Crown

noone1:

Minority here maybe, but not, you know, in the world of 7B people. In a few years every new car will have these features.

It will be decades before most cars on the road have autopilot features. Which the driver may or may not use. Just like cruise control, 99% of the cars have it but only a small percentage of drivers actually uses it.

Leawood911:

You guys know I’m the long distance driving champ. You can bet your ass that the last thing I would do during a 20 hour drive is turn on cruise control. Of any type. It is lie taking a sleeping pill. I’m not in favor of any type of auto pilot. 

And planes have been landing on their own for 40 plus years. I was on one in Greece 🇬🇷 when I was 12 landing in Corfu. 

As far as I know, this doesn't happen anymore since that accident with Lufthansa(?) when the height wasn't OK (the computer identified a higher height than the plane actually was, so they crashed). Since that time, I think the fully auto landing has been disabled and isn't used anymore (maybe some of the pilots here in the forum can shed some light into it).

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

noone1:

RC:

noone1:

AI has moved insanely fast in even the last few years. We're in the early inning of an AI (r)evolution and it's going to make big gains really quick IMO.

Sure, 100% human level autonomy might be decades away, but "good enough" autonomy probably isn't.

I'm not so sure about it but we'll see. Right now, I don't trust that autonomous stuff too much.

Still think we haven't come very far with AI?

https://giant.gfycat.com/YearlyNewBarb.webm

Tensorflow is certainly interesting but I still think that autonomous driving requires a different type of hardware, not only software.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

For autonomous driving to work properly, it needs redundancy so that if one method didn't work well in a certain situation another method should. I think that is what Mercedes are doing for example when there is fog and the camera is useless in determining what is in the front of the car. In addition, the recent advances in Machine learning and AI from deep learning techniques will revolutionize the way autonomous driving work in the same way it revolutionized other AI domains. The reason for this is that deep learning utilizes neural networks to replicate human intelligence and not the current autonomous drive systems that work by following rules. And deep learning based autonomous drive will learn from the environment of the system, which means for different countries the same system will adapt itself to the traffic rules in each county. However, for deep learning to work, a very large data set is required which means long hours of testing and learning.

The advances in autonomous driving will come from outside the automotive industry. Look at CES2018 and you will see how many companies and researchers are working on this problem. It will not take long for level 3 autonomous drive to become commonly used. Audi has beaten Tesla to it in the new A8, however, its level 3 is only limited to 60km/h. It also the first car to use LIDAR which helps greatly in detecting surrounding objects and depth. 

What many might not know is that Tesla's self driving capabilities are actually worst that they were 3 years ago, because they no longer use the Mobileye systems in their newer cars. 

Some here are asking for a perfect autonomous driving system. But it only needs to be statistically better than humans to become mainstream. I have yet to see any study on this but we might not be as far to that threshold than some infer where.

I drive 300 miles a week with various auto cruise control systems enabled, you simply still have to be attentive because of you don’t you will get in trouble. That said, as posted above, using these systems I allow myself to use the phone more than I should for very short uses, so the benefits might actually vanish...

The level 3 autonomous system on the A8 is the first systems that do not require the driver's attention. 

noone1:

Beta is ideal for cars.........

Porsche ran their IMS Beta program for 10 years

964C2:

noone1:

Beta is ideal for cars.........

Porsche ran their IMS Beta program for 10 years

Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Maserati ran their beta programs from the earliest days of their founding to the late 1990s.

AP911:

For autonomous driving to work properly, it needs redundancy so that if one method didn't work well in a certain situation another method should. I think that is what Mercedes are doing for example when there is fog and the camera is useless in determining what is in the front of the car. In addition, the recent advances in Machine learning and AI from deep learning techniques will revolutionize the way autonomous driving work in the same way it revolutionized other AI domains. The reason for this is that deep learning utilizes neural networks to replicate human intelligence and not the current autonomous drive systems that work by following rules. And deep learning based autonomous drive will learn from the environment of the system, which means for different countries the same system will adapt itself to the traffic rules in each county. However, for deep learning to work, a very large data set is required which means long hours of testing and learning.

The advances in autonomous driving will come from outside the automotive industry. Look at CES2018 and you will see how many companies and researchers are working on this problem. It will not take long for level 3 autonomous drive to become commonly used. Audi has beaten Tesla to it in the new A8, however, its level 3 is only limited to 60km/h. It also the first car to use LIDAR which helps greatly in detecting surrounding objects and depth. 

What many might not know is that Tesla's self driving capabilities are actually worst that they were 3 years ago, because they no longer use the Mobileye systems in their newer cars. 

Yeah, that redundant system is called human driver. 

There could be a silver lining in self driving tech, maybe then those idiots cruising in the left lane will finally start to move over to the right lane if it's the auto-mode that is driving.

BTW  http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-wozniak-rants-against-elon-musk-and-tesla-2018-1

⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS

I still stand firm on the opinion that the autonomous driving tech needs not only to have cameras and sensors in the cars but also in the roads, street signs, street lights and similar stuff along common driving routes. This is the only way to make autonomous driving safe(r). I would also install sensors and "beacons" in normal cars, which would add to the safety for autonomous driving. All cars should be somehow "networked", this would make driving even safer.

I'm afraid however that we still don't have the tech for that right now and I am talking hardware (incl. for example the necessary wireless tech/bandwidth and whatever) here. 

I am no expert though but all the current solutions seem more like "intentions" and "wishful thinking" than reliable tech. 

Tesla has come far but looking at what Audi, VW and others are working on right now, I think that Tesla is a bit overhyped. I know we discussed this before and I don't want to start another Tesla vs. the world or vice versa discussion but so far, I don't see autonomous driving tech making a major breakthrough in the car industry. Even if some luxury cars in the higher price range may have this tech in a couple of years, this doesn't mean it is going to be successful. 

It will change with the introduction into the middle and lower class cars but this will take a lot of time...

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

https://insideevs.com/the-woz-no-longer-believes-anything-elon-musk-or-tesla-says/

RC:

I still stand firm on the opinion that the autonomous driving tech needs not only to have cameras and sensors in the cars but also in the roads, street signs, street lights and similar stuff along common driving routes.

 

 Exactly! We are far away from being safe autonomously. But hey - it might be much easier for a high way as within the city. And in the long distance you might really love the comfort of being "driven". In the city - its easy to drive yourself, who needs autonomous driven cars in the city? Yes I know - the future Taxi and "not owning a car yourself generation". 

Well...what did I say?

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-apple-trail-self-driving-pack-study/

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

The new A8 is the first to offer level 3 autonomous drive. Hopefully in a year or two they can increase the speed limit of the level 3 from 60km/h to proper highway speeds. But they are the leaders of the pack. 

I guess we all know now why no larger car manufacturer wanted to buy Tesla... 

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

The only advantage that Tesla current have is the Superchargers network. 

How so many people think there is nothing more advanced than a Tesla and its interior is beyond me 

Still, I'm actually looking forward towards getting the Model 3 hopefully by the end of the year. 

AP911:

The new A8 is the first to offer level 3 autonomous drive. Hopefully in a year or two they can increase the speed limit of the level 3 from 60km/h to proper highway speeds. But they are the leaders of the pack. 

I know that Audi claims that but from what I do see, my Volvo and the Tesla is going further. So not sure about. 

The limit to 60 km/h is because of regulations. All other vendors are doing the same until 30km/h. Above that - only the A8, the new Volvos and the Tesla can drive 15sec without touching the wheel. I usually just have lightly my hand on it and let car do the steering job. Nevertheless, I always are aware what is going on. 

But the Volvo and Tesla are still level 2, meaning the driving should be paying attention. That's the beauty of level 3, you can take a quick nap 

Lars997:

AP911:

The new A8 is the first to offer level 3 autonomous drive. Hopefully in a year or two they can increase the speed limit of the level 3 from 60km/h to proper highway speeds. But they are the leaders of the pack. 

I know that Audi claims that but from what I do see, my Volvo and the Tesla is going further. So not sure about. 

The limit to 60 km/h is because of regulations. All other vendors are doing the same until 30km/h. Above that - only the A8, the new Volvos and the Tesla can drive 15sec without touching the wheel. I usually just have lightly my hand on it and let car do the steering job. Nevertheless, I always are aware what is going on. 

 I thought that Drive Me is a project, not something Volvo already offers in series production cars? 

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

AP911:

The only advantage that Tesla current have is the Superchargers network. 

How so many people think there is nothing more advanced than a Tesla and its interior is beyond me 

Still, I'm actually looking forward towards getting the Model 3 hopefully by the end of the year. 

Maybe I missed something but who else makes a luxury full EV sedan or SUV AWD or RWD with 300 miles range?

Who else in the same segments beats 0-60 performance of the Teslas?

Who else offers over the air car updates?

Who else offers a modern interesting interior?

Who else offers the level of service for the vehicles except ultra luxury brands?

Who else offers a seemless buying experience with no dealer and price haggling?

Many Tesla haters here but you dont really think they are the top sellers at their segment by just making bad cars, do you?

"Tesla Logs Zero Driverless Miles in California in 2017"

(2 February 2018)

The California Department of Motor Vehicles has released its annual report on autonomous vehicle technology, and Tesla Inc is nowhere to be found. According to the report, General Motors Co and Alphabet (Google) AVs logged nearly half a million miles on California public roads in 2017, while Tesla AVs failed log a single mile.

Alphabet subsidiary Waymo appears to be leading the AV race in terms of driving miles and valuable data collection. California reported that Waymo vehicles traveled 352,545 miles on California roads last year and have now accumulated nearly 1 million total miles in the past two years. The DMV reported only 63 instances in which Waymo's human drivers needed to disengage autonomous control in 2017.

GM vehicles traveled a total of 131,676 miles on California roads this year after traveling less than 10,000 total miles in 2016. General Motors reported a total of 105 disengagements and 22 accidents on the year.

Conspicuous by its absence among the top AV companies was Tesla, which logged zero autonomous miles on California public roads in 2017. The company says it is performing off-road simulations, testing AVs in locations outside of California and collecting data from customer-owned vehicles that are not fully autonomous.

Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made headlines this week after his tunnel drilling company The Boring Company sold $10 million in flamethrowers in four days.

Earlier this month, Navigant Research listed Tesla last among 19 auto companies developing AV technology. Not surprisingly, Navigant named GM and Waymo as the current leaders of the AV technology race.

"The autopilot system on current products has stagnated and, in many respects, regressed since it was first launched in late 2015," Navigant says of Tesla's technology. "More than one year after launching V2, Autopilot still lacks some of the functionality of the original, and there are many anecdotal reports from owners of unpredictable behavior."

Tesla's previous version of Autopilot was powered by technology from Intel Corp subsidiary Mobileye, but Tesla cut ties with Mobileye in 2016.

Other auto experts also say Tesla's Autopilot technology has taken a step backward. In September, Bernstein analyst Max Warburton said the new Autopilot 2.0 has less functionality than the original Mobileye version had.

"While Tesla has many advantages, we believe its self-driving capabilities are exaggerated," Warburton said.

Bernstein has a "market perform" rating and $265 target for TSLA stock.

Link: https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/articles/2018-02-02/tesla-inc-tsla-stock

Over the air updating is one of Tesla’s most hyped advantages.  If Tesla completely developed a car, instead of treating customers as beta testers, it wouldn’t be needed.  

Hmm, Tesla is the only game in town in most of their segments.............for the time being.

No1 in a field of 1 means absolutely nothing.

The only segment they are in that actually has a competition is the entry level EV car, in that field, they are getting badly beaten by the GM offerings.

And if we group them with mainstream segments comparing them to gas powered cars too,

The Model X is extremely over priced in the minivan segment compared to Honda Odyssey, Toyota Sienna, etc. And the Japanese offerings have a much nicer interior. Think the Korean KIA minivan also have a nicer interior too. But the Model X is quite a bit step up from the Grand Caravan that's for sure. Still not quite up to Chrysler Pacifica standard though for American made cars. But it is quite a bit snappier that's for sure. And the AWD system is only matched by the Toyota Sienna.

The Model S, again, the interior is extremely far behind the German offerings of 5 series, E-class, A6s, especially they are of the same price category. Think even Cadillac offered better interior quality. AWD is not a stand out feature in this segment anymore, but the Tesla is still quite a bit snappier than anything in that mid size market. 

SciFrog:

AP911:

The only advantage that Tesla current have is the Superchargers network. 

How so many people think there is nothing more advanced than a Tesla and its interior is beyond me 

Still, I'm actually looking forward towards getting the Model 3 hopefully by the end of the year. 

Maybe I missed something but who else makes a luxury full EV sedan or SUV AWD or RWD with 300 miles range?

Who else in the same segments beats 0-60 performance of the Teslas?

Who else offers over the air car updates?

Who else offers a modern interesting interior?

Who else offers the level of service for the vehicles except ultra luxury brands?

Who else offers a seemless buying experience with no dealer and price haggling?

Many Tesla haters here but you dont really think they are the top sellers at their segment by just making bad cars, do you?

Old cars, Model S, X feel old already. And the Model 3 will be old before it hits the road in significant numbers 

P.S.: I am just teasing you but somehow I feel a bit like the Tesla's feel like old cars a bit that need a replacement to keep fresh soon 

Whoopsy:

The Model S, again, the interior is extremely far behind the German offerings of 5 series, E-class, A6s, especially they are of the same price category. Think even Cadillac offered better interior quality. AWD is not a stand out feature in this segment anymore, but the Tesla is still quite a bit snappier than anything in that mid size market. 

 

I agree 100% - the interior of this car (and also the ride quality) is really poor. For that price range it is even a joke 

MKSGR:

Whoopsy:

The Model S, again, the interior is extremely far behind the German offerings of 5 series, E-class, A6s, especially they are of the same price category. Think even Cadillac offered better interior quality. AWD is not a stand out feature in this segment anymore, but the Tesla is still quite a bit snappier than anything in that mid size market. 

 

I agree 100% - the interior of this car (and also the ride quality) is really poor. For that price range it is even a joke 

That’s your opinion. 5,000 people a month think quite different. You are all missing the real point: it doesn’t have to be THE BEST. It just needs to be good enough. Plus let’s not forget that the model S is an old car by now and still no other cars come close to it as a full package.

Tesla is top contender in a field one one, but they created that field, without them EV cars would come 10 years later than they are happening now.

SciFrog:

MKSGR:

Whoopsy:

The Model S, again, the interior is extremely far behind the German offerings of 5 series, E-class, A6s, especially they are of the same price category. Think even Cadillac offered better interior quality. AWD is not a stand out feature in this segment anymore, but the Tesla is still quite a bit snappier than anything in that mid size market. 

 

I agree 100% - the interior of this car (and also the ride quality) is really poor. For that price range it is even a joke 

That’s your opinion. 5,000 people a month think quite different. You are all missing the real point: it doesn’t have to be THE BEST. It just needs to be good enough. Plus let’s not forget that the model S is an old car by now and still no other cars come close to it as a full package.

Tesla is top contender in a field one one, but they created that field, without them EV cars would come 10 years later than they are happening now.

This we should give them credit for and also having the balls to offer autopilot even though it wasn't safe enough. 

I wouldn't categorize people here as Tesla haters though, its just those drunk on Elon's Kool Aid get too offended whenever someone doesn't like their beloved Tesla and I am not referring to anyone here 

Autopilot is safe, users are dumb. Autopilot is no more dangerous that cruise control. Use either of them wrong and you're in trouble.

Now there’s a marketing slogan: “Tesla, not the best, just good enough.”