Crown

Do you really think Ford and GM will have a better product in 3 years than the Tesla model S from 4 years ago? I don’t.

Agree with Noone1 - Technology is there - there is nothing that makes a tesla unique - they just haven't done it

SciFrog:

Do you really think Ford and GM will have a better product in 3 years than the Tesla model S from 4 years ago? I don’t.

Automotive is a suppliers business - most of their product is done externally - Porsche told me recently that the leather on the seats and steering wheel does not come inhouse - unlike the rest of the cockpit.....- just 1 example

The supplier argument works both ways. How easy is it for Tesla to get better interiors? 

They don’t have a better interior because they don’t need to. They are the top stop of luxury sales in the USA already with a improveable interior and design and somewhat high prices. What do you thing Tesla is probably doing now? They are preparing the real models that people really want in 3 years when the competition heats up and their margins allow them to spend more where they lack now. There is something to be said for a minimalist clean interior which the Germans are not capable of doing (stick on screens? 100 buttons? Analog dial?) in a car that is designed to be a people mover (confort, self driving, safety).

The big manufacturers are very scared of Tesla but not only for their cars and technology. I have mentioned before here, but do not underestimate the sea change that Tesla is bringing in manufacturing (designing cars from the ground up without being held by legacy design or technology), customer/manufacturer relation (no dealership) and service. And then then untapped potential on intergration of cars, powerwall and solar power in a house.

Tell those brick&mortar companies about Amazon. Come on, nowadays we are in front of a new paradigm where tradition means 0.

Tesla is several steps ahead any other manufacturer. Porsche is the best example, they are going to put in the market a 2020 model to compete against Tesla's car that has been around for 5 years now. The advantage in terms of R+D is huge. The advantage in data is huge -we are talking in the millions of miles tracked by Tesla from their cars-. Maybe Tesla in the future will be the new Nokia, who knows -for now they are synonym of innovation and the benchmark in the ELV market-  but I don't necessary see traditional German companies taking the lead that easy.

SciFrog:

The supplier argument works both ways. How easy is it for Tesla to get better interiors? 

The big manufacturers are very scared of Tesla but not only for their cars and technology. I have mentioned before here, but do not underestimate the sea change that Tesla is bringing in manufacturing (designing cars from the ground up without being held by legacy design or technology), customer/manufacturer relation (no dealership) and service. And then then untapped potential on intergration of cars, powerwall and solar power in a house.

Also don't forget that Tesla is probably going to be one of the main suppliers of batteries for everyone else's EVs.

The second point is interesting because of the announcement that Dyson (yes the vacuum manufacturer) is looking to do an EV with Chris Bangle as the designer. Clean sheet thinking isn't really possible in an ICE platform but still is for EV. I'd be a little worried about that Dyson is thinking of. 

Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/porsche-mission-e-seen-production-body-first-time

That good news from the mission E is that it is reported that it will have autonomous drive level 4. If it arrives soon, before the estimated of my Model 3 that I have on order I would definitely make the switch, as with the current production numbers coming out of Tesla, it seems it will. The main reason I have a Model 3 on order is the autonomous driving feature which will help my 100 miles daily commute. 

Big question on the Porsche will be price. They can't launch this car at $150K for a low-end model. It has to be competitive with Tesla in the same range/performance.

Porsche said the entry price is similar to the Panamera. So $80K

noone1:

Big question on the Porsche will be price. They can't launch this car at $150K for a low-end model. It has to be competitive with Tesla in the same range/performance.

Porsche and Tesla plays in different market segment, Porsche is a premium brand and will command premium prices.

Tesla don't price the Model S like a Chevy Bolt, just like Rolls Royce don't price their cars to compete with a Ford Taurus either. 

Tesla at best is a entry level premium car, like Cadillac, Acura or Infiniti. Pushing it and it might compete with Volvo and Jaguar.  It is certainly not at the same segment as Porsche, Mercedes, Audi. BMW. 

SciFrog:

Tesla will be done only if their investors says it’s game over. And that ain’t happening anytime soon.

 

If your survival depends on investors you will pass away much sooner than if you depend on the market/customers... This can happen very quickly. Rarely can you see it coming, otherwise making money at the stock exchange would be too easy...

In one mostly erroneous phrase you just wiped most of the tech and biotech companies and a small grocery retailer caller Amazon . In theory you might be correct but that’s not how the world has been working for the last few decades.

SciFrog:

In one mostly erroneous phrase you just wiped most of the tech and biotech companies and a small grocery retailer caller Amazon . In theory you might be correct but that’s not how the world has been working for the last few decades.

Most successful tech "survivors" made cash at an early stage of their development (and let it be through non-core activities like data centers in case of amazon), though. However, Tesla does not seem to be one of these cash producing companies. Their existence might be over very sudden...

Building cars is extremely cash hungry. Actually, insiders told Musk that he would not be able to create Tesla...

SciFrog:

Building cars is extremely cash hungry. Actually, insiders told Musk that he would not be able to create Tesla...

That's indeed my point - Tesla would be the very first newly established car company that would be very profitable  But of course, miracles happen 

Porsche builds it's battery plant just now - in Zuffenhausen

alexalex88:

I don't get why you keep saying that.

Let's say I know VW Group well... 

Porsche is planning to put in the market a car in 2020 to compete against a car from Tesla which already has been around for 5 years.

So what? Just wait and let them surprise you. FYI: Porsche makes more money with the Boxster only than Tesla with...all their cars. 

I have little doubt when these major players join the ELV market they are gonna do it right and probably represent a huge competition for Tesla. However what I'm trying to say is that the early bird catches the worm and Tesla has the experiencie, know-how and a very innovative CEO (come on, he's even linked with the aerospacial industry).

No, Tesla caught the worm but failed to profit from it. Once the big guys are in the game, game over for Tesla.

I wouldn't understimate Tesla nor other disruptive players that might appear (let's say Google or Apple). We've seen that before with the brick&mortar companies in the new digital ecosystem. Tradition means nothing here.

I don't have a clue about Google or Apple and what kind of stuff they are developing. Looking at Tesla, I know for sure: Game over in a couple of years. Sorry but being the first isn't always a good thing and Tesla isn't really profitable. Now imagine Tesla with a 100x competition. Bye bye...

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RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

At long as Tesla can break even, others are in for av world of hurt financially. It's widely known that margins are going to be worse on EV for quite some time, so if Tesla forces them to make EV, they will force them to lose a lot of profitability.

noone1:

At long as Tesla can break even, others are in for av world of hurt financially. It's widely known that margins are going to be worse on EV for quite some time, so if Tesla forces them to make EV, they will force them to lose a lot of profitability.

This is where I think you are wrong. This is exactly the reason why there are no EV right now to compete with Tesla. Once the major players start actually making them and in masses, they will be profitable. Porsche won't make unprofitable models and they plan to switch the next Macan generation to EV completely. 

Once the EU starts to actively promote EVs and the tech needed to charge them, game over for Tesla. This is when EVs become profitable because they will actually sell in bigger numbers.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

You are ignoring Noone point that Tesla doesn’t need to be profitable any time soon to survive. This will put tremendous pressure on the other to compete with Tesla and keep their profit margin. Your view is still clouded because you are trying to compare today’s Tesla models vs what the competition will have in 3 years. Among all the advantages Tesla has, there is another one not to overlook: they can update and make their car better anytime they want and don't even have model year cycles. The others come out with a car which is basically stale for many years (today’s Macan is the same than my car bought 3.5 years ago). Look where Tesla was 3 years ago in terms of battery, powertrain, price, tech and interior quality. Yo are also ignoring what could happen with the used car market for Tesla. One idea is that Tesla cars will age a lot better because the underlying technology is much simpler and possibly their interior, albeit less fancy, should also age better. That could mean much higher residual prices than other luxury equivalent cars. And that would mean a cheaper overall cost to own, just look how high priced Porsches fare, they get destroyed the first 2 or 3 years (I lost $90k on a 4 year old Cayenne TTS).

Bottom line is that it will be harder for Tesla, don’t get me wrong, but saying “game over” is just much too strong a statement.

SciFrog:

You are ignoring Noone point that Tesla doesn’t need to be profitable any time soon to survive. This will put tremendous pressure on the other to compete with Tesla and keep their profit margin. Your view is still clouded because you are trying to compare today’s Tesla models vs what the competition will have in 3 years. Among all the advantages Tesla has, there is another one not to overlook: they can update and make their car better anytime they want and don't even have model year cycles. The others come out with a car which is basically stale for many years (today’s Macan is the same than my car bought 3.5 years ago). Look where Tesla was 3 years ago in terms of battery, powertrain, price, tech and interior quality. Yo are also ignoring what could happen with the used car market for Tesla. One idea is that Tesla cars will age a lot better because the underlying technology is much simpler and possibly their interior, albeit less fancy, should also age better. That could mean much higher residual prices than other luxury equivalent cars. And that would mean a cheaper overall cost to own, just look how high priced Porsches fare, they get destroyed the first 2 or 3 years (I lost $90k on a 4 year old Cayenne TTS).

Bottom line is that it will be harder for Tesla, don’t get me wrong, but saying “game over” is just much too strong a statement.

I'm doing that because I got a glimpse of the future...  I just hope Tesla is prepared for that.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

You saw one side, what do you know about what Tesla has planned? And what you saw might be great, but at what price? Tesla is going to have a model Y selling for $35k, less than a base BWM 3 series, and who know what will happen with their luxury model?

SciFrog:

You are ignoring Noone point that Tesla doesn’t need to be profitable any time soon to survive.

Remember the point I made above: the investors will be gone overnight (and with them the cash to keep Tesla alive) - as soon as the the large OEMs enter the market and make it a mass market or, more likely, (ii) as soon as the EV hype is over and everybody has realized that the EV technology is not efficient enough yet to make it to the mass market. The Tesla share price is built on the hope that neither of the above will happen  

Interesting days ahead for sure. I would buy a well optioned Macan EV with 300+ miles range around $80-90k in an instant. Sadly even in three years I don’t see how they can sell it for less than $125k. And don’t think to touch a Cayenne EV for less than $150k, a “regular” Cayenne S is already $120k...

You're gonna be eating crow on ii. EV is the real deal. 

RC:

alexalex88:

I don't get why you keep saying that.

Let's say I know VW Group well... 

You might know VW Group well but definitely you don't know Tesla plans, am I right? And what we know about Porsche f.e. isn't that exciting. Pretty? Sure. Dated? Sure. If there is some secret proyect that do not involve VW's most prestational brand, that's something that I definitely don't know.

Porsche is planning to put in the market a car in 2020 to compete against a car from Tesla which already has been around for 5 years.

So what? Just wait and let them surprise you. FYI: Porsche makes more money with the Boxster only than Tesla with...all their cars. 

Who is talking about money here? I'm stating facts: Porsche, ELV, 2020, 2017 specs vs Tesla, ELV, 2012, 2017 specs. Do you notice the pattern here?

I have little doubt when these major players join the ELV market they are gonna do it right and probably represent a huge competition for Tesla. However what I'm trying to say is that the early bird catches the worm and Tesla has the experiencie, know-how and a very innovative CEO (come on, he's even linked with the aerospacial industry).

No, Tesla caught the worm but failed to profit from it. Once the big guys are in the game, game over for Tesla.

Why? I haven't read a single solid argument from you in this regard.

I wouldn't understimate Tesla nor other disruptive players that might appear (let's say Google or Apple). We've seen that before with the brick&mortar companies in the new digital ecosystem. Tradition means nothing here.

I don't have a clue about Google or Apple and what kind of stuff they are developing. Looking at Tesla, I know for sure: Game over in a couple of years. Sorry but being the first isn't always a good thing and Tesla isn't really profitable. Now imagine Tesla with a 100x competition. Bye bye...

Let me recap: so you are looking to a company that's gonna be consolidating its dominance in the ELV segment for no less than 3 more years -evolving its product-, producing its own batteries -eventually could it be the supplier of other manufacturers?-, it's the benchmark in innovation, it has more data than all its competitors together... well, I'm not saying you won't be right but it's a bold statement saying game over that lightly.

SciFrog:

You saw one side, what do you know about what Tesla has planned? And what you saw might be great, but at what price? Tesla is going to have a model Y selling for $35k, less than a base BWM 3 series, and who know what will happen with their luxury model?

Point well made but looking at the issues Tesla is having with the Model 3, I'm afraid... 

Maybe I underestimate Elon Musk and he surprises us (again) but I kind of have the feeling that he won't...this time.

Tesla can only make money with affordable high volume models. They still aren't there yet, not even close.

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RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

They solved the issues with the X which was a far more complex car as they admitted, surely they will fix the 3 series eventually.

RC:

Point well made but looking at the issues Tesla is having with the Model 3, I'm afraid... 

A friend of mine from our local Porsche Club is an automation systems tech guy whose company supplies automotive accounts like Tesla.

He said Tesla will finally get there with the "Model 3", but it will be messy.

His analysis of their problem contends that they hired a whole bunch of millennial know-it-alls with no experience (fresh ideas only) who try to force their naive notions into existence without benefit of prior experience.

He said it was painful to interact with them.  They try hard, but have to reinvent others' mistakes and won't listen to cogent arguments to the contrary.

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Mike

918 Spyder + 991 GT3 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S + Panamera Turbo +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T