You make some good and interesting points particularly regarding increasing production which translates to more profit for Ferrari. However, as a buyer of Ferrari's for many years the scenario you set out would be very troubling to me.

A Spider with a retractable hard top will be heavy and totally compromise the mid engine configuration and performance. The styling of the car will also have to be compromised. Elimination of the glass engine bay. The retractable top will not be a big seller especially if it is going to be price close to the 599 and have less performance.

A targa approach might work with the CGT as an example. Remove and store the top either in the boot or elsewhere. Having been in the CGT many times I can tell you the removing and storing the top is a pain. If I am not mistaken initially the CGT was topless but later given a top. Admittedly, that would not prevent me from buying the car.

More importantly, to dilute the brand (by introducing a cheaper Ferrari) while at its zenith would be irresponsible and in my opinion financial insanity. Short term profit while sacrificing long term stability.

Ferrari is not Porsche and will never be. Porsche has a much wider customer base at a much lower price point. As I wrote earlier the lower middle class and the high middle class can afford Porsche's. Neither one can afford a Ferrari.

Your prediction may be accurate. However, I sincerely hope it is not.