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    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Hurst said:
    Quote:
    SoCal Alan said:
    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    Now, if you're talking about GAS prices (not car prices), I agree with you 100%. However, I think the high gas taxes in Europe are beneficial, and I believe the US would be greatly inspired to raise its gas taxes. We as citizens and as business people need to get prepared for a world where energy is expensive. In a free market, I see no better way to steer energy users towards energy efficiency than to hit hard with the tax hammer.
    When cheap energy is over, millions of American citizens and businesses will be struggling to reinvent themselves. Cities will be a mess, as people abandon suburbs and rush downtown where the infrastructure is unable to support them.
    Meanwhile, European cities, citizens and businesses will shrug it off. Business as usual.
    I know people will dismiss these dire predictions: "But the American public will never accept it!" Unfortunately, this is not a matter of choice. It will happen whether we like it or not. What we can choose is merely to be prepared, or to ignore it until it is too late.



    Let the market decide how expensive energy is. The goverment will only be making matters worse by making energy even more expensive. You want the economy to collapse, just tax the hell out of gas and you'll get it. And remember, as energy prices rise for us, they rise for Europeans also, at the same time. But they will hurt your pocketbook more then they would for us. If you like paying $6 per gallon for gas, then that's your decision. If the politicians in the US decide to place that tax on us, there will be a revolt like you won't believe.



    I dont think the market is a sufficient guide for the situation at the moment.

    We need to be cognizant of the ephemeral nature of crude oil (in the long run) as well as the environmental effects (blasphemy on a sports car board )...



    Hi Hurst, can you please elaborate? Why can't the market guide us in terms of crude oil / gas? Even at $3 a gallon, it is (in my opinion), still cheap.

    Also, regarding environmental effects, are you suggesting that the world give up using crude oil as an energy source, because of pollution?

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Here's an elaboration of what I say, and it may be contrary to many neoliberal/American beliefs. I'm from America, but this is just my perspective:

    The concept of free-market economics in global trade (neoliberalization) has its benefits and it has its negatives. From a positive standpoint, we allow the market to formulate the lowest competitive price thus the consumer and the economy ideally benefit.

    However, applying free-market economics to non American model capitalistic economies is not always a perfect fit. For example, in many OPEC countries, the massive profits yielded by these nations is not being utilized for the most positive benefit of the national infrastructure. Figures such as GNP are not an adequate gauge of economic development.

    As I said in an earlier post, many of these countries lack the sufficient critical mass infrastructure to sustain their existence in a post-oil collapse. As an example, if you live in Saudi Arabia*, you can buy many exotic cars that cost vast sums of money and many of the inhabitants of these countries possess the wealth to do so, but if you're looking for a mechanic who can fix your car, you'll be hard pressed to find one that hasn't been imported from another educational system. This is because the country has not spent its imported wealth in creating critical mass infrastructure (schools-->higher education-->internal development-->economic equality).

    This example illuminates the lack of infrastructure within these countries to deal with the economic growth they wish to exploit.
    -----

    By saying all this, I'm trying to give examples of why free-market economics does not necessarily work well for most nations. EU nations are no exception. Their economic policies are not geared towards free-market capitalism but rather through protectionist pseudo-socialism*. The high taxes are an extension of the government's will to protect the subsidized costs of commodities (i.e. the damages to the environment caused by the consumption of fuel). Hence, we see stricter fuel regulations in Europe (e.g. why there are more DI cars in Europe than in the US).

    Of course protectionism has its cost: economic growth. Our globalized economic infrastructure would, as you allude to, collapse without the use of fossil fuels to propel our trade/commerce. This is most relevant to the United States.

    With the gradual introduction of India and China into the game of powerhouse industrial and thusly post-industrial economies, there is more of a squeeze towards crude oil consumption and this is beginning to hit the United States.

    Granted, OPEC is not being squeezed by India and China; their production is still sufficient, a fact that is seemingly disregarded or misinterpreted by the average US citizen enraged by fuel prices. However, like many things in economics, prognostication plays a large role in pricing issues.


    -----
    Now, if we want to adhere to a sheerly free-market economic situation in terms of oil dissemination, the United States might be hurt badly by this move. I believe this is true because of China.

    Look at what China is doing right now with the Yuen (Renminbi) in terms of international trade with countries. By devaluing their currency, they are able to sustain an approx. 200 billion dollar trade deficit with the United States (cheapening up the goods for the US market). The result is that China needs to print more Yuen to utilize their devaluated currency in purchasing US currency (something that has intrinsic hard value, rather than their inflated papers...). This is a dangerous yet temporarily effective scheme utilized by the Chinese which has yeilded massive economic growth (Annual growth estimates ~8-9%) through free-market economics.

    Regardless of the negative and imminent consequences of this action. Now that China needs to import crude oil into their country (which will steadily if not rapidly increase) their devaluated currency puts them in quite a bind.

    I theorize (focusing on I ) that the Chinese might continue this practice, utilizing the US currency to buy crude oil in quantity (I'm sure OPEC has no interest in devaluated Yuen, but more tangible US currency). By doing so, the Chinese are, in effect, pushing the US out of a competitive state in the market, utilizing their skewed exports as a facilitator for their imports. They will be able to buy at more competitive rates and OEPCs price pandering will not bother them that much.

    The U.S. will be put in a very precarious situation that has an infinite number of global economic reverberations. I would postulate that they would remedy this through Diplomacy, WTO manipulation or even military action/threat.

    -------


    What I'm trying to impress is that a free-market global economy will be an ever-dangerous foray for the United States when it is in a game where players dont always play by the rules (not to say that we have for the last x amount of years).


    Notta Benna, I'm just an undergraduate college student without a lot of real-world travel in these areas.
    There are many members in rennteam that via business or locations might have a firmer grasp of situations in their respective locals. I can only postulate on what I read/analyze.

    cheap petrol no more

    the days of cheap petrol over here UAE-Dubai had ended and took a bad twist because in 3 or 6 months they are going to hike the price once more again in one year , i remember few years ago driving my 4wheels nissan petrol as a daily car ,but now no way i can do that it will be an easy way to burn your money , now i drive a suzuki swift daily and an E55 AMG weekends while waiting for my 911TT

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    in qatar it is not increasing it is only 00.08 QR

    Re: Is the price of gasoline increasing all over the world?

    As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, the price of fuel did not change in the last 4-5 years. It is still at 0.9SAR per liter or about 0.24$ per liter.

    Re: Is the price of gasoline increasing all over the world?

    In Germany you pay right now about 6,87$/gal for Super Plus (98-100 octane) and about 6,32$/gal for Super (95 octane)!

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Alan, the main problem is that while financial markets adjust very quickly to fundamental changes in supply and demand, the real world does not.

    It takes time to develop energy-saving technologies. It takes time to develop actually usable electric cars. It takes time to develop a service/refuelling network for alternative energies. It takes time to build a large array of nuclear power plants to power those recharging stations. It takes time to build millions of apartment and office buildings downtown. It takes time to build the light rail / subway, electrical, water and sewage infrastructure to support those new buildings.

    Another problem is that while the market will throw money at scientists to develop the technology to adapt to the new high prices, this alone is in no way a guarantee that the technological hurdles will be overcome. Sometimes, it takes a non-obvious workaround that nobody had thought about until a lazy grad student accidentally stumbles upon it a decade later. Sometimes, physical impossibilities remain just that: impossibilities. We can't eat money. We can't produce chemical fertilizers without oil and methane. We can't fit a nuclear power plant under the hood of a car.

    Then there are political problems. You rightly mentioned political opposition to nuclear power plants, in spite of the fact that they are our only hope for the future. Likewise, people would riot if energy taxes were raised, even though it wouldn't cost them much more if they just stopped wasting energy (not making painful sacrifices, just stop wasting). The reorganization of US cities on a more compact basis might cause race riots as the current inner-city inhabitants are evicted to make room for the relocating suburbanites.


    All this means the real world needs a lot of time to adapt to a paradigm shift on the energy market. It means you cannot trust the market to prepare the world for the times ahead. It means it is the duty of the government to step in, fill the void, and prepare the country so as to make the transition as smooth as possible. It is the government's duty to assume the worst-case scenario is going to actually happen, because nobody else does.

    If the government fails its duty, all hell breaks loose. Consider the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Citizens were not ready. Companies were not ready. Local, state and federal authorities were not ready. The rebuilding task is so huge that private business failed. Government failed. Six months after Katrina, NOLA is still a wasteland because of a criminal lack of foresight.
    Now, consider that all major US cities are going to need a NOLA-sized rebuilding effort in 20 years. Let's see how well that works out if we don't plan at least a decade ahead.





    Regarding high fuel taxes specifically now, I have no idea how long they've been around in Europe. They were there before I was even born.
    Once again, the point is we're not spending more money for our energy. Gas might be twice as expensive because of taxes, but we're using half as much to achieve the same thing. We have to, because the market requires that it cost as much to make the same product in the US with cheap energy, and in Europe with expensive energy.
    The money I spend in taxes instead of in wasting energy stays in the country. I contribute to making the era of affordable energy last longer. Our companies are enjoying newer, more productive machinery today, and are getting an edge over their US competitors for the days energy becomes really expensive. It's a win-win situation.

    The market sees no point in energy efficiency. Whenever a new fuel-saving technology comes up, its manufacturer raises its prices as much as possible in order to capture the value created by this innovation. The result for the end user is the same: Airbus planes might be 10% more fuel-efficient, but they cost 10% more than Boeings.
    But since fossile fuels are definitely in limited supply, you know which option makes more sense strategically. From that you can conclude that the market is not necessarily the best decision-maker.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Very interesting thoughts Hurst... much of it I agree with however, I lack the energy to type long paragraphs as well as the eloquence of your delivery.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    john999s said:
    Our price in the UK is the equivalent of $6.60 per US gallon. About $106 to fill up.

    Enjoy your prices whilst you can guys....


    what?6.6$/gallon???
    over here the 98octane is at 4$a gallon,and i tought it was verrrry expensive..

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    SciFrog said:
    80% taxes in France...

    If you think Porsches are cheap in the US, look at the Jeep and Hummer prices, almost half the european prices...



    In Europe they have free health care, free higher level education, secured retirementa and..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Ron (Houston) said:
    Quote:
    SciFrog said:
    80% taxes in France...

    If you think Porsches are cheap in the US, look at the Jeep and Hummer prices, almost half the european prices...



    In Europe they have free health care, free higher level education, secured retirementa and..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.

    Canada is the same way

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Ron (Houston) said:
    ..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.



    Then why do so many of them want to come here?

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    W8MM said:
    Quote:
    Ron (Houston) said:
    ..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.



    Then why do so many of them want to come here?



    Taxes. Nothing more. Why do so many young Americans want to go to Europe? Not for taxes, I presume . Also, there aren't THAT many Europeans moving to the US. I'd say you have a much bigger problem on the southern border.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    BD 997 said:
    Quote:
    Ron (Houston) said:
    Quote:
    SciFrog said:
    80% taxes in France...

    If you think Porsches are cheap in the US, look at the Jeep and Hummer prices, almost half the european prices...



    In Europe they have free health care, free higher level education, secured retirementa and..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.

    Canada is the same way



    Yes, but having experienced the system in Canada for 17 years, it doesn't work perfectly. In fact, if you live in Canada, you'd better pray you don't get seriously sick. You'll die before you're treated.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    Alan, the main problem is that while financial markets adjust very quickly to fundamental changes in supply and demand, the real world does not....




    You make many astute points. Rehauling infrastructure is a very daunting and exhaustive task (Katrina was a very apt example). However, we must realize that it will have to happen.

    There are some gradual measures that are pushing towards this (hybrids, stricter fuel emission standards every year etc...).
    Like many things (e.g. Katrina) any sufficient preperation beforehand is called being overzealous/cautious and afterwards the lack of proper care is called carelessness

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Don't know if guys commuting in $150K cars should be too bothered by mere $3-4/gall gas prices.....my elders tell me 25 yrs ago similar energy doomsday scenarios were provided by those alleged "experts" one encounters in mass media... ...don't underestimate humans' abilities to change wasteful habits when prices cross various psychological barriers...and abil of SilicVy start-ups to devise new energy solutions if prices justify the risk/reward of new technologies....

    My concerns are more related to cars' fuel tanks increasing to make 10MPG compatible w/an acceptable range for those who often do 100 mi commute roundtrips, e.g. SF-SilicVy, NYC-Greenwich, etc....

    Besides, I recall as a kid 15 yrs ago that Turbo-equiv cars costed $100Kish; even at 3% annual inflation, Turbo should base at $160Kish today. And what were interest rates and lease terms on P/F back in '91? And could one safely commute in a Turbo on a rainy day back in '91? How often would one be bothered to visit dealer for oil changes, etc vs today's low-mtce cars? And what was the N-ring time of a '91 Turbo vs 997TT, esp in the hands of a rennteamer?

    Prob not a birthright for WalMart-types to drive a 10MPG SUV.....in high-cost, low standard of living NYC, many, many low, middle and high-income people (incl 99% of investment bankers) use mass transit to commute....amazing what stifling traffic, $800+/mo Midtown garage rates and expensive toll roads will do to "screen" out private auto use (not unlike what NwptCoast's 73 fwy effectively does).....

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Ron (Houston) said:




    In Europe they have free health care, free higher level education, secured retirementa and..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.



    That's a common misunderstanding. As they say: there is no free lunch. In most European countries you have to pay high taxes and the government claims to take care for your basic needs with all the money they collect. In the US you pay low taxes and have to take care on your own (simplified explanation, but I think that's the basic difference in concept). I for one would be happy to invest the mandatory 1,000 Euro/month contribution for the public retirement fund in an alternative way, because most probably I'll see a negative (!) RoI with the public fund (just one example out of numerous others)

    Some other examples: the German government has increased the taxes on tobacco claiming they need the money to fight terrorism (not kidding!). At the same time they increased taxes on gasoline claiming they need the money to support the underfunded retirement fund.

    Conclusion: less smokers = less security / more energy efficient Diesel-cars on the road = lower retirement payments

    You better stick to your system - maybe with some adjustments to make life easier for the really poor people (health insurance/retirement payments). I'd say lets take care for the really poor people via taxes and let all others care for themselves.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    VKSF said:
    Don't know if guys commuting in $150K cars should be too bothered by mere $3-4/gall gas prices.....



    Right - this thread should be shifted to the Boxster-board

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    We are trying to have a general perspective, not just P owners. We all have friends and family, they might not all be as lucky as a few around here.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Porsche-Jeck said:
    Quote:
    Ron (Houston) said:
    In Europe they have free health care, free higher level education, secured retirementa and..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.



    That's a common misunderstanding. As they say: there is no free lunch.
    I for one would be happy to invest the mandatory 1,000 Euro/month contribution for the public retirement fund in an alternative way, because most probably I'll see a negative (!) RoI with the public fund (just one example out of numerous others)




    If you thought I had painted a bleak enough picture of the future, wait till I throw in a good ole' demographic crisis for good measure!

    You're right about the negative ROI. Anyone who thinks that they will get what the public retirement scheme promised them is a fool. Demographics cannot be beaten.

    Unfortunately, a US-style pension system would not work either. Pension funds are bound to fail if there are many more people disinvesting (i.e. retired and living off payments) than people investing (i.e. saving and pumping money into the system). This results in supply dwarfing demand.
    Demographics dictate two decades of dismal investment performance (in any investment class) in Europe, starting 2010, and there's nothing we can do about it.

    Don't believe it? It has already happened in the past (France, first half of the 20th century. USA, in the 50's and 60's). There is no reason for it not to happen again. It's already starting in Britain, according to The Economist: some pensions funds are already struggling to pay benefits, others are stripping any promise of fixed benefits. A few are trying to stay away from equities/fixed income at all in order to maintain a manageable structure. This all-derivative approach is interesting, but I bet it would not work if everyone was doing it, because there would not be enough counterparties.

    (The US should be doing OK in that regard thanks to its ever-increasing immigrant population - which Europe refuses to have. )

    Ok, ok, I should really start writing that THE SKY IS FALLING!!! book. Maybe I could even earn enough money to survive the upcoming crisis.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Crash said:
    Quote:
    W8MM said:
    Quote:
    Ron (Houston) said:
    ..... I don't mind paying $5 a gallon in here (U.S.) if we could get some of the benefits European people get from their govenment.



    Then why do so many of them want to come here?



    Taxes. Nothing more. Why do so many young Americans want to go to Europe? Not for taxes, I presume . Also, there aren't THAT many Europeans moving to the US. I'd say you have a much bigger problem on the southern border.



    For past 30 yrs or so, 50%+ of Stanford's engineering PhDs have been foreigners, largely Indian.....but couple of Stanford's notable Euro dropouts are Andy von Bechtolsheim (billionaire Sun co-founder, early Google investor) and Sergey Brin (Google co-founder).....keep sending over the smart, ambitious Euros.....

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    SciFrog said:
    We are trying to have a general perspective, not just P owners. We all have friends and family, they might not all be as lucky as a few around here.



    Exactly my point - the Boxster-reference was meant to be irony, not arrogance (difficult to convey in a foreign language ) Sorry for the misunderstanding.

    @ the Groom: agree with you that there is no chance to escape the hazardous financial impact of the demographic development (the stage is set for decades already, but nobody wanted to listen), but I'm still convinced that the government is the lousiest investor you can think of.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    I thought it was really funny Porsche-Jeck, no need to apologise imo..

    Re: Is the price of gasoline increasing all over the world?

    Around 6,50 USD per Gallon over here in Germany.
    Taxes are high over here, VAT is 16%, starting with 2007 it will be 19%.
    From 1 Euro of fuel, the german state takes around 83 or 87%, I don't remember anymore as taxes.

    Since we have a lot of doctors here on Rennteam.com, just an example of how much a doctor gets from state health insurance for treating a patient: doctors are usually paid for 3 months around 35 Euro with some extra Euros for special services. If you get 50 Euro per patient per 3 months, it is pretty good. Private insurances usually pay a little bit more, if you're lucky, you get 3 times as much for a "privately" insured patient.
    As a comparison: me, my wife and one of the kids were pretty ill last year during our stay in Florida. We all three had a serious cold, requiring the help of a doctor and prescriptions. A doctor came to our hotel, the bill was 790 USD plus around 150 USD for the medicine he precscribed. In Germany, my wife (she is a physician) would have earned for the same work around 250 USD from state insured patients and around 350 USD from "private" patients.

    Income tax is up to around 56% (sorry if I don't have the precise number). Of course almost nobody pays that much but something around 35-50% are pretty common.
    It is also interesting to watch that the german media loves to "shoot" against wealthy people, especially lately.
    Do you know how much vacation employees have here in Germany? PAID vacation? Do you know how much they work? In my business, they have to work 40 hours per week. It has been around 38 before and in some companies only 35 hours per week.

    I stop now before I really get angry. Germany sucks lately, the media enjoys to point the finger at the wealthier middle class and the upper class incl. some big companies are leaving Germany to save taxes.
    The state doesn't have money, so much money was practically burned for stupid things. Also you guys have to imagine that Europe is actually run by two governments for each country, as incredible this may sound. We have the national parliament and of course the European parliament. Both cost tremendous amounts of money. This "unity" may have been an advantage for inter-european trade but it has been deadly for state economies and the people in almost all EC countries. The EC stability agreement is also a problem since no member of the Euro zone is allowed to make more annual debt than a certain percentage of the overall gross national product. This doesn't allow states to lower taxes, even if they would make more debt.

    As a business man over here in Germany, I see three crucial problems:
    1. taxes are too high
    2. work/employee protection laws are too strict
    3. people don't have enough money in their pocket to spend

    And of course people are dumb too. Whenever I tell a customer that business has slowed down, he points to the Boxster S or Cayenne in front of my business and smiles.
    They don't understand, people think that if you can afford a Porsche, you're rich. Unfortunately it seems that they never heard of a "company car". Of course I don't experience famine but for 12-14 hours of work daily, sometimes incl. weekends, I expect somehow to earn more than a secretary who goes starts working at 9 am and returns home at 5 pm.

    There is a certain mentality of being "equal" over here. I understand that somebody wants to be "equal" as a human person, no problem with that, I agree. But "equal" wealthiness? Equal income? C'mon.

    Sorry for my ranting but every time this "issue" comes up, I really get very angry.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Porsche-Jeck said:
    I'm still convinced that the government is the lousiest investor you can think of.


    I agree 100%. But it is still necessary in some cases. Nuclear power plants for instance, would never have been developed without government financing and leadership. The costs involved were just too large, the technical outcome was too risky, and the profitability was extremely iffy back when oil and coal were cheaper than dirt. And yet, they will be the cornerstone of our energy policy in the next 50 years.

    The government should just set policy, contract out the exceution within a set time frame, review the performance after a few years and - absolutely essential! - be ready to actually punish contractors that do a poor job of it (ask your friendly neighborhood military contractor about it! ).

    The tax structure is a very important part of this vision. Selective taxation is the best tool to steer the market towards the desired outcome, while still letting businesses compete on their own merits. This is why I think high energy taxes are actually beneficial.








    Quote:
    RC said:
    Income tax is up to around 56% (sorry if I don't have the precise number). Of course almost nobody pays that much but something around 35-50% are pretty common.

    This doesn't allow states to lower taxes, even if they would make more debt.

    The state doesn't have money, so much money was practically burned for stupid things.



    The budget deficit and the national debts are large enough already in the largest EU countries (for our American friends here, despite all the talk about the budget deficit in the US, it's just reached our levels). While I do agree that taxes are way too high and discourage success, states cannot afford to drop them before expenses are slashed significantly. Just cutting taxes without a thorough reorganization will not pull Europe out of the slump. It would just further ruin our already stretched public finances right as the actual needs of an aging population increase.

    Cutting red tape and creating a culture of accountability are the #1 priority. There is a huge lot of room for savings without much effort. Especially in the healthcare sector. Once this is done, then lower taxes.

    Quote:
    RC said:
    As a business man over here in Germany, I see three crucial problems:
    1. taxes are too high
    2. work/employee protection laws are too strict
    3. people don't have enough money in their pocket to spend



    Let me add: 4. sense of entitlement.

    And as you said, jealousy towards those who lifted themselves up in society.

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    Alan, the main problem is that while financial markets adjust very quickly to fundamental changes in supply and demand, the real world does not.

    It takes time to develop energy-saving technologies. It takes time to develop actually usable electric cars. It takes time to develop a service/refuelling network for alternative energies. It takes time to build a large array of nuclear power plants to power those recharging stations. It takes time to build millions of apartment and office buildings downtown. It takes time to build the light rail / subway, electrical, water and sewage infrastructure to support those new buildings.




    Hi Groom. It does take time, yes. I agree. But the scenario that you propose is that all of a sudden, crude oil will disappear. That is not realistic and my main point of contention. Crude oil will become more and more expensive, but it's not an overnight, on-off switch, binary movement. It is a fact that gas is cheap (relative to other sources of energy, regardless of the latest run-up in prices). What Europe has done is to regulate the usage of crude oil via tazation. What is the $3 per gallon extra that you are paying for actually going to? Have you discovered the latest, promising, alternative forms of energy as a result and are implementing that right now? Are you saying that you are investing in that R&D, but you aren't there yet? Is the money going to strengthening the Paris metro and other mass transit systems in France, the Underground in London, etc.? What is the 100% taxation on gas being used for? I agree that you have curtailed the use of crude oil by taxation. But what does it mean to use 1/2 the crude oil that you use? If crude oil increases in price ten fold, you will get hurt just like we will get hurt as a result. Your governments have to show that the extra $3 per gallon is all being used to fund the R&D that you are suggesting will take a long time to mature. But you've been doing this for a long time, I assume. So what has your 100% tax rate got to show for?

    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    Another problem is that while the market will throw money at scientists to develop the technology to adapt to the new high prices, this alone is in no way a guarantee that the technological hurdles will be overcome. Sometimes, it takes a non-obvious workaround that nobody had thought about until a lazy grad student accidentally stumbles upon it a decade later. Sometimes, physical impossibilities remain just that: impossibilities. We can't eat money. We can't produce chemical fertilizers without oil and methane. We can't fit a nuclear power plant under the hood of a car.

    Then there are political problems. You rightly mentioned political opposition to nuclear power plants, in spite of the fact that they are our only hope for the future. Likewise, people would riot if energy taxes were raised, even though it wouldn't cost them much more if they just stopped wasting energy (not making painful sacrifices, just stop wasting). The reorganization of US cities on a more compact basis might cause race riots as the current inner-city inhabitants are evicted to make room for the relocating suburbanites.




    I don't know that, Groom. We are seeing more construction of high-rise residential apartments all over. At least I know that it is occuring even here in sprawling Orange Couny, of all places. We have numerous high-rises on the drawing board, in addition to the ones that have just been built and are under construction. There is a market demand for these units because of their convenience, in spite of our low price of gas, relative to Europe. It didn't take our government to impose a 100% tax rate.

    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    All this means the real world needs a lot of time to adapt to a paradigm shift on the energy market. It means you cannot trust the market to prepare the world for the times ahead. It means it is the duty of the government to step in, fill the void, and prepare the country so as to make the transition as smooth as possible. It is the government's duty to assume the worst-case scenario is going to actually happen, because nobody else does.

    If the government fails its duty, all hell breaks loose. Consider the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Citizens were not ready. Companies were not ready. Local, state and federal authorities were not ready. The rebuilding task is so huge that private business failed. Government failed. Six months after Katrina, NOLA is still a wasteland because of a criminal lack of foresight.
    Now, consider that all major US cities are going to need a NOLA-sized rebuilding effort in 20 years. Let's see how well that works out if we don't plan at least a decade ahead.



    All major cities in the U.S. have mass transit (ie., light rail and bus systems) in place right now. I can speak for California (we have BART in SF, light rail in Sacramento, San Jose, LA/Orange County, San Diego). The same exists in other US cities. We also have intercity rail to most major cities (AMTRAK). Now, we don't have high speed rail, but those ideas have been proposed for decades. High speed rail between Northern and Southern Ca, (ie., SF and LA). I know of proposals for the same in TX and I think FL.

    My point is the infrastructure is in place. If the demand increases (again, oil prices go up to $100/barrel, $200/barrel), these alternate forms of transportation look better and therefore more investment to expand or add service will result.

    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    Regarding high fuel taxes specifically now, I have no idea how long they've been around in Europe. They were there before I was even born.
    Once again, the point is we're not spending more money for our energy. Gas might be twice as expensive because of taxes, but we're using half as much to achieve the same thing. We have to, because the market requires that it cost as much to make the same product in the US with cheap energy, and in Europe with expensive energy.
    The money I spend in taxes instead of in wasting energy stays in the country.




    The money that you would have saved could have gone to more investment that could create more jobs. More jobs means higher wages. Higher wages means more spending. More spending means more jobs. Etc., etc.

    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    I contribute to making the era of affordable energy last longer. Our companies are enjoying newer, more productive machinery today, and are getting an edge over their US competitors for the days energy becomes really expensive. It's a win-win situation.




    On the other hand, one could make an argument that you are delaying the real development of alternative forms of energy. If the 100% taxes are not spent on transportation alone, you are not being as efficient with your transportation dollar as you could be. If you were not taxed so high, gas prices would be lower (obviously) in the short term but demand for crude would rise faster. The price per gallon would overall be lower than what you are paying for, in the net. But the crude oil in the world market would rise because of Eurpoe's increase in overall demand. The world (not just Europe) would now have to meet the demands of the public because of higher prices by now throwing more money into the R&D that the world needs.

    Quote:
    The Groom said:
    The market sees no point in energy efficiency. Whenever a new fuel-saving technology comes up, its manufacturer raises its prices as much as possible in order to capture the value created by this innovation. The result for the end user is the same: Airbus planes might be 10% more fuel-efficient, but they cost 10% more than Boeings.
    But since fossile fuels are definitely in limited supply, you know which option makes more sense strategically. From that you can conclude that the market is not necessarily the best decision-maker.



    Like anything new and innovative, you have to expect that it's prices will be significantly higher. Over time, those prices will come down as more competition enters the field. It's a temporary thing for hybrids to be 50% more expensive then their equivalent gas models.

    Also, there is an additional plus for these new hybid vehicles. They are in high demand. This is because the public in US is aware that it is more environmentally efficient and that is one of the factors they use in purchasing the vehicle. I know of neighbors and coworkers who purchase these vehicles solely for environmental reasons.

    Lastly, think of the non-economic intangible in play here. If you reduce the burden on Europeans by high taxation on fuel, they would feel more free. More free means a happier populace, in general. Economically, they could use the extra monies on other things. Increased spending means more jobs. More jobs means higher wages, etc. etc.

    I hear my 20-day old baby crying.

    Re: Is the price of gasoline increasing all over the world?

    Quote:
    RC said:

    Sorry for my ranting but every time this "issue" comes up, I really get very angry.



    As a pharmacist you have the advantage of quick access to tranquilizers and drugs to bring down your blood pressure once you have watched the "Tagesthemen" (German TV-news for late workers ) - I for one stick to the good old recipe (French redwine ).

    We better prepare ourselves to increase the doses of our medicine thinking of next year (I predict the biggest tax-increases ever in post war history: not only VAT but also income taxes - camouflaged as "health insurance surplus").
    Also the words of the new SPD-chairman made me shudder: his basic credo saying "the government needs more money".
    Geez - in Q1 2006 total tax revenues have grown by 8.5 % (compared to Q1 2005) - now compare this with the GDP-growth and you'll see what's going on

    I'll better stop now - no redwine available at the office

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    Porsche-Jeck said:
    Quote:
    VKSF said:
    Don't know if guys commuting in $150K cars should be too bothered by mere $3-4/gall gas prices.....



    Right - this thread should be shifted to the Boxster-board



    lol!

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Here in the uk the health service is in a crisis and were paying more than ever in taxes!

    The petrol tax is over 70% and the last time petrol was as cheap in the uk as it was in the us was back in 1987 1988..

    We use to have an nhs dental service not anymore, we've been on an pay so much a year insurance sceam, but our dentist sold his business so now were having to pay private, the uk is in a financial mess the debt is over Pounds1 trillion and jobs in the uk are failing very fast....

    basicly my mate who works at a window factory where he makes pvc frames, the boss told him to have an early week holiday otherwise he may have to make more people redundant!

    i also know of my local independant vw/ porsche garage which is on the bring of closure, each time i go in for parts i ask the old guy at the parts desk hows business and he said very quiet, i take my car there for parts and mot's and for jobs i can't do myself i'll be in the s*** if he closes! they are knocking the buildings in the area down so when they buy the building he may call it a day very sad when one of there mechnics has been working for him since he left school and hes now 50!

    i have never been so worse off here in the uk.... mike valentines right when he says people want to move to the us,

    that would be my dream goal to move out of such a nasty hostile place called the united kingdom, the so called land of hope and glory! more like the land of no hope and glory,

    back over 300 years the plague infected the uk, in 2006 theres a new type of plague, the financial plague caused by the uk government's tax system!

    Re: Heard a energy analyst just now

    Quote:
    SoCal Alan said:
    Lastly, think of the non-economic intangible in play here. If you reduce the burden on Europeans by high taxation on fuel, they would feel more free. More free means a happier populace, in general. Economically, they could use the extra monies on other things. Increased spending means more jobs. More jobs means higher wages, etc. etc.

    I hear my 20-day old baby crying.



    Very good point. Also, having more money left over would mean that many more young couples could actually AFFORD to have children, which in-turn would help the demographic situation. Why import foreigners when the home team can do just as good of a job?

    Congrats on your baby

     
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