Whoopsy:
alexalex88:

Whoopsy you've been predicting Tesla's bankrupcy for two years saying that they will be over at the end of every single quarter and hey, they're still in the game. I'm not doubting about your analysis, don't get me wrong, but you might been missreading some of the indicators or just not understanding the way the markets behave with this kind of companies nowadays (not saying that I do).

@SciFrog is completly right. Tesla has in the market a product that is already better than the hypothetical product that competitors are gonna put in the market IN THE UPCOMING years. That's a fact.

 

 

Don't think I ever said they will go bankruptSmiley I simply state that their model is not sustainable and might get bankrupt.

There is nothing surprising about how market behaves, they had always blinded by Elon. But as I said, this is the first ever successful quarter for Tesla in what, 15 years? AND it was achieved with some questionable tactics, i.e. not building cars according to the deposit list but bypass all of those waiting and build fully spec-ed cars in order to build the bottom line. You go walk into a Tesla store right now, you can walk out with a fully spec-ed Model 3 in 5 mins.

Tesla has been pumping these expensive fully optioned model for a whole quarter and change, just so they can book a profit for this past quarter. Had they built according to the deposit list, they would have lost money again this quarter.

There is no doubt Tesla has the electric market to themselves right now, at least the one above the econobox one. But that market is getting competition soon. Porsche is coming in with the first salvo, others are following. So in a year or so Tesla really need to up their game, their questionable interior and fit and finish won't match up well with the competition, and their outdated technology will be at a distinct disadvantage. To improve both they need cash, lots of them, that's in addition to Elon's vision of spending money and build a factory in China, doing the Speedster, AND the truck. That's a boat load of car that they don't have,

Right now they are raking in all the money in the pot for electric cars, and that's not enough for them to generate a sustainable profit, what happens when more people are eating in the same pot? The electric car market will be growing, but not that fast so someone will lose. Tesla had the monopoly, so they stand to lose the most. What if Porsche only take 10% of the market? That basically means Tesla just lost 10% of the market. 

The only scenario that tTesla can come out rosy will be for Porsche and everyone else to flop on the new 800V system, which is impossible, as 800V means shorter charge time and thinner wires in the car, so lighter cars. And that the market reject the better build quality and material in the Taycan, and prefer the cheap finishing inside the Tesla. There is no competition right now to compare cars, but there will be soon.

 

 

And I think I have a pretty good idea how to read annual reports and quarter filings, been doing that forever and successful enough to get me to where I am today. Smiley 

I agree with everything you wrote, there is little discussion about it and I didn't intend to question your finance ability, you seem like a brilliant guy to me and it's pretty obvious that you're doing great in life haha

All I said, despite your detailed analysis, is that you might not understand the particular dynamics of companies like this where there are "intangible goods" that are not reflected in annual reports and quarter filings. Data. Innovation. Know-how.

One last thing regarding the phrase I highlighted is that you are not counting the market growth. Today the electric market is this big "." while in 5 or 10 years is gonna be this huge "O". We are talking of hundred millions of persons that are going to transition into the EV space.