Mithras:
Whoopsy, you're way way over adding, unless you think that 100m cars go through a tank of gas every day as well. The average commute in North America is 16 miles or 25km. Even adding in groceries, running around etc. it's easy to see why most leases are for 15-20,000km a year.
Now as EVs mature it's not unrealistic to say that they will have a range of 500km / charge.
At 20,000km that's 40 full charges a year. Less than one a week. NOT one EVERY night. Now many will want to have a more full battery but that's still either a nightly top up or 2-3 times a week for a quarter "tank of gas".
Plugging that into your scenario makes it look a LOT different.
Actually I am not.
There is some that thinks every EV owner plug in their car at night every day after driving. Just using that scenario. But I am not calculating with all of these EVs as empty and needs a full charge. Hence why I wrote the load goes down as time goes on. Some of the EVs are barely driven and may need a 15 mins charge, others could be just an hour of charging, that's not a lot of electricity, like 8kW. for some EVs that's 40km driven or so. To the grid it makes absolutely no difference, all home chargers starts off with the highest current draw first and ramp down as needed, so the initial peak load is the same for a car with 95% charge left or one with 80% or one with 10% left, and that's 7-9kW/hr.
But if we re-do the scenario using normal car owner behaviour, i.e. people don't keep topping off their gas tank every night, and they do their 'fill-up' at 1/2 'tank', 1/4 'tank', lights on, etc, then the numbers will be quite different. Some cars could go only charging a couple times a week, or if really lightly driven like how I used my e-Tron, charge it once every 3 weeks. The peak load will be a lot lower as the number of cars plugged in at the same time will be a lot lower. But in this scenario, the infrastructure will need to be improved, a lot. Density of quick chargers will need to approach that of gas stations to ease people's mind. It doesn't matter if 75% of these extra chargers aren't being used like gas stations pumps currently are, it's a peace of mind thing for drivers, mentality problem.
So what if someone came home late one night and forgot to plug it in at say 50% charge? Not a problem, he/she could wake up the next morning fully confident that he will come across a quick charge for a top up if needed, which in most cases he/she won't need and can wait till the next day to charge at home at say 35% SoC or something. It's like normal car drivers who never sweat about how much gas they have left in their gas tank, they know they will come across 100s of pumps everywhere.
Adoption of EVs will always be infrastructure limited, whatever EVs on sale atm are all good enough and even better ones see pcoming, but people's mentality aren't prepared yet and they won't be until they see parity or almost parity with what they are used to with gasoline.
With governments around the world trying to ban normal cars within the next decade, stuff needs to happen fast now to prepare for the inevitable.
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