CloseSciFrog:If Nick read the numbers like he claims he most likely has lost a lot trading TSLA...
Last time I traded TSLA the price was well below $100.
And I never short anything. I am in the stock market to make decent money and keep me busy, not there to make a killing. Sky is the limit on loses shorting stuff. (Not into option trading either)
Nov 20, 2017 12:48:27 AM
Nov 20, 2017 12:58:23 AM
Whether it was planned or not, the fact of the matter is that he showed a car in physical driving form that definitely would have taken quite a while to produce. They didn't just whip this up in two weeks and 3d print the whole thing. It's obvious that a lot of work has already been going on regarding this car and maybe they decided to show it now for some good PR buzz.
Nov 20, 2017 1:41:41 AM
Too much of these worries about production are due to the huge amount of investment and the numbers game which becomes irresistible. The stock has been wagging the dog for too long. The thing to keep in mind is that Tesla has been around and making cars for a while now. There is no reason to suspect they can't meet or exceed production numbers. If that becomes their main focus. As a complete outsider looking at this very informative thread I tend to still come away very impressed by Tesla and unlikely to go bankrupt. Are they worth their price? That is what the market says.
Nov 20, 2017 1:51:54 AM
Nov 20, 2017 2:35:59 AM
Leawood911:Too much of these worries about production are due to the huge amount of investment and the numbers game which becomes irresistible. The stock has been wagging the dog for too long. The thing to keep in mind is that Tesla has been around and making cars for a while now. There is no reason to suspect they can't meet or exceed production numbers. If that becomes their main focus. As a complete outsider looking at this very informative thread I tend to still come away very impressed by Tesla and unlikely to go bankrupt. Are they worth their price? That is what the market says.
Yes, I think that is a reasonable view. These discussions seem to get polarized between those who see Tesla as having almost infinite upside potential because they are the only ones who see the future, and those who argue they are a scam which will quickly end in tears. There is an intermediate view, which is that Tesla have genuinely created an interesting and to many people valuable electric vehicle range (the product), AND that their current market value is unreasonably high even accepting the merits of their product. Of course, I never thought Bitcoin would go so high either.... come to think of it, maybe that is Elon’s next venture?
2017 Range Rover Sport S/C, 2009 Porsche 911S
Tesla is making a good product right now, it doesn't need to be unreasonably hyped.
The cars can sell themselves even without Elon saying a word.
Are the valuation too high? Absolutely, but Elon has to keep it up there to support the debt. Or else the whole house is gonna come crashing down. That would be a pity.
Is the Model 3 the answer to Tesla's cashflow problem? I don't think so. There is very little margin to be had.
I much prefer they go full steam into the trucking industry, they have the upper hand right there. No other competition are even close to having something comparable. It will be a monopoly for them for a good while, unlike the passenger car market. Hell they could use the truck platform and do buses. Tesla can corner that public transit market too.
Electric propulsion is extremely suitable for buses and trucking. Those need really good low end torque which electric motors can provide, ultimate top speed and HP doesn't matter in those games. And the heavy load makes regeneration braking a perfect fit to recover energy. And range won't even be an issue for city buses.
--
There is almost like a parallel on Tesla and Germany in WW2.
Germany made the first move, just like Tesla.
Nazi war plans are super ambitious, just like Tesla's business cases/plans.
But in the end it's one country against the world, one company against the whole industry. Tesla is worth a inflated 50billion, VW group will spend 82 billions, a sum that's worth more than the whole Tesla company. And we having even count other auto makers, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes, BMW, etc. The whole industry is already out spending Tesla by a wide margin.
Elon needs to know he won the battle, but the war will not be his to win. But Tesla WILL survive as a car maker IF they don't waste unnecessary capital.
Whoopsy:Tesla is making a good product right now, it doesn't need to be unreasonably hyped.
The cars can sell themselves even without Elon saying a word.
Are the valuation too high? Absolutely,
One of the (very) few wise things Trump once said was that he could not understand the rumors about the Virgin Airline guy (Branson) that claim his big fortune. With airlines, he said, nobody ever got rich.
The same applies to cars. Cars will never be the business to make huge money from, except you have a huge car producer. It is all about scale. Margins in the car business are like they are. Profitability in the car business will never justify sustainable share price phantasies 
It is also impossible to look at Apple as a benchmark model: there are millions of people who pay a 10,20,30 percent premium on a phone. But there may be some 10.000 who will accept such a premium on a car.
In summary, cars (or solar panels) will never create huge shareholder value. Only in the bubble.
SciFrog:But isn't that hat Musk has been doing all along? Takes dream and try to make them come true? He as become a billionaire doing it and single handedly revolutionized two industries... Sorry but you can criticize all you want, none of us here come close to what he has achieved...
True but to rise, you have to fail first. Probably a reason why I haven't risen yet... 
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
The model Y will be Tesla cash cow. The lack of mention of this model here to me shows people are just arguing for the sake of arguing and just look at the next 18-24 months and not beyond.
The model Y will be vastly based on the model 3 and will sell at a higher price with higher margins. Heck Tesla might be totally fine if they don’t make money with the model 3 as long as they sell enough model Y, which is what people really want to buy now as the sedan industry is slowly but surely dying. So when you look at the massive cash burn of ramping up the model 3 production, you have to apply a discount because a chunk of it will be used for the model Y.
The pessimistic people here think Tesla will crash and burn before the model Y will add significant revenue, if there is one thing Musk has been good at it is to manage high expectations vs delays and there is no reason to think the next 3 years would be different.
And then that does not even account for the solar roof (too expensive for now though) but more importantly the PowerWall. As better prices slides down, there is a point where this will be a must have in all upper middle class home...
They actually should have done the Model Y first. SUVs are where all the money is and SUVs are what benefit most from efficiency gains and torque. I really don't know why they didn't do it first. Hell, I think they should have launched with an EV SUV before the Model S too.
That is a very good question Noone, ask myself that for a long time. Maybe:
- it is earlier to build a sedan
- sedan still outsell crossovers
- Tesla fell they can wait and didn’t HAVE to have the Y before the 3
- Tesla is working on some special ideas for the Y but needed the 3 to be out first to validate the platform...
Nov 20, 2017 5:17:11 PM
Nov 20, 2017 9:18:12 PM
MKSGR:Whoopsy:I much prefer they go full steam into the trucking industry,
They would not even need to change the suspension setup of the Model S - drives fine for a truck
The problem with truckers is that they would never be caught dead attending an Elon unveil show and going “ooh, aaah...”, and trucking companies will look only at hard numbers, not promises.
2017 Range Rover Sport S/C, 2009 Porsche 911S
Here is some mind boggling number for Tesla.
They are losing $8,000 a minute, $480k an hour, $11.52mil a day(24hrs) , $345.6mil a month and finally over a billion a quarter.
They are also at the 70% mark of their revolving credit line. highest point ever in their company history.
In a way, they are quite tapped out financially, they could do bonds again but the initial ones are underwater, and Elon doesn't want to dilute his shares either with stock offering, hence the need to release a vapor ware Roadster to gather some interest free loans.
Nov 22, 2017 10:14:54 AM
Whoopsy:Here is some mind boggling number for Tesla.
They are losing $8,000 a minute, $480k an hour, $11.52mil a day(24hrs) , $345.6mil a month and finally over a billion a quarter.
They are also at the 70% mark of their revolving credit line. highest point ever in their company history.
In a way, they are quite tapped out financially, they could do bonds again but the initial ones are underwater, and Elon doesn't want to dilute his shares either with stock offering, hence the need to release a vapor ware Roadster to gather some interest free loans.
...indeed...
Tesla’s Burning Through Nearly Half a Million Dollars Every Hour
By this calculation, Tesla would exhaust cash on Aug. 6
Company says it has ample money to meet its production targets
Tesla CEO Elon Musk surprised fans unveiling a new Roadster sports car at the company’s design studio.
Elon Musk said last week that Tesla Inc. is designing a new sports car that could go from zero to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds. Not bad, but here’s a speed number that investors might want to focus on instead:
Over the past 12 months, the electric-car maker has been burning money at a clip of about $8,000 a minute (or $480,000 an hour), Bloomberg data show. At this pace, the company is on track to exhaust its current cash pile on Monday, Aug. 6. (At 2:17am New York time, if you really want to be precise.)
To be fair, few Tesla watchers expect the cash burn to continue at quite such a breakneck pace, and the company itself says it’s ramping up output of its all-important Model 3, which will bring money in the door. Investors don’t seem concerned. Tesla shares rose almost 3 percent to $317.81 Tuesday, giving it a market capitalization of $53 billion. Ford Motor Company is worth $48 billion.
But still, its need for fresh cash came into high relief last week when Musk unveiled his latest plan to raise funds. He’s asking customers to pay him upfront to order vehicles that may not be delivered for years.
The Founders Series Roadster will cost buyers a $250,000 down payment even though it’s not coming for more than two years. Orders of those cars are capped at 1,000, meaning they alone could generate $250 million. Tesla is charging a total of $50,000 for reservations of the regular Roadster. Companies can also pre-order electric Semi trucks for $5,000 though they don’t go into production until 2019.
But all this is a pittance compared with Tesla’s financial needs. It’s blowing through more than $1 billion a quarter thanks to massive investment in making the Model 3, a $35,000 car that’s looking less likely to generate a return anytime soon.
“Whether they can last another 10 months or a year, he needs money, and quickly,” said Kevin Tynan, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, who estimates Tesla will be required to raise at least $2 billion in fresh capital by mid-2018.
Tesla has said it has ample money to meet its target of producing 5,000 Model 3 sedans by the end of March. After that date, the company expects to “generate significant cash flows from operating activities,” Tesla said in a Nov. 1 letter to shareholders. Tesla’s capital expenditures should also decline as the company pays off its expenses related to the Model 3, CFO Deepak Ahuja said on a conference call the same day.
Dave Arnold, a spokesman for Palo Alto-based Tesla, declined to elaborate.
Tesla’s options are limited.
It’s already drawing down on more of its revolving credit facilities than ever before. And while the bond market is a possible route, it may not be especially welcoming right now. Investors who bought $1.8 billion of debt three months ago remain under water even after the notes recovered a bit from a low of 93.88 cents on the dollar early this month.
That may leave selling equity as the most viable option. But that, of course, would dilute existing shareholders, and Musk, at 20 percent, is the biggest.
“So long as the company is burning cash, it will remain dependent on the patience and enthusiasm of public markets or the deep pockets of a white knight,” said Christian Hoffmann, a money manager at Thornburg Investment Management.
Source: Bloomberg
Nov 22, 2017 3:16:42 PM
Nov 22, 2017 4:07:35 PM
Dec 5, 2017 1:37:22 PM
"Tesla is where hype goes to die"
The first 30 Tesla Model 3s delivered on Friday, July 28, 2017
TSLA Tesla
- Tesla stood out as automakers in the US reported monthly auto-sales numbers on Friday.
- The electric-car maker delivered only 3,590 vehicles in November in the US, down 18% from a year ago.
- Unlike Tesla, other carmakers have their electric-vehicle supply chains down pat, and they know how to mass-produce vehicles.
This is where Hype Goes to Die.
Friday was the monthly moment of truth for automakers in the US. They reported the number of new vehicles that their dealers delivered to their customers and that the automakers delivered directly to large fleet customers. These are unit sales, not dollar sales, and they’re religiously followed by the industry.
Total sales in November rose 0.9% from a year ago to 1,393,010 new vehicles, according to Autodata, which tracks these sales as they’re reported by the automakers. Sales of cars dropped 8.2%. Sales of trucks – which include SUVs, crossovers, pickups, and vans – rose 6.6%. Strong replacement demand from the hurricane-affected areas in Texas papered over weaknesses elsewhere. As always, there were winners and losers.
And one of the losers was Tesla.
First things first: There is nothing wrong with a tiny automaker trying to design, make, and sell cool but expensive cars that a few thousand Americans might buy every month, and trying to do so on a battleground dominated by giants. Porsche has been doing that for years. Porsche AG is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is itself majority-owned by Porsche Automobile Holding SE. Tesla is out there by itself.
And Tesla has put electric vehicles on the map. That was a huge feat. EVs have been around since the 1800s, but given the challenges that batteries posed, they simply didn’t catch on until Tesla made EVs cool. Yet Tesla has to buy the battery cells from battery makers, such as Panasonic.
Tesla isn’t quite out there by itself, though. The Wall Street hype machine backs it up, dousing it with billions of dollars on a regular basis to burn through as fast as it can. This masterful hype has created a giant market capitalization of about $52 billion, more than most automakers, including Ford ($50 billion). It’s not far behind GM ($61 billion).
But Tesla – which lost $619 million in Q3 – delivered only 3,590 vehicles in November in the US, down 18% from a year ago.
There are all kinds of interesting aspects about this
One: 3,590 vehicles amounts to a market share of only 0.26%, of the 1,393,010 new cars and trucks sold in the US in November. Porsche outsold Tesla by 55% (5,555 new vehicles).
Two: Tesla doesn’t report monthly deliveries. It wants to play with the big boys, but it doesn’t want people to know on a monthly basis just how crummy and by comparison inconsequential its US sales numbers are. Opaque and dedicated to hype, it refuses to disclose how many vehicles it delivered that month in the US. So the industry is estimating Tesla’s monthly US sales.
Tesla discloses unit sales data in its quarterly earnings reports, long after everyone has already forgotten about the months in which they occurred.
Three: So how are Model 3 sales doing? Since Tesla doesn’t disclose its monthly deliveries in the US, the industry is guessing. The assembly line still isn’t working. “Manufacturing bottlenecks,” as Tesla calls it, and “manufacturing hell,” as Elon Musk calls it, rule the day.
In Q3, Tesla delivered 220 handmade Model 3’s. In October, it delivered about 145 handmade units. In November, the assembly line still wasn’t assembling cars. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered a whopping 345 units in November.
Four: This is where hype goes to die. In February 2017, Tesla hyped these Model 3 production numbers for 2017:
" Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018. "
November is solidly in the fourth quarter. 5,000 vehicles per week would mean over 20,000 a month. OK, this is November and not December, so maybe 4,000 a week for a total of 16,000. We got 345.
Even if the estimate of 345 is off by 100 units up or down, it doesn’t even matter. And December isn’t looking much better. Because there is still no mass-produced Model 3.
Five: The bestselling Model S isn’t best-selling anymore. Inside EVs estimates that Tesla delivered 1,335 Model S in the US. This was far outpaced by the humble Model-3-killer the Chevy Bolt. GM sold 2,987 Bolts in November. Tesla is also estimated to have delivered 1,875 Model X SUVs in the US. It took the Model S and the Model X combined to beat the humble Bolt.
Six: The unglamorous Model-3-killer is number one. The Chevy Bolt faces no “production bottlenecks” and no “manufacturing hell.” It was rolled out gradually, starting in October 2016 in California and Oregon, with other states being added to the distribution plan over time. By August 2017, the Bolt was available in all states. By September, 2,632 Bolts were sold in the US; in October 2,781; and in November 2,987.
The Bolt became the best-selling EV in October and retained that crown in November. Nothing was even close. November was the ninth month in a row of rising sales, as it should be for a brand-new vehicle line. GM has sold 20,070 Bolts so far this year.
Seven: But the Bolt is just a flyspeck for GM. It’s something to build the foundation for a larger shift to EVs. It represented just 1.2% of GM’s total deliveries in the US in November. EVs are still just a niche product. And yet, even this flyspeck crushed every Tesla model without fanfare.
Every automaker is preparing a lineup of EVs. Unlike Tesla, they have their supply chains down pat, and they know how to get their assembly lines to function, and they know how to mass-produce vehicles. There are already about two dozen EV models on the market in the US. Like GM, these automakers are just using their EVs to lay the groundwork for the broader shift.
Tesla has used two years of hype surrounding the Model 3 as a way to boost its share price. This allows it to raise many more billions by selling more ludicrously overpriced shares to gullible investors, and by selling more debt to institutional investors who believe that Tesla’s ability to sell still more ludicrously overpriced shares to gullible retail investors will in effect guarantee the junk-rated debt they just bought. Few companies have ever been able to perform that scheme at this masterful level.
Link: http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-deliveries-november-2017-12
Dec 5, 2017 1:59:49 PM
A very negative article written with mostly harsh but true facts. Yet:
Porsche, a very established luxury car company sold 5,500 cars last month vs 3,500 for a new player in the field with a new type of car and technology that are far from mainstream. I would say Tesla is the winner there.
Tesla has sold more cars than the Bolt, a heavily subsidized much cheaper car from an established giant brand probably trying to dump the Bolt. Again if you look at revenue, Tesla is the winner.
Tesla Model 3 will cannibalizes S and X sales in the short term, there is zero doubt about that.
Tesla doesn’t sell only cars. It sells solar solutions, powerwalls and solar roofs.
Bottom line: Tesla is surfing on a giant bubble, only time will tell if it will pop.
SciFrog:Tesla Model 3 will cannibalizes S and X sales in the short term, there is zero doubt about that.
Bottom line: Tesla is surfing on a giant bubble, only time will tell if it will pop.
Re. Model S sales declining, cannibalization is one possibility, but another is that most who want a Model S and can pay that price already have one, ie. the market, so far at least, is not infinitely large for +$100,000 EVs.
Re. the bubble, totally agree, and at this stage there are two mutually exclusive ways to see Tesla:
1 - as a fan, cheering their chutzpah, their leadership in EVs so far, their non-traditional design etc. and hoping they do well for social reasons
2 - as an investor, expecting to ride this as you would any tech stock wave, and keeping a careful eye on when the wave will end and you need to take the exits to monetize any gains.
Either option is quite OK, but IMO combining the two (ie. being a fan AND being heavily invested in the stock) is not a smart combination, unless the individual has an exceptional ability to separate their business/investing decisions from their enthusiasm for the company; most of us do not do well at this.
--
2017 Range Rover Sport S/C, 2009 Porsche 911S
SciFrog:Good points.
For an investor though you have to wonder how much upside is there left?
Hopefully a little bit, I bought some Tesla stock at 300 flat, so... 
Will sell at 370 or so, I am a pussy, remember?! 
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
About Rennteam | Help | Terms of use | Privacy Policy | Support | Contact | Imprint | Archive
Powered by
Community
and
