Rennteam 2.0 - EN - Forum - Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend... - Page3

Nov 10, 2007 4:42:06 PM

thuggy: Veteran; Loc: PA & CA , United States; Posts: 834, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 22, 2006; Reply to: nberry

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Death bell on the USD has not been rung yet... interesting view point...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aNX6p2PojYMc&refer=home

Next
Threads

Nov 10, 2007 4:53:49 PM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: nberry

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

You are incorrect. The Fed was created in 1913, 16 years before the Great Depression. It fact it is often argued that the Fed was responsible for the Depression.

The Fed will be powerless this time, because it's not a credit crisis, it's a trust crisis. Banks have stopped lending because they don't trust anyone, not even themselves. Not even the Fed, which has demonstrated a troubling lack of independence when it bent to pressure from Wall Street and slashed rates repeatedly.

Regarding P/Es: wait for the write-downs. What we have witnessed so far is only the beginning. Losses on 2003+ mortgages may reach 50% on average. The apparently low prices are not because the current valuation is overly pessimistic, but because earnings are overstated.

Citi and AIG are trading at a 9.0 P/E (worse than GM, which is arguably a basket case) for a reason. Citi is virtually bankrupt already (SIV = Enron way of concealing losses). AIG and the insurance/pension sector as a whole have hundreds of billions of worthless CDOs in their books.

In fact retail banks, insurance companies and pension funds were among the biggest buyers of junior CDO tranches early this year, although it had become apparent that the horse had already left the stable. They desperately needed the promised return, and willingly ignored the risk.

Next
Threads

Nov 10, 2007 5:08:54 PM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: thuggy

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Quote:
thuggy said:
Death bell on the USD has not been rung yet... interesting view point...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aNX6p2PojYMc&refer=home

The author missed the point. The current financial crisis is a trust crisis.

Because Europe does not have a single government nor a single army, the only thing backing the euro is the trustworthiness of the ECB.

Mr Trichet has demonstrated a superb independence from politicians and moneyed interests in its monetary policy. Foreign investors trust Mr Trichet. They don't trust Mr Bernanke. That's what makes the euro a safe haven from the dollar turmoil. If Mr Bernanke does not pull a Volcker very soon, it will be too late to stop the dollar collapse.

Next
Threads

Nov 10, 2007 7:22:57 PM

rhino: Rennteam Pro; Loc: Island , Saint Lucia; Posts: 2875, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 26, 2006; Reply to: Modrocket_stereo

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

looks nicer here IMO

Next
Threads

Nov 10, 2007 7:49:45 PM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: rhino

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

I read about that new paint, too!

For those that missed it, Nissan has developed a magnetic paint that changes color when you press a button.

But will it become a production option? Wait and see.

Next
Threads

Nov 10, 2007 8:05:45 PM

thuggy: Veteran; Loc: PA & CA , United States; Posts: 834, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 22, 2006; Reply to: The Groom

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

The resilency of the US market it recognize mistakes price in,hit bottom and move on... Merrill didn't follow and did not recognize the hit with Q3 earnings and O'Neil is out largely because of it... Citi did not recognize either and now Prince is out... Alwaleed plainly said as much in his interview... He did not trust Prince anymore.

So we'll take the pain for the next 12 to 18 months... players will go out business and life will go on. The difference in the 20 year recession in Japan is that banks did not recognize issues and therefore could not move on.

Next
Threads

Nov 10, 2007 9:07:22 PM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: thuggy

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

I agree with you that taking the hit is the best thing to do. Problem is, it's what we should have done in 2001. Mr Greenspan's decision to open the liquidity gates is what brought us in those dire straights.

No matter how hard the try, bubbles always burst. The longer we wait, the worse the recession. That's our problem in fact. We waited too long.

Next
Threads

Nov 11, 2007 5:07:08 PM

nberry: Rennteam VIP; Loc: La Jolla, USA , United States; Posts: 13737, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 11, 2002; Reply to: The Groom

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

MY bad; the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 but revamped during the Roosevelt post Depression era. The Agency was given the tools to avoid future meltdowns as occurred in 1929.

A P/E of 9 is bad?

Next
Threads

Nov 12, 2007 12:18:13 AM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: nberry

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

9 is very bad. The historical average since 1900 is 14 - and there have been a few anni horribiles in the lot.

Basket cases like GM and Ford are around 10. General Electric is 18. Procter & Gamble is 22.

Next
Threads

Nov 12, 2007 4:45:28 PM

nberry: Rennteam VIP; Loc: La Jolla, USA , United States; Posts: 13737, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 11, 2002; Reply to: The Groom

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Quote:
The Groom said:
9 is very bad. The historical average since 1900 is 14 - and there have been a few anni horribiles in the lot.

Basket cases like GM and Ford are around 10. General Electric is 18. Procter & Gamble is 22.

Talk to any seasoned trader and ALL will tell you a P/E of 9 is great. Your better off buying a stock with a P/E 9 than 18 or 35.

Next
Threads

Nov 12, 2007 5:34:20 PM

vinnie: Veteran; Loc: Australia , Australia; Posts: 1005, Gallery; Registered on: Feb 25, 2005; Reply to: nberry

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Quote:
nberry said:
Quote:
The Groom said:
9 is very bad. The historical average since 1900 is 14 - and there have been a few anni horribiles in the lot.

Basket cases like GM and Ford are around 10. General Electric is 18. Procter & Gamble is 22.

Talk to any seasoned trader and ALL will tell you a P/E of 9 is great. Your better off buying a stock with a P/E 9 than 18 or 35.

You are right, usually the lower the PE ratio the better the value and "safer" the investment.
When the PE ratio is over say 18-20 it is starting to get overvalued.

Next
Threads

Nov 12, 2007 6:35:53 PM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: nberry

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Quote:
nberry said:
Talk to any seasoned trader and ALL will tell you a P/E of 9 is great. Your better off buying a stock with a P/E 9 than 18 or 35.

You clearly misunderstand what the P/E ratio is. It's NOT a measure of whether a stock is cheap or expensive. It's a measure of anticipated earning growth.

The most important - and most overlooked - thing about the P/E ratio is that its numerator is forward-looking (current market cap = expectations of future earnings), whereas its divisor is backward-looking (last published earnings).

A low P/E means that the market anticipates that future earnings will be much lower than last year's.

Sometimes, the market is wrong - that's how Mr Buffett made his fortune. But sometimes, the market is right, and the company is really going under. Thing is, you cannot tell only by looking at the P/E.

Next
Threads

Nov 12, 2007 7:12:10 PM

nberry: Rennteam VIP; Loc: La Jolla, USA , United States; Posts: 13737, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 11, 2002; Reply to: The Groom

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Quote:
The Groom said:
Quote:
nberry said:
Talk to any seasoned trader and ALL will tell you a P/E of 9 is great. Your better off buying a stock with a P/E 9 than 18 or 35.

You clearly misunderstand what the P/E ratio is. It's NOT a measure of whether a stock is cheap or expensive. It's a measure of anticipated earning growth.

The most important - and most overlooked - thing about the P/E ratio is that its numerator is forward-looking (current market cap = expectations of future earnings), whereas its divisor is backward-looking (last published earnings).

A low P/E means that the market anticipates that future earnings will be much lower than last year's.

Sometimes, the market is wrong - that's how Mr Buffett made his fortune. But sometimes, the market is right, and the company is really going under. Thing is, you cannot tell only by looking at the P/E.

I have not misunderstood P/E. Though I agree earnings are measure of stock value/performance, they are not the only measure. Thus good earnings do not necessarily translate to high evaluations.

P/E is meant to reflect the balance between present earnings and stock value. If earnings are low and price is high, it should caution the investor to look closer at the balance sheet and the company as a whole This clearly was demonstrated during the Dot Com Bust.

Bottom line is, if I am trying to decide between two stocks, the one with the lower P/E is, at least to me, is much more attractive.

Next
Threads

Nov 12, 2007 9:43:28 PM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: nberry

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Quote:
nberry said:
Bottom line is, if I am trying to decide between two stocks, the one with the lower P/E is, at least to me, is much more attractive.

That's the "common knowledge" about P/E. Except it is completely wrong. The only case where this is true is when you are absolutely positive that the earning growth of both companies will be identical.

Which basically never happens.

To put P/E in a nutshell, it tells you is which company the market thinks is a winner, and which the market thinks is a loser. It does not tell you whether the market is right or wrong. It is up to you to do your own homework.

Here are a few examples:

With a P/E of 10, GM is IMHO grossly overvalued, because the company is a basket case. The company has nowhere to go but Chapter 11. The stock has nowhere to go but down.
Despite its low P/E, it's a very speculative stock: you will absolutely, definitely lose money in a buy and hold strategy. The only wait to make money on GM stock (except shorting it

) is to speculate on a dead cat bounce.

A stock with P/E of 35 might be undervalued, or it might be overvalued. It all depends on longt-term earning growth. Thing is, you'll only know if it was a good buy after the fact, once the earning anticipation have materialized (or not).
Such a stock is not necessarily speculative. Its high price might be justified by a documented high earning growth.

While a stock with P/E of 100 is very likely to be wildly overvalued, there is still a remote possibility that the valuation is correct. Granted, it's a very long shot.

Next
Threads

Nov 12, 2007 10:22:34 PM

JimFlat6: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Cave , United States; Posts: 8633, Gallery; Registered on: Jul 25, 2004; Reply to: The Groom

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

GM is in transition. Its products are increasing in quality and it has spent billions on new technologies that will give its products increased value in the market place.

Even now, without those technologies at play in the market, it is very successful in some key high growth markets.

GM will survive and its shares will increase in value over the long term.

Over reliance on statistical analysis and ignorance from lack of knowledge about product developments and thier future in the marketplace is a recipe for missing good opportunities to buy low and sell high.

Do not assume to assume!

Next
Threads

Nov 13, 2007 12:40:57 AM

The Groom: Expert; Loc: EU; Posts: 1779, Gallery; Registered on: Jan 23, 2005; Reply to: JimFlat6

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

GM is burdened by a dysfunctional corporate culture, and by "legacy costs". Even if Hillarycare happened tomorrow, its corporate culture dooms the company.

GM = buy low, sell even lower.

Next
Threads

Nov 13, 2007 3:21:39 AM

JimFlat6: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Cave , United States; Posts: 8633, Gallery; Registered on: Jul 25, 2004; Reply to: The Groom

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

GM is doomed by their "corporate culture?" How so?

How do you justify claiming that viz a viz thier current management team, products and customer market forces?

Next
Threads

Nov 13, 2007 2:22:37 PM

Friscorays: Junior; Loc: TX; Posts: 148, Gallery; Registered on: Jun 20, 2005; Reply to: JimFlat6

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Wow did this thread ever go off the rails! I'm confused as to how the Federal reserve, P/E ratios and the fate of GM relate to the Nissan GTR (but please don't try to explain as my head may explode).

I can't figure out which cars people considering the GTR will cross shop. I doubt the average Porsche enthusiast will really be interested (other than as an addition and not a replacement). I guess it is more in the Corvette Z06 and M3 category. Although, I don't like the GTR looks, I think I'd prefer the Nissan to these two choices based on performance and technology.

Next
Threads

Nov 13, 2007 2:49:57 PM

thuggy: Veteran; Loc: PA & CA , United States; Posts: 834, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 22, 2006; Reply to: JimFlat6

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

I think this thread might win the prize for most off original topic... but until anyone actually gets to drive a GTR in real world...

P/E is simply a ratio and should not be looked upon simply in isolation as an indicator of either cheapness or impending business failure. You need to know the underlying fundamentals. Forgetting fundamentals is at the root of the current failure... one market fundamental is markets don't always go up, they will eventually come down, be ready for it. Even Angelo Mozilo... Head of Countrywide has been saying that for a while.

Maybe, lending to someone with no equity, who has bad credit and will not let you verify how much they make is a bad thing. Relying on S&P and Moodys, to do all of your analysis and due diligence for you is probably just begging for trouble, especially since it's a known issue that they can be gamed and were.

There were hedge fund managers who know nothing about credit betting ABX movements... follow Buffets example... stick to your knitting... another fundamental. I'm not in the camp blaming Greenspan for this... I think he and Bernake are very right in saying the Fed is not to blame... in a free market economy... all players have the responsibility to work diligently and not give into "IRRATIONAL exuberance". Unfortunately we are all now paying for the excesses of a few who forgot the fundamentals. These are the times that teach the most... okay.. off soap box now...

Top
Threads

Board	Subject	Last post	Views	Replies
Porsche	SUN'S LAST RUN TO WILSON, WY - 991 C2S CAB LIFE, END OF AN ERA (Part II)	5/15/24 8:44 AM art.italy	803204	1808
Porsche	Welcome to Rennteam: Cars and Coffee... (photos)	4/7/24 11:48 AM Boxster Coupe GTS	448562	565
Porsche	OFFICIAL: Porsche 911 (992) GT3 RS - 2022	3/12/24 8:28 AM DJM48	266121	323
Porsche	The new Macan: the first all-electric SUV from Porsche	1/30/24 9:18 AM RC	90058	45
Porsche	OFFICIAL: Taycan 2024 Facelift	3/15/24 1:23 PM CGX car nut	6588	50
Porsche	The moment I've been waiting for...	2/1/24 7:01 PM Pilot	885700	1364
Porsche	992 GT3	7/23/23 7:01 PM Grant	833254	3868
Porsche	GT4RS	4/21/24 11:50 AM mcdelaug	399600	1454
Porsche	Welcome to the new Taycan Forum!	2/10/24 4:43 PM nberry	395804	1526
Others	Tesla 2 the new thread	12/13/23 2:48 PM CGX car nut	382691	2401
Porsche	Donor vehicle for Singer Vehicle Design	7/3/23 12:30 PM Porker	370845	797
Porsche	Red Nipples 991.2 GT3 Touring on tour	5/12/24 6:23 PM blueflame	293489	669
Porsche	Collected my 997 GTS today	10/19/23 7:06 PM CGX car nut	265613	812
Lambo	Huracán EVO STO	7/30/23 6:59 PM mcdelaug	243960	346
Lotus	Lotus Emira	6/25/23 2:53 PM Enmanuel	238582	101
Others	Corvette C8	10/16/23 3:24 PM Enmanuel	222236	488
Others	Gordon Murray - T.50	11/22/23 10:27 AM mcdelaug	173074	387
Porsche	Back to basics - 996 GT3 RS	6/11/23 5:13 PM CGX car nut	144909	144
BMW M	2024 BMW M3 CS Official Now	12/29/23 9:04 AM RC	121066	303
Motor Sp.	2023 Formula One	12/19/23 5:38 AM Whoopsy	111590	685
Porsche	2022 992 Safari Model	3/7/24 4:22 PM Whoopsy	85596	239
AMG	Mercedes-Benz W124 500E aka Porsche typ 2758	2/23/24 10:03 PM blueflame	75813	297
Porsche	992 GT3 RS	3/3/24 7:22 PM Whoopsy	54860	314
Motor Sp.	Porsche 963	5/14/24 7:53 AM Porker	26429	247
Ferrari	Ferrari 296 GTB (830PS, Hybrid V6)	1/21/24 4:29 PM GT-Boy	21715	103
BMW M	2022 BMW M5 CS	4/8/24 1:43 PM Ferdie	20163	140
AMG	G63 sold out	9/15/23 7:38 PM Nico997	17083	120
AMG	[2022] Mercedes-AMG SL	4/23/24 1:24 PM RC	14431	225
Motor Sp.	24-Hour race Nürburgring 2018	5/25/23 10:42 PM Grant	11520	55
Porsche	Porsche Mission X Hypercar	12/3/23 8:52 AM 996FourEss	11194	63

Crown

Forum - Thread

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Re: GTR Review by Motor Trend...

Forum

Boards