Rennteam 2.0 - EN - Forum - What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves - Page1

Jul 5, 2005 2:55:31 PM

Mike S: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Somewhere , Taiwan; Posts: 7720, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 3, 2005

What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

hi guys,

we all know about the problems with oil we've been having since last year. over these past few days i've been reading a few car magazines and everytime somehow, the oil story manages to creep in. it's always about the "dwindling" reserves blah blah blah etc. i would just like your opinions about how servere do you guys think it actually is? the petrol+diesel price went up here again by $0,10 today and it has fluctuated up and down over the past few months. now if our fuel has been a big issue over this past year, then why do manufacturers keep popping out cars quicker than ever before?

i may be inaccurate with the facst, but hey i'm only human

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Jul 5, 2005 10:17:12 PM

racerx: Rennteam VIP; Loc: 1985 porsche dealership , Bouvet Island; Posts: 8751, Gallery; Registered on: Jul 27, 2004; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

If Iraq were producing at peak instead of being offline the price would be in the $30's. There is an awful lot of reserves in what is called shale, lots more than in oil. There are also newer processes to liquify coal and natural gas.

There must be some powers that be that are fat, dumb and happy with the current situation. Alternative sources like nukyerler should be expanded.

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Jul 6, 2005 6:22:57 AM

Mike S: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Somewhere , Taiwan; Posts: 7720, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 3, 2005; Reply to: racerx

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

so your opinion is somebody with a lot of influence in the industry is misusing his power, just because he can?

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Jul 6, 2005 7:06:54 AM

Futch: Rennteam Moderator; Loc: EU , United Kingdom; Posts: 4759, Gallery; Registered on: May 14, 2002; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Mike S said:
hi guys,

we all know about the problems with oil we've been having since last year. over these past few days i've been reading a few car magazines and everytime somehow, the oil story manages to creep in. it's always about the "dwindling" reserves blah blah blah etc. i would just like your opinions about how servere do you guys think it actually is? the petrol+diesel price went up here again by $0,10 today and it has fluctuated up and down over the past few months. now if our fuel has been a big issue over this past year, then why do manufacturers keep popping out cars quicker than ever before?

i may be inaccurate with the facst, but hey i'm only human

There are many theories out there regarding oil reserves.

Don't worry Mike, there's enough oil for the next 50 to 60 years, and that's just reserves, ie. what we've found and also despite the growing demand from China and India.

We will see the rise of alternative energies also eventually, but also, not for some time, and I seriously doubt it'll be hydrogen, too expensive, too dangerous, it will either Nuclear fusion (go ITER go!) or electricity if we finally manage to stock it!

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Jul 6, 2005 7:20:54 AM

Mike S: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Somewhere , Taiwan; Posts: 7720, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 3, 2005; Reply to: Futch

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

but these ever increasing oil prices are just concerning. everytime i think they've hit the highest they can go - what do you know! it goes up again the next month...

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Jul 6, 2005 9:38:54 AM

Futch: Rennteam Moderator; Loc: EU , United Kingdom; Posts: 4759, Gallery; Registered on: May 14, 2002; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Mike S said:
but these ever increasing oil prices are just concerning. everytime i think they've hit the highest they can go - what do you know! it goes up again the next month...

Oil price is cyclical, it'll go down again, although this time, I must admit they seem to be set at this price for a while. Give China and India time to settle.
Everybody is desperate for oil right now and in particular the Chinese, look at the hostile takeover on Unocal!
But so are the Americans, by far the largest oil consumer in the world.
Gas price in the States are soaring since a year, mark my words, this is only the beginning, should be par with Europe within ten years probably even less, at which point we won't see much trucks and SUVs on US roads.
It won't change much for world oil demand but it will change a lot for the US which in turn will affect world economy.
The Saudis could limit production, but then again, can't blame them, with the oil barel at $60, who would limit production? Exactly, not even OPEC!

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Jul 6, 2005 12:58:12 PM

palenimbus: Expert; Loc: Baden-Württemberg, Germany; Posts: 1824, Gallery; Registered on: Jul 6, 2004; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

The problem is not with reserves. The problem is with the rate of extraction which falls as oil fields age. Most of the world's largest oil fields were discovered decades ago and have reached hubbert's peak (where oil production peaks). So running out of oil isn't the issue, it's trying to extract the stuff.

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Jul 6, 2005 2:46:24 PM

Futch: Rennteam Moderator; Loc: EU , United Kingdom; Posts: 4759, Gallery; Registered on: May 14, 2002; Reply to: palenimbus

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Danny G said:
The problem is not with reserves. The problem is with the rate of extraction which falls as oil fields age. Most of the world's largest oil fields were discovered decades ago and have reached hubbert's peak (where oil production peaks). So running out of oil isn't the issue, it's trying to extract the stuff.

Hubbert's peak is just an unfounded theory.
I personally don't believe we've seen Hubbert's peak yet but that's another discussion.

And reserves is what you will produce as opposed to OOIP (Original Oil In Place).
And it's not so much about rates, North Sea is declining, but some wells in Angola produce 20,000 bopd (yes, just ONE well) that's over $1M of revenues PER DAY for one well!

Saudi Aramco could increase oil production by about 2 MBOES at the touch of a button but it's not gonna happen.

It's not about reserves or production rates, it's about geopolitical issues.
Whoever controls Irak in the near future should be fine for the next 30 years. US is looking good.

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Jul 6, 2005 3:16:55 PM

SoCal Alan: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Orange County , United States; Posts: 7268, Gallery; Registered on: Mar 6, 2004; Reply to: Futch

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Fanch said:
Gas price in the States are soaring since a year, mark my words, this is only the beginning, should be par with Europe within ten years probably even less, at which point we won't see much trucks and SUVs on US roads.

Not possible, unless Europe removes the large surcharge (ie., tax) on gas. The US definitely won't be adding a large surcharge. There will always be a large price differential between the US and Europe.

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Jul 6, 2005 3:38:57 PM

Mike S: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Somewhere , Taiwan; Posts: 7720, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 3, 2005; Reply to: Futch

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Fanch said:
Whoever controls Irak in the near future should be fine for the next 30 years. US is looking good.

so basically you are saying they are trying to limit the amount people consume, by making prices higher thus making less people make use of their cars for the enviroment?

and what about the remaining countries who won't have control over iraq? what happens when they decide to make prices so high we won't be able to afford to travel around in your own vehicles? sorry if i'm sounding pessimistic, not trying to, just would like some insight into what they future may hold.

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Jul 6, 2005 4:13:01 PM

Kevin Snyder: Newbie; Loc: Seabrook Island, SC, USA; Posts: 31, Gallery; Registered on: Jul 7, 2004; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Sobering. What do you think???

Kevin

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Jul 6, 2005 4:22:03 PM

elysium: Senior; Loc: Oslo; Posts: 553, Gallery; Registered on: Aug 26, 2004; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Mike S said:
Quote:
Fanch said:
Whoever controls Irak in the near future should be fine for the next 30 years. US is looking good.

so basically you are saying they are trying to limit the amount people consume, by making prices higher thus making less people make use of their cars for the enviroment?

and what about the remaining countries who won't have control over iraq? what happens when they decide to make prices so high we won't be able to afford to travel around in your own vehicles? sorry if i'm sounding pessimistic, not trying to, just would like some insight into what they future may hold.

I sincerly doubt that the environment are first on their agenda. They probobly care, but it's not close to being the deciding factor.

And from what I understand, the problem isn't that the Iraqis or whoever else does not produce enough now, the oil for sale on the market today is (according to my knowledge at least) for delivery in 2009. The problem is rather that fields are not being found at the rate others are becomming unproftable. And the buyers of oil don't see that the situation will become better anytime soon.

But the oil won't run out in quite some time, many fields who are now closed still have a lot of oil in them, but with todays technology and prices they weren't profitable. Wich leaves huge improvements in technology or a stable high oil price as the options..

elysium

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Jul 6, 2005 4:51:48 PM

Futch: Rennteam Moderator; Loc: EU , United Kingdom; Posts: 4759, Gallery; Registered on: May 14, 2002; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Mike S said:
Quote:
Fanch said:
Whoever controls Irak in the near future should be fine for the next 30 years. US is looking good.

so basically you are saying they are trying to limit the amount people consume, by making prices higher thus making less people make use of their cars for the enviroment?

and what about the remaining countries who won't have control over iraq? what happens when they decide to make prices so high we won't be able to afford to travel around in your own vehicles? sorry if i'm sounding pessimistic, not trying to, just would like some insight into what they future may hold.

What I'm saying is not that people make less use of their cars, I'm saying that oil companies (private and national) are making as much money as they can.
People forget about the national oil companies, ExxonMobil is not the largest oil company in the worl, it's Saudi Aramco, which is why Americans interest are so high in the Middle East (Aramco: Arabian American Company)
Read the Prize by Daniel Yergin, fascintating book on a fascinating industry.

Re car, true, is Americans were more energy conscious, the oil bill would be far greater, mostly due to SUV consumption.
Diesel cars are gaining market shares in the States.

Price won't get out of control, it's always been about compromises between OPEC members, non members, the US and the stock market.
Don't worry, we will enjoy our sports cars for a while.

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Jul 6, 2005 5:21:09 PM

racerx: Rennteam VIP; Loc: 1985 porsche dealership , Bouvet Island; Posts: 8751, Gallery; Registered on: Jul 27, 2004; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
Mike S said:
so your opinion is somebody with a lot of influence in the industry is misusing his power, just because he can?

No one in particular but lots of people who benefit from the current situation. All the big oil companies are reporting massive profits, opec is raking in the dough, the politicians are short sighted and don't give a phuck.

The us should already be building lots of nuke power plants, and using govt. grants and massive tax benefits to kickstart all alternative sources including fusion as already mentioned.

In general you should be pessemistic because the indians and chinese have failed to learn from the Wests' stupidity and should structure their society based on mass transportation not on individual movement. (epcot and futurisic movie-like) But right now i suggest you put as many miles on your rides as possible. Future generations will look back at this time like we look at the wild west and gunfighters. They'll be amazed at these personal rockets we have and the indulgence of burning scarce resources for amusement!

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Jul 6, 2005 5:33:26 PM

SoCal Alan: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Orange County , United States; Posts: 7268, Gallery; Registered on: Mar 6, 2004; Reply to: racerx

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
racerx said:
The us should already be building lots of nuke power plants, and using govt. grants and massive tax benefits to kickstart all alternative sources including fusion as already mentioned.

Good luck. I agree, but good luck.

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Jul 7, 2005 9:11:37 AM

Mike S: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Somewhere , Taiwan; Posts: 7720, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 3, 2005; Reply to: racerx

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
racerx said:
In general you should be pessemistic because the indians and chinese have failed to learn from the Wests' stupidity and should structure their society based on mass transportation not on individual movement. (epcot and futurisic movie-like) But right now i suggest you put as many miles on your rides as possible. Future generations will look back at this time like we look at the wild west and gunfighters. They'll be amazed at these personal rockets we have and the indulgence of burning scarce resources for amusement!

i know change isn't always neccessarily bad, but i can't seem myself not being able to drive my babies in the future!

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Jul 7, 2005 2:12:55 PM

Ryan in SD: Senior; Loc: San Diego; Posts: 604, Gallery; Registered on: Nov 14, 2004; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

RE the original question:

I dont think sucking up all the oil is a big problem because by the time we do, gas engines will be outdated anyway...

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Jul 8, 2005 7:50:17 PM

Hurst: Veteran; Loc: Potomac, MD; Posts: 1255, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 15, 2005; Reply to: Mike S

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Here are some interesting links I picked up from metafilter:

Saudis Warn of Shortfalls as Oil hits 61$

Peak Oil Interview with former Bush advisor

Hybrid power?

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Jul 8, 2005 11:28:40 PM

Mike S: Rennteam VIP; Loc: Somewhere , Taiwan; Posts: 7720, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 3, 2005; Reply to: Hurst

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

erg!

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Jul 8, 2005 11:44:40 PM

nberry: Rennteam VIP; Loc: La Jolla, USA , United States; Posts: 13709, Gallery; Registered on: Apr 11, 2002; Reply to: racerx

Re: What are your opinions about the world's oil reserves

Quote:
racerx said:
Quote:
Mike S said:
so your opinion is somebody with a lot of influence in the industry is misusing his power, just because he can?

No one in particular but lots of people who benefit from the current situation. All the big oil companies are reporting massive profits, opec is raking in the dough, the politicians are short sighted and don't give a phuck.

The us should already be building lots of nuke power plants, and using govt. grants and massive tax benefits to kickstart all alternative sources including fusion as already mentioned.

In general you should be pessemistic because the indians and chinese have failed to learn from the Wests' stupidity and should structure their society based on mass transportation not on individual movement. (epcot and futurisic movie-like) But right now i suggest you put as many miles on your rides as possible. Future generations will look back at this time like we look at the wild west and gunfighters. They'll be amazed at these personal rockets we have and the indulgence of burning scarce resources for amusement!

We don't agree often but your post could not be stated any better. Time is running out not only for oil but for other resources especially those in the oceans and rivers.

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