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    Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    This was as a result of Porsche announcing the various model expansions and cost associate with the expansion. Wiedeking was quoted "It's not enough to cook in your own customer base"

    Porsche is not content to be a small sport car company making huge profits. Rather it wants to be a MB.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Nick, Wiedeking says he wants to sell 200,000 cars a year.

    http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=103738

    That sales goal number does not include sales of Panamaras, and he also expects to sell 10,000 Caymans a year. Maybe they dont think he can do it and that Porsche is over reaching itself in sales goals and production quality.

    Buyers in the SUV and sedan markets dont have the same loyalty that sports car buyers have. Any flaws, design defects, problematic ownership issues and more crazy option prices based on Porsches "Monaco Income Matrix" will thwart
    Porsche reaching its sales goals with that group of buyers.

    They already show poor results in getting repeat Cayenne buyers. What happens to Panamara customers if the quality is Cayenne like and owners are told its a "sports car" company so they have to accept flaws and defects?

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Jim, Porsche seems to be swimming against the tide. I do not know how long they can pursue this strategy. Oviously many investors are of the same opinion. The stock lost almost 5% after the announcement.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Am I the only one sensing megalomaniac tendencies in Wiedeking?
    Fortunately he's gone in 2007. I guess he'll be just the right man for WV

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Just Look at the 2006 model line up..

    Cayenne Turbo S
    Cayenne Turbo
    Cayenne S
    Cayenne V6
    997TTS Cab
    997TTS Coupe
    997TT Cab
    997TT Coupe
    997GT3 Coupe
    997S4 Cab
    997S4 Coupe
    997S Cab
    997S Coupe
    997 Cab
    997 Coupe
    C7S Coupe
    987S Roadster
    987 Roadster
    CGT Still in Production but sold as a MY2005 model

    19 models! 14 different engine outputs!

    Add the X51 power kit option on the 4 997S models, the non S Cayman coming out in the spring and you have 24 Porsches to chose from in 2006!

    For MY2007, CGT ends being built but the 997GT2 launcdes, add 3 versions of the new smaller Cayenne, a 997 Targa and a 997s Targa, and a X51 version of the 997S Targa and you get 30 models!

    For MY2008, add the Panamera and its three versions and
    Porsche could have 33 Porsche models to choose from!

    Its wild, 33 models from 6 platforms!

    Eliminate the CGT and you still have 32 models and variants on 5 platforms!

    Porsche is a logistical and sales Disneyland!

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    JimFlat6 said:19 models! 14 different engine outputs!


    There is a Porsche for everybody, young or old, hardcore or wussy. That's great

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    JimFlat6, you forgot the C4 and C4 cab (non-S). You need a score card to keep up!

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    LowPolarMoment said:
    JimFlat6, you forgot the C4 and C4 cab (non-S). You need a score card to keep up!



    So, 21 models and 14 engines for MY2006!!!

    A wild number of models and engines for such a small volume company! They really only need two engines for the entire
    M96 powered 987/997 model range, Fast and Fastest!

    I wonder if they are outsmarting themselves by making so many different model engines and having to buy and stock so many different spare parts, along with the needed research, development, durability testing and emissions certification it takes to produce each and all of these engines??

    It would be interesting to see their financial analysis for engine costs in the M96 powered 987/997 model range.

    How does the Porsche M96 Engine Direktor Sleep at Night?



    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Wiedeking said on wednesday that Porsche might buy more vw shares in a near future, i think that's a good explanation.Porsche still have an option for extra 3.4% in VW.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Porsche will likely exercise those options. I cant imagine Peich saying no to another slice of the German automobile pie.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    JimFlat6 said:
    Quote:
    LowPolarMoment said:
    JimFlat6, you forgot the C4 and C4 cab (non-S). You need a score card to keep up!



    So, 21 models and 14 engines for MY2006!!!





    It all depends how you look at it.
    For me, the firm manages only three engines, a V8, and two flat 6 (one of them derived from the GT1).
    The rest is tweaks on those bases to generate more power (increase capacity, turbos, etc.).
    Same for models: I only see 3, Cayenne based, 911 based and Boxster based, soon, a fourth one.
    Very smart model and engine management.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    Fanch said:
    ...Very smart model and engine management.



    Spot on.

    Sorry guys, don't you have other things to do?

    You guys have to face it, Porsceh is running a different business nowadays. The fact, that Nick bought a Cayenne and not a 911 or Boxster should tell the story - so why on earth should I listen to his ridiculous statements?

    And Jim, as much as I agree with you that some things are missing nowadays in a Porsche, as much do I appreciate the improvements done to the cars today.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    Fanch said:
    Quote:
    JimFlat6 said:
    Quote:
    LowPolarMoment said:
    JimFlat6, you forgot the C4 and C4 cab (non-S). You need a score card to keep up!



    So, 21 models and 14 engines for MY2006!!!





    It all depends how you look at it.
    For me, the firm manages only three engines, a V8, and two flat 6 (one of them derived from the GT1).
    The rest is tweaks on those bases to generate more power (increase capacity, turbos, etc.).
    Same for models: I only see 3, Cayenne based, 911 based and Boxster based, soon, a fourth one.
    Very smart model and engine management.



    Totaly agree! It's all just smart marketing. Right now porsche is just making 2 engines. The "boxter engine" which is in the boxter, the cayman and all current 997 models and the V8 in the cayenne.
    Hopefully the 911 GT1 engine will reappear in the 997 turbo/gt2/gt3.
    The cayenne V6 is a WV Golf engine bought from WV.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Of course this is smart marketing. There is a reason why Porsche is the most profitable car manufacturer in the world (compared to how many cars they sell).
    I think I read today that stock analysts recommend to "keep" the Porsche stocks, not to sell them.

    Porsche will have two problems in the future:
    1. the clever exchange rate "insurance deals" expire around 2007. Porsche can only hope that the US Dollar gets stronger or the Euro gets weaker. Or both.
    Otherwise this could mean a price increase, especially for USD controlled markets.
    2. VW: the VW deal costs Porsche almost all the money they earned in the past, all their saved stuff is gone. And it may cost them even more if Porsche will buy another small bite of VW. Meaning: their current models and all future models have to be a success.
    3. the Panamera enters a tough market. Why tough? Simple. A lot of BMW 7-series, Audi 8-series and Mercedes S-class buyers are buying...DIESEL versions, especially in Germany, the second important market to Porsche after the US.
    Another problem is also the fact that a lot of luxury limousines buyers drive these cars because they're not too flashy, even if the have over 400 HP under the hood or if they cost as much as a 911 or more. This need for "understatement", especially appreciated in Germany, the country where people remove the S600 sticker on their S-class to replace it with a S320 sticker or whatever, may not be served by the Panamera.
    4. The competition is getting stronger and stronger, their products are highly a attractive, usually at much lower prices. People still want quality but they don't want to pay a fortune for it. I'm afraid the "rip them customers off with options" strategy won't work for any time longer, people start to be aware that they're paying too much for extras.

    If Porsche wants to survive, they have to be different than the others. But at the same time, they have to offer better quality than the others. Not easy.

    The next 24 months will tell us if Wiedeking made the right decisions or not. And I truely hope that the VW deal was mostly driven by brains, not the only desire of Mr. Piech to put his hands on VW.

    BTW, Nick: why didn't Ferrari start to sell stocks like they planned a while ago?

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    RC, In 2007 if the dollar/euro rates do not change and if the US real estate market sinks, Porsche could go right back where they were USA saleswise in 1993.

    Porsche didnt have to buy a controlling interest in VW to secure VW as a reliable long term parts vendor. I really think it was motivated by Peich's own sense of personal
    destiny.

    Porsche doesnt rip you off with options. They just provide you with a affordable base platform that you can easily decorate!

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    JimFlat6 said:
    Porsche didnt have to buy a controlling interest in VW to secure VW as a reliable long term parts vendor



    I wouldn't be too sure about it. Look at the Cayenne and even the Boxster/Cayman/911 have VW/Audi parts.
    Porsche had to make sure that the parts supply is not going to dry off in the future, they depend on VW, especially with the Cayenne.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    RC said:
    Quote:
    JimFlat6 said:
    Porsche didnt have to buy a controlling interest in VW to secure VW as a reliable long term parts vendor



    I wouldn't be too sure about it. Look at the Cayenne and even the Boxster/Cayman/911 have VW/Audi parts.
    Porsche had to make sure that the parts supply is not going to dry off in the future, they depend on VW, especially with the Cayenne.



    Were they expecting VW to just end their close relationship or to disappear? Would VW ever really stab Porsche in the back? Likely? Not in this lifetime.

    Sounds more like a excuse to create "Peich German Autowerkes AG" than a genuine "save our supplier" move.

    Will they also need to buy part of BMW so that they can continue to "reliably" purchase the body panels that BMW makes for the 987?

    Who else was willing to pay inflated prices for VW shares?
    GM? Toyota? Even the Arabs backed out from buying a chunk of VW a few years ago.

    There is lots of cross corporate "co-operation" in the German auto industry. Peich just wants to be the king of his own Bavarian Kentucky trailer park. No harm in that
    and at least he really does like cars.


    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    I know I'm keeping my 997s.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    RC, very few companies in today's business evironment are able to successfully transition from a specialist to a generalist company.

    In other words, if you cannot make a profit(or survive) being one of the best sport car companies, what makes a company think they can be profitable in providing a multitude of products which are not what they specialize in?

    I agree competition is fierce. However, trying to widen your customer base by offering products which are new to the specialization is very much like a great soccer player who decides to augment his salary by playing basketball and baseball.

    Soccer skills are not easily transferable to basketball and baseball. As a soccer player he was special. As a basketball and baseball player he is at best ordinary. Remember Michael Jordan?

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Nick, I never expected Michael Jordans failed attempt to play major league baseball to be used as a parable about Porsches marketing, and especially here.

    With the foor door Panamera as the fourth model, that means that a 3 series style 2 door shorter wheelbase variant could appear also. And with Porsche's stated future goal of selling 250,000 cars a year, a alternative to a BMW 3'er would help them achieve it.

    I guess after that will come their diesel hybrid C class
    like model for the Taxi industry.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    I was thinking the other day about how Porsche could make a lower priced car to increase sales volume. Problem is that if the car was around 28k, Porsche would prob give it less than 200bhp and it would get killed by WRX's, Mustangs, Z's, etc.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Weideking has not been one of my favorite people as his focus is on profits not making the best sports car available. There is an old saying " Do what you do best" I think that Porsche should heed this advice from many of us. I have 3 neighbors who own Cayenne, 2 of them owned 911 before this and all have had many problems especially electrical and stalling problems. All of them now hate Porsche because of their attitude about their problems, this is not the attitude handed down by the dealer, it comes straight from Porsche Cars North America. It will not take long for Porsche to alienate their following if they come out with cars that are not 100% reliable.
    I am starting to think that Audi R8 is looking better all the time and save money with an A8 instead fo Panamerica. I do not like Porsches arrogance and want to do business with a company that appreciates my business.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    I know many people that work for Porsche, they are good people. The policy of not helping Cayenne customers comes from the top. That is why I am not pleased with Weideking. I know that a lot of his employees don't care for him also. I am just saying what they can not.

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    911fan said:
    I was thinking the other day about how Porsche could make a lower priced car to increase sales volume. Problem is that if the car was around 28k, Porsche would prob give it less than 200bhp and it would get killed by WRX's, Mustangs, Z's, etc.



    If Porsche could accomplish this they would increase sales volumes massively! I'm sure they have the engineering expertise to give it at least a 1/4 mile time of 13.5 or under, without too much cost. Turbo charging I'm sure is the cheaper route to "value performance".

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    JimFlat6 said:
    Were they expecting VW to just end their close relationship or to disappear? Would VW ever really stab Porsche in the back? Likely? Not in this lifetime.




    Maybe not VW. But this company is currently in a financial status which makes it an attractive candidate for a take over. At the moment, there's a law in German which prevents that. But this law is expected to be annulated by the European Union sooner than later. Once this protection is gone and a foreign large automaker is taking control over VW, this relationship and therefore Porsche's source of supplies could get in trouble rather quickly (I believe about a 1/3 of their supplies comes from VW).

    Re: Apparently European investors are dumping Porsche stock

    Quote:
    Matt C said:
    Once this protection is gone and a foreign large automaker is taking control over VW, this relationship and therefore Porsche's source of supplies could get in trouble rather quickly (I believe about a 1/3 of their supplies comes from VW).



    Even when the "VW-law" will be void in the future (and there is no doubt about this) a hostile takeover is a rather remote possibility in the near future IMO AS LONG as the state of Lower Saxony will keep it's shares (remember the state's shares + Porsche's shares = controlling majority), although you never know what's going to happen in the long-term (the state may sell his shares due to public budget problems).

    As for the supply relationship: I never thought that it's a good idea to purchase the entire cow if you just need a cup of milk. There are better options of securing supply relationships rather than taking some (non controlling, minority) shares of the supplier (e.g. multi-sourcing rather than single-sourcing, long-term supply agreements etc.).

    Also if Porsche really aims at an annual production of 250,000 cars they might re-think some make or buy decisions, so that their shareholding in VW would make even less sense (of course I am not an expert and have no clue what's the critical mass for auto-parts in terms of economies of scale in the production department )

    @ Dan: good point about the reliability issues with the Cayenne and Porsche's attitude how to deal with it. Your point may be the exactly right answer to my question why the german dealers' satisfaction with new cars has gone south considerably from 2002 to 2003 (invention of cayenne) - see other thread in Porsche (general) forum about quality surveys.

    @ Jim: For the reasons explained above I absolutely agree with you that the background of the VW-deal is just "family business" (Piechs dreams about becoming THE patron of Porsche + VW) rather than strategic thinking. I always thought that Piech is a great car guy / engineer but a bad strategist (during his era as VW's CEO he has wasted an incredible amount of money and resources for his private prestigious hobbies such as Phaeton, Bentley, Lambo, Bugatti rather than improving competitiveness in the bread & butter business).

    Even worse, the VW-deal has created the impression (especially amongst foreign investors) that the bad old "Deutschland AG" is coming back ("family business" + partly state-owned companies is the worst combination I can think of).

     
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