Crown

So according to CarWow, which is a non-biased British yt-channel with 2,5 million subs, the Model 3 is the best EV out there when combining price, performance and utility. Must be because it is a really shitty product 

lukestern:

Whoopsy:

I am extremely impressed by Audi and that new range rating system. It's definitely real world!!

I hit 340km from 100%, and still got another 16% battery life left. I didn't even baby it to squeeze out extra range, no lift off regen either. Pretty much drive it normally like I do with any other of my cars. All city miles too.

It's the first time ever in my life that I drove a car that would hit the rated fuel economy, and actually exceeded. And no cheating driving on highway.

Audi and the EPA rated it to go 329km on a full charge, I just blew that away. 

WOW!!

 

All EVs get above rated range driving slower and in city traffic which is the opposite to a combustion engine car. Lesser aerodynamic cars gets better range driving slow, but it quickly gets worse on the motorway even at moderate speeds at around 120km/h or there about you would not be able to reach the EPA-range.

So your comment about "no cheating driving on the highway" would actually have the exact opposite effect... 

ICE cars get hyper mileage on highways, like I mentioned before, my GT2RS has the potential to go over 800km a tank. Heck, even my 918, when I drove down to Vegas and back, did over 420 miles on a single tank of fuel in Hybrid Mode multiple times.

--

Of course the demand for S and X decrease over the years and they need to refresh it to boost sales. I mean, just look how bad the Panamera sold before the new generation got introduced for example. I wouldn't want to buy an Model S today either, it is expensive and needs a refresh exterior and interior which will come in due course. The free Supercharging incentive is of course a smart demand lever to pull to differentiate it from the Model 3 and gain a few extra sales.

The other thing is that it doesn't matter how S/X sell short term. What matter for Tesla is Model 3 and the coming Model Y. So it is a bit laughable that analysts keep on focusing on the irrelevant stuff that doesn't matter long term. When Tesla introduce next gen S it will look very different, but right now they prioritize Model 3 and Y because they can't afford to do both.

Also, all this talk about "coming competition" is far overrated, specifically in an exponential growing market and if you look into actual volumes and price points. If I was any of the traditional car manufacturers I would be more worried about decrease in sales of the inhouse competing ICE vehicles where all the profit margins come from... 

What's interesting about that piece is that we have been talking about Model 3 cannibalizing sales of Model S/X and it echoed that point months later. They do make money on Model S/X but barely any on Model 3 if at all. 

EV proponents keep trying to push though the point that EV market is growing exponentially, in reality it isn't, far from it. It is growing for sure, but it's a much smaller growth, and to enough to absorb all the incoming EV products, Tesla is growing the quantity they can sell, but that's not enough to offset their lost of market share.

EV cars are not cell phones, more people can afford $1000 phones than $40k, $50k cars. 

Then there is the fact that normal car makers are making money on conventional cars, and they can subsidize their EV products that way, Tesla don't have that luxury, they HAVE to make money on everything they sell. Tesla don't have a long term, it needs to survive in the short term first, like get their finance in order and production issues first. Then they can start thinking long term.

Fully agree but like to add that traditional car makers must protect their existing biz models and are not as free to change as it seems - the new Porsche factory is just one example. And it is likely that one sold Taycan is one less Panamera (or Macan). Interesting times ahead of us for sure 

schmoell:

Fully agree but like to add that traditional car makers must protect their existing biz models and are not as free to change as it seems - the new Porsche factory is just one example. And it is likely that one sold Taycan is one less Panamera (or Macan). Interesting times ahead of us for sure 

Taycan is a smaller car than Panamera, they don't occupy the same segment. Just like E-Class cars don't steal much sales from S-Class, if at all. 

Macan is a small crossover/SUV, it doesn't even compete against a EV sedan. Not to mention it's a lot cheaper. 

Porsche's situation is very different than Tesla. 

Why buy a Model S when one can get basically 90% of a Model S with a Model 3 for a fraction of the purchase price?

Porsche don't have a 2nd EV to cannibalize Taycan sales. They want a Porsche EV? Go buy the Taycan. They want a big conventional or hybrid sedan, take the Panamera. 

--

schmoell:

Fully agree but like to add that traditional car makers must protect their existing biz models and are not as free to change as it seems - the new Porsche factory is just one example. And it is likely that one sold Taycan is one less Panamera (or Macan). Interesting times ahead of us for sure 

Why assume Porsche sales are a zero-sum game?

The Taycan, according to information Porsche released on pre-order data, is bringing in purchasers new to the marque.  Many Californians have economic incentives ranging from direct financial subsidies to use of HOV lanes for single occupancy, which can dramatically shorten travel times, to acquire an EV. These advantages plus the addition of a car from a known, financially stable automaker, can tip a segment of the market away from Tesla toward Porsche, Audi, and Mercedes.  California accounts for approximately 40% of all Tesla Model S/X sales and sales currently are off over 35% for both models.   

Finally, the U.S. based Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has awarded the Audi e-tron its highest 2019 Top Safety Pick+ rating, the first EV to achieve that rating.  Tesla's Model S/X failed to achieve this rating and the Model 3 has yet to be tested.  https://electrek.co/2019/08/14/audi-e-tron-electric-suv-highest-safety-rating-iihs/ 

What I wrote about Taycan vs Panamera is (of course) pure speculation and is mainly based on price of that car and customer loyalty and I think that your projections are the same in one way or another. We'll eventually find out

I don't want to sound offensive in any way and I apologize in advance, but it seems that you (some here) think, that German car makers are bullish and feel like they control the game, where in fact the opposite is the case. I've never seen so much fear about the future than in the last two or three years. It's fear about ELVs, their biz models, GAFAM, new regulations and esp the diminishing rate of innovation and disruption these huge corporations are able to achieve.  That is one reason why automakers (not only the Germans) try to copy development processes from companies like Tesla, Uber, Google. Nowadays everything they do has to be agile(tm) and one can easily image how well this works within the existing structures. It's a big mess touching the whole supply chain,  sales and after sales . As such Kudos to Porsche, but it will be a very long and rough way ... for all of them

One does not doubt the concern of the German auto industry as it has to navigate the global markets with significant government oversight over its collective heads.  The EU, and to a lesser extent, China are determining the auto industry's allocation of investment capital as well as its product portfolio, which may differ significantly from market, i.e., consumer demands.  The U.S. automakers have greater latitude in determining their product mix and a building according to perceived demands of its customers.  Only time will tell if that is the correct market assessment.  

Two advantages the German automakers have over the new entrants are human capital and financial capital-being able to invest in new product to meet the changing regulatory and consumer environment.  As Intel's co-founder Andy Grove titled his book, "Only the Paranoid Survive."

If you look at almost any industry from 20 years ago until now, you'll notice the dramatic change in most of them. One of the common patterns is that "software" took over or significantly transformed that industry. Now, the car industry is esp difficult to take over because of all the mechanical complexity and the huge investments into the fabs. As an example a modern ECU for a combustion engine has about 40.000 parameters, half of them dealing with exhaust gas handling for the various driving conditions. But if you get rid of the combustion engine at all, all the "human capital" investments are useless. Thats why BMW, VW decided to retrain mechanical engineers to software developers and the Stuttgart region is in panic mode. 

In my view ELVs are a very promising way to attack that industry and given climate change,  government support  and what not, it is likely to succeed (well, maybe its H2, but it will not be oil). Having enough capital and being fast (enough) will be key, but having enough cash is not sufficient. 

PS: Why do you write "One does not doubt..." instead of "I don't doubt" ? Just curious ..

Concur with your assessment on human capital and ICE development; however, what remains of the automobile, post ICE, doesn't alter the required human capital in the remaining spaces.  BIW, aerodynamics, dynamics, infotainment demands are unaltered from the transition from ICE to EV.  Even the demands on powertrain development, in terms of handling and traction, remain reminiscent for EVs as with ICEs.  

Regarding the p.s.: background and educational antecedents.  

Is Tesla’s executive turnover really high? This analyst sets out to find the answer...

(14 August 2019)

Tesla Inc. has lost top executives at a faster clip than similar companies have, with turnover “dramatically higher” at the Silicon Valley car maker’s top echelons, an analysis by Bernstein has found. 

Tesla in July announced the departure of its No. 2, Chief Technology Officer J.B. Straubel, its highest-profile executive departure yet. Employee churn at the company, however, has long been under scrutiny on Wall Street and beyond.

Analyst Toni Sacconaghi said in a note Wednesday he set out to address the issue “in a fact-based way,” comparing Tesla with similarly young, fast-growing, and mostly Silicon Valley-based companies such as Snap Inc, Uber Technologies Inc, Lyft Inc and privately held Airbnb Inc.

“Our analysis indicates that Tesla’s annualized executive turnover level has been 27%, notably higher than the cohort average of 15%,” but not “outlandish,” Sacconaghi said, with Snap, with 24% turnover, and Lyft, with 23%, experiencing turnover nearly as high.

Tesla’s turnover of executives reporting directly to Chief Executive Elon Musk, however, has been, at 44%, “dramatically higher than the turnover of CEO’s direct reports at comparable companies,” which has averaged 9%, Sacconaghi said. 

“While one could argue that (Tesla’s) high turnover reflects its unique and demanding culture, we worry that such turnover not only causes instability ... but could also reflect more significant concerns among senior leaders about the company’s direction or workplace practices,” Sacconaghi said.

Tesla did not immediately return a request for comment. The stock on Wednesday was poised to end at its lowest since July 2 amid broader market weakness.

Musk also has more people reporting to him, or about 17 to 18 executives, than it is more typical in other companies (eight to 12 employees), “which is particularly notable given Musk’s other commitments, including (Space Explorations Technologies Corp.),” Sacconaghi said. 

“Worrisome” observations include the finding that Tesla has experienced “unusually high” turnover in key positions: chief accounting officer, general counsel, head of global security, and vice president of Autopilot, with three or more people taking over these roles in recent years.

And in several cases high-profile executives hired externally departed in “short order,” including many who left in under a year, he said. 

In the case of Straubel, the former CTO said he would be taking on an “advisory role,” with vice president of technology Drew Baglino slated to take over Straubel’s duties. 

Tesla shares have lost 32% this year, contrasting with gains of 14% and 10% for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Link:  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-teslas-executive-turnover-really-high-this-analyst-sets-out-to-find-the-answer-2019-08-14

Audi e-tron sales in Germany, for July 2019, was greater than Tesla Model 3 sales and almost exceeded Tesla’s aggregate July 2019 sales in Germany.   

https://cdn.motor1.com/images/custom/Plug-in%20electric%20car%20registrations%20in%20Germany%20%E2%80%93%20July%202019d.png

schmoell:

What I wrote about Taycan vs Panamera is (of course) pure speculation and is mainly based on price of that car and customer loyalty and I think that your projections are the same in one way or another. We'll eventually find out

I don't want to sound offensive in any way and I apologize in advance, but it seems that you (some here) think, that German car makers are bullish and feel like they control the game, where in fact the opposite is the case. I've never seen so much fear about the future than in the last two or three years. It's fear about ELVs, their biz models, GAFAM, new regulations and esp the diminishing rate of innovation and disruption these huge corporations are able to achieve.  That is one reason why automakers (not only the Germans) try to copy development processes from companies like Tesla, Uber, Google. Nowadays everything they do has to be agile(tm) and one can easily image how well this works within the existing structures. It's a big mess touching the whole supply chain,  sales and after sales . As such Kudos to Porsche, but it will be a very long and rough way ... for all of them

I am staying out of this discussion here. But, I have to give you a thumb up. 

AM

CGX car nut:

Audi e-tron sales in Germany, for July 2019, was greater than Tesla Model 3 sales and almost exceeded Tesla’s aggregate July 2019 sales in Germany.   

https://cdn.motor1.com/images/custom/Plug-in%20electric%20car%20registrations%20in%20Germany%20%E2%80%93%20July%202019d.png

Tesla ship and deliver very few cars in Europe first quarter each month so this doesn't say anything if you want to make a real comparison.

Here you have the figures for June 2019 where Tesla sold 7 times more EVs than Audi did in Germany...
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/latest-germany-best-selling-electric-car-brands-and-models/

Yes, this stat that I'm linking doesn't show the real picture either, because Tesla bulk deliver cars end of quarter. If you want to draw any valuable conclusions, you have to look into quarterly sales. Charts for September will look similar to those of June for Tesla and for Audi it will not deviate that much month after month due to differences in their deliver schema.

Just to point out. I really like the E-tron and it has nothing to do with that. What I'm skeptic about is when data is taken out of context without adding relevant information.

schmoell:

What I wrote about Taycan vs Panamera is (of course) pure speculation and is mainly based on price of that car and customer loyalty and I think that your projections are the same in one way or another. We'll eventually find out

I don't want to sound offensive in any way and I apologize in advance, but it seems that you (some here) think, that German car makers are bullish and feel like they control the game, where in fact the opposite is the case. I've never seen so much fear about the future than in the last two or three years. It's fear about ELVs, their biz models, GAFAM, new regulations and esp the diminishing rate of innovation and disruption these huge corporations are able to achieve.  That is one reason why automakers (not only the Germans) try to copy development processes from companies like Tesla, Uber, Google. Nowadays everything they do has to be agile(tm) and one can easily image how well this works within the existing structures. It's a big mess touching the whole supply chain,  sales and after sales . As such Kudos to Porsche, but it will be a very long and rough way ... for all of them

Thanks for posting and I agree with all this.

I think this quote is rather fitting here regarding how things will play out. Just because a company has lot's of funds doesn't mean it will win in the long run, it's more about how quick you can transform and adapt to change.

"It's Not the Big That Eat the Small...It's the Fast That Eat the Slow"

Whoopsy:

Of course the demand for S and X decrease over the years and they need to refresh it to boost sales. I mean, just look how bad the Panamera sold before the new generation got introduced for example. I wouldn't want to buy an Model S today either, it is expensive and needs a refresh exterior and interior which will come in due course. The free Supercharging incentive is of course a smart demand lever to pull to differentiate it from the Model 3 and gain a few extra sales.

The other thing is that it doesn't matter how S/X sell short term. What matter for Tesla is Model 3 and the coming Model Y. So it is a bit laughable that analysts keep on focusing on the irrelevant stuff that doesn't matter long term. When Tesla introduce next gen S it will look very different, but right now they prioritize Model 3 and Y because they can't afford to do both.

Also, all this talk about "coming competition" is far overrated, specifically in an exponential growing market and if you look into actual volumes and price points. If I was any of the traditional car manufacturers I would be more worried about decrease in sales of the inhouse competing ICE vehicles where all the profit margins come from... 

 

What's interesting about that piece is that we have been talking about Model 3 cannibalizing sales of Model S/X and it echoed that point months later. They do make money on Model S/X but barely any on Model 3 if at all. 

EV proponents keep trying to push though the point that EV market is growing exponentially, in reality it isn't, far from it. It is growing for sure, but it's a much smaller growth, and to enough to absorb all the incoming EV products, Tesla is growing the quantity they can sell, but that's not enough to offset their lost of market share.

EV cars are not cell phones, more people can afford $1000 phones than $40k, $50k cars. 

Then there is the fact that normal car makers are making money on conventional cars, and they can subsidize their EV products that way, Tesla don't have that luxury, they HAVE to make money on everything they sell. Tesla don't have a long term, it needs to survive in the short term first, like get their finance in order and production issues first. Then they can start thinking long term.

We for certain don't know how thing will play out and how fast the market will move over to EVs but there are trends and there are interesting data points to make educated predictions from. There are times in history when things go much much faster than anyone could have imagined. Yes, a vehicle is much more expensive than a phone or a flat-TV, but when consumers start to postpone a new vehicle purchase because they "wait" for their favorite brand to launch an EV, then things start to get more difficult for the car industry. Their bread and butter products don't move off the shelves like before, they have huge investments in production facilities that cost billions and as soon as sales move down just a few percentages things can start to look very awkward quickly.

Short term I fully agree with you. It is a huge benefit for the existing automakers that they can subsidize their EVs by selling ICE where they have the margins. In the long term however, things will start to get more interesting. Those who are too slow to transform might miss out completely and when they wake up it might be too late. Teslas advantage is that they don't have this legacy and is a pure EV brand. Teslas issue is of course capital, but as long as there are investors with thick wallets that believe in the long term mission and can look way beyond quarterly results there is a huge opportunity for them to be successful long term. A bumpy road, but at least to this point they still drive on that road 

Interesting times ahead for sure 

lukestern:

CGX car nut:

Audi e-tron sales in Germany, for July 2019, was greater than Tesla Model 3 sales and almost exceeded Tesla’s aggregate July 2019 sales in Germany.   

https://cdn.motor1.com/images/custom/Plug-in%20electric%20car%20registrations%20in%20Germany%20%E2%80%93%20July%202019d.png

Tesla ship and deliver very few cars in Europe first quarter each month so this doesn't say anything if you want to make a real comparison.

Here you have the figures for June 2019 where Tesla sold 7 times more EVs than Audi did in Germany...
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/latest-germany-best-selling-electric-car-brands-and-models/

Yes, this stat that I'm linking doesn't show the real picture either, because Tesla bulk deliver cars end of quarter. If you want to draw any valuable conclusions, you have to look into quarterly sales. Charts for September will look similar to those of June for Tesla and for Audi it will not deviate that much month after month due to differences in their deliver schema.

Just to point out. I really like the E-tron and it has nothing to do with that. What I'm skeptic about is when data is taken out of context without adding relevant information.

Congratulations for proving, once again, the inability of Tesla to develop the logistics needed on a global basis.  The Model 3 was just recently introduced in the EU, so initial sales volumes are predicated on existing demand and order backlog.  With the influx of new EV product from Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, Tesla should not be "batch" shipping cars to meet the anticipated demand but should be shipping on a consistent basis to fulfill all those outstanding orders before the German consumer decides to purchase one of the locally manufactured products.  Tesla needs cash flow, and periodic approach to delivering product does not benefit its cash flow needs.  

CGX car nut:

lukestern:

CGX car nut:

Audi e-tron sales in Germany, for July 2019, was greater than Tesla Model 3 sales and almost exceeded Tesla’s aggregate July 2019 sales in Germany.   

https://cdn.motor1.com/images/custom/Plug-in%20electric%20car%20registrations%20in%20Germany%20%E2%80%93%20July%202019d.png

Tesla ship and deliver very few cars in Europe first quarter each month so this doesn't say anything if you want to make a real comparison.

Here you have the figures for June 2019 where Tesla sold 7 times more EVs than Audi did in Germany...
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/latest-germany-best-selling-electric-car-brands-and-models/

Yes, this stat that I'm linking doesn't show the real picture either, because Tesla bulk deliver cars end of quarter. If you want to draw any valuable conclusions, you have to look into quarterly sales. Charts for September will look similar to those of June for Tesla and for Audi it will not deviate that much month after month due to differences in their deliver schema.

Just to point out. I really like the E-tron and it has nothing to do with that. What I'm skeptic about is when data is taken out of context without adding relevant information.

Congratulations for proving, once again, the inability of Tesla to develop the logistics needed on a global basis.  The Model 3 was just recently introduced in the EU, so initial sales volumes are predicated on existing demand and order backlog.  With the influx of new EV product from Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, Tesla should not be "batch" shipping cars to meet the anticipated demand but should be shipping on a consistent basis to fulfill all those outstanding orders before the German consumer decides to purchase one of the locally manufactured products.  Tesla needs cash flow, and periodic approach to delivering product does not benefit its cash flow needs.  

I just did prove that your post was misleading and based on sherry picked statistics, that's all. How Tesla should or shouldn't manage their logistics is completely irrelevant in this context.

schmoell:

What I wrote about Taycan vs Panamera is (of course) pure speculation and is mainly based on price of that car and customer loyalty and I think that your projections are the same in one way or another. We'll eventually find out

I don't want to sound offensive in any way and I apologize in advance, but it seems that you (some here) think, that German car makers are bullish and feel like they control the game, where in fact the opposite is the case. I've never seen so much fear about the future than in the last two or three years. It's fear about ELVs, their biz models, GAFAM, new regulations and esp the diminishing rate of innovation and disruption these huge corporations are able to achieve.  That is one reason why automakers (not only the Germans) try to copy development processes from companies like Tesla, Uber, Google. Nowadays everything they do has to be agile(tm) and one can easily image how well this works within the existing structures. It's a big mess touching the whole supply chain,  sales and after sales . As such Kudos to Porsche, but it will be a very long and rough way ... for all of them

Car manufacturers are not scared of EVs or the technology involved, they can adapt and they are pretty good in doing that since a car is still...a car, just with a different kind of engine.

The issue at hand is: What do customers actually want? Now? Next year? In five years? In ten years? This is a huge issue, simply because the politicians (in the EU) have done ZERO to pave the way for EVs and the regular car buyer doesn't seem much interested in EVs but everything seems to point towards EVs (media hype, climate change discussion, bla bla) and this gives German car manufacturers a lot of headache right now.

Contrary to Tesla though, German car manufacturers like VW Group are...simply put...rich. They have tons of money, they still make tons of money and if they would fire half of the staff, they would make even more money. Meaning: They will adapt and they will cause Tesla real pain, probably way up into bankruptcy at some point in the future. Unless of course someone buys Tesla at some point and it should be a US manufacturer (for the sake of the US car industry).

If of course EVs won't be the success many are hoping it will be, for whatever reason, Tesla could survive for a while as a niche manufacturer and the experiments VW Group launched with the Taycan, the e-tron and whatever, will be put behind like some sort of trial and error exercise. 

We'll see but believing that German manufacturers are shitting their pants because of Tesla is completely wrong. They are worried about what customers want, what the "right" path into future mobility tech will be but not about the tech itself. The whole German car industry is at a tipping point and moving into the "right" direction is extremely difficult. For now.

--

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Lamborghini Huracan Performante (2019), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mercedes C63 S AMG Cab (2019), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

RC:

schmoell:

What I wrote about Taycan vs Panamera is (of course) pure speculation and is mainly based on price of that car and customer loyalty and I think that your projections are the same in one way or another. We'll eventually find out

I don't want to sound offensive in any way and I apologize in advance, but it seems that you (some here) think, that German car makers are bullish and feel like they control the game, where in fact the opposite is the case. I've never seen so much fear about the future than in the last two or three years. It's fear about ELVs, their biz models, GAFAM, new regulations and esp the diminishing rate of innovation and disruption these huge corporations are able to achieve.  That is one reason why automakers (not only the Germans) try to copy development processes from companies like Tesla, Uber, Google. Nowadays everything they do has to be agile(tm) and one can easily image how well this works within the existing structures. It's a big mess touching the whole supply chain,  sales and after sales . As such Kudos to Porsche, but it will be a very long and rough way ... for all of them

Car manufacturers are not scared of EVs or the technology involved, they can adapt and they are pretty good in doing that since a car is still...a car, just with a different kind of engine.

The issue at hand is: What do customers actually want? Now? Next year? In five years? In ten years? This is a huge issue, simply because the politicians (in the EU) have done ZERO to pave the way for EVs and the regular car buyer doesn't seem much interested in EVs but everything seems to point towards EVs (media hype, climate change discussion, bla bla) and this gives German car manufacturers a lot of headache right now.

Contrary to Tesla though, German car manufacturers like VW Group are...simply put...rich. They have tons of money, they still make tons of money and if they would fire half of the staff, they would make even more money. Meaning: They will adapt and they will cause Tesla real pain, probably way up into bankruptcy at some point in the future. Unless of course someone buys Tesla at some point and it should be a US manufacturer (for the sake of the US car industry).

If of course EVs won't be the success many are hoping it will be, for whatever reason, Tesla could survive for a while as a niche manufacturer and the experiments VW Group launched with the Taycan, the e-tron and whatever, will be put behind like some sort of trial and error exercise. 

We'll see but believing that German manufacturers are shitting their pants because of Tesla is completely wrong. They are worried about what customers want, what the "right" path into future mobility tech will be but not about the tech itself. The whole German car industry is at a tipping point and moving into the "right" direction is extremely difficult. For now.

-

That's exactly the problem with EV. Majority of customers simply don't want them. One reason or another. Be it needs, range, practicality, capacity, etc.

Governments around the world wanted car makers to make EV and citizens to buy EV, and give them great incentives to do so. Think about an alternate universe where there is no EV subsidies and benefits, and see how many would actually go ahead and buy one. It would not be enough to sustain even Tesla itself, not that the current subsidies are making Tesla sustainable.

VAG was tangled in the Diesel gate mess, they don't really have a choice but to go big on 'green' EV to get back on the good grace side. Thanks to Tesla the pioneer, there is some interest in customers buying EV and open up the EV market to create an outlet for their electric offerings. They took advantage of that and make a better EV car already.

Look at the Japanese and Korean car makers, and also GM. They have a choice, they don't need to go big on EV, they can dip their toes and check the surroundings before increasing their investments. The Japanese are even smarter, they didn't put all their eggs in one basket, they go electric and also hydrogen fuel cell route for their 'green' car offerings, together with their ICE engine products, all their bases are covered. 

And I haven't even covered the Chinese car makers, for their own domestic market. That market will be big enough that they don't need to export cars, and because of their government, they have a great competitive advantage in their own market.

Now as I see it, the Chinese market will be the best location for EV to growth. Because they are not handicapped and burdened by democracy, they are flexible and can pivot to cater to anything right away. In built up Western world, it would take years to get through all the red tape and 'democratic voices' even wire up a downtown area for EV. In Chinese there is no such problem. They can go ahead and demolish stuff overnight if the plans called for downtown charging stations. They can also build enough power plants, be it coal, nuclear, or whatever to power that grid without worrying the 'Green Party' objecting to every move. 

And if long term electric car are the wrong path and hydrogen fuel cell is the technology to go to? They can just demolish all the EV stations and build hydrogen charging stations in their place without trouble. 

The Chinese are also just starting to 'grow up'. They are not entrenched in ICE cars. They are easier to be 'convinced' EV cars are good for them.

From Bloomberg this morning; however, one was told that the July 2019 Tesla sales in Germany were a mere anomaly and the trend was only up and up because Tesla uses a batch shipping process.  

Firstly, Tesla announced shipments to South Korea.  One would think that a company would develop one major market before it moved unto another market, unless, possibly, demanded peaked in that first market after initial preorders were fulfilled.  

Secondly, the article below speaks about Nextmove, the largest Tesla customer in Germany canceling its order for myriad reasons.  Customer dissatisfaction is also significant in Norway.  

Tesla is no longer a startup company but a large, nearing middle-aged company, that should have addressed deficiencies in its business and operational model by this time. 

Tesla Service Is Criticized in BMW’s Backyard

Christoph Rauwald

August 15, 2019, 11:00 PM EDT

Stefan Moeller began this year with an ambitious target: to make his car-rental company Nextmove the biggest Tesla Inc. customer in Germany by adding 100 Model 3s to its fleet. He likened the electric car’s arrival on Europe’s shores to a tsunami washing over a region that’s been slow to embrace battery-powered autos.

But the powerful wave Moeller expected has collapsed to a trickle. After weeks of back and forth over unfulfilled repair work and quality issues involving the initial 15 sedans that Tesla delivered -- from scratched bumpers to moisture trapped behind the headlights -- the order of the remaining 85 Model 3s was called off. Tesla also tried to deliver cars that had been previously registered, which would have locked Nextmove out of Germany’s electric-car incentive program and potential tax refunds, Moeller said.

“The Model 3 is a fantastic car. Some of our customers totally fell in love with it,” said Moeller, whose Leipzig-based company has more than 300 electric vehicles in its fleet, including 38 Model S and a dozen Model X. “But the organization behind it doesn’t match that. It’s really sobering.”

Subpar service could be a barrier to Tesla making more of an impact in Germany, where exacting car owners value how painstakingly their BMWs and Mercedes are cared for just as much as the speed of the Autobahn. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, who’s famously inimical to Twitter critiques, acknowledged earlier this year that a lack of service centers in Germany was hampering the company’s growth there.

Viv@flcnhvy

 · Jun 10, 2019

Replying to @elonmusk @ErlArnoy

Germany needs some more service centres as well though. Lucky to have one in my city, but unlike the US, people over here r much less willing to drive ~150km for getting their car serviced

Elon Musk✔@elonmusk

Absolutely agree. Major expansion of service centers underway.

1,543

3:07 PM - Jun 10, 2019

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Tesla believes Nextmove’s decision to cancel its remaining Model 3 order wasn’t entirely due to quality issues, and was largely influenced by frustration with an unrelated dispute earlier in the year, according to a spokesperson. The carmaker was in the process of making repairs and had provided loaner vehicles to the customer at the time the order was canceled. (Nextmove insists it was Tesla that canceled the order, after the rental-car company demanded an improved process for handovers and fixes.)

The Tesla spokesperson blamed the registration issue that Nextmove described on a temporary issue with matching identification numbers to vehicles and said the issue was resolved for impacted customers.

Norway Woes

Poor service is an issue that’s already plagued Tesla in Norway, Europe’s largest electric-car market per capita. Dented and sloppily painted vehicles have fueled the highest level of complaints per unit among all automakers, according to the nation’s consumer watchdog.

In Europe, Tesla is racing against time as more established players wake up to the electric future. The continent is projected to be the world’s second-largest driver of electric cars in the next decade, trailing only China. Customers can already choose between a growing number of battery-powered models from the likes of Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar and Audi.

Moeller says Tesla’s issues extend beyond the Model 3. He spent two years waiting for the carmaker to replace a seat in a Model X that was delivered in July 2017 with a hole in it. A Model 3 arrived more recently with a protruding bulge on one tire. Moeller shared with Bloomberg News his email correspondence with Tesla and photos of the blemished vehicles.

The Tesla spokesperson said the company’s data doesn’t indicate any unusual vehicle quality issues specific to Germany or anywhere else in the world. The company said there’s a small chance cars are blemished during transport to customers and that it addresses those issues quickly.

‘Seriously Worrying’

Nextmove isn’t an isolated case. German social-media platforms and online forums are abuzz with customers airing complaints about faulty parts from sensors to suspensions. Many also describe Tesla’s sales organization in the country as unresponsive.

“I’m still thrilled by the car, because it’s just so much better than anything I’ve driven before, but the quality of the service and some technical parts are seriously worrying,” Rouven Volk, who said by email that he ordered his Model 3 in February and was slated to take delivery less than a month later.

Volk chronicled an odyssey with Tesla that began with a car that couldn’t be handed over because of a defective main display. The company opted to source another Model 3 from its European pool and set a new handover date for a month later. Then, the car had stains on the outside and in the interior, and a cable dangled from where there should have been a light for the back seats. The charging cables and winter tires he ordered were nowhere to be found.

The Tesla spokesperson said unhappy customers can return their cars for a full refund up to seven days after purchase. The company’s data shows German customers have largely been satisfied with their vehicles, including the quality and condition of cars upon delivery.

“Generally, early-adopter customers forgive unconventional newcomers like Tesla a lot of things,” said Stefan Bratzel, a researcher at the Center of Automotive Management near Cologne. “But the more Tesla enters broader customer segments, the more distribution and service have to function.”

Climbing the Charts

Sales of the Model 3, Tesla’s most affordable model, helped make the brand the fastest-growing in Germany in the first seven months of the year, according to data from industry watchdog KBA. While 6,816 registrations is still well behind market leaders, Tesla outsold brands including Jaguar and Alfa Romeo.

Tesla is in the process of doubling the number of service centers in Germany to 17 locations, with a focus largely on urban areas including Berlin, Hamburg and Munich, according to the company’s website. The carmaker is also branching out into mid-size cities such as Kiel, Ulm and Mannheim, and separately lists 16 retail stores in the country.

The brick-and-mortar presence is still a far cry from the sprawling infrastructure that established carmakers have built in Germany over decades. Volkswagen AG, the top-selling automaker in the country, has hundreds of dedicated sales and repair outlets.

Then again, Musk is betting the looming shift toward electric cars and digital services will upend the retail and after-sale business. Battery-powered autos have fewer components that are at risk of breaking down. Tesla also plans to expand its fleet of mobile service vehicles by 50% and increase mobile service coverage by fivefold this year in Europe, according to the spokesperson.

Rust, Scratches

For Volk, rust started showing between the front fender and the driver’s door of his Model 3 after about 100 days and 15,000 kilometers, which he attributes to friction of sheet metal that wasn’t properly sloped. Getting a hold of Tesla service personnel has been challenging because some employees familiar with his case have left the company, Volk said.

Malte Ahl said in an email he withdrew the purchase contract for his Model 3 in March after Tesla didn’t respond to his concerns about glitches including poor paint quality, scratches on the passenger seat and dysfunctional switches.

“I view this way of dealing with the most loyal Tesla fans as unfair and not sustainable,” he wrote in an attached letter addressed to the company’s German unit.

(Updates with further Nextmove comment in fifth paragraph.)

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.

L

Whoopsy:

Now as I see it, the Chinese market will be the best location for EV to growth. Because they are not handicapped and burdened by democracy, they are flexible and can pivot to cater to anything right away. In built up Western world, it would take years to get through all the red tape and 'democratic voices' even wire up a downtown area for EV. In Chinese there is no such problem. They can go ahead and demolish stuff overnight if the plans called for downtown charging stations. They can also build enough power plants, be it coal, nuclear, or whatever to power that grid without worrying the 'Green Party' objecting to every move. 

One of the guys on the Spanish forum is an engineer leading a team in a main Chinese car manufacturer in China working on EV. He says that the way they work there is mind boggling, he asks for something and the team has drawn up the plans the next day, the following day they are are already working with suppliers, and in no time they have it, done. No matter how many hours of the day it takes, no red tapes, no bureaucracy... it gets done, competely different mentality. He says the same thing in Germany would of taken him months to get done, with meetings, approvals by chain of command, more meetings, and so on. The only problem he sees is that they have no initiative, the team needs a leader to get things done, but they bring in people for that job and that they are doing amazing things that are going to come out in the EV market, he dove into examples regarding the tech, the prices, etc but I forgot the the specifics. The way he sees it from his experience from going from Europe to China is that the speed they are going they are taking over in this sector in the future...

I found his comments very interesting and kind of inline with what you are saying.

⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS

Carlos from Spain:

Whoopsy:

Now as I see it, the Chinese market will be the best location for EV to growth. Because they are not handicapped and burdened by democracy, they are flexible and can pivot to cater to anything right away. In built up Western world, it would take years to get through all the red tape and 'democratic voices' even wire up a downtown area for EV. In Chinese there is no such problem. They can go ahead and demolish stuff overnight if the plans called for downtown charging stations. They can also build enough power plants, be it coal, nuclear, or whatever to power that grid without worrying the 'Green Party' objecting to every move. 

One of the guys on the Spanish forum is an engineer leading a team in a main Chinese car manufacturer in China working on EV. He says that the way they work there is mind boggling, he asks for something and the team has drawn up the plans the next day, the following day they are are already working with suppliers, and in no time they have it, done. No matter how many hours of the day it takes, no red tapes, no bureaucracy... it gets done, competely different mentality. He says the same thing in Germany would of taken him months to get done, with meetings, approvals by chain of command, more meetings, and so on. The only problem he sees is that they have no initiative, the team needs a leader to get things done, but they bring in people for that job and that they are doing amazing things that are going to come out in the EV market, he dove into examples regarding the tech, the prices, etc but I forgot the the specifics. The way he sees it from his experience from going from Europe to China is that the speed they are going they are taking over in this sector in the future...

I found his comments very interesting and kind of inline with what you are saying.

Ah, the benefits of communism as the EU and States are seduced by socialism.  

Just read that a German electrical car rental firm canceled an order for 100 Model 3 because of serious quality problems. Apparently, 75% of all Model 3 delivered to them had serious technical issues. Some of them could not even drive because of technical defects...

CGX car nut:

Carlos from Spain:

Whoopsy:

Now as I see it, the Chinese market will be the best location for EV to growth. Because they are not handicapped and burdened by democracy, they are flexible and can pivot to cater to anything right away. In built up Western world, it would take years to get through all the red tape and 'democratic voices' even wire up a downtown area for EV. In Chinese there is no such problem. They can go ahead and demolish stuff overnight if the plans called for downtown charging stations. They can also build enough power plants, be it coal, nuclear, or whatever to power that grid without worrying the 'Green Party' objecting to every move. 

One of the guys on the Spanish forum is an engineer leading a team in a main Chinese car manufacturer in China working on EV. He says that the way they work there is mind boggling, he asks for something and the team has drawn up the plans the next day, the following day they are are already working with suppliers, and in no time they have it, done. No matter how many hours of the day it takes, no red tapes, no bureaucracy... it gets done, competely different mentality. He says the same thing in Germany would of taken him months to get done, with meetings, approvals by chain of command, more meetings, and so on. The only problem he sees is that they have no initiative, the team needs a leader to get things done, but they bring in people for that job and that they are doing amazing things that are going to come out in the EV market, he dove into examples regarding the tech, the prices, etc but I forgot the the specifics. The way he sees it from his experience from going from Europe to China is that the speed they are going they are taking over in this sector in the future...

I found his comments very interesting and kind of inline with what you are saying.

Ah, the benefits of communism as the EU and States are seduced by socialism.  

If the same product was produced in China, Europe or the US which product would you choose? 

Assume most people are stupid and hope they surprise you.

The nextmove thing (cancelling close to 100 model 3 orders) is getting vey much attention over here.  Stefan, one of the managing directors of nextmove, explains for almost 30min the history of what went wrong  [1] ( German, English subtitles, nothing you must watch) - bottom line: wonderful car, big quality issues, Tesla organization is pure chaos. There are also some hints, that Tesla was trying to sell preowned cars as new.  

There seems to be an official answer from Tesla [2] (German) where Tesla claims (among others things) that nextmove has cancelled the order, but nextmove published the cancellation mail they received [3].  On top of that quite some owners over here ("fan boys") are getting p**ed because of the service quality and are complaining in vlogs and forums.

All in all it doesn't look too good for Tesla if you ask me. My car needs some small things fixed and I have to deal with Tesla service over here and my experience is pretty similar to what Stefan describes in the video; and I have one Tesla only.

[1]  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boWp5JqqenY&t=602s
[2]  https://teslamag.de/news/tesla-stellungnahme-nextmove-vorwuerfe-25056
[3]  https://nextmove.de/service-hoelle-tesla-storniert-unsere-model-3/

schmoell:

There are also some hints, that Tesla was trying to sell preowned cars as new.  

I should have added that car nut already posted the Bloomberg version some posts above. Re "sell old car as new": Tesla claims that this was because of a bug in their book keeping which has been fixed meanwhile and that affected cars will get new VINs, which to my knowledge should not be possible - but as more often than not I'm likely missing the obvious ...

Sounds similar to the “neutral algorithms” trying to shape free speech, defense....

I'm puzzled by something with my X5 hybrid, which can be applied to all hybrids. Maybe some knowledgeable people on this board can chime in?

Every morning I drive to work, which is electric, the engine only kicks in at 70 km/u. Now, the only place where my engine starts up (and with me, probably 90% of all the hybrids in my district) is always at the highway ramp when I go from 50 to 130 km/u on full gas. (The roads that lead to the ramp have a 50 km/u speed limit.)

Now my question: how can that be good for these engines when they always rev to 5-6000 rpm form cold. I sometimes cringe at the revs the motor makes, seconds from being started (automatically). I change gear myself when it happens but most owners won't even bother, I suppose.

Any insight?

--

997.2 4S / BMW X5 40e / Donkervoort GT