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    May 5, 2005 12:04:40 AM

    nberry Offline
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    With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    in April were down 8% from last year. This must be particularly worrisome to the boys in Stuttgard because last April they were in an end of model run and lower sales were expected.

    But this year they have introduced three new models and their sales are off. To add to their woes, one half of all Porsche SUV sales are in the US and the recent gas prices increases have substantially impacted SUV sales for all car manufacturers. Though Porsche SUV are in high end market, you can be sure going forward their sales will fall off by a fairly large percentage.

    The only good news for Porsche is that VW and BMW also suffer substantial sales decline.

    Now it is possible that Porsche is keeping sales down but not over producing like they have in the past. If this is true, then my hat is off to Stuttgard.

    May 5, 2005 12:15:21 AM

    syf0n
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Nick: after reading here somewhat silently for several years, I will for once post in your threads. I had originally engineered a post that was an inflammatory response to an inflammatory post; I realize, however, that such things serve no purpose.

    I have decided that your posts are like a "fine wine" in the art and mastery of PPP (p!ss poor posting) and always embody the boldest characteristics of a truly poor post.

    You, sir, are a troll amongst trolls.

    May 5, 2005 12:39:37 AM

    brunner
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    Reply to: syf0n

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    With considerable glee i must report that Porsche sales are UP by 242%.

    May 5, 2005 12:50:39 AM

    sdy284
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    Reply to: brunner

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    nberry, you were the kid that threw rocks @ the hornets nest when you were a little kid weren't ya

    May 5, 2005 1:03:19 AM

    Holminator
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    http://www2.porsche.com/english/int/company/annualreport/divisions/sales/

    http://www.hoovers.com/porsche/--ID__91295--/freeuk-co-fin-annual.xhtml

    I have a couple of questions: What does the upturn in fuel prices mean for Ferrari's SUV under development and how is Ferrari doing financially?

    May 5, 2005 1:53:14 AM

    palenimbus
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Nick, can you break that 8% figure down into the yoy changes of individual models?

    I presume that the Cayenne is responsible for that sales decline due to high gas prices as you mentioned (affecting the V6 mainly?). And the "three new models" you mentioned are higher priced sports cars which obviously sell in much smaller volumes, so any pick up in sales would have less of an effect.

    May 5, 2005 2:01:00 AM

    nberry Offline
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    Reply to: brunner

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    brunner said:
    With considerable glee i must report that Porsche sales are UP by 242%.



    Wall Street Journal reports US sales for April DOWN 8%.

    The rest of you relax; this is done in fun though the number I quote is true.

    I do not want to see any company fail. Too many lives will be impacted. However I still believe if Porsche continues its present course many employees will lose their jobs. Thus the consistency in message.

    May 5, 2005 2:09:20 AM

    Ryan in SD
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Can I call you "Mr. Sunshine"?

    May 5, 2005 2:15:30 AM

    Holminator
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Quote:
    brunner said:
    With considerable glee i must report that Porsche sales are UP by 242%.



    Wall Street Journal reports US sales for April DOWN 8%.

    The rest of you relax; this is done in fun though the number I quote is true.

    I do not want to see any company fail. Too many lives will be impacted. However I still believe if Porsche continues its present course many employees will lose their jobs. Thus the consistency in message.



    Not answering the question I see. Perhaps all of us should learn by your example. I think I will.

    May 5, 2005 3:16:07 AM

    JimFlat6
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Sorry Nick, but once again your memory fails you.

    Porsche assembly and supply chain strategy is optimized to be profitable with model/unit production drastically below
    what it currently is.

    So they prepared well for any sales decrease. Porsches
    profitability, hedging strategy and manufacturing flexibility is the envy of the automobile world.

    You may wish to cry wolf on another subject.

    May 5, 2005 4:49:08 AM

    a4ep
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Porsche Total Sales YTD:

    2005: 10,284

    2004: 10,261

    Source - Automotive News

    Looks pretty much flat to me.

    May 5, 2005 5:18:23 AM

    1RAGE
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    Reply to: JimFlat6

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    "With spring has come great interest in our sports cars," said Peter Schwarzenbauer, PCNA President and CEO. "We simply don't have enough cars on hand to fill demand."

    US April 2005 Sales (source Porsche Cars North America)

    May 5, 2005 5:38:48 AM

    ben, lj
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    Reply to: 1RAGE

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    looks like the cayenne is the only segment sucking wind. maybe word has gotten out.

    May 5, 2005 5:55:53 AM

    sdy284
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    Reply to: ben, lj

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    ben, lj said:
    looks like the cayenne is the only segment sucking wind. maybe word has gotten out.




    LOL!

    people are like...waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait a second

    May 5, 2005 11:24:23 AM

    Raptor
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    Reply to: sdy284

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Most automaker's sales of SUVs and large trucks are down. That is why GM is in such trouble, those are their only profitable models. Blame it on higher gas prices.

    Porsche appears to be doing just fine based on their total vehicle sales, even more so when you consider they are selling more of their more lucrative models.

    May 5, 2005 12:29:15 PM

    palenimbus
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    Reply to: Raptor

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    I hope that trend continues, Raptor, and Porsche is forced out of the SUV business

    May 5, 2005 4:11:11 PM

    MKW
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    Reply to: palenimbus

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    There probably isn't much interest in a vehicle that gets occas less than 10 mpg in the daily commute crawl ( Cayenne Turbo ) in the current socio-gas- political climate . All the p.c. types in my neighborhood are selling their mammoth utes for trendy Priuses - weenies . The aging hippies ( cohort that are sheep that have been cunningly marketed to since they were babies in the early 50s always thinking they were independent minded ) across the street bought two .
    OTOH, as sporty as a Cayenne is relative to other 6000 lb vehicles, it's still a 6000 lb vehicle !

    May 5, 2005 4:36:57 PM

    ben, lj
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    Reply to: MKW

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    MKW said:
    There probably isn't much interest in a vehicle that gets occas less than 10 mpg in the daily commute crawl ( Cayenne Turbo ) in the current socio-gas- political climate



    did you notice sales of Cayenne turbos were down much less than those of the the CS and V6? CT owners are likely considerably less price sensitive about gas. fwiw, i get the same mileage in my 04 F150 which hasn't stopped it from being the #1 sold vehicle in america for over 3 decades.

    May 5, 2005 5:29:11 PM

    Ron (Houston)M
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    The actual post by Porsche AG on Porsche.com

    May 04, 2005

    Quote:
    Stuttgart . In April 2005, Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG, Stuttgart, sold 3,307 vehicles in North America. Although there was a seven percent decline in the number of vehicles shipped in the US and Canada from the 3,545 units in April 2004, Porsche has again generated a high level of sales, producing the second-best sales figures for the month of April in the history of the Company. In particular, the Boxster really took off in North America: its sales increased by 81 percent to 1,026 units - further proof of the Roadster's huge popularity among North American customers.

    Sales of the Cayenne declined by 37 percent to 1,146 vehicles. This is primarily due to the basis effect, as an usually high number of the sport utility vehicles, 1,829 units, were shipped to customers in April 2004.

    The 911 continued to enjoy strong demand with 1,092 vehicles sold (down four percent). A key factor was the Carrera Cabriolet, which has been available in North America since mid-March. 43 units of the high performance sports car, the Carrera GT, were shipped in April, after twelve vehicles in the same month of the previous year.


    May 5, 2005 5:43:26 PM

    ben, lj
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    Reply to: Ron (Houston)M

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    "Sales of the Cayenne declined by 37 percent to 1,146 vehicles. This is primarily due to the basis effect, as an usually high number of the sport utility vehicles, 1,829 units, were shipped to customers in April 2004"

    the basis effect?

    May 5, 2005 6:08:22 PM

    mcdelaug
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    Reply to: ben, lj

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    ben, lj said:
    "Sales of the Cayenne declined by 37 percent to 1,146 vehicles. This is primarily due to the basis effect, as an usually high number of the sport utility vehicles, 1,829 units, were shipped to customers in April 2004"

    the basis effect?



    Ben I think they mean that the basis for comparison, the April 04 figure for all Cayenne sales, is abnormally large and thus skewing the comparison with the 2005 year to date data.

    However, their own data shows 1738 Cayennes sold in April 2004, not 1829. Maybe the figures above are sales to dealers, not deliveries to customers? Also, if one removes the April 04 Cayenne data from the year to date 2004 data (5773-1738) and then divides by the remaining 3 months you get 1345 Cayennes per month for early 2004 (not including the purportedly abnormal April month). Compared to the exact same figure for 2005 (1030 by my math if April is excluded) there is still a significant 23% decline in Cayenne sales.

    Overall it looks like the Boxster and 911 sales are signficantly increased over last year, while the Cayenne has significantly slowed. This doesn't seem too abnormal considering the recent model updates for the cars, and that anyone shopping for a Cayenne knows its model update is around the corner.

    I do suspect that the various bugs in the Cayenne have played some role however.

    mcdelaug

    May 5, 2005 6:31:51 PM

    nberry Offline
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    Reply to: mcdelaug

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Do not forget to consider 2004 Boxster sales were moribund. Sales of the 996 were also languishing. Introducing 4 new models and still experience decline in sales is foreboding.

    The need the new model (Cayman) to prop up the numbers.

    A couple of years after that they will get their sedan which I believe will do VERY well. Their original base business of being a sport car company is slowly deterioating and Porsche is transforming itself to something else. As they have gone on record and stated, "their sport cars are of little practical value".

    May 5, 2005 7:11:48 PM

    mcdelaug
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    Reply to: nberry

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    A couple of years after that they will get their sedan which I believe will do VERY well. Their original base business of being a sport car company is slowly deterioating and Porsche is transforming itself to something else. As they have gone on record and stated, "their sport cars are of little practical value".



    Nick I agree that Porsche is steadily morphing into something other than a pure sportscar manufacturer. And it is thus logical that there will be some increased risk of diluting the "sportiness" of the 911 and Boxster. This can occur because sharing engineering and design resources, and parts betwen the sportscars and other products is tempting financially for the manufacturer. However, I think the risk of such "dilution" is less with Porsche as an independent company that makes SUVs and sedans than if it were a subsidiary of another firm and only made sportscars. It is true that Ferrari has remained isolated from Fiat (despite all the teasing to the contrary on rennteam) but this may not always be the case, especially if there is ever a profitability problem.

    And I have yet to see any sportscar that has "practical value."

    mcdelaug

    May 5, 2005 8:50:15 PM

    ben, lj
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    Reply to: mcdelaug

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    mcdelaug said:
    Quote:
    nberry said:
    A couple of years after that they will get their sedan which I believe will do VERY well. Their original base business of being a sport car company is slowly deterioating and Porsche is transforming itself to something else. As they have gone on record and stated, "their sport cars are of little practical value".



    Nick I agree that Porsche is steadily morphing into something other than a pure sportscar manufacturer. And it is thus logical that there will be some increased risk of diluting the "sportiness" of the 911 and Boxster. This can occur because sharing engineering and design resources, and parts betwen the sportscars and other products is tempting financially for the manufacturer. However, I think the risk of such "dilution" is less with Porsche as an independent company that makes SUVs and sedans than if it were a subsidiary of another firm and only made sportscars. It is true that Ferrari has remained isolated from Fiat (despite all the teasing to the contrary on rennteam) but this may not always be the case, especially if there is ever a profitability problem.

    And I have yet to see any sportscar that has "practical value."

    mcdelaug



    fwiw, while the cayenne turbo is several levels below typical porsche quality, it abuses anything else remotely in it's class. as well, the CGT tears up everything on the track - including the 50% MSRP and 250% market price higher Enzo on most tracks. as long as porsche can continue to lead it's class in whatever segment it chooses to produce vehicles, it's better for all of us - as long as they continue to pump out serious, enthusiast based GT2,3, CGT type models.

    May 5, 2005 10:22:05 PM

    mcdelaug
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    Reply to: ben, lj

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    I agree Ben. If Porsche is careful about staying focused on what their customers want, then they should be able to serve every segment of the car martket with top notch products. If the refreshed Cayenne eliminates a lot of the problems of the earliest models, this will be a good sign that Porsche can keep adding product lines AND maintain each product's distinct identity/purpose. Certainly the 987, 997 and CGT appear to be best in class offerings.

    mcdelaug

    May 5, 2005 11:52:58 PM

    Jeff (in SF)
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    Reply to: mcdelaug

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Agreed Ben. These arguments about Porsche branching out gets tiresome to me too. Imagine back in the early to mid '50's when they only made 2 seat roadsters and suddenly start selling a closed car with back seats no less!! (356). As times change, so must the automakers. To not do so is to risk everything they've accomplished over the past 50 years. Let's remember too that Porsche is a publicly traded company and they run a business. Let's see how Ferrari fares sticking only to sports cars once it comes under the daily scrutiny of investors. It'll be interesting when they have to disclose sales figures for individual models like the 612 and 575 and how the stock will be affected. I'm also curious to know if in reality Ferrari is actully the world's most profitable car company once the public has access to its balance sheet and income statements!!

    May 5, 2005 11:53:50 PM

    WBH
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    Reply to: mcdelaug

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Given how tight P has managed 997S supply vs demand, even 8 mos post-intro, must wonder whether these rumors of P trying to strategically create chronic US scarcity in 911 range are somewhat credible. Chk out 997S availability in LA/SF/NYC mkts; clearly, P isn't meeting demand in major mkts. Does P have production/supply chain constraints on 997S? P supposedly has FX hedges in place, so arguments of restricting near-term sales as part of a currency spec play make no sense. Firmness of 997 resale values in 1-2 yrs will be most telling....though from my recollection even P Credit is predicting poor resale values on 997S and 996TTS, based on lease residual terms

    May 6, 2005 12:54:27 AM

    ben, lj
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    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    VKSF said: Firmness of 997 resale values in 1-2 yrs will be most telling....though from my recollection even P Credit is predicting poor resale values on 997S and 996TTS, based on lease residual terms



    personally i believe the crappy lease deals available on pcars as a result of excess depreciation from overproduction of 996s (986s) is motivating porsche to pay attention to their previous "sell one more car than you can sell" policy. not only have non porsche financial lease companies woken up to the ramifications of this mass production mentality, but porsche financial themselves has taken it in the rear-end at lease return time relative to residuals. hence, they and non porsche financial leasing companies are having to adjust the residuals appropriately downward so as to not get butt reamed on lease termination and this has resulted in much uglier payments which can't impact favorably on sales given the high % of pcars which are leased. as well, pcar dealers have found it quite difficult to generate trade in business with the trade in value on used pcars being so horrific. this also has been negatively affecting new car sales. porsche has been pumping up production to line their pockets with no ill affects to them - until recently. but those practices have been coming back to haunt them and perhaps they're adjusting production accordingly.

    May 6, 2005 1:12:53 AM

    mcdelaug
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    Reply to: WBH

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Quote:
    VKSF said: Firmness of 997 resale values in 1-2 yrs will be most telling....though from my recollection even P Credit is predicting poor resale values on 997S and 996TTS, based on lease residual terms



    I'm not certain that Porsche Credit's offering a low residual on a lease is necessarily a reflection of their assessment of its future resale value. It may simply be there way of minimizing their risk. If they anticipate increasing interest rates and a poorer FX market by the end of the lease, a lower residual would compensate them for part or all of this and still make it possible for them to advertise a competitive "money factor" or rate. Or maybe they really DO think the residuals will be low.

    mcdelaug

    May 6, 2005 3:09:05 AM

    WBH
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    Reply to: mcdelaug

    Re: With considerable glee I must report that Porsche sales

    Fair points, guys....leases can have all kinds of reasons for poor terms. What strikes me most greatly is P's relative modest production to-date of 997S vs demand.....is P perhaps actually looking to preserve 911 brand by creating tight supply, thereby buttressing resale values for owners...and eventually giving P more ability to price the higher-margin 997TTS (?perhaps also low volume) at a level closer to 430, than the high-volume 996TT was priced vs 360? As a cynic, would bet that if P mgmt is smart, they will only do what makes sense for shareholders (as they should as a public co.), thus need to preserve P's ability to premium-price and maximize profits as a relatively low-volume, premium brand...which does indirectly tie back to resale value and perceived brand power....unless P wants to go the Wal-Mart/Toyota approach and maximize production/sales and sell cars w/deminimus margins....
     
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