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    We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    of the 430 replacement but I have yet to see anything regarding this new model. Clearly it must be in the testing stage and at a minimum one would think at least a photo of a disguised model. Yet, absolutely nothing on this car.

    Dealers in the US by next summer need to be taking orders for a car in the fall since they cannot sell the 430 as of Sept. 1, 2008. Very strange.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    of the 430 replacement but I have yet to see anything regarding this new model. Clearly it must be in the testing stage and at a minimum one would think at least a photo of a disguised model. Yet, absolutely nothing on this car.

    Dealers in the US by next summer need to be taking orders for a car in the fall since they cannot sell the 430 as of Sept. 1, 2008. Very strange.



    IMO we already have seen test mules around, we just haven't recognised them.

    Since we will see a car similar to the F430 (upgraded V8, same layout), Ferrari surely uses F430-shells for testing. I expect the first heavily camouflaged spy pics by the end of year.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    I wonder whether they will just suspend 430 sales here and introduce the new"Dino" in the US as the short term repacement?

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    Jerry said:
    I wonder whether they will just suspend 430 sales here and introduce the new"Dino" in the US as the short term repacement?



    I don't think so. In 2008 the F430 will be on the market for four years, together with the F360 which is basically the same car, that makes a total life span of nine years, which would be the normal time for a replacement by a totally new model.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Rossi, in reading the application for the exemption prepared by Ferrari, you get the distinct impression that the replacement will be completely revised. Just like there was no resemblance between the 355 and 360, I suspect the replacement a major departure from the 430.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Rossi, in reading the application for the exemption prepared by Ferrari, you get the distinct impression that the replacement will be completely revised. Just like there was no resemblance between the 355 and 360, I suspect the replacement a major departure from the 430.



    Absolutely Nick, the new car should be a totally new model (that's why I'm so excited, let's hope they'll get it right ).
    But it surerly will be midengined and it probably will share the same V8 witht the F430, so I expect the dimensions not to be that drastically different, especially as I don't think that the new car will grow as much as the F360 did in comparison to the F355. So testing in F430 body shells should be possible.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino". Also the current production lines of both the 8 and 12cyl will be replaced.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    Patriek said:
    I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino". Also the current production lines of both the 8 and 12cyl will be replaced.



    Would make sense. They will launch the CS this fall and the base model is still selling quite nicely. Also, the competition is not ahead of the F430 in terms of performance. No need to rush I would argue

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    I was under the impression that the 'super Ferraris' reflected stylistic and techical trends for the rest of the Ferrari range, just like the F50 influenced the 355 and the Enzo the 430.

    By that rationale, the F60 should usher in the new era.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    I read that the 430cs is going to cost "only" 200.000 euros...

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Jesus... 200 grand?! Can anyone else confirm that?

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    palenimbus said:
    Jesus... 200 grand?! Can anyone else confirm that?



    That would make sense. The base model costs 150.000 EUR.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    Patriek said:
    I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino". Also the current production lines of both the 8 and 12cyl will be replaced.



    Very true. Ferrari's V8 model line is updated every 5 years, with a completely new platform every 2 generations.

    Same platform : F348/F355 (1989-1999).
    New platform : F360 (1999-2004) and F430 (2004-2009).

    2009 will see a completely new platform.

    The new Dino will arrive before the F142..

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Timelines for car model cycles keep changing/are likely shrinking, as are those of any tech-intensive goods in a competitive mkt w/weak mfr pricing power, despite an explosion of global wealth creation (I suspect the guys at less tech-intensive Patek/Petrus laugh at F's inability to materially raise MSRP globally, despite dollar's decline over last 3yrs and the alleged unmet US demand for F's)....

    Consider various factors that didn't exist/were much less signif 5 yrs ago, e.g., F's own financial strategy vs Fiat, poss IPO/spinoff and need to optimize oper profits; fixed produc vols vs expand produc vols; pace of mech/tech hardware/software advances; pace of advances at P/AMG; though F artificially lims US to 30%ish of global F produc, if US F mkt softens, doubt various emerging mkts will view F brand as strongly (clearly, EU demand for F is fairly tepid, best illustrating the "delicate" supply/demand game F plays ), etc etc....

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    VKSF said:
    Timelines for car model cycles keep changing/are likely shrinking, as are those of any tech-intensive goods in a competitive mkt w/weak mfr pricing power, despite an explosion of global wealth creation (I suspect the guys at less tech-intensive Patek/Petrus laugh at F's inability to materially raise MSRP globally, despite dollar's decline over last 3yrs and the alleged unmet US demand for F's)....

    Consider various factors that didn't exist/were much less signif 5 yrs ago, e.g., F's own financial strategy vs Fiat, poss IPO/spinoff and need to optimize oper profits; fixed produc vols vs expand produc vols; pace of mech/tech hardware/software advances; pace of advances at P/AMG; though F artificially lims US to 30%ish of global F produc, if US F mkt softens, doubt various emerging mkts will view F brand as strongly (clearly, EU demand for F is fairly tepid, best illustrating the "delicate" supply/demand game F plays ), etc etc....



    Wow, it's a real challenge to read your well thought out posts!

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    VKSF said:
    Timelines for car model cycles keep changing/are likely shrinking, as are those of any tech-intensive goods in a competitive mkt w/weak mfr pricing power, despite an explosion of global wealth creation (I suspect the guys at less tech-intensive Patek/Petrus laugh at F's inability to materially raise MSRP globally, despite dollar's decline over last 3yrs and the alleged unmet US demand for F's)....

    Consider various factors that didn't exist/were much less signif 5 yrs ago, e.g., F's own financial strategy vs Fiat, poss IPO/spinoff and need to optimize oper profits; fixed produc vols vs expand produc vols; pace of mech/tech hardware/software advances; pace of advances at P/AMG; though F artificially lims US to 30%ish of global F produc, if US F mkt softens, doubt various emerging mkts will view F brand as strongly (clearly, EU demand for F is fairly tepid, best illustrating the "delicate" supply/demand game F plays ), etc etc....



    And yet, the factory people confirm just the opposite :

    "I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino"."

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    Crash said:
    Quote:
    palenimbus said:
    Jesus... 200 grand?! Can anyone else confirm that?



    That would make sense. The base model costs 150.000 EUR.



    Does make no sense at all IMO. Don't know where this rumour comes from.

    I'm expecting something around 185k. Take a look at the Superleggera, it costs 187k as a direct competitor.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    shin said:
    Quote:
    VKSF said:
    Timelines for car model cycles keep changing/are likely shrinking, as are those of any tech-intensive goods in a competitive mkt w/weak mfr pricing power, despite an explosion of global wealth creation (I suspect the guys at less tech-intensive Patek/Petrus laugh at F's inability to materially raise MSRP globally, despite dollar's decline over last 3yrs and the alleged unmet US demand for F's)....

    Consider various factors that didn't exist/were much less signif 5 yrs ago, e.g., F's own financial strategy vs Fiat, poss IPO/spinoff and need to optimize oper profits; fixed produc vols vs expand produc vols; pace of mech/tech hardware/software advances; pace of advances at P/AMG; though F artificially lims US to 30%ish of global F produc, if US F mkt softens, doubt various emerging mkts will view F brand as strongly (clearly, EU demand for F is fairly tepid, best illustrating the "delicate" supply/demand game F plays ), etc etc....



    And yet, the factory people confirm just the opposite :

    "I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino"."



    Don't always believe what the factory tries to tell you. They also said that there will be no Dino, now they are building production plants for it.

    Dealer told me to expect the 430-replacement in late 2008.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    Patriek said:
    I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino". Also the current production lines of both the 8 and 12cyl will be replaced.



    Patriek the factory tour guides know less than you or I regarding models and timing. I often wondered whether they were kept deliberately in the dark in order to protect the information.

    Again, Ferrari is on record no more 430 sales in the US after August 2008. here is the summary of the DOT exemption.

    Taken directly from the Federal Register

    Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 98 / Monday, May 22, 2006 / Notices 29389


    SUMMARY: This notice grants the Ferrari
    S.p.A. and Ferrari North America
    (collectively, ''Ferrari'') application for a
    temporary exemption from the
    requirements of S14.2 of Federal Motor
    Vehicle Safety Standard (''FMVSS'') No.
    208, Occupant Crash Protection. The
    exemption applies to the Ferrari F430
    vehicle line. In accordance with 49 CFR
    Part 555, the basis for the grant is that
    compliance would cause substantial
    economic hardship to a low-volume
    manufacturer that has tried in good faith
    to comply with the standard, and the
    exemption would have a negligible
    impact on motor vehicle safety. The
    exemption is effective September 1,
    2006 and will remain in effect until
    August 31, 2008.

    In their supporting documents, Ferrari indicated the replacement will be ready in the latter part of 2008. Therefore, they asked for the exmption until Aug 2008. If they were not going to replace the 430 at that time, they would have asked for a longer period for the exemption.

    Finally, please understand the Ferrari dealerships in the US suffered a great deal in the early ninties and many went out of business. If Ferrari cannot sell its best selling car after Aug. 2008, most of the dealers will probably go out of business. Their only hope is if they do not replace the 430 at that time, they get the exemption extended and that is a very rare occurrence given what they had to say in their supporting documents.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    Rossi said:
    Quote:
    Crash said:
    Quote:
    palenimbus said:
    Jesus... 200 grand?! Can anyone else confirm that?



    That would make sense. The base model costs 150.000 EUR.



    Does make no sense at all IMO. Don't know where this rumour comes from.

    I'm expecting something around 185k. Take a look at the Superleggera, it costs 187k as a direct competitor.



    You're probably right. Might be a bit too expensive for Americans (its MSRP being the same as the standard 430 market price ).

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    shin said:
    Quote:
    Patriek said:
    I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino". Also the current production lines of both the 8 and 12cyl will be replaced.



    Very true. Ferrari's V8 model line is updated every 5 years, with a completely new platform every 2 generations.

    Same platform : F348/F355 (1989-1999).
    New platform : F360 (1999-2004) and F430 (2004-2009).

    2009 will see a completely new platform.

    The new Dino will arrive before the F142..



    This directly out of Ferrari's temporary exemption request;

    " In general, the life cycle for Ferrari vehicles sold to the public is 8-9 years, which is comprised of an initial production run of 4-5 years, followed by an aesthetic face lift on the same chassis (sometimes coupled with a new engine) for another four years of production.'

    "Ferrari plans to produce F430 models until late 2008; at that point, the F430 will be replaced by a newly-designed 8-cylinder model."

    "Finally .....although the statute contemplates that such exemptions will be issued for three years, Ferrari is seeking only a two-year exemption....

    This petition was submitted in July 2005. It seems pretty clear to me that the 430 replacement will be introduced in the fall of 2008.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Patriek the factory tour guides know less than you or I regarding models and timing. I often wondered whether they were kept deliberating in the dark in order to protect the information.



    If I were Ferrari, that would be the way for me to handle the problem.

    Concerning the life span of the F430, nobody says it has to build for the full 5 years as in case of the F360. The F430 is a revised Modena, so if the produce it "only" for four years, that wouldn't be a surprise.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    Rossi said:
    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Patriek the factory tour guides know less than you or I regarding models and timing. I often wondered whether they were kept deliberating in the dark in order to protect the information.



    If I were Ferrari, that would be the way for me to handle the problem.

    Concerning the life span of the F430, nobody says it has to build for the full 5 years as in case of the F360. The F430 is a revised Modena, so if the produce it "only" for four years, that wouldn't be a surprise.



    The F430 is to F360 what the F355 is to F348, and the F355 (the revised F348) lasted for 5 years.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Quote:
    shin said:
    Quote:
    Patriek said:
    I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino". Also the current production lines of both the 8 and 12cyl will be replaced.



    Very true. Ferrari's V8 model line is updated every 5 years, with a completely new platform every 2 generations.

    Same platform : F348/F355 (1989-1999).
    New platform : F360 (1999-2004) and F430 (2004-2009).

    2009 will see a completely new platform.

    The new Dino will arrive before the F142..



    This directly out of Ferrari's temporary exemption request;

    " In general, the life cycle for Ferrari vehicles sold to the public is 8-9 years, which is comprised of an initial production run of 4-5 years, followed by an aesthetic face lift on the same chassis (sometimes coupled with a new engine) for another four years of production.'

    "Ferrari plans to produce F430 models until late 2008; at that point, the F430 will be replaced by a newly-designed 8-cylinder model."

    "Finally .....although the statute contemplates that such exemptions will be issued for three years, Ferrari is seeking only a two-year exemption....

    This petition was submitted in July 2005. It seems pretty clear to me that the 430 replacement will be introduced in the fall of 2008.



    One thing you might not see but it's coming : that 'newly designed 8-cylinder model' could very well be the 'Dino', and not necessarily means the F142.

    I don't see any reason why the F142 will be released before or at the same time as the 'Dino'. As the new entry level model, the 'Dino' must arrive first.

    Please don't get me wrong. The F142 is the car I've been anticipating the MOST, of all models of all marques. But realistically, I don't think we would see it before end of 2009.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Note that Ferrari did not mention the new model as the F430's successor, word-by-word.

    They stated it as either 'a replacement to the F430' or 'a new 8-cylinder model'.

    It's been automatically assumed as the F142, but I don't think that's necessarily the case.

    Remember that the 'Dino' will be the new entry level model, the new volume seller while the F142 will move up in price.

    When a Ferrari dealer mentions 'a replacement for the F430', they don't necessarily mean it as the F430's direct successor (mid-engined F142). Pricewise, and in terms of marketing/sales, the 'Dino' will be the F430's 'replacement' (= it will replace the F430's position as the entry level model). And before anyone pointing out that a successor to a mid-engined model should always be another mid-engined one, I believe the front-engined 550 Maranello was replacing a mid-engined model. Even if it's not a direct spiritual successor, it was the replacement in terms of price, wasn't it?

    Just like Ferrari constantly denying a new 'small' or 'cheap' Ferrari simply because the Dino will not be small or cheap, the same twisting of words could also apply to the F430's replacement/successor situation.

    I could be wrong, but I could also be right, couldn't I..?

    But I think my theory could explain why there has been two versions of when the F430's 'replacement' is coming. One version always mentions end 2008/early 2009 and the other always mentions end 2009/early 2010.

    I believe 2008/2009 will see the Dino (new 8-cylinder model) and 2009/2010 will see the F142.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Quote:
    shin said:
    Quote:
    Patriek said:
    I was in Modena, at the factory last week, and everybody there told me replacement should be there in 2010, (press end 2009), and NOT 2009 or even 2008 as Nick here is telling us.
    The production cycle of the 430 should be 5 years !

    They are also building new production plants for the coming "Dino". Also the current production lines of both the 8 and 12cyl will be replaced.



    Very true. Ferrari's V8 model line is updated every 5 years, with a completely new platform every 2 generations.

    Same platform : F348/F355 (1989-1999).
    New platform : F360 (1999-2004) and F430 (2004-2009).

    2009 will see a completely new platform.

    The new Dino will arrive before the F142..



    This directly out of Ferrari's temporary exemption request;

    " In general, the life cycle for Ferrari vehicles sold to the public is 8-9 years, which is comprised of an initial production run of 4-5 years, followed by an aesthetic face lift on the same chassis (sometimes coupled with a new engine) for another four years of production.'

    "Ferrari plans to produce F430 models until late 2008; at that point, the F430 will be replaced by a newly-designed 8-cylinder model."

    "Finally .....although the statute contemplates that such exemptions will be issued for three years, Ferrari is seeking only a two-year exemption....

    This petition was submitted in July 2005. It seems pretty clear to me that the 430 replacement will be introduced in the fall of 2008.



    Agreed.
    All imo - I think you're going to see customers spec'ing pista's this summer/fall taking delivery of the pista starting later this year to Spring/Summer. Orders in for the new car Summer 2008, delivery late 2008. Price for the pista - $225k US.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introducti

    You don't think F dealers can weather one year without a 430 line? With all the cash they gouge right now on "used" 430s and 599s? I think they will be fine.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Shin wrote, "I could be wrong, but I could also be right, couldn't I..? "

    Anything is possible but I don't believe it is plausible. The entire petition was discussing the 430 and ITS replacement. If they wanted to keep selling the 430 into 2009 all they had to do was ask for a three year exemption. Instead they only sought two years. Why would they do that?

    I am confident the replacement is for the 430 and nothing else.

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    shin said:
    The F430 is to F360 what the F355 is to F348, and the F355 (the revised F348) lasted for 5 years.



    Yes of course, but who says it always has to be like this?

    Re: We are less than 18 months from the introduction

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Shin wrote, "I could be wrong, but I could also be right, couldn't I..? "

    Anything is possible but I don't believe it is plausible. The entire petition was discussing the 430 and ITS replacement. If they wanted to keep selling the 430 into 2009 all they had to do was ask for a three year exemption. Instead they only sought two years. Why would they do that?

    I am confident the replacement is for the 430 and nothing else.



    If Ferrari presents the Dino next year (Paris motor show?), I guess it's highly unlikely that we see another new model the same year. So maybe the F430 successor will be delayed half a year...

     
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