Mark my words: Once major car manufacturers jump (seriously) on the ELV train, Tesla will be done.
It is amazing what Tesla has achieved so far but their story reminds me of Blackberry and maybe even Nokia to be honest.
Unless Tesla invents a completely new type of battery/charging method...
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RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
RC:Mark my words: Once major car manufacturers jump (seriously) on the ELV train, Tesla will be done.
It is amazing what Tesla has achieved so far but their story reminds me of Blackberry and maybe even Nokia to be honest.
Unless Tesla invents a completely new type of battery/charging method...
Your words are marked. And revisiting this topic in about 15 years I think you will regret that
For me personally I don't give a damn what happens with Tesla and I gladely welcome competition. I would be happy to buy a Porsche again, but not with ICE (for daily driver that is). What I however believe in is that EV is future for mainstream cars and have so many positive effects. Your expression of "mark my words" is just a protective German statement where you see a threat to the heart of German car industry that has been leading for ages.... now there is some distruptive tech company from California that change the game and put some stress on the 100 year old companies. That is quite funny if you ask me.
This Ghandi quote is quite suitable for traditional carmakers vs. Tesla:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Secondly, the comparison with Nokia and Blackberry is kind of hilarious. Nokia and Blackberry were the big companies dominating the market and then they lost it to the Asians and Apple. So it's exactly the opposite. Tesla can NOT be compared with them, but maybe some of the German car makers can be in 30 years... I honestly hope not and that they step up. But there is a large chance that they will have less market share and also that there are new car makers from Asia that go more global and take this with EVs serious.
And regarding the battery/charging developed by Tesla. You think they sit still on their chair not developing further? Just take a look at the spec sheets for the German ELVs that is suppose to hit the market between 2019-2022. There is not much in those specs that beat what Tesla launched in 2013..... There is no charging infrastructure built up and the fastest you can charge a non tesla today is with 50kW. Teslas existing superchargers are 150kW and it's simplified with complete integration with the car without having hazzle with payment and subscriptions.
Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
Jun 29, 2017 12:31:49 PM
RC:Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
Basically this. But the small Tesla's followers is like a cult so good luck using reasoning...
⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS
Jun 29, 2017 12:40:41 PM
Carlos from Spain:RC:Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
Basically this. But the small Tesla's followers is like a cult so good luck using reasoning...
I think we all have this kind of problem here and there...
Just yesterday I met with a bunch of 918, Carrera GT and other Porsche drivers. My R8 was kind of a shock for them, one didn't even want to shake my hand anymore (OK, it was supposed to be a joke but anyway...). I could see it on their faces, they wanted to see my car and sit in it but they didn't want to acknowledge that they are curious. Only one 918 owner bothered, an old friend. At least they all acknowledged that the sound of the R8 is amazing but nobody cared about the car or it's performance, which was a bit of a disappointment for me. I wasn't slow (other than the 918, the other cars were no match for me).
We all are brand focused, like it or not. In the end, it is important to keep an open mind and look around the corner from time to time. Once major car manufacturers offer more than some signature low volume models for the media and a limited customer base, even Tesla fans will be amazed. It just takes time.
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
BjoernB:in Switzerland they just had a article saying it takes 17 tons CO2 to produce just the batteries for ONE tesla - equal to 8 years average consumption of a normal Petrol car........nuff said......
TESLA ( and all the other electric cars ) must not be looked at as ' clean' cars . I don't think TESLA has ever promoted that . They need to be seen as a different way of moving cars , that's it , no more, no less .
964 Carrera 4 -- 997.2 C2S , -20mm -- 991 GT3 RS
Gnil:BjoernB:in Switzerland they just had a article saying it takes 17 tons CO2 to produce just the batteries for ONE tesla - equal to 8 years average consumption of a normal Petrol car........nuff said......
TESLA ( and all the other electric cars ) must not be looked at as ' clean' cars . I don't think TESLA has ever promoted that . They need to be seen as a different way of moving cars , that's it , no more, no less .
Very true. ELVs are the future, not doubt about it. It is just a matter of time (and cost).
For sportscars manufacturers, the future is going to be more challenging I'm afraid. Building a 1000 hp sportscar shouldn't be a problem anymore, maybe even for under 200k EUR but the question is: How to make these cars fun to drive other than on the Autobahn? How to make these cars lighter without compromising safety standards/regulations and rising cost? So many challenges ahead, I do not envy anyone working in the car industry (OK, maybe a little bit because I like a challenge ).
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
Jun 29, 2017 12:53:13 PM
Carlos from Spain:RC:Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
Basically this. But the small Tesla's followers is like a cult so good luck using reasoning...
Why always those arrogant messages Carlos when it comes to ELVs and Tesla? Tesla is not aimed for the die hard car enthusiasts and petrol heads. We're more discussing mainstream vehicles here.
And concerning demand RC... I'm not sure if you've missed that Tesla have about 500.000 pre-orders on the Model 3. I would actually move things around and say that the demand is crazy much higher than supply. And that is exactly what the German manufacturers know. They can't deliver on the demand and therefor they can't for financial reasons bring up the positive sides with EVs. They must continue to make profit on the engines and drivetrains that they have invested billions in. Why do you for instance think that BMW stress out a 3-series EV this autumn to compete with the Model 3? Because they don't think there is a market??
Jun 29, 2017 12:55:28 PM
Carlos from Spain:RC:Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
Basically this. But the small Tesla's followers is like a cult so good luck using reasoning...
Tesla will not survive the next significant downturn on the stock markets. No new external money = end of story...
These black and white stories.. Tesla going bankrupt, etc...
Why not just applaud what they have done so far and wish them good luck moving forward? You guys that are so negative about Tesla, what exactly is it that hurt your feelings so much that you need to make those statements?
lukestern:Carlos from Spain:RC:Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
Basically this. But the small Tesla's followers is like a cult so good luck using reasoning...
Why always those arrogant messages Carlos when it comes to ELVs and Tesla? Tesla is not aimed for the die hard car enthusiasts and petrol heads. We're more discussing mainstream vehicles here.
And concerning demand RC... I'm not sure if you've missed that Tesla have about 500.000 pre-orders on the Model 3. I would actually move things around and say that the demand is crazy much higher than supply. And that is exactly what the German manufacturers know. They can't deliver on the demand and therefor they can't for financial reasons bring up the positive sides with EVs. They must continue to make profit on the engines and drivetrains that they have invested billions in. Why do you for instance think that BMW stress out a 3-series EV this autumn to compete with the Model 3? Because they don't think there is a market??
I can get 500.000 pre-orders for RC's new sex drug but how do orders pay my bills?
BMW, like many other manufacturers, are preparing for the ELV future but slowly. No need to rush, even if Tesla's stock market value already surpassed the one of BMW (which clearly is an indicator how much hype there is with Tesla).
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RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
Jun 29, 2017 1:35:39 PM
RC:lukestern:Carlos from Spain:RC:Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
Basically this. But the small Tesla's followers is like a cult so good luck using reasoning...
Why always those arrogant messages Carlos when it comes to ELVs and Tesla? Tesla is not aimed for the die hard car enthusiasts and petrol heads. We're more discussing mainstream vehicles here.
He was just proving my point
⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS
Jun 29, 2017 5:22:55 PM
Tesla can still compete on some levels like wifi system updates, autonomous driving and vehicules designed different from the ground up (batteries location for example), and a unique design. For now all they have to do is improve the interior which is already not that bad.
But it could be a hard battle unless the others like Porsche cannot produce a similar car for the same price as a Tesla. A Panamera S is $100k, how much would be a Panamera with a 90kwh battery? $150k? You got my point.
Jun 29, 2017 10:07:26 PM
Tesla's secret weapon - free charging! They are going to have all Superchargers powered by solar Vv soon.
Love my teslas. But also love my Porsche. Actually like the i8 also when I can get if out of my wife's hands!
but so looking forward to my GT3!
Tesla Model S P100D & Model X P90D & 2016 BMW i8 & 2014 991 TTS Cab - Sept 991.2 GT3 ordered. 2017 Porsche Mission E on order
Jun 30, 2017 12:33:56 AM
lukestern:Carlos from Spain:RC:Tesla is dominating the ELV market, so the Blackberry/Nokia comparison is a good one in my opinion.
One reason why classic car manufacturers haven't come up with similar products is simple: Who would buy them? There is no market for that to beat Tesla before there is no charging infrastructure. This is what major car manufacturers are working on and at the same time on better than Tesla products. Why haven't we seen them yet? Simple: Who would buy them, the ELV market is pretty limited right now and Tesla rules it.
Like I said before: Wait and see. In a decade or two, the cards in the ELV game will be re-shuffled.
Basically this. But the small Tesla's followers is like a cult so good luck using reasoning...
Why always those arrogant messages Carlos when it comes to ELVs and Tesla? Tesla is not aimed for the die hard car enthusiasts and petrol heads. We're more discussing mainstream vehicles here.
And concerning demand RC... I'm not sure if you've missed that Tesla have about 500.000 pre-orders on the Model 3. I would actually move things around and say that the demand is crazy much higher than supply. And that is exactly what the German manufacturers know. They can't deliver on the demand and therefor they can't for financial reasons bring up the positive sides with EVs. They must continue to make profit on the engines and drivetrains that they have invested billions in. Why do you for instance think that BMW stress out a 3-series EV this autumn to compete with the Model 3? Because they don't think there is a market??
Other car manufacturers are getting into the EV market because they know governments will force them to do so in the future. Better to be ready than sorry.
Regarding demeaning Tesla, there is a disconnect between what Musk (and his ego) and what he is saying about the technology he has and is pursuing. There are many examples of failed companies who failed because they made wrong business decisions regarding market demands and technology.
"A man wrapped up in himself makes for a very small bundle."
Tesla just did a silent update to the rear drivetrain, the regular 75kwh gains about 1s 0-60 to create a gap vs the model 3 coming out this month. No retrofit possible. That makes a huge upgrade for base models:
"On the Model S 75 and Model S 75D, the 0-60 times now stand at 4.3 and 4.2 seconds, down from 5.5 and 5.2 seconds respectively. Meanwhile, the Model S 100D can now go from 0-60 in 4.1 seconds, a slight improvement over its previous 0-60 time of 4.2 seconds.
On the SUV front, the Model X 75D saw its 0-60 time whittled down to 4.9 seconds from 6 second while the Model X 100D saw its 0-60 time go from 5.2 seconds down to 4.7 seconds."
I love how they keep making them better all the time, like McLaren.
So the X 100D is now a 4.7s 0-60 295 miles range 7 seater SUV fully loaded at $120k minus some rebates ($7.5k federal minimum, this includes $8k for full autonomous software and hardware). Spiffy, I might have bought that instead of the RRS autobiography.
If you compare to a Cayenne S, I built one the way I would order it without going too crazy for $106k. The X 100D equivalent is at $109.5k. For a Panamera the comparaison looks even worse. No wonder Tesla is the best seller in the luxury sedan segment.
Jul 5, 2017 6:57:45 PM
Jul 5, 2017 7:02:04 PM
That's your opinion. Fact is people shopping in that segment are totally comparing these models and more people buy almost as many Teslas than the Porsche offerings (actually in the USA Tesla probably sells more than Porsche).
You watch analogy is wrong on many levels, starting with the price. A better analogy is Porsche is a Rolex and Tesla is a Panerai.
Jul 5, 2017 7:07:47 PM
Panerai? ... my analogy was not about the price, it was about the concept (digital, battery operated, keeps great time, lots of tech and functions but still nothing compared to a real watch on your wrist), but if you want to factor in the price then its digital Casio in a golden casing
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⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS
Jul 5, 2017 7:18:25 PM
"Starting with the price". In a watch the mechanism is everything. In a car the engine is a much smaller part. A mechanical watch is a piece of art. A regular Porsche is just an item you enjoy, use then dispose of when it has served its purpose. Come to think of it the mechanical watch analogy is not really one at all. Porsche is a Swatch, Teslas are Casios, maybe... Anyway, you are very biased, you hate Teslas... So be it. Let the others admire what Musk is doing to the auto industry, he single handldly created a revolution.
For its regular models, Porsche is now a mass manufacturer selling at premium exclusive small manufacturer price. Have fun keeping getting gouged buying regular, 911, Cayennes and Panameras. Many people including here have already jumped to the future or other brands.
Jul 5, 2017 7:32:32 PM
Pardon me if I don't get on board with the glorified golf cart minivan revolution and its messiah. I'm just saying that if you like a Tesla X that is fine, we all have our different tastes and preferences, but don't compare it to a Cayenne or Panamera just because they are similar priced, apples and oranges, Casio and Rolex.
Ever wonder why Porsche can get away selling those number units while at a premium price? its not about buying exclusivity, when you get it, you can join me in the twisty bits having fun and enjoying driving
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⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS
Jul 5, 2017 7:59:29 PM
Hmm, think people actually cross shop minivans with Model X.
In that market they win hands down. If I want to buy a luxurious minivan, I would take the Model X. The best from Chrysler or Honda or Toyota are still a bit behind the Model X. Perhaps the RoW only Mercedes V-class might compete.
I am tempted to replace my Odyssey with the Model X, but the Model X isn't big enough. The 3rd row is super rammed and no luggage room behind. Tesla needed to solve that problem, they need to make the Model X bigger.
Jul 5, 2017 8:08:53 PM
Carlos from Spain:Panerai? ... my analogy was not about the price, it was about the concept (digital, battery operated, keeps great time, lots of tech and functions but still nothing compared to a real watch on your wrist), but if you want to factor in the price then its digital Casio in a golden casing
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⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS
Most Panerais on people's wrists (including my wife's) have a $150 ETA movement in them...
Fact of the matter is Tesla S buyers cross shop BMW 5&7 series, MB E&S class, Audi A7 etc... Model X buyers cross buy Acura MDX, MB GLe, BMW X5, Audi Q7 etc... You might not like it, might not agree with it but it's true.
Driving dynamics aren't as important to some users, certainly in an in-town runabout and some people like modernist lines in an interior more than acres of leather and wood (not me, I like quilted leather).
Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region
Jul 5, 2017 8:31:45 PM
Whoopsy:Hmm, think people actually cross shop minivans with Model X.
In that market they win hands down. If I want to buy a luxurious minivan, I would take the Model X. The best from Chrysler or Honda or Toyota are still a bit behind the Model X. Perhaps the RoW only Mercedes V-class might compete.
With this I agree 100%.
But only if living in America, since here on the other side of the pond the complete lack of infrastructure is a deal breaker, there is only 14 superstations in all of Spain for example and up until last month not even a dealership yet.
⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS
Jul 5, 2017 9:23:27 PM
Tesla buyers are not necessarily cross shopping other luxury, similarly priced brands. It's not even a matter of price, it's a matter of EV and technology, and the brand's image of those things.
Tesla is selling EVs and positioning it's brand as a forward thinking technology company that's promising the world. A lot of people are buying these because that's what there after and if Tesla didn't have the Model X, they wouldn't be in a $100K SUV otherwise.
Do you honestly think all those tech people in the Bay area driving Model Xs would be driving Cayennes and RRs if the X didn't exist? Highly doubt it. They'd most likely be driving a mid-class, mid-priced SUV because they're not into high-end luxury cars. Tesla isn't a high-end, luxury car maker. They are a very cool EV maker. Lots of Tesla drivers don't give a shit about cars. Lots of wealthy technology people don't give a shit about luxury in general. You're more likely to see an Apple watch on the wrist of a well-heeled tech employee than you are a Rolex or Panerai or whatever.
Just look at the Tesla subreddit. Do you think these kind of nerds would be doing mileage tests and showing how awesome their S-Class is? LOL. Tesla buyers are into Teslas and EVs, not high-end cars. They'd drive a Tesla even if it was $30K.