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FRANKFURT, Dec 2 (Reuters) - German sports car maker Porsche <PSHG_p.DE> is close to building a new four-seater coupe or sports sedan to jump start its profits as its business begins to stall after nine record years, industry experts said on Tuesday.
The world's most profitable car maker, which built its reputation on race-winning sports cars, branched out into a new niche a year ago with a two-tonne sports utility vehicle (SUV), the Cayenne, a strategy which helped maintain growth as demand for its traditional 911 and Boxster cars waned.
But as its sports car sales continue to slide and the initial impact of the Cayenne subsides, the company has said profits could be flat this year, disappointing investors who were hoping for a 10th straight record year.
"There is a good chance that a fourth model announcement could encourage the idea that Porsche is once again a growth story," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note.
We believe Porsche's fourth model plans are already advanced, with the car's development underway, suppliers closely involved and, according to our sources, prototypes now testing on private tracks.
The maker of some of the world's most desirable cars has long been expected to decide on a fourth model, but has left enthusiasts salivating for more detail.
Porsche, which will be grilled on its plans at its annual press conference in Stuttgart on Wednesday, is now expected to make a decision early next year, with the car not expected to hit the market until 2006 or 2007 .
Chief Executive Wendelin Wiedeking has merely hinted that the vehicle could take Porsche into a new niche and attack rivals where they don't expect it, telling a German newspaper recently: "We'll have even fewer friends in the car industry.
GO IT ALONE?
Speculation has been rife about what the model could be -- ranging from a baby SUV to a luxury executive saloon -- but the clear favourite is a four-seat sports coupe or sedan.
The new model is likely to use parts from the Cayenne, developed with Europe's biggest car maker Volkswagen <VOWG.DE>, and could be based either on an entirely new platform or on another base shared with VW, experts say.
"As an engineering base it's a toss up between two options," said Mark Fulthorpe of industry research group CSM Worldwide.
"One could be the current base that they share with VW for the Cayenne. The other is to get a similar agreement with VW to utilise the platform which VW will use for vehicles like the Audi A8 and the Phaeton."
Such a move could also benefit VW, allowing it to get more volume from a luxury car platform which has proved costly.
VW company expects to take a hit of several hundred million euros to write off some of the capitalised research and development costs this year, suggesting hundreds of million euros of investment will never generate a return.
VW has said it is working on a platform for a new mid-sized luxury model which industry experts say could also be used by Italian sportscar maker Maserati, and form an ideal base for Porsche's new car. VW declined to comment.
But other analysts said that Porsche, which made 933 million euros ($1.12 billion) before tax in its last business year to the end of July, has enough cash to develop a new platform on its own and note its high levels of capital expenditure this year.
"We still cannot figure out how Porsche spent 500 million euros in 02/03 unless it is ramping up engine capacity to allow supply for the fourth model, paying for supplier tooling and investing in stamping tooling for a new platform," Goldman said.
Industry experts also question the logic of rivals helping Porsche develop a car which will ultimately attack them on what they might long have thought of as safe territory.
"Porsche has historically relied on the generosity of the German industry, like developing the Cayenne with VW. If they're going to take the industry on in such a lucrative sector why would anyone help them out," one industry watcher said.
Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service