. So, EV with li battery has nothing common with ecology, its dirt.

Its one of the parts, later IF you are interested (and if I have time of course) I will write about economics and taxation. And then - shift to hydrogen (because, to be fair, its the best alternative to go ecological and partly save the current model of energy distribution).

--

sportcars-history.com

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Nov 30, 2021 4:37:00 AM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: the-missile

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

the-missile:
kingjr9000:
So you think other manufacturers are still working on it besides bmw and Toyota? I’m talking about the passenger car side, not the trucking side.

Yes, even Major Oil Operators are working on this from the R&D side.

Impressive…

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Nov 30, 2021 4:38:20 AM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

kudryavchik:
So, first on cars. What we have here.

We have the li ion battery, we have free amount of electric motors (1-3 generally), 500 miles (never happen) of range and about 2 tons of weight. Current commercially available li ion batteries give about 270 Wh/kg. Future solid state ones - double... about 540 wh/kg in theory. Considering the tempo of battery development, with the current solution we will get about 700-800 miles (will also never happen) with the constant other parameters. Take in an account that there is the 1000V limit for consumer electronics so you will not be able to increase the charging power forever. Considering voltage limitations and taking into account the infrastructure and battery reliability we will not get any considerable gain in charging time.

Ecology - current EVs are ecologically clean, if you consider the car itself. But if you take the li ion battery production and recycling - it not. More over, what is ecology? Ecology is efficiency. Efficiency - is getting maximum output from minimal input. And here the battery sucks, because the kilo of petrol contains much much and much more energy than li ion(liS, LiFePO and etc doesn't matter) battery. Even if we consider that the efficiency of electric machine is 90% vs 30% for ICE (and about 40 for hybrid), the li tech and its developments are far behind. Its only energy, then we have to take the materials production. How much materials and energy do we need to produce such amount of li batteries? Also, the more EVs we will have the more infrastructure we need. Imagine a small suburb of 500 houses and everyone starts to charge their evs? How much energy and network required, how many wires, I am even silent about the electricity tariffs. So, EV with li battery has nothing common with ecology, its dirt.

Its one of the parts, later IF you are interested (and if I have time of course) I will write about economics and taxation. And then - shift to hydrogen (because, to be fair, its the best alternative to go ecological and partly save the current model of energy distribution).

Smiley

Nice write-up!

I am interested in how the economics would work for this, and especially the hydrogen write-up aspect. As long as you have the time for it.

Thanks.

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Dec 3, 2021 2:56:48 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

https://www.carscoops.com/2021/12/europe-turns-to-green-hydrogen-as-production-costs-are-set-to-fall/

Europe Turns To Green Hydrogen As Production Costs Are Set To Fall

BY SAM D. SMITH | POSTED ONDECEMBER 3, 2021 10

The EU could soon increase their output of green hydrogenas production costs look set to tumble. The claims were made by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, citing a rise in gas prices, meaning that so-called “grey hydrogen” (hydrogen produced using fossil fuels) has become more expensive.

Von der Leyen said green hydrogen, which is obtained by passing renewably-produced electricity through water to split the element from oxygen, could cost less than 1.8 euros ($2.04) per kilogram by 2030 — down from 6 euros ($6.80) per kilo in 2020 and less than last year’s average of 2 euros ($2.27) for grey hydrogen.

As European nations increase capacity, green hydrogen production costs have been steadily falling as they’re likely to surpass current production targets by 2030. According to a report from Reuters, EU climate policy chief Frans Timmermans said he expected the EU and its neighbors to exceed the target of installing electrolyzers capable of 40 GWs.

With the future economics looking favorable towards green hydrogen, it could be a way to cut greenhouse emissions from heavy industry while countries look to cut carbon emissions under the EU’s trading system.

It’s also positive news for manufacturers who have continued to develop hydrogen tech for automotive applications. Japanese manufacturers, including Toyota, Subaru, Kawasaki, and Yamaha recently announced a strategy to collaboratively explore hydrogen use in internal combustion engines, which includes Toyota’s CEO driving a hydrogen-powered race car.

Meanwhile, Hyundai announced earlier this year that it plans to open two new hydrogen fuel cell plants in South Korea. The automaker wants to accelerate the growth of its hydrogen business as it looks to grow into new markets, such as construction machinery and logistics equipment.

And the EU isn’t alone in its ambitions to drive down the price of sustainable hydrogen. British energy supplier BP plans to launch a new large-scale green and blue hydrogen facility in the UK. It follows similar moves from Petroleum Development Oman in the middle east, as well as South Korea’s Kogas Tech.

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Dec 5, 2021 4:17:37 PM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

Interesting that Toyota has changed its mind on EV a bit, starting development and production of purely li ion E vehicles.

--

sportcars-history.com

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Dec 6, 2021 9:26:36 PM

W8MM: Rennteam Master; Loc: Cincinnati, OH , United States; Posts: 3996, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 8, 2003; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

Toyota may have previously tried to imagine what they could do to save their mega-investment in all their means of production for mechanical propulsion.

Perhaps they have less of a quandary, now?

--

Mike

918 Spyder + Taycan Turbo + Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S P100D AP2 + BMWs (Z8 + 3.0 CSi) + Bentley Arnage T

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Dec 7, 2021 9:05:19 AM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: W8MM

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

Difficult to say. I tend to believe that nobody really knows where the mobility will move.

Will it be pure EV on batteries, or hydrogen fuel cells + e machine, hybrid with the ice working on natural fossil or synthetic fuel. There are some gretas in governments (pure idiots) and f.e. in higher management of audi where the director says we should stop natural resources extraction (i wonder where from he tends to get primary energy sources, lithium, or how he is gonna make plastic for his audis), but people who understand the whole energy supply chain are in confusion.

Current pure ev on lithium battery is not a sustainable thing, both from infrastructure and taxation point view. In second case, currently transport ownership and, more important, fuel tax supports the road funds. If we move to electricity, how will these funds to be supported, taxation on electricity? Also the higher demand and need to invest into electric infrastructure + smart grid + taxes will dramatically raise the price on electricity for end customers disbalancing the energy balance. Dangerous thing... it could bring energy crisis and even hunger.

Thats why I believe in hydrogen and synthetic fuel. They will save the energy balance and will not require the drastic change in infrastructure.

What I know for sure, all the trends show it - we will move from private ownership to subscription model. Sharing economics, or economics for poor, how I call it.

--

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Dec 15, 2021 10:32:03 PM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

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Dec 15, 2021 10:32:20 PM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

Upcoming energy crisis in Norway

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Dec 16, 2021 3:48:01 PM

kingjr9000: Senior; Loc: In my mind , United States; Posts: 549, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 15, 2015; Reply to: kudryavchik

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

I’m not following. What does that actually mean? Good or bad news?

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Dec 17, 2021 8:39:57 AM

kudryavchik: Expert; Loc: Moscow , Russia; Posts: 1862, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 18, 2011; Reply to: kingjr9000

Re: What if Toyota’s Hydrogen engine succeeds?

Depends from which side to look at it:) the electricity price goes up across the EU, that means higher bills as for electricity, and for all retail. From the other side, every crisis gives new opportunities)))

--

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