Richard Parry-Jones: cost parity between EVs and ICE cars will be “about 2026” | Autocar

“I think the best way for the industry to secure the value of the vehicles going forward is to make damn sure that the real-world emissions of the engines we’re selling are very good and meet the goals of city leaders," he said.

“We’ll probably see a difference in demand for ICE vehicles in cities versus outside cities. I can imagine people in cities with maybe higher taxation, congestion charges, pollution charges; these will disincentivise second-hand buyers from buying those cars in cities. But in rural areas, where air quality demands are much lower, the demand will be quite high, so I could see regional separation for the demand pattern going forward.” 

Parry-Jones also insists that the problem of ’embedded CO2’ in the production of EVs - usually greater than an equivalent ICE car - is “not really something you can technically influence”.

“It’s bound to the chemistry of the cells we're using; they're hungry for energy in terms of manufacturing. Most of it is in the cell production phase, not in the raw materials. So getting lithium and other materials isn't a major contributor. 

“The only way we’re going to offeset that is to shift over the generation base for making electricity away from coal, away from oil and gas and towards renewables and nuclear.”

OEMs will be paying very close attention to the electricity generation mix of the country from which cells are sourced in future, said Parry-Jones, citing Poland as an example of a country that has a coal-heavy mix, compared with France, which is heavily reliant on hydroelectric and nuclear power generation. 

“I reckon it will be about 2030 before those generating plant change-overs have had enough effect to reduce the embedded carbon to the comparable level of an ICE engine," he said. "That doesn’t mean that buying an EV is bad, it just means the payback period in terms of CO2 is longer than it will be in the future.”