Crown

Current Drivers' Championship Standings (after Brazil):

Alonso 246 pts
Webber 238 pts
Vettel 231 pts
Hamilton 222 pts

Suppose the 4 title contenders finish in the same positions in Abu Dhabi as they did today:

Alonso 246 pts + 15 pts = 261 pts
Webber 238 pts + 18 pts = 256 pts
Vettel 231 pts + 25 pts = 256 pts
Hamilton 222 pts + 12 pts = 234 pts

Alonso would become champion ...

But, it appears that if Vettel is leading the race with Webber second, Red Bull wouldn't impose team orders (since they are illegal) but there would be a hope that Vettel would 'do the right thing' without needing to be told what to do.

If that occurred, then the outcome would be:

Alonso 246 pts + 15 pts = 261 pts
Webber 238 pts + 25 pts = 263 pts
Vettel 231 pts + 18 pts = 249 pts
Hamilton 222 pts + 12 pts = 234 pts

Webber would become champion ...

Will Webber and Vettel have a chat during the week ahead about what they will do or perhaps there is simply no need for such a conversation? Maybe Vettel will agree to move over if Webber agrees to quit at the end of the season 

I guess the issue is whether Vettel would prefer his team mate to win instead of Alonso - there's no love lost between those three guys - but I'm sure Red Bull won't be best pleased with Vettel unless he 'does the right thing'.

Looking forward to the grand finale at the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi  It's been a thrilling season. It's been so close and will be decided in the last race with 4 drivers still in contention. We couldn't have asked for a better season 

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In Abu Dhabi, Vettel may help Webber win the title if Vettel cannot do so himself:

news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9165118.stm

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Christian Horner almost said the same thing and if SV wants to drive for RB then I'm sure that he would do the right thing. It's a team sport.

Excellent analysis on the Vettel dilemma from the BBC's Andrew Benson:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/andrewbenson/2010/11/in_the_balance_in_the_desert.html#more

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Drivers' Championship Standings Table:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/standings/default.stm

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Alonso 100% confident of winning the title:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9167126.stm

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Tactically, I would expect that, if Vettel is leading the race with Webber in second place and Alonso in third place, Vettel would wait till almost the very last corner before letting Webber though. Clearly Vettel will want to wait till the latest possible time before giving up the title fight since the reliability of Alonso's car should not be taken for granted till the last possible moment.

Alonso will try to hang onto Webber with the smallest possible gap - so that it is very hard for Vettel to let Webber though without a small opportunity becoming available for Alonso to challenge for second place.

This knife-edge finale is simply delicious

I am loving every moment of this season's epic conclusion

I just re-read Andrew Benson's blog - it's just a brilliant analysis of the current position and the factors at play.

One thing not mentioned in this article is that Red Bull has never had a F1 Champion before. It will really hurt Vettel to let Webber become the first F1 World Champion in Red Bull's history.

I'm also suspecting that Webber will either retire at the end of the season or defend his title for 1 more year before quitting Red Bull.
 
After all, Webber will never drive for McLaren (Hamilton and Button aren't going anywhere), Ferrari (Alonso would veto this), Mercedes (Schumi and Rosberg are well set there). Renault is not as fast as Red Bull (even with the same engine). So once Webber leaves Red Bull, his days of driving a competitive car are effectively over. If he remains in F1, it will be simply to improve his bank balance.

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An interesting article on the F1 website about how many engines each driver has used immediately before the Brazilian race

http://www.formula1.com/news/features/2010/11/11469.html

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Interesting quotation from Dietrich Mateschitz in Austrian newspaper Kliene Zeitung:
 
“Let the two drivers race and what will be will be. if Alonso wins we will have been unlucky. I predict a Hollywood ending. Worst case scenario we don’t become champion? We’ll do it next year. But our philosophy stays the same because this is sport and it must remain sport. We don’t manipulate things like Ferrari do.”

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2010/11/red-bull-boss-no-driver-favouritism-i-dont-care-if-we-lose/

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BBC's Martin Brundle on the situation before the race in Abu Dhabi

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9167961.stm

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OMG I would like to have Webber take it. It will be a tough pill for Vettel but he let it slip by being slightly less consistent. Webber shined there and it contributed greatly to the constructors title.

Massa was a huge disappointment IMO but i guess ferrari still do their stupid backup driver and run one driver to the max like it's the special olympics.

CANT WAIT FOR THE FINAL RACE!!!

indeed shifting is ancient technology - so is a fuel burning engine..  I happen to like both :) 

Atzporsche:

OMG I would like to have Webber take it. It will be a tough pill for Vettel but he let it slip by being slightly less consistent. Webber shined there and it contributed greatly to the constructors title.

Aaron that's not quite right - Vettel made few mistakes but was very unlucky with mechanical failures.

Webber, on the other hand, had no car problems to speak of but made many driving errors.

Vettel is the better driver by some distance and it would be a travesty if he had to hand the title to Webber.

"Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn out."

Cant wait for the race and one thing is for sure Hamilton will be pushing his hussy extremely hard, maybe bumper cars with Alonso too...

throt

"I didn't do it"

easy_rider911:

Tactically, I would expect that, if Vettel is leading the race with Webber in second place and Alonso in third place, Vettel would wait till almost the very last corner before letting Webber though. Clearly Vettel will want to wait till the latest possible time before giving up the title fight since the reliability of Alonso's car should not be taken for granted till the last possible moment.

Alonso will try to hang onto Webber with the smallest possible gap - so that it is very hard for Vettel to let Webber though without a small opportunity becoming available for Alonso to challenge for second place.

This knife-edge finale is simply delicious

There is lots of twists and turns that could happen!

The problem is how is Vettel going to be able to let Webber pass on the last laps without arising suspicion to it being deliberate?

And what if Webber wants to try to pass Vettel early if he can, and not leave it to Vettel's desition on the last laps wether he wins or not? will Vettel and Webber duke it out risking a crash, or will Vettel back down?

And if Alonso is breathing down Webber's neck at that point in time, how is Vettel going to hold Alonso? Alonso would have to try to pass or die trying since its his last chance, and Vettel can risk crashing Alonso out after letting Webber pass. That would not look good.

I would put Massa in the picture, wheter if he would play a factor helping Alonso, but his performance is so ridiculously lousy, he will likely be fighting with the Force Indias during the race 

Also Webber and Alonso get along very very well and are good friends, would be interesting to see a dog fight between them in the last laps to see what happens. Its the last race so its all or nothing.

And there will be a lot of pressure this weekend, the drivers must feel it. And Webber has made some big mistakes this season. Vettel also has made very poor choices when under pressure that has also hurt him, though not as much. And Alonso in turn has thrived under pressure and has been showing nothing but confidence on his posibilities, even after he was back 47 points only 7 o 8 races ago, when he was still saying to his team that they were going to win the championship.

Then there is the reliability of the engines, everybody is on used engines I believe. Alonso in fact will be using the engine he used in Monza for the win, and a DNF is very posible. Also he has barely any spares for practice on the weekend for example because in Brazil, the reason his engine broke down in practice and his laps time were so low during that practice is because he had to resort to using a very old engine that has lost power, and ended up breaking down before the practice session was over.

And Abu Dabi may be a track that may favor Ferrari, or at least not as advantageous to RedBull as Brazil. So the Qualifying is going to be the most interestingn of the season, there is so much at play in this qualifying. Imagine if the RedBulls allow Alonso to get pole, then the second place gets the dirty side of the track and Alonso has wide open track since the start of the race. And Alonso in turn cannot risk not getting 3rd place on qualifying, because if he gets stuck behind a slower car and looses too much time (like what happened Hulkenberg this weekend), he may loose any chance at catching up with the RedBulls, and then its on RedBull team's hand wether tey win or not.

If you ask me, I think Vettel's car will not be performing to its maximum that weekend, if you know what I mean, and Webber will take the lead early, while Vettel blocks the pack. Call me suspicious but thats how I see it. And I don't see anything wrong with that either.

Personally, team orders rule is a joke, and hope that its abolished by next year. Webber has the best chances, did a great season, maybe his last, and Vettel should help Webber win the championship. Vettel will have plenty of chances.

Even if Red Bull needs a team order to win the drivers championship, it would still be fair. Alonso would have 7 points less if not for their team order.

Eunice:

Even if Red Bull needs a team order to win the drivers championship, it would still be fair. Alonso would have 7 points less if not for their team order.

They ALL have extra points from team orders, lets remember the "lets save fuel guys" incident with McLaren, or Horner ripping the new evolved front wing from Webber's car to put it on Vettel's for the race, etc, etc, and many many more "team orders" that we don't get to know of. The only difference with Ferrari is that there were complete screw ups in the way they did it making it too obvious, like if they were amateurs. Like if Massa was going to be a match for Alonso's race pace, Alonso would of won anyway, but they wanted to avoid the risk of crashing against each other in the meanwhile. Thats why the team order rule is a joke, it cannot be enforced in practice and there are team orders in diffrent ways every weekend, its pure hipocracy.

If points are mega tight then I think everything should be allowed in the very last race, then all drivers know at the start of season what's got to be done to avoid any upset's..Its a no brainer really that SV must let MW through if the positions are the same as Sunday, they are a team and they want the double which is the icing on the cake to say the least..

throt

"I didn't do it"

Mark Hughes's article on the season finale:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9168814.stm

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Red Bull cannot risk Alonso grabbing second place if they handicap Vettel too much.

Plus, why should Vettel not push for the title himself until it becomes virtually certain at the final lap or penultimate lap that Alonso's car and Webber's car will both last till the end of the race? All three are on their last engines. An engine failure could happen at any time.

Webber had a water pump problem in Brazil which caused overheating. He had to nurse that car home.
 
Alonso has had a lot of bad luck regarding engines throughout the season so he has had to use his quota of 8 engines more quickly than he would have preferred. Ferrari has performed some minor miracles by rebuilding old engines to keep Alonso's challenge this season alive. Old engines have been used in practice sessions - one engine even died in Friday Practice in Brazil.

At this stage, no car's mechanical reliability can be taken for granted.

I am certain that each of the 3 teams with title contenders will have done some very precise and careful calculations about the exact distance and running time of each engine used. And they will be taking no chances. It would not surprise me if they use a particular engine in both practice sessions on Friday and then a different engine in Saturday practice, qualification and the race on Sunday (since there is insufficient time to change engines between Saturday practice and qualification and the cars enter parc ferme conditions once qualification is underway).

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Here's a great statistical summary of each of the 4 drivers, this season and beyond.

http://www.formula1.com/news/features/2010/11/11498.html

indeed shifting is ancient technology - so is a fuel burning engine..  I happen to like both :) 

FA Career stats: 156 races; 2 drivers’ titles; 26 wins; 63 podiums; 20 poles; 18 fastest laps;  823 points.

MW Career stats: 156 races; 0 drivers' titles; 6 wins; 20 podiums; 6 pole positions; 6 fastest laps; 407.5 points.

SV Career stats: 61 races; 0 drivers' titles; 9 wins; 18 podiums; 14 pole positions; 6 fastest laps; 356 points.

LH Career stats: 70 races; 1 drivers’ title; 14 wins; 35 podiums; 18 pole positions; 7 fastest laps; and 478 points

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indeed shifting is ancient technology - so is a fuel burning engine..  I happen to like both :) 

Very intersting to see them all together like that 

Interesting the number of poles per races by LH and podiums, though he is the only one of those drivers with the advantage of starting in F1 already in a top team and not have to work his way up.

And also interesting the number of fastest laps per races of FA (especially taking into account that two years he spent in a back-of-the-grid Renault raking up races with no posible results)

And SV has achieved more or less that same than MW in less than half of the races.

Perosnally, and this is my opinion, there are two top drivers in the grid right now distinct form the rest, Hamilton and Alonso. Then behind comes another group composed of the likes of Webber, Button, Massa, Rosberg who will never be true champion material with that innate talent and all around virtues (fast pace consistent, able to develop a car, cool under pressure, extracts the maximun potential of the car in all circumstances, starts to shine early in the career already, etc) . And in between there is an intermerdiate group composed of Vettel and Kubica, which are not at the level of Hamilton or Alonso for different reasons, but they do have the potential to be  a top driver, posibly, but its still to be proven. Of course each can have its own clasification and it could be argued all day, but thats how I clearly see it.

I think you are somewhat right with that. However i think there's a lot of talent breeding that will start next season to really mix things up for the champions. We have Vettel, Rosberg, the other two germans and the Kubica to grow immensely race by race

indeed shifting is ancient technology - so is a fuel burning engine..  I happen to like both :) 

 Rosberg surprised everyone I thinkt, he had to endure a lot of pressure, having Schumacher come into his team, the big start back into F1 to challenge for the title some even though, eclipsing him already before the season even started, and inspite that he was consistent race after race, and consistently and unequivocally outperformed Schumacher. What we don't know is how competive is the Mercedes to be able to fully judge Rosberg though, what he would of been able to do ina  RedBull for example, if only next year the Mercedes will be at a level to compete, would make the seaso even more interesting.

But I really really hope Kubica gets his opportunity with a top car, he more than deserves it. And he has shown his potential, I don't knw why year after year he is not landing in a top team 

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IMvHO there are only 3 'complete' drivers in F1 (who can consistently extract the maximum from the car by relentlessly driving lap after lap at the limit, who can drive an imperfect car to a race position that the car does not deserve, who can develop the car through the season, who just don't make mistakes no matter how intense the pressure, who have colossal mental toughness and who have the single-minded ruthlessness it takes to win):

Alonso, Schumacher (the original guy ), Kubica

Extremely quick (but who aren't able to develop the car and who can make mistakes under pressure):

Hamilton, Vettel, Rosberg (all 3 are also v quick in the rain but IMHO Hamilton & Vettel are still immature as people)

Can be quick only if the car and all other factors are just the way they like it:

Button, Webber, Massa, Barrichello (but Button is IMHO far better than the other 3)

Apart from Trulli, the remaining drivers in F1 are just too inconsistent or too new to be able to form any meaningful opinion about them.

Trulli is an enigma. He can be very quick in qualification and then awful in the race. This year he has just been slow throughout because of the inferior Lotus car he is driving.

Just my 2 cents 

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I personally agree with you in everything you said Easy. Maybe except on that part about Kubica, it may be very true, but I still haven't seen enough of him at the top to make that statement myself, and not because of his fault either, but rather because of the cars he has had to drive, which made his performances very inconsistent from GP to GP, and without the posibility to prove himself, ie. being able to make hat tricks at a GP, fighting one to one with the top drivers during the race, having back to back consistent results, etc.  Its a shame, not only because he has shown glimpses of great potential as a posible complete top F1 driver, but because it is said that he is a great guy off the track too. Alonso is a friend of Kubica since way back, he is one of Alonso's best friends amongst the drivers, and he always speaks very well of him on that personal level. He seems like a humble down to earth driver. Alonso has also said on ocasion that Kubica one of the best drivers in F1.

The other day I read an interview Hamilton gave, and he mentioned something that really surprised me, he said that he now has a very good relationship with Alonso, and that when Alonso is in Zurich for example, they send each other SMS and get together... who would have though 

Kubica joining Alonso at Ferrari next season would seem to make most sense.... but who knows what politics are prevailing in these matters...

"Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn out."

John H:

Kubica joining Alonso at Ferrari next season would seem to make most sense.... but who knows what politics are prevailing in these matters...

 

Could you imagine being a team mate with Alonso.