In a way, the demand for Model 3 has already peaked. But peaked is too strong a word. That segment will keep growing, they will still keep on selling cars, and quite possibly in increasing numbers as they filter in the low spec entry model to the production mix and keep the line full.

Majority of the "demand", those 400k+ deposits was for the base model which Elon refuse to build. 

Granted, there are other orders which asked for high spec ones that they had been building and selling. But that one sort of peaked a little while ago, as most Tesla stores now have ready to be deliver cars sitting on their lot for walk ins.

Now they are focusing on mid spec cars, ones with less profit per car but still better than the base models, and these orders will keep the line busy for a while, once these models' pent up demand are mostly satisfied, the economic of scale will kick I nanny make the base model profitable and they will start building those too, and those are the one that should drive the sales number higher, Provided that by that time the deposit holders are still waiting and has not moved onto the competition.

I am fairly certain that Elon won't let the Q4 number be less than Q3, he NEEDED that rosy Q4 quarter to prove to the doubters that he can make Tesla profitable, not just once in a blue moon single quarter. Every trick in the book and off the book will be employed to do that.

he is buying time, the company expanded too quickly and liquidity is stretched uncomfortably thin currently for the moment. He just need to get through the next 6 months or so, the biggest threat to Tesla is the up coming convertible bonds, that if not converted will eat a big chunk of Tesla's working capital which they need right now. Once that's passed, Tesla will be fine, the rest of their debts are not too dangerous to the company, and they should have enough sustained sales to drive the company forward. Well until Elon decide to gamble the company on another product. 

The Model 3 was a giant gamble, but it would seems he is cunning enough to buy enough time for this bet to be paid off. 

 


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