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    May 21, 2023 3:06:14 PM

    SSO. Offline
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    Ferrari’s Q1 2023 Results – The Galloping Horse

    Just posted up the analysis on Ferrari's Q1 2023 Results:

    Ferrari had a spectacular year in 2022 and that momentum has continued to build in 2023.  Every single key financial indicator, bar one, grew double digits vs. Q 1 2022.  The only hiccup, Free Cash Flow, was down by 9.9% but even there are good reasons for the decline which can be seen as a strong indication for more upcoming growth.  The order book is very healthy, extending now into 2025, and Ferrari indicated that Q2 will be another strong quarter.  Ferrari management then indulged in a bit of sand bagging and tried to downplay expectations for the back half of the year by indicating they expected Q4 to be the weakest quarter in 2023.

    Full article: Ferrari's Q 1 2023 Results

    Thoughts and comments?

    May 22, 2023 10:19:57 AM

    crayphile
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    Reply to: SSO.

    Re: Ferrari’s Q1 2023 Results – The Galloping Horse

    Excellent analysis as ever . Agree, complacency and hubris are the greatest threat along with, of course, a macroeconomic meltdown . Your list of competitive threats are less of an issue - GMA?? Pretty much every GMA buyer will have several Ferraris in the garage now and going forward. Aston & McLaren are minor irritants rather than a significant threat.

    May 22, 2023 12:15:48 PM

    SSO. Offline
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    Re: Ferrari’s Q1 2023 Results – The Galloping Horse

    crayphile:

    Excellent analysis as ever . Agree, complacency and hubris are the greatest threat along with, of course, a macroeconomic meltdown . Your list of competitive threats are less of an issue - GMA?? Pretty much every GMA buyer will have several Ferraris in the garage now and going forward. Aston & McLaren are minor irritants rather than a significant threat.

    On McLaren, today it is a minor irritant but back in 2016/2017 it was a major PIA for Ferrari.  History can repeat itself.  On GMA, if they go down market one more notch to the $1 mil range and up production they could steal quite a few sales from Ferrari.  For these buyers it is a choice on capital allocation and capital that's allocated to GMA is capital that could have gone to Ferrari.

    May 22, 2023 12:49:57 PM

    crayphile
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    Reply to: SSO.

    Re: Ferrari’s Q1 2023 Results – The Galloping Horse

    SSO.:
    crayphile:

    Excellent analysis as ever . Agree, complacency and hubris are the greatest threat along with, of course, a macroeconomic meltdown . Your list of competitive threats are less of an issue - GMA?? Pretty much every GMA buyer will have several Ferraris in the garage now and going forward. Aston & McLaren are minor irritants rather than a significant threat.

    On McLaren, today it is a minor irritant but back in 2016/2017 it was a major PIA for Ferrari.  History can repeat itself.  On GMA, if they go down market one more notch to the $1 mil range and up production they could steal quite a few sales from Ferrari.  For these buyers it is a choice on capital allocation and capital that's allocated to GMA is capital that could have gone to Ferrari.

    In the spirit of debate  - I think you have your McLaren blinkers on again and I think GMA buyers are blind SmileySmileySmiley. More seriously, GMA will struggle with volume and margins if it goes downwards.

    May 22, 2023 3:15:08 PM

    WhoopsyM Offline
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    Reply to: SSO.

    Re: Ferrari’s Q1 2023 Results – The Galloping Horse

    SSO.:
    crayphile:

    Excellent analysis as ever . Agree, complacency and hubris are the greatest threat along with, of course, a macroeconomic meltdown . Your list of competitive threats are less of an issue - GMA?? Pretty much every GMA buyer will have several Ferraris in the garage now and going forward. Aston & McLaren are minor irritants rather than a significant threat.

    On McLaren, today it is a minor irritant but back in 2016/2017 it was a major PIA for Ferrari.  History can repeat itself.  On GMA, if they go down market one more notch to the $1 mil range and up production they could steal quite a few sales from Ferrari.  For these buyers it is a choice on capital allocation and capital that's allocated to GMA is capital that could have gone to Ferrari.

     

    I wouldn't called it a major PITA, in Ferrari's eyes in was a minor hiccup. For those buyers that crossed shop McLaren and the Ferrari 488 back then, those are the people that can only afford ONE supercar, aka the casual Ferrari buyer, That's not Ferrari's bread and butter customers. These aren't on Ferrari dealers priority list so they only buy a McLaren when they can't get a 488.

    And then for the market of 7 figure cars. On average they would have 10-15+ cars already. a GMA car would just be an addition, they aren't choosing between GMA or Ferrari, GMA aren't stealing anyone's sales. GMA picked the correct timeframe, no one else has a product in that price range right now, everyone else is in between products. 

    Between the 4 confirmed GMA buyers that I know, they are within the 918 owners circle, one has a warehouse full of Ferraris old and new,  another start buying historic race cars at 7 figures each when there aren't road cars to buy. One has a warehouse full of cars, Ferrari Porsche McLaren Aston, Pagani you name it. And the last one, he bought a place in Switzerland just so he can keep his AMG ONE allocation when the car isn't coming to North America. 

    The very top end of the car market isn't easily rationalized, those people spend millions like how we spend hundreds, it's hard to comprehend for normal people. 

     


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