If it turns out to be correct that Tesla growth is running out of steam ( e.g. Elon Musk has indicated that 2019 Q1 will be below 2018 Q4 and they will need some luck to make a "tiny" profit Smiley ) then here is a "back-of-the-envelope" valuation based on FY2018 results applied to the valuation multiple of a benchmark growth company that has also been running out of steam...

  • LTM EBITDA ~ $1.6bn
  • EV / EBITDA multiple ~ 9.60x (based on prevailing AAPL multiple)
  • Implied Enterprise Value ~ $15.36bn
  • Existing Net Debt ~ $8.28bn
  • Implied Equity Value ~ $7.08bn
  • Outstanding Shares ~ 171,733,000
  • Implied Share Price ~ $41.23 per share

...so a downside risk of 87% below the current $312 share price! heart