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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Slightly disagree. You could argue that Apple got into the phone business late and innovated a bit with much success.  Others copied much of their design but have not been able to match Apples continued innovation and design. I would expect Tesla to continue to lead established, slower moving, automakers in innovation even long after they are not the only EV simply because that is the type of company Elon  created. Tesla stock owners are much more forward looking than just a year or two.  Check back in 20 years and see Tesla then. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    This from just 2 days ago:

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-starts-building-e-tron-electric-motors/

    ​​​​​​


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    alexalex88:

    All the rumors around the germans joining the electric race are always the same: you’ll see when they launch their cars. But the truth is that the leaked specs for 2020 cars are virtually the same as Tesla has been putting into the market since 2014.

    Also know-how? Tesla is miles and miles (literally) ahead of its competitors when it comes to EV knowledge.

    Early bird catches the worm and Tesla already have lots of adepts. We here are not the norm, is the first thing you must understand.

    The first advantage myth.  https://hbr.org/2005/04/the-half-truth-of-first-mover-advantage  Not all first movers win in the marketplace and typically are more focused on technology versus customer needs.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Carlos from Spain:
     

    Outside the EV part, Tesla has nothing special, quite the contrary,

    We have argued this many times before. For a lot of people that’s just not true at all. Plus Tesla have that cool factor that no PR money can buy.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    One of my coworker, a woman, who drives a 911, had a Cayenne and also and has her eyes on my California, bought a X 100D last year. She raves about it everyday and says it is the best vehicle she has ever owned in her life...

    Tesla divides people in a way not manufacturer has. You hate it or you love it, you believe or you don’t. At the end of the day, if there are enough people in the first camp, Tesla will stay a major player for quite some time. Again, they are at the top of sales volume in their respective segment...

    Car-centric people have little appreciation for the absolute joy experienced those who hate going to the petrol station and now can leave that be.

    Yes, it has been necessary to fill up with petrol for a hundred years.  People have become adjusted to the necessity.

    However, lots of people absolutely hate the experience.  Especially women.  There are the unwanted attentions of persons of "other" walks of life to be avoided.  There is the stinky smell of spills that get absorbed by ones shoes while maneuvering around the pump.  There is the prospect of unpleasant weather conditions that don't exist inside ones garage.  Lots of people hate the overall experience of fill ups and would love to not have to pump petrol anymore.


    --

     

    Mike

     

    918 Spyder + 991.2 GT2 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S P100D AP2 + Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Carlos from Spain:

    This from just 2 days ago:

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-starts-building-e-tron-electric-motors/


    Electrical motors, yes. The questions is sourcing of batteries. That will be the biggest challenge.

    I suspect this pattern to become very common in the next few years:
    1. Well known car company X produces/launches a great new EV product
    2. Customers realize it is better than the ICE offerings from X company and want to buy it => high demand
    3. Company X unable to scale up production to meet demand due to battery shortage. Delivery times will suffer and what will the customer then do? Wait or look for alternatives?

    There is no doubt that when the traditional car manufacturers "approve" EVs and put them in their showrooms, that will boost sales for every other company whom sell EVs because of market growth and general higher customer acceptance and awareness. When the traditional car manufacturers launch their EVs it is actually a good thing for Tesla and not the opposite.

    #2 in the above list is the Catch-22 for traditional car companies. Most non-Tesla EVs have been compromised products in large part because no established car company is going to be able to make the switch to EVs quickly (they don't have designs to replace all their ICE at once and they don't have the batteries) and if the general public learned how superior EVs are in most ways, they would not be able to keep up with demand and many companies would be facing extinction as people hold on to their old cars longer until they can get an EV. EVs from the traditional manufacturers have up until now been small city cars (e.g BMW i3) and hence have not been competing with the other cars in the line-up.

    Traditional car companies also face competition from their older cars. If consumers see they can get something a lot better than their current ICE if they are willing to wait a bit and keep driving their old car, or buy another used car, they will. And new ICE will become Osborned. This will impact on company X existing ICE cars. To ride further on the Audi track, I'm not sure who would consider a new SQ5 or maybe even well optioned Q7 after the test drive of an E-Tron and getting a hang of the EV superiority?

    Every descent EV produced the coming years will be sold to someone, somewhere in the world. Doesn't matter if it is an Audi, Tesla, Porsche, Hyundai or Nissan. The car will find a customer very quickly.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Here is a complete list of the coming EVs from VW-group. Dates are when the car is supposed to be revealed, not available to customers. First customer delivery will probably take place 6 months after the date below. Volumes are in general rather low in the start and then scale up. Scale-up however is quite modest and volumes very low compared to the ICE equivalent.
     

    2018

    09/2018: Audi e-tron
    10/2018: VW Nutzf. eCrafter
    10/2018: VW Nutzf. MOIA Transporter

    2019

    08/2019: Porsche Taycan Turbo
    10/2019: Skoda Citigo
    11/2019: Seat Mii
    11/2019: Porsche Taycan
    11/2019: Audi e-tron Sportback

    2020

    01/2020: VW Neo
    04/2020: Audi e-tron S
    04/2020: Audi e-tron Sportback S

    08/2020: VW Crozz
    11/2020: Seat MEB Kurzheck
    11/2020: Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo
    11/2020: VW Nutzf. Kastenwagen langer Überhang
    11/2020: VW Nutzf. Kombi langer/kurzer Überhang
    11/2020: VW Nutzf. Multivan langer/kurzer Überhang
    12/2020: Skoda MEB SUV (2 Varianten)

    2021

    01/2021: Audi e-tron GT (J1 Plattform)
    02/2021: VW MEB SUV
    04/2021: Audi MEB SUV
    11/2021: Audi Elaine/E5 (PPE Plattform)
    11/2021: Porsche eMacan (PPE Plattform)

    2022

    01/2022: VW Buzz
    04/2022: Audi eQ5 (PPE Plattform)
    ??/2022: Audi E5 Avant (PPE Plattform)
    04/2022: Bentley Sedan


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    "You Can Put In An Order For Your Audi E-Tron Soon" (Jalopnik)

    Audi will allow customers to place a $1,000 refundable deposit to order the company’s E-Tron electric SUV when it is unveiled in September, a tried-and-true strategy for cashing in early on electric car hype.

    First deliveries of the Audi E-Tron, which will debut on 17 September 2018 in San Francisco, should start in early 2019. That’s a more typical debut-to-release timeline than the last car to make headlines with a $1,000 deposit program, Tesla’s Model 3.

    The Audi E-Tron crossover will be the first of three all-electric models Audi plans to launch by 2020.

    At least one of those is likely to be similar to the Audi E-Tron GT that the company teased in March...

    ...while the Audi E-Tron Sportback we saw in April could round out the range.

    Audi’s also using a new online portal for the owners to track their E-Tron as it’s built, so impatient owners-to-be can watch their baby luxury electric SUV as it comes together. The so-called “digital ecosystem” will be further detailed at the event in September, but I’d expect it to have a lot more to it than purely reservation tracking.

    Link: https://jalopnik.com/you-can-put-in-an-order-for-your-audi-e-tron-soon-1827903069

    Smiley Smiley Smiley 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    1532725961330image.jpeg

    ...is this the data that Elon Musk has been preparing to discuss with investors on the Q2 conference call? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Sorry I do not understand this graph- surely all holders of reservations must either buy or not (=refund), how can there be another 69% that just keep rolling their reservations onwards?


    --

    2017 Range Rover Sport S/C,  2009 Porsche 911S


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    "Elon Musk Faces New Tesla Foes in Default-Swap Market" (Bloomberg)

     1532757344814image.jpeg

    (25 July 2018)

    Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk already had no shortage of supporters and enemies before the company reportedly asked some suppliers to return a portion of their payments. Since that news broke, he can add traders in credit-default swaps to his list of naysayers.

    The cost to insure against Tesla failing to make debt payments surged this week, with five-year credit-default swaps implying a 42 percent chance of a missed debt payment in the next half-decade. As Bloomberg News’s Claire Boston reported, at those levels, it costs about $2 million to protect $10 million of debt. The derivatives go so far as to imply a 10 percent chance of default in the coming year, even though Tesla projected adequate liquidity for at least 12 months in its first-quarter filings.

    I’m not going to take sides on Musk mania. But the jump in CDS prices should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. 

    1532757106500image.jpeg

    Trading in single-name default swaps has been difficult ever since the financial crisis because few firms have ample capacity to take on the associated risk. It’s no different in Tesla’s case. The contracts began trading only earlier this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, after a campaign by JPMorgan Chase & Co. to make a market. According to Barron’s, which chronicled the bank’s efforts, some in the market say as few as five credits have seen a “reasonable volume” of CDS trading start up since the crisis.

    Now, Tesla is flashy and controversial enough to potentially join that group in the coming years. Already, the volatile bond price swings this week were enough to get Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to quote CDS prices, too, according to Reuters. But even then, market makers face another problem: Tesla has only one bond to reference. By contrast, other companies tend to have a wide array of debt, which increases the number of investors potentially interested in default protection.

    Tesla sold a $1.8 billion bond last year, which matures in August 2025. It priced at par with a 5.3 percent coupon, a record low for a security of its rating and maturity, Bloomberg’s Molly Smith and Sally Bakewell reported. That rating, of course is junk — Caa1 by Moody’s Investors Service and B- by S&P Global Ratings.

    The underlying bond trading gives a less alarmist view of the company’s prospects. While yields are almost 2 percentage points higher than when the debt originally priced, it’s still below the levels from late May. Now, perhaps it would have cost even more to insure the debt then if the CDS contracts had been trading. But it’s slightly disingenuous to say that derivatives traders are paying more than they ever have to save themselves from a Tesla default when the bonds are trading at 90 cents on the dollar, rather than 87.

    The stock price tells a similar story. Tesla isn’t at its highest point, but also not plumbing fresh lows, either. Shares, at about $300, are right around the two-year average, despite the enormous interest in short-selling. Investors will get their next big dose of information when the company releases earnings in a week. 

    1532757184565image.jpeg

    The CDS cost has retreated, too, from 20.1 points upfront to 18.9, so it’s possible that the relatively illiquid contracts got ahead of themselves. Naturally, that hasn’t stopped Musk’s critics from seizing on the market as just another example that the company is operating on borrowed time.

    If this week’s pickup in activity is more than just a flash in the pan, the CDS market could serve as a way to monitor the conviction of Tesla’s foes going forward. Musk hasn’t been shy about trolling equity short-sellers. Maybe the sign to take default swaps seriously is when he goes after them as well.

    Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-25/elon-musk-faces-new-tesla-tsla-foes-in-default-swap-market

    ...another piece of the jigsaw puzzle? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    they will have old atari games in the center consolle...hahahaa..to cool


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    993 c2


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Not really, some idiots seem to think that Teslas are really self-driving and do not pay attention to the road when on autopilot...all they need is yet another distraction to do so 


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Musk announces that he is planning to take Tesla private in a $420.00 per share deal, leading to an enterprise valuation of $82 billion.  Funding sources haven't been disclosed.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:

    Musk announces that he is planning to take Tesla private in a $420.00 per share deal, leading to an enterprise valuation of $82 billion.  Funding sources haven't been disclosed.

     

    Isn't that called stock price manipulation?Smiley


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy

    Isn't that called stock price manipulation?Smiley

    Not according to the SEC:

    https://www.investor.gov/additional-resources/news-alerts/press-releases/sec-says-social-media-ok-company-announcements-if

     


    --

    2017 991.2 Carrera 4 GTS | GT Silver Metallic - The GT3 Killah!
    2013 Audi S3 | Glacier White


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    bluelines:
    Whoopsy

    Isn't that called stock price manipulation?Smiley

    Not according to the SEC:

    https://www.investor.gov/additional-resources/news-alerts/press-releases/sec-says-social-media-ok-company-announcements-if

     

    There needs to be a disclosure that materially significant material is about to be released.   That wasn't done in advance and there is no evidence of a proposed buyout transaction beyond Musk's numerous  See Reed Hastings' SEC matter for additional details.

    One can be assured that the larger shorts are having legal teams looking into this matter very closely this evening. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla has convertible bonds due this year and early next year

    Tesla stock price is lower than the convertible price

    Tesla is short on cash

    Elon tweet something to prop up the price to above the conversion price

    Tesla avoid spending cash to repay bonds

    Hmm

    That's very fishy,

    Doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots.

    Elon WANTED the stock price to go above $400 to protect the cash on hand for Tesla

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    Tesla has convertible bonds due this year and early next year

    Tesla stock price is lower than the convertible price

    Elon tweet something to prop up the price to above the conversion price

    Tesla avoid spending cash to repay bonds

    Hmm

    That's very fishy,

     

    Exactly, especially when details about the transaction are few beyond using a SPE like in the Fidelity SpaceX funding approach.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    Tesla has convertible bonds due this year and early next year

    Tesla stock price is lower than the convertible price

    Tesla is short on cash

    Elon tweet something to prop up the price to above the conversion price

    Tesla avoid spending cash to repay bonds

    Hmm

    That's very fishy,

    Doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots.

    Elon WANTED the stock price to go above $400 to protect the cash on hand for Tesla

    Yes, it is very fishy. Then again, it is also typical Musk Smiley


    --

    2017 991.2 Carrera 4 GTS | GT Silver Metallic - The GT3 Killah!
    2013 Audi S3 | Glacier White


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Elon Musk letter to employees...

    "Taking Tesla Private"

    7 August 2018

    The following email was sent to Tesla employees today:

    Earlier today, I announced that I’m considering taking Tesla private at a price of $420/share. I wanted to let you know my rationale for this, and why I think this is the best path forward.

    First, a final decision has not yet been made, but the reason for doing this is all about creating the environment for Tesla to operate best. As a public company, we are subject to wild swings in our stock price that can be a major distraction for everyone working at Tesla, all of whom are shareholders. Being public also subjects us to the quarterly earnings cycle that puts enormous pressure on Tesla to make decisions that may be right for a given quarter, but not necessarily right for the long-term. Finally, as the most shorted stock in the history of the stock market, being public means that there are large numbers of people who have the incentive to attack the company.

    I fundamentally believe that we are at our best when everyone is focused on executing, when we can remain focused on our long-term mission, and when there are not perverse incentives for people to try to harm what we’re all trying to achieve.

    This is especially true for a company like Tesla that has a long-term, forward-looking mission. SpaceX is a perfect example: it is far more operationally efficient, and that is largely due to the fact that it is privately held. This is not to say that it will make sense for Tesla to be private over the long-term. In the future, once Tesla enters a phase of slower, more predictable growth, it will likely make sense to return to the public markets.

    Here’s what I envision being private would mean for all shareholders, including all of our employees.

    First, I would like to structure this so that all shareholders have a choice. Either they can stay investors in a private Tesla or they can be bought out at $420 per share, which is a 20% premium over the stock price following our Q2 earnings call (which had already increased by 16%). My hope is for all shareholders to remain, but if they prefer to be bought out, then this would enable that to happen at a nice premium.

    Second, my intention is for all Tesla employees to remain shareholders of the company, just as is the case at SpaceX. If we were to go private, employees would still be able to periodically sell their shares and exercise their options. This would enable you to still share in the growing value of the company that you have all worked so hard to build over time.

    Third, the intention is not to merge SpaceX and Tesla. They would continue to have separate ownership and governance structures. However, the structure envisioned for Tesla is similar in many ways to the SpaceX structure: external shareholders and employee shareholders have an opportunity to sell or buy approximately every six months.

    Finally, this has nothing to do with accumulating control for myself. I own about 20% of the company now, and I don’t envision that being substantially different after any deal is completed.

    Basically, I’m trying to accomplish an outcome where Tesla can operate at its best, free from as much distraction and short-term thinking as possible, and where there is as little change for all of our investors, including all of our employees, as possible.

    This proposal to go private would ultimately be finalized through a vote of our shareholders. If the process ends the way I expect it will, a private Tesla would ultimately be an enormous opportunity for all of us. Either way, the future is very bright and we’ll keep fighting to achieve our mission.

    Thanks, Elon

    Link: https://www.tesla.com/blog/taking-tesla-private


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    "...I'm considering taking Tesla private..."  That phrase at the beginning of the letter is all anyone needs to read to determine the legitimacy of the transaction.   


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I wonder if he is actually the one lending out his shares of Tesla to the shorts

    He is a extremely clever person, if he is not he won't get to where he is today.

    By lending his share out he would be the one collecting the 'rents' and then kill the shorts completely by taking the company private at a elevated share price. Why let banks and other investors profit from his company when he can be the one profiting? I have to admit, he is a couple steps ahead of everyone every time.

    Who would the crazies to lend him the other 60 billion to take Tesla private? That's the bigger question. 

    No single financial institution would be that crazy. Maybe the Saudis?

     

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    More background, this is the primary motive:

    Musk plan to privatize Tesla pushes $2.3 billion of debt above conversion price

    https://reut.rs/2nj8c0f


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    In a way, he is about 10 steps ahead of everyone.

    He knew Tesla would be operated best as a private company, but capital would be a problem, so he took it public and use someone else's money first.

    Now that he got a boat load of suckers, he is taking it private again. With many big shareholders, of whom none would jump ship, the total capital needed to buy out the rest of the shares would be minimized. So it doesn't take too much capital to finish off the deal, maybe 30ish billion. Not unreachable. 

    And after than he remain czar of the company and can do whatever he wants with it.

    Genius.


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    If that is how he planned it from the beginning. Yes, genius kiss


    --

    2017 991.2 Carrera 4 GTS | GT Silver Metallic - The GT3 Killah!
    2013 Audi S3 | Glacier White


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    In a way, he is about 10 steps ahead of everyone.

    He knew Tesla would be operated best as a private company, but capital would be a problem, so he took it public and use someone else's money first.

    Now that he got a boat load of suckers, he is taking it private again. With many big shareholders, of whom none would jump ship, the total capital needed to buy out the rest of the shares would be minimized. So it doesn't take too much capital to finish off the deal, maybe 30ish billion. Not unreachable. 

    And after than he remain czar of the company and can do whatever he wants with it.

    Genius.

    To me it seems very unlikely he would ever find enough stupid private capital to take the company private.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    $420. That’s high. Lol. Sorry, funny number. 

    Yes, he is 10 steps ahead. Perhaps a time traveler?  I continue to enjoy this stock for my day trading hobby.  Sadly I always bail after it hits my conservative targets and then it goes three times further.  I believe the Saudi’s are going in big league.  Call it an oil hedge. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    MKSGR:
    Whoopsy:

    In a way, he is about 10 steps ahead of everyone.

    He knew Tesla would be operated best as a private company, but capital would be a problem, so he took it public and use someone else's money first.

    Now that he got a boat load of suckers, he is taking it private again. With many big shareholders, of whom none would jump ship, the total capital needed to buy out the rest of the shares would be minimized. So it doesn't take too much capital to finish off the deal, maybe 30ish billion. Not unreachable. 

    And after than he remain czar of the company and can do whatever he wants with it.

    Genius.

    To me it seems very unlikely he would ever find enough stupid private capital to take the company private.

     

    Don't underestimate the power of the cult mentality. Many many people have already been brain washed into thinking Tesla is the greatest thing and everyone else is out to get Tesla. 

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Not sure about the boy genius part as today’s business news is filled with the potential of a large lawsuit.  Market manipulation anyone?


     
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