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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    That is a very healthy process as it is impossible to grow a company fast without making mistakes in efficiency as my first hand experience has shown. Dealing with the changes afterwords are unpleasant but necessary.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Market seems to disagree. Tesla lost another ~8% market value from the cost cutting measures news.

    Face it, Tesla is not a healthy company, a healthy company doesn't need to do cost cutting measures 3 times within like a year and still loses boat loads of money. And this latest round? Head of the company personally review all expenses? This is called desperate measures.

    They have enough cash to last only the next 10 months, they are under the gun now to actually prove they can make a profit regularly, not make a profit while taking advantage of a one time pent up demand.

    The company is NOT being run responsibly, period. 

    At $37b or so market cap, it is still over valued by perhaps 100%. Once that drops to perhaps $18b-20b, Elon would have an out with a buyout price of ~$24b. 

    Tesla doesn't make the greatest of products, but they are decent enough that they should be profitable. There is really no excuse for them to keep losing money quarter after quarter for years.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    Market seems to disagree. Tesla lost another ~8% market value from the cost cutting measures news.

    Face it, Tesla is not a healthy company, a healthy company doesn't need to do cost cutting measures 3 times within like a year and still loses boat loads of money. And this latest round? Head of the company personally review all expenses? This is called desperate measures.

    They have enough cash to last only the next 10 months, they are under the gun now to actually prove they can make a profit regularly, not make a profit while taking advantage of a one time pent up demand.

    The company is NOT being run responsibly, period. 

    At $37b or so market cap, it is still over valued by perhaps 100%. Once that drops to perhaps $18b-20b, Elon would have an out with a buyout price of ~$24b. 

    Tesla doesn't make the greatest of products, but they are decent enough that they should be profitable. There is really no excuse for them to keep losing money quarter after quarter for years.

    Risk Factor disclosure in the Tesla convertible prospectus may be relevant...  1553032464632image.gif

    1558125964916image.jpeg

    ...potential forced liquidation of shares pledged by Elon Musk as the stock price declines? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The risk factor, relating to Musk's pledged shares, and forced liquidation if the share price falls below a certain value has all the marking of a death spiral security in every thing but name.  If a liquidation is triggered, one doubts it would result in an orderly sale as programmatic trading would kick off additional portfolio liquidations.  That could be a wild ride for many of the Tesla investors.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Boxster Coupe GTS:
    Whoopsy:

    Market seems to disagree. Tesla lost another ~8% market value from the cost cutting measures news.

    Face it, Tesla is not a healthy company, a healthy company doesn't need to do cost cutting measures 3 times within like a year and still loses boat loads of money. And this latest round? Head of the company personally review all expenses? This is called desperate measures.

    They have enough cash to last only the next 10 months, they are under the gun now to actually prove they can make a profit regularly, not make a profit while taking advantage of a one time pent up demand.

    The company is NOT being run responsibly, period. 

    At $37b or so market cap, it is still over valued by perhaps 100%. Once that drops to perhaps $18b-20b, Elon would have an out with a buyout price of ~$24b. 

    Tesla doesn't make the greatest of products, but they are decent enough that they should be profitable. There is really no excuse for them to keep losing money quarter after quarter for years.

    Risk Factor disclosure in the Tesla convertible prospectus may be relevant...  1553032464632image.gif

    1558125964916image.jpeg

    ...potential forced liquidation of shares pledged by Elon Musk as the stock price declines? Smiley

     

    For some, the devil is in the details, hidden after pages after pages of 'stuff'.

    For others, they only cared about the news headlines, which won't have those details.

    It's really not a secret that Elon has pledged his shares for bank loans, personally he doesn't have a lot of liquidity despite being a billionaire, it's all on paper. But then again he doesn't need a lot of cash himself either as he don't really do lavish spendings. 

    But because of the triggers built into the loans, he has an obligation to prop up the stock prices, both for personal reasons and corporate reasons, in some circle, that's called stock price manipulation. 

    Depending on individual negotiations the value of stocks pledges varies, but I believe most arrangements value stocks at 50% of trading price at time of execution, and the trigger hovers around that price or slightly higher.

     

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    90% of founder CEOs borrow against their stock. 

    As ceo of the company he has the obligation to create as much shareholder value as possible. That is not "propping up" stock prices or manipulation. 


    --

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    Boxster Coupe GTS:
    Whoopsy:

    Market seems to disagree. Tesla lost another ~8% market value from the cost cutting measures news.

    Face it, Tesla is not a healthy company, a healthy company doesn't need to do cost cutting measures 3 times within like a year and still loses boat loads of money. And this latest round? Head of the company personally review all expenses? This is called desperate measures.

    They have enough cash to last only the next 10 months, they are under the gun now to actually prove they can make a profit regularly, not make a profit while taking advantage of a one time pent up demand.

    The company is NOT being run responsibly, period. 

    At $37b or so market cap, it is still over valued by perhaps 100%. Once that drops to perhaps $18b-20b, Elon would have an out with a buyout price of ~$24b. 

    Tesla doesn't make the greatest of products, but they are decent enough that they should be profitable. There is really no excuse for them to keep losing money quarter after quarter for years.

    Risk Factor disclosure in the Tesla convertible prospectus may be relevant...  1553032464632image.gif

    1558125964916image.jpeg

    ...potential forced liquidation of shares pledged by Elon Musk as the stock price declines? Smiley

     

    For some, the devil is in the details, hidden after pages after pages of 'stuff'.

    For others, they only cared about the news headlines, which won't have those details.

    It's really not a secret that Elon has pledged his shares for bank loans, personally he doesn't have a lot of liquidity despite being a billionaire, it's all on paper. But then again he doesn't need a lot of cash himself either as he don't really do lavish spendings. 

    But because of the triggers built into the loans, he has an obligation to prop up the stock prices, both for personal reasons and corporate reasons, in some circle, that's called stock price manipulation. 

    Depending on individual negotiations the value of stocks pledges varies, but I believe most arrangements value stocks at 50% of trading price at time of execution, and the trigger hovers around that price or slightly higher.

     

     

    Is there one single thing above there that is not widely known? Nope. This is standard stuff for this type of young company where the founder still runs the show. On top of it, just read this disclosure from any company and see how negative they are. Since CEO have to sign and be liable for the earnings reports, every company has been very forthcoming with the potential issues.

    The devil is not in the details. It is in how many cars they can sell, and how much it costs to run the company. The sales dropped, he cuts costs (again). Stock price could fall another 50% before they really get in trouble, and at that level, someone will buy them out  for sure (and maybe take them private). And Musk will still be a billionaire and will still run the show.

    Thinking that Tesla will go away is just wishful thinking. Just the power of the brand and the tech is enough for it to survive even if some people get wiped in the process.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    5 Things I Learned From a Quick Spin in the Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor

    https://apple.news/A8H9uvuA2RYCDTXiN34DvpQ

    “It's addictive to drive

    Whether you take it on a canyon road or simply down the street, the Tesla Model 3 is addictive to drive. The quick response, great handling, and low body roll make it a thrilling experience wherever you go.”

    That’s what has the Germans shaking in their boots. As long as reputable mass market magazines like “Automobile” write things like this, the old guard get beaten at their own game and the Tesla aura just keeps growing.

    I just cannot wait for a handling comparaison between a 992 TTS convertible and the Tesla Roadster or a NBR lap time since they cost the same. My guess? the first version of the roadster will be 20s slower and yet reviewers will say the Tesla is more fun to drive due to the insane torque, the low center of gravity and no body roll. Then the car will get better every 18 months as the 911 stays stale for 3-4 years at a time.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I begs to differs.

    Tesla Model S is basically the same car since 2012, software updates here and there doesn't changes the car, it's still the same car with the same body and same bland interior. That billboard topping 17" screen? Same one since 2012. Suspension geometry? Same as the 2012 car. 

    Say compared to a 911, the 991 came out in 2011, the .2 came out in 2016, and the 992 just arrived. That's 3 different ones already basically in the same time span. 

    Tesla is basically the only game in town for upmarket EV, there is nothing else to compared to, being the only entrant in the class automatically make it the best already. Wait a few months and see how it stacks up against the incoming EV competition.

    BTW, I wasn't the one that say Tesla will go away, I am the one that says they will survive, but they badly needed someone else better at the helm. It is being mismanaged badly right now. 

     


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    I begs to differs.

    Tesla Model S is basically the same car since 2012, software updates here and there doesn't changes the car, it's still the same car with the same body and same bland interior. That billboard topping 17" screen? Same one since 2012. Suspension geometry? Same as the 2012 car. . 

    1558163552641image.jpeg

    ...Model S and Model X not selling well in Europe so far this year... Smiley

    1558163566622image.jpeg


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    I begs to differs.

    Tesla Model S is basically the same car since 2012, software updates here and there doesn't changes the car, it's still the same car with the same body and same bland interior. That billboard topping 17" screen? Same one since 2012. Suspension geometry? Same as the 2012 car. 

    Say compared to a 911, the 991 came out in 2011, the .2 came out in 2016, and the 992 just arrived. That's 3 different ones already basically in the same time span. 

    Tesla is basically the only game in town for upmarket EV, there is nothing else to compared to, being the only entrant in the class automatically make it the best already. Wait a few months and see how it stacks up against the incoming EV competition.

    BTW, I wasn't the one that say Tesla will go away, I am the one that says they will survive, but they badly needed someone else better at the helm. It is being mismanaged badly right now. 

     

    Succinctly put once again.  Tesla is incredibly mismanaged; however, as long as the Musk cult exists, he remains an existential threat to the company.  Even if the product is competent, the company has failed to profitable replicate that product.  No company will survive without eventually organically producing positive cash flow.  

    Once enough investors realize the current management team isn't capable of developing a sustainable business model, the downturn will be swift and ruthless.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Where are the model 3 numbers in that chart?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Where are the model 3 numbers in that chart?

    A agree , very strange as this is what I read in europe :

    Le Model 3 de Tesla numéro un en Suisse en mars, toutes catégories

    Pour la première fois, une voiture électrique a été la plus immatriculée sur un mois, devançant des modèles à essence de Skoda et VW

     

    and this :

    https://www.auto-moto.com/actualite/marche-auto-europe-tesla-model-3-bat-record-electriques-209691.html


    --

     964 Carrera 4 --  997.2 C2S , -20mm -- 991.2 GT3 RS 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Where are the model 3 numbers in that chart?

    Here is the monthly registration data for Tesla Model 3 in Netherlands + Norway + Spain...

    1558196203876image.jpeg

    Source:  https://eu-evs.com

    ...maybe Model 3 sales have been replacing Model S and X sales which are significantly down year-on-year? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Regarding musk, just one recent example...

    Musk recently:. “A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software, everything,” he said at a recent “Autonomy Day” event for investors.

    This on the news: "Tesla didn’t fix an Autopilot problem for three years, and now another person is dead"

    www.theverge.com/2019/5/17/18629214/tesla-autopilot-crash-death-josh-brown-jeremy-banner

    This guy needs to be pushed aside and Tesla run by someone with credibility, know-how, and mental stability. From the pedophile incident to smoking pot on rogan's podcast, to all the lies he says in Twitter, he is Tesla's worst enemy right now. Imagine what Tesla could become under some top tier management... 


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The model 3 is definitely taking away some sales from S and X, it is too good and not everyone needs a car as big as an S which is S class size, even more so in Europe. The model Y will have 7 sets too, they need to get that car on the road asap, this is hoping to be the huge seller for them. No one wants sedans anymore and the X is big and expensive. They can update the battery of the S/X which would help, and maybe the interior too (personally I don’t think it needs an update, I like it the way it is and holds up nice in comparaison with my loaded Macan and the gorgeous RRS Autobiography because the philosophy is different enough, minimalist vs ostentatious).

    The autonomy in one year claim seems completely bogus. The autopilot is good and usable, but full autonomy? Unless they know something no one else does, that new chip is not enough to get there, it is all software. That said, Musk is right trying to push autopilot, it is a huge selling point for them and honestly I found it a revelation for my daily commute, it reduces the stress by a lot.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    One of the best articles I have reviewed on Tesla.   Surprisingly good for a Seeking Alpha article.  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264912-tesla-pivots-oblivion


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The writer is long TSLA shares FYI. It is very thorough with a few simplifications (the model Y is only a stretched 3 on the Z axis, but we know it will have 7 seats for example). Also no word on the pick up, semi, roadster and other vehicles in the future. Tesla still needs to address many markets (convertible anyone).

    But the bottom line is they are simply saying that demand is key and Q1 drop was bad and unless it rebounds, Tesla is in trouble. Fair enough.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    The writer is long TSLA shares FYI. It is very thorough with a few simplifications (the model Y is only a stretched 3 on the Z axis, but we know it will have 7 seats for example). Also no word on the pick up, semi, roadster and other vehicles in the future. Tesla still needs to address many markets (convertible anyone).

    But the bottom line is they are simply saying that demand is key and Q1 drop was bad and unless it rebounds, Tesla is in trouble. Fair enough.

    How can Tesla expand its product portfolio when it lacks the capital, and cash flow, needed to support its current operations?   Under Musk, the company has played a dangerous and unproductive game.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    1558297926678image.jpeg

    1558298249619image.jpeg

    ...worth it? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    What are the options priced at? That is his only comp. If they're not in the money... 


    --

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    SciFrog:

    The writer is long TSLA shares FYI. It is very thorough with a few simplifications (the model Y is only a stretched 3 on the Z axis, but we know it will have 7 seats for example). Also no word on the pick up, semi, roadster and other vehicles in the future. Tesla still needs to address many markets (convertible anyone).

    But the bottom line is they are simply saying that demand is key and Q1 drop was bad and unless it rebounds, Tesla is in trouble. Fair enough.

    How can Tesla expand its product portfolio when it lacks the capital, and cash flow, needed to support its current operations?   Under Musk, the company has played a dangerous and unproductive game.  

    Again, why do you think Tesla has no access to capital? So far it has been the exact opposite. Building cars is hugely capital intensive (so much that most said Tesla could not do it a decade ago). All current Tesla shareholder knows that. When they started to invest, they knew there was a great chance much more capital would be needed.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    https://mondaynote.com/tesla-insane-or-clever-b7a8e1479f6b

    Elon Musk makes it easy to dismiss his grandiose — unhinged, even — descriptions of his product plans. But if we look past the hyperbole, we see a serious threat for legacy automakers who don’t know and love software.

    “I feel very confident predicting 1 million autonomous robo-taxis for Tesla next year,”

    When Elon Musk utters these words at Tesla’s Autonomy Day late April, a song plays inside my head: They’re Coming to Take Me Away, Ha-Haaa!. I imagine two burly men in white coats coming on stage, wrapping Elon in a tight jacket, and whisking him to a padded cell. (I last heard the song in the late sixties while I was still in France. The refrain obviously made a lasting impression.)

    One view is that Musk is deranged. Seriously. Not a little bit like someone with a passion for labels that adorn Camembert boxes (a tyriosémiophile). No, more like someone who keeps announcing the closure of Tesla retail stores, only to partially countermand his order within days; like someone who gets in serious trouble with the SEC for falsely claiming “funding secured” to take Tesla private at $420/share, and then getting sued and fined to the tune of $40M; or like someone who claims the mythical $35K Model 3 has finally become available, removes it from the Tesla site a little later, waits a few beats and then claims it actually is available but you have to order by phone or in person, followed by a price increase a couple of weeks later.

    Over the years, these zigzags, the lofty promises and changing stories have become a Musk trademark. In the past, I’ve wondered when and how Tesla’s autocratic founder would “exaggerate too much” and cause shareowners to give the CEO, who owns about 20% of the company, more time with his family and SpaceX.

    For a brief moment, I wonder if the surreal “1 million robo-taxis by 2020” is going to be the turning point. But, no. Instead of calling for a psychiatric intervention, most observers just shrug off Musk’s grandiose talk as clever publicity. We’ve seen his lofty pronouncements before, perhaps not this grand, he’s outdoing himself this time, but we’ve been immunized.

    AI expert Kai-Fu Lee of Apple, Silicon Graphics, Microsoft, and Google fame used the best antidote for such folly, Twitter humor:

    “If there are a million Tesla robo-taxis functioning on the road in 2020, I will eat them.”

    In Musk’s “different” mind, an overnight Over The Air software update transforms a million Tesla cars out in the field into Full Self Drive (FSD) vehicles by the end of next year. But wait, there’s more: FSD will upend the math of automotive depreciation, usually the largest financial drain when owning a car. Electrek, a site dedicated to electric vehicles, reproduces a Musk tweet in which he claims a million mile life for a Tesla:

    On that basis, Musk explains how Tesla owners will make money [as always, edits and emphasis mine]:

    “The average Tesla car is currently parked for 22 hours per day. Starting next year, owners will be able to flip a switch inside the Tesla app, and send out their car to pick up and drop off passengers autonomously, earning an estimated 65 cents per mile in fares. […] owners might be able to earn $30,000 in gross revenue from their cars per year, or more than $300,000 in revenue over the 11-year lifespan of their car. With a basic version of the Model 3 costing $38,000 after incentives, self-driving Tesla robotaxis could become a profitable side business for owners…”

    …and…

    “The fundamental message that consumers should be taking today is that it is financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla, […] it will be like owning a horse in three years. I mean, fine if you want to own a horse. But you should go into it with that expectation.”

    This, Musk says, will transform Tesla into a $500 billion companyparticipating in a $3 trillion autonomous-mobility-as-a-service market. Right around the corner.

    Regrettably, Musk’s self-indulgence — his PR as performance art — has cauterized our nerve endings, leading to a jaded look at the more substantial technical parts of the Autonomy Day presentation (full video here, slides here, a helpful CleanTechnica technical commentary here). Indeed, some of the tasty technical morsels must be consumed with caution, especially when it comes to the processing power of Tesla’s autonomous driving computer, or the claim that the company’s use of video cameras is vastly superior to the lidars(3D laser scanners) used by everyone else, Waymo (part of the Alphabet/Google empire) in particular.

    But, if we make a patient effort to see through the PR excesses, we see an interesting image come into focus, a picture of Tesla winning the war with its software weapons and its vertical integration.

    Turning to mainstream, legacy car companies, we have to ask what they know about software — and do they even care? The Engine Control Unit, the computer that controls ignition and fuel injection, comes from a vendor like Robert Bosch (my autokorrekt wants to write “ogre botch”); the gearbox controller from ZF (as in toothed gears, Zahnrad Fabrik) or Japan’s Aisin; and the entertainment/navigation module from Panasonic and others. And they all use bundled software. To conventional automakers, software is a sourced component, often from the lowest bidder, a hard-to-control annoyance.

    It’s a situation that’s reminiscent of the early days of cell phones. Motorola and Nokia had software because they had to, they even boasted about being good at it, only to be displaced by competitors who loved software, namely Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS.

    Love isn’t the word I’d use for Detroit’s or Sindelfingen’s relationship with software, it’s more like conjugal duty, something one must do.

    Tesla, on the other hand, loves, treasures software. Yes, the company violates the tried-and-true manufacturing rules pioneered by Toyota (see The Machine That Changed The World) and adopted by the entire industry, a sin for which it has often been criticized (including yours truly). But the critics ignore Tesla’s not-so-secret weapon: Vertical integration allowed by its control of its own software.

    Tesla’s manufacturing operations might not be the smoothest in the industry, but it controls all of the hardware and software layers in its product, something no other major car maker seems to be able to do. To a Valley geek, that sounds a bit like a company that’s not too far from Fremont (an observation I owe to someone deeply familiar with such large scale integration).

    Tesla’s frequent OTA (Over The Air) software updates might help illustrate the trouble legacy automakers are in. Why don’t the incumbents update software in their cars the way Tesla does? Because their systems are cobbled together, without a central control point, because it’s what they’ve always done in a culture that lacks the right taste buds.

    Critics still say the jury is out whether Musk will finally get Tesla to a positive cash-flow status, whether Tesla will be an autonomous (pun intended) company standing solely on its own resources. But let’s consider that as a struggling, imperfect company, Tesla outsells Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Lexus in the US, and is now said to top European sales chart for premium mid-size sedans, meaning the likes of BMW 3 Series, Benz C-Class and Audi A4.

    We know competitors are coming from Germany and China, from serious companies, with products that look good on our screens. Whether they’ll have a competitive, well-integrated combination of hardware and software remains to be seen.

    One last sad thing: Where’s Detroit? How can Ford, GM, and Chrysler compete with Musk?

    To paraphrase a well-known venture investor: Software will eat the world of legacy automakers.

    [I’m not avoiding Waymo, to be discussed later in a dedicated Monday Note looking beyond technology.]

    — JLG@mondaynote.com


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla (TSLA) stock falls on demand concern from analyst, continued trade war

    https://apple.news/AP2Ln_JUdTZe00TXFga-s4Q

    Triple whammy: low demand, new dilution last week and trade war...

    One question remains about the incentives. The administration has said they would help farmers during the tough period. We know automobiles tariffs are a huge sticking point with Europe. How far are we from congress giving a full EV credit back but only for American EVs?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    A couple of observation from someone who doesn't have a dog ion the fight.

    Why would someone buy a Tesla today when the viability of the company is in question?

    The article posted above claims that the software prowess of Tesla will be its salvation and give it a competitive edge over the legacy manufactures. Apparently the author is not aware that many in the car buying market are not interested in paying for software they will not use. Car buyers want a safe, comfortable, and reliable car for transportation to get them from point A to point B.

    I hope Tesla survives. Musk needs to focus on Tesla and nothing else and stop acting like Trump.surprise


    --

    Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The viability of the company is not in question, it will survive one way or the other, just the brand and the tech is worth billions. What is in question is the value of its shares and bonds. It is very clear that if today you wiped its debt payments, it would be profitable after some moderate cost cutting (at worst).

    The other thing in question is the value of Musk as Tesla’s leader. On one hand he is a tech visionary and has convinced investors to plunk billions into his dream, on the other he often speaks too much and his predictions are years ahead of when they will happen.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Hmm, Musk himself stated if they didn't control cost in the next 8 months they would be bankrupt. Car buyers don't need to hear that and certainly don't want to be buying from this manufacturer. I wouldn't.Smiley


    --

    Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Bankrupt doesn’t mean the company goes away. Most if not all existing car manufacturers have gone bankrupt at some point or the other.

    That said, of course this does not resonate well with the costumers, but where is the competition anyway? Still 2-5 years behind... Plus the EV space should grow, right now it is only 2% of the market, that leaves a lot of room for all the brands to flourish. Just look at first hand experiences here, once you have tasted EV and if it fits in your transportation needs, there is no going back.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Ford will cut 7,000 white-collar jobs

    https://apple.news/AbKU-FXhtSGWEGs6ilV5Llw

    10% of their workforce... is that going to stop you from buying a Ford? 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla Gigafactory 3 building in Shanghai looks almost complete

    https://apple.news/AbhzJeiiLRZiDDSWtO-mphg

    More signs of a company going under soon and having a hard time finding capital to fund their car building operations angrywink

     


     
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