Crown

At the very least, the head of development for this engine had to know. It's probable that the person he reports to also knew, as well. How high up the knowledge and approval went (decision from the top, or middle manager trying to salvage the engine project and his career) is uncertain at this point. I think there will be a lot of, "what did he know and when did he know it," questioning going on. But, certainly, by late 2014, Winterkorn, and probably other top executives, knew about this engine's "defeat device".

I could just imagine that the team responsible for emissions controls was under a lot of pressure to deliver and realized that they couldn't.  So easy for a few people in the software / firmware development team to alter the software to get the results that they wanted.  It's harder for me to imagine that the corruption went up the chain, and everyone on that chain was willing to risk jail time for a company.

2005 997S Blk/Blk

Playing devil's advocate here.

Winterkorn prefers a centralized management style, where everyone report to someone then at last reports to him, kind of like the old communist party style. 

Piech on the other hand is a more hands on guy, he wants to put his fingers on everything and anything.

The coding of software starts at a lower level. That guy reports to the engine manager that the engines won't pass. Would he reports up the chain and raise losing his job because the company dumped a lot of money into the engine and 'his' project failed? Maybe hide that fact when he reports upwards while ordering the coders to cheat the test cycle.

From this perspective Winterkorn would have never know. Piech on the other hand would. Maybe he knew all along, yet didn't say anything, or even approved the practice. 

He dropped the bomb shell on a board meeting, Winterkorn said we can't do that, but Piech say keep on cheating. Piech wants to remove Winterkorn as a result. But the board ended up siding with Winterkorn and remove Piech instead.

Meanwhile, they try to see and find a solution quietly. Didn't happened. 

Piech is a ruthless man, it is not unimaginable that he won't try to cheat to get to the top. Hell he cheated on his cousin already with the affair and then try to maneuver the share holdings to gain control of the Porsche empire. 

Most of you assume Piech is always the good guy simply because he carries the bloodline of the Porsche family, but every family gene pool will have their shares of bad apples.

I seriously doubt that VW's software engineers went rogue and altered the engine software on their own initiative. It's much more probable and believable that someone higher up ordered it to salvage the engine project and the engineers did it to keep their jobs.

VW was probably too far committed to the engine for upcoming models to scrap the project and start over. They needed the engine, they needed it to hit the performance targets, they needed it to hit the cost targets, and it had to hit the emissions targets. The problem was possibly not even due to the software, but the hardware, however, the only way to "fix" it, without starting over, was software.

​Will be interesting to know more details of what was involved, and how it was found out.

2005 997S Blk/Blk

There's an awful lot of speculation based on very little real knowledge in this thread.  

fritz

fritz:

There's an awful lot of speculation based on very little real knowledge in this thread.  

That's what we do when we sit on a toilet waiting to do the proper business.

fritz:

MKW:

Gnil:

MKW:

EPA fine will be $20 billion and guesses are the US consumer class action suit ( for diminished value as well as deception since US buyers paid MORE for the " helping the environment " turbo diesel  car ) will be at least that amt 

and dont think for a moment that the $ 40-50 billion dollars won't be impacting coming Porsche cars or Porsche R&D or Porsche factory racing budgets for the next 10 yrs 

I agree. It will be huge and the consequences could be disastrous .

to put that amt in perspective ....$40 billion  is not much below VWAG ' s " preferred  stock " market value of $60+billion last Friday, before falling 20% just today !

That would be rather "over-the-top" when compared to GM's $900 million  fine for the "Ignition switch defect linked to 124 deaths":
www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/16/gm-close-settling-us-criminal-case-ignition-switche

latest official VWAG admission is that 11 MILLION vehicles with this bogus software have been sold worldwide and VWAG has set aside $7B JUST  for the recall costs, nevermind the worldwide govt criminal prosecutions and coming billions and billions in  FINES, and expected consumer class action payouts ! 

and the tarnished BRAND image, esp among the majority non enthusiasts ,  will cost them billions in what they can charge for their cars in the future ...its a vicious cycle isn't it ?!  Just here in the US ( which the highest VW branded car officials back in the Fathetland said has been their persistent problem child though they were cleaning up elsewhere , ) they were just turning the corner on the terrible sales and quality image of the past decade...and then ...wham ...this happens !

Wouldn't want to be a long suffering US VW dealer here right now . 

fritz:

There's an awful lot of speculation based on very little real knowledge in this thread.  

A big part of Rennteam is speculation.  Especially, before official product announcements.

2005 997S Blk/Blk

VW Troubles Could Become Audi And Porsche Problems http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1100154_vw-troubles-could-become-audi-and-porsche-problems

SoCal Alan:

fritz:

There's an awful lot of speculation based on very little real knowledge in this thread.  

A big part of Rennteam is speculation.  Especially, before official product announcements.

our speculating here is just our shared ventng of knowing that this has very suddenly and most probably affected Porsche's ambitious  plans for some of the enthusiast -focused small volume versions of their 911 and Cayman based successors in 9x2.1 and .2 . 

fritz:

RC:

I just realized, after some thinking, that the problem VW has is actually much bigger.

Why? Well, they just acknowledged having manipulated 11 Mio. cars worldwide. So far, fine.

Now they put aside around 6,5 Billion EUR to take care of necessary mods on cars (to achieve the emissions tests) and for positive image campaigns. So far, so good. Again.

Now here is the tricky question: Since their cars haven't achieved the emissions tests with the specs (I assume) advertised, how will these cars achieve the specs (torque, power, performance, etc.) with the implemented new emissions mods? I highly doubt it.

So if a customer bought, let's say a VW Diesel with 200 hp and suddenly, this car will offer 170 hp only because of the emissions mods, will the customer accept that or will he demand a car according to the specs he paid for?

I think you are getting my point. VW could be in a real legal shitload here and I'm not even sure they realize i yet.

The emissions tests do not include a wide-open throttle, high-rev and full power element, so there would have been no "need" to manipulate the engine mapping for those conditions.
What I suspect would more likely to happen is that the cars could be re-rated to higher emissions classes, so that they do not benefit from lower operating tax rates in those markets where such taxes vary with emissions output.  

This particular question is answered in an interview cited below of the people who discovered the discrepancy between test-bench and real-world NOx emissions. The manipulation was obviously intended to reduce NOx emissions to compliant levels during the bench tests, but real world fuel consumption and power outputs were actually better than during the prescribed EPA test cycle.
Quote:
"...... it turns the emissions controls on for EPA testing and off for real-world driving. Somewhat ironically, the presumed benefits of turning off the controls for normal driving include improved fuel economy and engine power."

http://blog.caranddriver.com/how-volkswagen-got-busted-for-gaming-epa-diesel-emissions-standards/

fritz

What executives at vw will resign first, and if they do will vw cover still pay their tremendous legal bills ?

This VW embroglio, combined with the massive refugee mess, the disaster known as the Berlin airport, the premature and politically shutting down of their nuclear power plants, embarrassment of defective german army rifles, and the Greek bail out saga cumulatively make Germany look like it is being run by squirrels.

There are a couple more interesting insights into the background to this situation in the Car and Driver blog linked to below.

For instance:
"The revelation of this emissions subterfuge answers at least two questions about VW’s mighty little diesel. The first concerns urea injection, which every other modern diesel uses to pass emissions tests. (The 2015 TDI models have a new engine and urea-injection systems but for some reason still contained the devious code, according to the EPA’s statement.) The urea-injection systems help to neutralize NOx emissions, but they also add weight and cost to the car and also saddle buyers with yet another tank of liquid that must be monitored. If you run out of this diesel exhaust fluid, it’s like running out of fuel—on trucks with such systems, running dry on urea triggers a severe limp-home mode with a 5-mph speed limiter. That’s how seriously the EPA takes NOx.

Everyone wondered how VW met emissions standards while foregoing urea injection for the cited 2009–2014 models. As it turns out, they didn’t. It wasn’t magical German engineering. Just plain old fraud.

The second question concerned fuel economy. It’s been widely noted that four-cylinder TDIs tend to smash their EPA fuel-economy estimates in real-world driving. The last TDI Jetta SportWagen I drove was rated at 42 mpg highway, but on 60-mph two-lane roads I averaged more like 50 mpg. That’s a huge difference. Did running noncompliant emissions improve fuel economy? That’s possible. And if so, that raises an interesting question: When the cheater VWs emitted too much NOx, were they also emitting a lot less CO2 thanks to improved economy? Maybe the good doesn’t offset the bad, but it’s something to consider."

http://blog.caranddriver.com/the-vw-diesel-scandal-is-much-worse-than-a-recall-its-outright-deceit/

In view of the points highlighted in the above text, you have to wonder how the perpetrators of the deceit came to think that they had a high likelihood of getting away with it? (Though they did for 5 years).

fritz

" the most expensive act of stupidity in the history of the car industry " per a German paper ....and that is really saying something in an industry well known for it

let's also not forget it took 20  years ( basically one generation ) before Audi's bogusly damaged reputation here in the US ( just as it was gaining tremendous traction in  the peak years of baby boomer car buying ) could be repaired ...and it never could be by product or PR , really, just by  the passage of time until their children ( youngest Gen X and older millenials ) became buyers 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34328689

MKW:

" the most expensive act of stupidity in the history of the car industry " per a German paper ....and that is really saying something in an industry well known for it ! 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34328689

Not sure about that - looking at Takata.

CGX car nut:

MKW:

" the most expensive act of stupidity in the history of the car industry " per a German paper ....and that is really saying something in an industry well known for it ! 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34328689

Not sure about that - looking at Takata.

VW is a global retail brand name 70 + years old and the parent name of Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini, Seat, Porsche  ...Takata is one of many many " insider " suppliers ...BIG difference going forward ...it is not as if car buyers are actively avoiding Takata containing vehicles  in the car they are buying today or tomorrow ! 

Takata found problems later and glossed over them...criminal 

VW couldnt meet emissions demands vs performance  their competitors could and just faked it . criminal and a big disappointment for a " performance " oriented car company to its many decades of loyal buyers ! 

It's getting closer to home:

News: @EPA official tells @detroitnews the agency is now expanding its @VW diesel review to 3.0L V6 engine used in '16 Audi, Porsche Cayenne

RC:

If I had a lot of money and if I would be someone who loves risks, I would probably take my chance and buy BMW and Daimler stocks at the current (or better lower...over the next days?) values. Long-term gain should be nice but I do not expect any gains soon because it may take weeks or months until all investigations are over.

Btw: A customer of mine just told me that he bought VW, at a very high recommendation of his bank, last week at around 165 EUR. Now the stock is worth 127 EUR, 38 EUR less and he hasn't sold yet.  He put all half of his life savings into the stock (not sure how much this is but definitely a lot for him), poor guy. I told him to ask a lawyer if he can do something about it but I highly doubt it.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Ford Mustang GT500 Shelby SVT (2014), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

 

That is some seriously irresponsible investment advice.  You should never have that much invested in a single stock.  Professional financial advisors are subject to having their certification revoked if a client has even 50% of their investments in a single stock.  

Some people are just dumb to be gambling on the share market. 

2003 Cayenne Turbo

RC:

tso:

I thought I made a smart move yesterday...not so smart but out again with limited damage 

Stay away from car stocks for now, unless you really have a long breath and a risky nature. If this spreads (other car companies affected as well), we could see a very very nasty drop in car stock values.

On the positive side: All that money exiting car stocks needs to go somewhere. My guess is: Tech and banks. 

Tesla stock holding up very well, could this be the final catalyst for electric cars?

fritz:

There are a couple more interesting insights into the background to this situation in the Car and Driver blog linked to below.

For instance:
"The revelation of this emissions subterfuge answers at least two questions about VW’s mighty little diesel. The first concerns urea injection, which every other modern diesel uses to pass emissions tests. (The 2015 TDI models have a new engine and urea-injection systems but for some reason still contained the devious code, according to the EPA’s statement.) The urea-injection systems help to neutralize NOx emissions, but they also add weight and cost to the car and also saddle buyers with yet another tank of liquid that must be monitored. If you run out of this diesel exhaust fluid, it’s like running out of fuel—on trucks with such systems, running dry on urea triggers a severe limp-home mode with a 5-mph speed limiter. That’s how seriously the EPA takes NOx.

Everyone wondered how VW met emissions standards while foregoing urea injection for the cited 2009–2014 models. As it turns out, they didn’t. It wasn’t magical German engineering. Just plain old fraud.

The second question concerned fuel economy. It’s been widely noted that four-cylinder TDIs tend to smash their EPA fuel-economy estimates in real-world driving. The last TDI Jetta SportWagen I drove was rated at 42 mpg highway, but on 60-mph two-lane roads I averaged more like 50 mpg. That’s a huge difference. Did running noncompliant emissions improve fuel economy? That’s possible. And if so, that raises an interesting question: When the cheater VWs emitted too much NOx, were they also emitting a lot less CO2 thanks to improved economy? Maybe the good doesn’t offset the bad, but it’s something to consider."

http://blog.caranddriver.com/the-vw-diesel-scandal-is-much-worse-than-a-recall-its-outright-deceit/

In view of the points highlighted in the above text, you have to wonder how the perpetrators of the deceit came to think that they had a high likelihood of getting away with it? (Though they did for 5 years).

My Skoda has the European spec VW 2.0 TDI engine, the fuel consumption is almost identical to the tiny Toyota Yaris 1.4D that I had previously, on exactly the same commuter journey. That's pretty impressive for a fairly large car. The EU are now investigating whether or not VW Group cheated the EU regs as well to achieve this remarkable efficiency. If it has, and legally my car has to be modified to make it less efficient I'll want compensation or my money back, as I bought the car for it's economy, pure and simple.

--

Porsche Boxster GTS Carrara white / Skoda Octavia Mk.3 daily drive

So just like Libor - this will run and run - Bob Diamond survived a few days then.....

So if my VW diesel is rated at xx and I'm taxed accordingly, then it's re-rated yy and I have to stump up the tax (& back tax) how is that going to work? 

Clearly VW can't recall the car and make it as efficient as it was advertised so I've effectively been mis-sold a product.

Just like PPI.

991 Carrera Black\Black, XC90 Black\Black, 120 Cab Black\Coral Red - 2 kids, 1 dog

bridggar:

So just like Libor - this will run and run - Bob Diamond survived a few days then.....

So if my VW diesel is rated at xx and I'm taxed accordingly, then it's re-rated yy and I have to stump up the tax (& back tax) how is that going to work?

Clearly VW can't recall the car and make it as efficient as it was advertised so I've effectively been mis-sold a product.

Just like PPI.

Oh no.  The next rash of annoying junk phone calls. "Have you been mis sold a VW group car. We can recover compensation for you......

Porsche Boxster GTS Carrara white / Skoda Octavia Mk.3 daily drive

GM Austin:

RC:

If I had a lot of money and if I would be someone who loves risks, I would probably take my chance and buy BMW and Daimler stocks at the current (or better lower...over the next days?) values. Long-term gain should be nice but I do not expect any gains soon because it may take weeks or months until all investigations are over.

Btw: A customer of mine just told me that he bought VW, at a very high recommendation of his bank, last week at around 165 EUR. Now the stock is worth 127 EUR, 38 EUR less and he hasn't sold yet.  He put all half of his life savings into the stock (not sure how much this is but definitely a lot for him), poor guy. I told him to ask a lawyer if he can do something about it but I highly doubt it.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Ford Mustang GT500 Shelby SVT (2014), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

 

That is some seriously irresponsible investment advice.  You should never have that much invested in a single stock.  Professional financial advisors are subject to having their certification revoked if a client has even 50% of their investments in a single stock.  

It wasn't me (thanks god, I would never put half my life savings in a car stock ) but VW is a "national institution" here and was highly recommended by many banks. I am pretty sure that if it is true and that customer of mine put half his money into VW stocks only, a lawyer may be able to help (this is why I recommended it). However, I think that every customer needs to sign some sort of advisory document (personally, I have a general waiver because I cannot lose time for this crap and they categorized me into a professional trader group ), so the bank is in the green when something bad happens. Only a lawyer can help him though.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Ford Mustang GT500 Shelby SVT (2014), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

dreamcar:

bridggar:

So just like Libor - this will run and run - Bob Diamond survived a few days then.....

So if my VW diesel is rated at xx and I'm taxed accordingly, then it's re-rated yy and I have to stump up the tax (& back tax) how is that going to work?

Clearly VW can't recall the car and make it as efficient as it was advertised so I've effectively been mis-sold a product.

Just like PPI.

Oh no.  The next rash of annoying junk phone calls. "Have you been mis sold a VW group car. We can recover compensation for you......

Oh, I am pretty sure that some shitload of this will hit banks but since it wasn't "common knowledge" that VW did what they did, I doubt that lawyers have a real chance to do something about it. Oh well, lawyers will certainly make a lot of money from this anyway, even if their clients to do get their money back or whatever.  

We have a saying here: When two are fighting, the lawyer is the happy third party.  

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Ford Mustang GT500 Shelby SVT (2014), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

The real damage is going to:

   - all employees of VW and vendors/suppliers (this are thousands of people and family members)
   - German Tax payers (like always we have to clean it up when employees loosing jobs
   - Shareholders loosing a fortune of money while having trust to the "illegally" operating board and executives
   - impact the entire German car industry 
   - impact the entire image about Germany

Therefore consequences must be extremely hard towards people in charge of this decision. As decision of fraught was taken years ago, it should impact Piech and  entire subsequently decision tree below. I should not be a fine of money - valuating the damage it must be prison!

Agent Provocateur:

Some people are just dumb to be gambling on the share market. 

Anything on the stock market is gambling. I do not get your point. 

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Ford Mustang GT500 Shelby SVT (2014), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Lars997:

The real damage is going to:

   - all employees of VW and vendors/suppliers (this are thousands of people and family members)
   - German Tax payers (like always we have to clean it up when employees loosing jobs
   - Shareholders loosing a fortune of money while having trust to the "illegally" operating board and executives
   - impact the entire German car industry 
   - impact the entire image about Germany

Therefore consequences must be extremely hard towards people in charge of this decision. As decision of fraught was taken years ago, it should impact Piech and  entire subsequently decision tree below. I should not be a fine of money - valuating the damage it must be prison!

 

Piech has been already "impacted" by the falling stock value since he is a shareholder. It will be difficult to prove if he knew about the illegal activities or not. Same goes to most CEOs at VW.

The damage is quite substantial indeed and I do not think that the mentioned 18 billion and the currently 6.5 billion will be enough to "repair" the damage. I'd say that this will cost VW at least 30 billion over the next five years or so and even worse, we don't know what to expect from BMW and Mercedes yet. So far, there is no indication that they have tricked as well but just imagine if another major German car manufacturer did the same as VW...this would be total disaster.

So right now, I would stay away from any car stocks but apparently there are some very courageous people playing the markets (look at the VW stock today). I hate to say this but I think the VW stock will drop under 100 EUR...

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Ford Mustang GT500 Shelby SVT (2014), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)