Crown

After the rain caused mayhem in South Korea, the next race is in less than 2 weeks time in Sao Paulo at Interlagos.

While the 5 main protagonists are all mathematically still in contention, realistically, Button is already out with only 189 points.

Only 25 points separates the top 4. IMvHO it's a battle between Alonso and the 2 Red Bull guys. Hamilton is right there with 210 points but his car is not fast enough. He depends on the misfortune of others to get on the podium.

Red Bull's reliability has been poor. The car is very fast but only some pole positions have been converted into race wins. It's not consistent enough. Webber is calm and relaxed but he is making mistakes under pressure. Vettel also makes mistakes. Plus the team is splitting its resources and effort behind both men.

Alonso is a model of consistency right now. He is not putting a foot wrong. Ferrari is totally focussed on supporting his title bid. Even Massa has been forced into serving this cause. Alonso has the mental toughness to cope with the pressure. IMvHO, this title is only going to one place.

http://www.formula1.com/results/driver/2010/

While reliability cannot be taken for granted, the reality is that Ferrari has made one of the most reliable cars on the grid. Vettel needs Alonso not to finish 1 or 2 races or he needs to outscore Alonso by 13 points per race. That's a tough ask.

Webber only has a 11 point deficit. That can be easily turned around. Whereas Hamilton is 21 points behind in a slower car. That will be tough. Hamilton will be relying on luck more than anything else.

It's gonna be fascinating to watch how this season ends. Once again, it will go right down to the wire.

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I was looking at the 'driver's points scores' in Easy's link and it's interesting to note the differentials between team-mates...

Of those still in contention.. Alonso is well ahead - 88 points to Hamilton's 21 and Webber's 14.

But the "stand out" performance is undoubtedly that of Kubica at 105 points...

He must surely be in contention for a move to a stronger team, maybe Ferrari, next year....

"Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn out."

Kubica has certainly had a very strong season and i hope he will get a top 3 car to compete seriously next season. He's one of the best this season! Silent but consistent is key.

indeed shifting is ancient technology - so is a fuel burning engine..  I happen to like both :) 

Just fyi, Kubica has already announced that he is staying with Renault F1 in 2011  

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 There's a point where belief starts to weigh heavily on results. Right now, Ferrari believes they're going to win this thing, or at least their driver will.

And right now, I sense that Red Bull believes everything always goes wrong for them.

Webber could easily win this if he has the car. But Alonso has the car. And the momentum.

That's powerful stuff, but I'm still pulling for Webber to win. He's done some amazing driving this year -- Korea aside -- and I'd love to see him extend his great drives two more races.

"When you design a car around the customer's wishes, you get cup holders. When you design a car around innovative thinking, you get a Porsche."

Alonso has all he needs, the car, the support by Ferrari and the momentum.

Hard to see how he could lose the championship now.

It's Alonso's title unless he loses it.

"Form follows function"

James Allen on current state of play

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2010/10/the-world-championship-fight-analysis-of-the-state-of-play/

Mark Hughes on the fight within Red Bull

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9127533.stm

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Red Bull won't favour any driver yet:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/87776

IMO this is mistake, because even if Vettel wins both races and Alonso is second, is Alonso still champion.. My bet is Alonso will win WDC this year..

 They have already said that they will build next year's team around Vettel, that´s as close a team orders as you can get, i.e. now any other  driver that signs in that team that is not Vettel knows what to expect, he will play second fiddle. Though this year they will likely play it out as it goes, who ever stands the best chance will be favoured, and that will probably be decided in the next race.

Webber is 34 years old with a mediocre F1 career since 2001 till 2009 when he won his first race in Germany and then a second race in Brazil.

His 2010 season has been much better but mostly because of the car and his determination to make the most of what could be one of the few chances he ever gets to win the title.

http://www.formula1.com/teams_and_drivers/drivers/21/

By contrast, Sebastian Vettel is only 23 years old with mostly successful seasons since he entered F1. He won his first race in his first full season in F1 in 2008 in a Toro Rosso car. 4 race wins in 2009. Multiple pole positions and race wins in 2010.

http://www.formula1.com/teams_and_drivers/drivers/822/

Given their respective track records and given their ages (and the fact that you can invest in Vettel for years to come), is it any surprise that RBR want to build a team around Vettel? Webber is lucky to have this chance to compete this season ...

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Unfortunately for Vettel if he doesn't win the title this year, which is unlikely IMO, most probably he won't have another go next year.

I consider RBR as a team that won't be consistently challenging for the title. Next year I see McLaren coming back and Mercedes giving a strong challenge to Ferrari and all 3 main teams eclipsing Red Bull.

Moreover, Mateschitz  may decide to fold his F1 operation down and sell his teams at some point in the not distant future.

I hope Vettel matures more at RBR and moves to Mercedes in 2012 to replace Schumacher and give them the championship.

"Form follows function"

I agree that it is very unlikely for Vettel to win this year but I don't agree with your 2011 prediction about RBR. RBR had the fastest car in the second half of 2009 and they were catching Brawn GP race by race. Button just about managed to hang onto the lead at the end of 2009.

In 2010, the RBR car has been by far the best car throughout the whole season. No matter what Ferrari and McLaren has tried to do, RBR has managed to stay ahead.

It's important to remember that RBR uses a Renault customer engine. It is not the most powerful engine in F1 due to the engine development freeze. Cars with a Mercedes engine have a small advantage. So everything RBR has achieved on the car has been because of the amazing chassis designed by Adrian Newey. The guy is a genius.

Next year I think it will again be a close fight between RBR and Ferrari.

McLaren has been claiming to have found some tenths at every race all through the 2010 season. And mostly, these claims have been proven false. More wishful thinking from them. I think they will remain the No 3 team in F1 in 2011.

Mercedes lost the initiative (back when it was Brawn GP) in the second half of 2009 and they have never managed to find it again. I see no reason for this to change. Simply having a big budget didn't help BAR nor did it help Toyota. I also don't think it will lead to a turnaround in Mercedes GP's fortunes either. Signing Schumi was a huge error IMvHO.

As for Mateschitz, he has wanted to sell Toro Rosso for a long time. But he never did it. The fact that he can still keep 2 racing teams shows he has piles of money to burn. Somehow there are enough people buying Red Bull drinks (can't understand why - I think they're disgusting). And with other teams leaving F1 (BMW, Toyota, Honda etc) in 2009, the FIA and Bernie Ecclestone will not put too much pressure on him to hurry up and sell off Toro Rosso. As for RBR, there is no way Mateschitz will sell it. He uses F1 and the Red Bull Air Races to promote Red Bull drinks among the 20/30-something crowd that buy his drinks.

IMHO the team to watch out for is Renault. I have a sneaky feeling they will improve next year. They are one of the few teams to develop (and perfect) a McLaren-style F-duct system from scratch in 2010. Not many teams were actually successful in doing that. Many tried but most only managed to cobble together something that only did a so-so job. Renault is operating on a small budget but punching well above its weight. And with Kubica there in 2011, I expect we may even see some race wins.

I also think Force India has lost its way. It is in danger of slipping backwards... Dr Vijay Maliya must be disappointed. He built a mega-successful beer and airline empire in India. But his F1 adventure has been a costly failure. It still amazes me that he has not fired Liuzzi. How many chances will Liuzzi get?

--

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I think there is no clear favourite..Surely team orders from RBR to SV and MW will be to make it even harder for FA, which ever one benefits..

Going to be a great last 2 races..

--
 

throt

"I didn't do it"

This year's Mercedes was developed last season by Brawn GP on a meagre budget, as admitted by Ross Brawn recently. This is the reason why it has fallen behind. Mercedes engineers have been putting all their know how behind the 2011 car for some time now and I'm sure they will come up with a strong challenger.

I agree with you 100% on your estimation of Newey and also about your drinks taste. Red Bull tastes awful especially the Sugarfree version.

"Form follows function"

reginos:

Unfortunately for Vettel if he doesn't win the title this year, which is unlikely IMO, most probably he won't have another go next year.

I consider RBR as a team that won't be consistently challenging for the title. Next year I see McLaren coming back and Mercedes giving a strong challenge to Ferrari and all 3 main teams eclipsing Red Bull.

Moreover, Mateschitz  may decide to fold his F1 operation down and sell his teams at some point in the not distant future.

I hope Vettel matures more at RBR and moves to Mercedes in 2012 to replace Schumacher and give them the championship.

+1 exactly im hoping for the same indeed!! 

indeed shifting is ancient technology - so is a fuel burning engine..  I happen to like both :) 

I think Mercedes and Renault will move up to be more competitive, expect wins from them!

McLaren and Ferrari will certainly be good, but RBR is going to lose ground im afraid...

The post season winter development program will be critical and Mercedes have got a HUGE head start. The others are still trying to win the 2010 title. I'd love to see the silver arrows back in competition next season!

indeed shifting is ancient technology - so is a fuel burning engine..  I happen to like both :) 

easy_rider911:

In 2010, the RBR car has been by far the best car throughout the whole season. No matter what Ferrari and McLaren has tried to do, RBR has managed to stay ahead.

It's important to remember that RBR uses a Renault customer engine. It is not the most powerful engine in F1 due to the engine development freeze. Cars with a Mercedes engine have a small advantage. So everything RBR has achieved on the car has been because of the amazing chassis designed by Adrian Newey. The guy is a genius.

[...]

I also think Force India has lost its way. It is in danger of slipping backwards... Dr Vijay Maliya must be disappointed. He built a mega-successful beer and airline empire in India. But his F1 adventure has been a costly failure. It still amazes me that he has not fired Liuzzi. How many chances will Liuzzi get?

It is quite surprising how little attention Newey receives for his tremendous chassis development if one considers, as you said, that the car is equipped with a customer engine from Renault. Unfortunately its speed doesn´t reflect in reliability but to be honest, considering the short timespan this team is in F1, it will be solved in the upcoming seasons.

I personally don´t see Mateschitz closing down his F1 venture as he is one of the very few who has been a successful championship contender within very few years. Same goes for Maliya as I do in no way see his efforts to be unsuccessful. He transformed a constant backmarker into a team with progress and chance of scoring points under the right circumstances. Certainly not as successful as Red Bull but much more convincing than previous entries, both run privately and by manufacturers.

Obviously one needs a competent driver at the wheel, where has been Red Bull before Vettel? Even to my astonishment, it was Fisichella that showed impressive performance in the Force India and I assume that his experience made him deal with the car that Sutil and Liuzzi usually are unable to do to full extend.

Excellent article from Andrew Benson on the title permutations:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/andrewbenson/2010/11/the_2010_world_champion_will.html

And from the F1 site:

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2010/11/11463.html
 

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Webber says that Red Bull is not emotionally behind him and that it is maybe inconvenient for Red Bull that he is in the hunt for the championship

news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9161758.stm

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Live Friday Practice

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/9151075.stm

http://live.autosport.com/commentary.php/id/291

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This is a RedBull track, Alonso won't win easily here. A double win for RedBull will guarantee a breathtaking Abu Dhabi race.

 I doubt Alonso will be able to beat the RedBulls Sunday, and he has Hamilton to contend with as well, so I also think it will liekly be a close call between at least three drivers in Abu Dhabi.

Red Bulls look very strong dominating both sessions of Friday Practice:

news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/results/8499357.stm 

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FIVE-WAY TITLE BATTLE EXPLAINED
1 ALONSO 231pts
2 WEBBER 220pts
3 HAMILTON 210pts
4 VETTEL 206pts
5 BUTTON 189pts

• If Alonso wins in Brazil, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than fourth
• If Alonso is second, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than eighth, Hamilton higher than fourth or Vettel wins
• If Alonso is third, he will be champion unless Webber finishes in the top 10, Hamilton in the top four and Vettel in the top three
• If Alonso does not finish on the podium, it will go to Abu Dhabi
• Button can only stay in contention if he finishes first or second but is out if Alonso finishes in the top six or if Webber is in the top two
• Vettel must beat Alonso on track to stay in contention

Unbelievable Q3 - such a thrilling last 4 minutes to the session  Amazing laps by Hulkenberg 

Looking forward to a great race tomorrow 

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 Brazil is always a lottery due to the changing conditions, and the Q3 showed it once again, and all the drivers seem more worried about not having a DNF in this tricky tarck at this stage than anything else.

Its going to be an interesting first corners, I expect Hamilton to be very aggressive there in a last bonzai attempt at the championship. I think he will bring the most exitement to tomorrow's race.