Quote:
EricAlain said:
Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".
Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.
For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.
The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.
So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.
Quote:
nberry said:
Brunner I predicted the following:
1. The 997 sales will not come close to the 996 sales.
2. Porsche recognizing the marketing error in over producing cars would initially restrict the supplies of the 997's.
3. Once they fooled their customer base in to thinking that their marketing stategy had changed (keeping inventory low) they will revert back to over producing.
Please reread the paragraph that Porsche published prior to announcing their sales for August. Clearly they initially restricted supplies and now they are shipping boatloads of cars thereby filling dealer lots. I could not have been more on the money.
Additionally, consider this; the 997 reviews particularly the S have been spectacular. However, the sales have not been. The are tepid at best and those that have wanted one have either ordered one or taken delivery. Therefore, those 997's filling the dealer lots will be discounted probably heavily.
Porsche is the GM, Ford and Chrysler of sport cars.
Quote:
EricAlain said:
Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".
Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.
For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.
The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.
So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.
Quote:
fritz said:Quote:
EricAlain said:
Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".
Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.
For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.
The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.
So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.
EricAlain,
I enjoy reading your posts, because - presumably due to your profession - you have access to relevant facts and figures relating to the auto market and the ability and inclination to analyse them objectively.
Unlike Nick, who rarely quotes facts and figures, and when he does puts his own peculiar spin on them to try to twist them to fit his obsessive agenda.
Quote:
nberry said:Quote:
fritz said:Quote:
EricAlain said:
Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".
Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.
For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.
The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.
So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.
EricAlain,
I enjoy reading your posts, because - presumably due to your profession - you have access to relevant facts and figures relating to the auto market and the ability and inclination to analyse them objectively.
Unlike Nick, who rarely quotes facts and figures, and when he does puts his own peculiar spin on them to try to twist them to fit his obsessive agenda.
Me obbessive? I am going to hold my breath until you take it back!
EricAlain I assuming is using norms for car manufacturers like Ford GM and Chyrsler. It only proves my point. The is a huge disconnect between what is happening in the US and Europe when it involves Porsche sales.
Raz, what I predicted you can take to the bank! Porsche will introduce the TT sooner because of falling sales regarding the 997, 987 and Cayenne lines. I really feel for those that own a S or ordered an S with the power kit. In a very short time, the TT will trump them and the value of these other models will get hammered.
Hey but look on the bright side, Porsche will continue to make a lot of money.
Quote:
nberry said:
Raz, what I predicted you can take to the bank! Porsche will introduce the TT sooner because of falling sales regarding the 997, 987 and Cayenne lines. I really feel for those that own a S or ordered an S with the power kit. In a very short time, the TT will trump them and the value of these other models will get hammered.
Hey but look on the bright side, Porsche will continue to make a lot of money.
Quote:
Raz (NC) said:Quote:
nberry said:
Raz, what I predicted you can take to the bank! Porsche will introduce the TT sooner because of falling sales regarding the 997, 987 and Cayenne lines. I really feel for those that own a S or ordered an S with the power kit. In a very short time, the TT will trump them and the value of these other models will get hammered.
Hey but look on the bright side, Porsche will continue to make a lot of money.
Can you define sooner though? All information I've heard points to a 2006 launch of the 997TT, although it may be shown off earlier. Launching the 997TT sooner would mean that it'd be out this year, is this what you're predicting?
Porsche will make a lot of money, but that's because they can. If you can show me a good alternative in this price class that offers everything Porsche does, I'm sure I can drum up about 20,000 customers a year for this competing product. The closest anyone has gotten, in my opinion, is Audi/Lamborghini with the Gallardo. And even then, the price differential was still huge.
Quote:
nberry said:
In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.
Quote:
W8MM said:
Nick,
Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?
It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?
Quote:
fritz said:Quote:
W8MM said:
Nick,
Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?
It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?
Sounds reasonable enough to me.
Anybody have directly comparable leasing rates for, say a P996TT and F430?
Quote:
W8MM said:Quote:
nberry said:
In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.
Nick,
Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?
It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?
Quote:
nberry said:
Raz, well it will be hard to prove either way if it is early since they have not announced when it would be introduced. My comment is it will be early rather than later. They may start taking orders this fall for early 2006 delivery.
Regarding other cars in that price range, look at the C6, Z06, AMV8, MB, Viper and so on. In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.
Quote:
nberry said:Quote:
W8MM said:Quote:
nberry said:
In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.
Nick,
Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?
It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?
Yes but often not accurately. It all depends on the leasing company and interest rates. For an example, Porsche leasing is giving a residual of I believe 40% on the CGT after 5 years. Other leasing companies may go higher some lower. My opinion is it probably will be worth more than 50% after five years.
Also, many leases on the 360 Spider after 5 years were close to 50-60% residual but still being sold close to MSRP after that time period.
Quote:
VKSF said:
What prob answers question better is...what is a 2 yo 360 w/24K mis worth vs 2 yo 996TT w/24K mi as % of MSRP...and also importantly in absolute terms (after all, 360 was roughly $60K more expensive than 996TT)...I suspect F's resale value edge vs P disappears quickly once mileage approaches/hits these daily commuter lvls....but no one appears to have any hard datapoints to support/refute this speculation....
Quote:
nberry said:
The 360 coupe initally sold for $140,000 and only recently raised to $160,00. The 996TT bare bones was $120,000. When the started to over produced them many could be had for under $90,000 within a year of production.
The 997TT will probably begin around $130,000 if not higher.
Raz, you place a great deal of emphasis on "feel" which I agree with. But that only supports the purchase of competitor cars spending on the buyers particular "feel" need. Some love gobs of torque others want nimbleness and others want something else.
Quote:
Raz (NC) said:Quote:
nberry said:
The 360 coupe initally sold for $140,000 and only recently raised to $160,00. The 996TT bare bones was $120,000. When the started to over produced them many could be had for under $90,000 within a year of production.
The 997TT will probably begin around $130,000 if not higher.
Raz, you place a great deal of emphasis on "feel" which I agree with. But that only supports the purchase of competitor cars spending on the buyers particular "feel" need. Some love gobs of torque others want nimbleness and others want something else.
Well what I'm arguing is that the feel of the 911 and Boxster cannot, currently, be beat by anything in or around its price class. And when I refer to feel, I am not talking about easily quantifiable items like torque, it is something a bit harder to describe. It is, for example, the difference between a Boxster and a 350Z. One has a lot more power, while the other has a far superior feel to it.
Once again, I do agree that Porsche's mass production mentality has made it very dangerous to own a brand new Porsche. But, it also means that I can get any car, at any time, at virtually any price I want (discount off of new, or much less for used). And given that I am a fan of the feel of modern day Porsches, I am ok with this scenario.
Obviously, as you know, I am a fan of Ferrari as well. I played the dealer games with the 360 and now I await my F430, at MSRP, late next year. While I do appreciate that the F430 will hold its value better than any Porsche, by no means do I want Porsche to start acting like Ferrari. In fact, I would be far happier if Ferrari started acting like Porsche in this sense. If I could get any Ferrari, at any time, at realistic prices, I would be far happier. Sure, resale values wouldn't be as good, but I know I don't buy these things for resale value, I buy them to drive. And in my opinion, I'm all for anything that lets more people drive these things and truly enjoy them.
Quote:
Raz (NC) said:
Obviously, as you know, I am a fan of Ferrari as well. I played the dealer games with the 360 and now I await my F430, at MSRP, late next year. While I do appreciate that the F430 will hold its value better than any Porsche, by no means do I want Porsche to start acting like Ferrari. In fact, I would be far happier if Ferrari started acting like Porsche in this sense. If I could get any Ferrari, at any time, at realistic prices, I would be far happier. Sure, resale values wouldn't be as good, but I know I don't buy these things for resale value, I buy them to drive. And in my opinion, I'm all for anything that lets more people drive these things and truly enjoy them.