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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Some roadster content:

    https://apple.news/A69wvF-7LR2qO7LRtP-KIpg 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Managed to get 356mwh/h on my daily commute today. Extrapolated for 100% battery, that would yield 280 miles (450km) of range for a 2.4t 7 seater using zero tricks to reduce energy usage or driving any slower or different than usual. This is a mix of city and highway driving up to 75mph (120km/h) with some moderate but real traffic and some elevation changes. Simply stunning. In ideal highway conditions, I could easily get over 300 miles of range (480km). And the car is even fitted with the less efficient 22” wheels angry. And I even floored the car a few times...

    On another note, Autosteer failed on a ramp with bad marking and that was wet and a lot of sun glare... I don’t think we are very close to autonomous driving. The car is still on the not so great 2019.8.3 (cannot force an update) and does not have the chip Musk touted yesterday (missed it by 2-3 weeks) but will be upgraded for free to it at later time, as part of the FSD package.

    Someone designed a website that you can access on the car browser that brings all the relevant Waze information on the screen. Very clever, teslawaze.comSmiley Like many think here, it is just a gadget with wheels that just happen to accelerate faster than my Aston and almost as fast as my 612 and California.

    As far as range anxiety, the system once again predicted EXACTLY how much battery would be left after the trip. Almost freaky.

    Do you charge it everyday or dry the batteries up to the limit? Important thing for a battery lifecyle is to sometime put it to lowest and then give it a good full charge. the top part part of the ''range'' is always the safe side, the last 50% usually dries faster because the voltage decrease within the battery. let us know the feedback Smiley

     


    --

    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    As recommended, I set the charging limit at 90% for daily usage. You can totally use up to 100% for trips if needed though, just not every day if possible. Then I will discharge down to 25-40% zone and recharge. That should be pretty much ideal for battery life. Apparently there are old packs out here with 150k miles and less than 10% degradation, so I do not think this is a real concern. There’s is a rumor Tesla is not only working on 120kw packs (for this year?) but also 1 million miles life... Even if they are not reused for cars, they can surely be used for homes backup and solar energy storing. On another note, the version 3 of solar roof tiles are out apparently, if good enough there should be a ramp up in production. Hopefully I can have a roof done by next summer.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla is working on new battery that lasts 1 million miles to come out next year, says Elon Musk

    https://apple.news/AYU-ykjXpQXyIPEii2Wk4Xw


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla S long range now officially 370 miles after some updates:

    https://apple.news/AigD2iSW5T2WypN3cG60LZw

    Please note: exact same battery as before. That means once a 120kw one is out (within a year?) range would be 450 miles. Bye bye range anxiety, and all that without any breakthrough, just good updates. That distance is SF to LA... The MT drivers could have driven 400 miles in that test. How many more tricks does Musk has up its sleeves?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    More details, there are quite a few changes:

    https://apple.news/AwhDD2tdbQxaMTRY0Dxy2uA 

    Along with the lower prices from last month, this should help S and X sales. Some might still hold out for the new batteries, but that’s probably a few months out. They had to do something to distinguish more the S/X and the 3. This is part of the answer. They are capable of reacting to the slump of sales in a couple of months vs years. Amazing. One has to wonder how much longer they can keep that pace of improvements. One can also wonder how will the other manufacturers will update their own EVs. If they keep the old 4+3=7 cycles, they are in big trouble as some the cars specs of cars not even out yet are already obsolete. This makes the E-Tron EPA range even worse when the car is not even for sale yet. The standard range X is now faster, fully loaded and now cheaper and 20% more range than the base no option E-Tron, and can be delivered in one month. And it can seat 7 people and has an existing supercharger network. 200kwh charging. And the Y is right behind.

    We are living fascinating times where the whole industry is being revolutionized in a way that has not happened for decades.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    It's very impressive. The Etron isn't even out yet and the Model X has 50-100 miles of range advantage over it at nearly the same price. Also worth noting, these new updates will handle up to 200 kw charging.

    Can it become any more clear that Tesla is probably just way ahead of the pack?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog, I do not think they will increase the pack size in the future. 450 miles will eliminate range anxiety, but it's doing it by brute force if you're mainly increase the battery size. Tesla could sell a 200 kwh pack if they really wanted to, but it's more important that people finally learn that they don't need such excess range. Tesla strives for efficiency, and that likely includes getting people to buy the size pack they really need, not the one they think they need in rare fringe cases.

    If Tesla's mission is sustainability and being clean, they don't want people buying needlessly large packs. I personally wouldn't buy a 120 kwh pack even though I could afford it. It's just a waste. I'm sure a few people and industries could benefit from it, but it's really overkill and not a good habit to get people buying them.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    They will make the 100kw base model and the 120+ as an option... Also remember that more capacity means a lot when not driving in perfect conditions or in a sporty fashion.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    That true, but I don't think that's Tesla's goal with the S and X. Roadster maybe, but not the S and X. They seemed pretty fine with current range and performance.

    It also might not be the best use of supply either. Battery supply is still constrained, so I'm guessing they ultimately will want to make the most of their batteries and production efficiencies. At some point, unless it was ungodly lucrative, it probably makes more sense to just make more cars with those batteries than just a single high margin trim. For example, it's likely better to sell 4 Model 3 with 60 kwh than one 240 kwh uber-S Special Performance Edition. That's an exaggeration of course, but I'm sure you see what I mean.

    I personally think 225 miles is a perfectly good range for the masses who charge at home every night. That just my opinion though.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    More details, there are quite a few changes:

    https://apple.news/AwhDD2tdbQxaMTRY0Dxy2uA 

    Along with the lower prices from last month, this should help S and X sales. Some might still hold out for the new batteries, but that’s probably a few months out. They had to do something to distinguish more the S/X and the 3. This is part of the answer. They are capable of reacting to the slump of sales in a couple of months vs years. Amazing. One has to wonder how much longer they can keep that pace of improvements. One can also wonder how will the other manufacturers will update their own EVs. If they keep the old 4+3=7 cycles, they are in big trouble as some the cars specs of cars not even out yet are already obsolete. This makes the E-Tron EPA range even worse when the car is not even for sale yet. The standard range X is now faster, fully loaded and now cheaper and 20% more range than the base no option E-Tron, and can be delivered in one month. And it can seat 7 people and has an existing supercharger network. 200kwh charging. And the Y is right behind.

    We are living fascinating times where the whole industry is being revolutionized in a way that has not happened for decades.

    This would also demonstrate the potential of proper engineering for EV cars. As current technology is still very early there should be big potential for the near future. That is also one of the reasons why I am very optimistic for the Taycan. For example, what effect does a gear-box have on the efficiency of an EV car? Probably a big one - but existing EV cars don't have a gear-box yet. Taycan will be first, if I am not wrong.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    So far, and this is very early, the gear box might only help for driving at high speeds, which is only in Germany today... Anyway, at these speeds, aerodynamics matter more than drivetrain efficiency.

    225 miles is very tight IMHO because in winter or if you drive more aggressively, it will be 125 miles real range. In suburban America, that’s too tight for confort. Personally 275 EPA miles range is doable but not less. People aren’t perfect either, some days some might forget to charge daily...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    So far, and this is very early, the gear box might only help for driving at high speeds, which is only in Germany today... Anyway, at these speeds, aerodynamics matter more than drivetrain efficiency.

    225 miles is very tight IMHO because in winter or if you drive more aggressively, it will be 125 miles real range. In suburban America, that’s too tight for confort. Personally 275 EPA miles range is doable but not less. People aren’t perfect either, some days some might forget to charge daily...

    Here why hybrids are the best solutions right now Smiley


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Well they are a solution for brands who do not offer more than 200 miles of range or so kiss


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Elon Musk Was Right: Cheap Cameras Could Replace Lidar on Self-Driving Cars, Researchers Find

    https://apple.news/AxnftKiHPQBeeAyuzbfryQQ


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    "Making Waymos in Motor City" (Level 4 autonomy)

    (23 April 2019)

    In January, we announced that we would open the world’s first factory 100% dedicated to the mass production of L4 autonomous vehicles. We wanted this facility to benefit from a location in southeast Michigan — the heart of the American automotive industry — and its strong talent base. We began looking for a facility that would allow us to quickly get up and running by mid-2019, while offering us the flexibility to continue to grow and expand our operations in Michigan over time and where there was a strong pool of talent across engineering, operations, and fleet coordination.

    Today, we’re excited to announce that we’ve found the perfect facility in Detroit. We will partner with American Axle & Manufacturing to repurpose an existing facility, bringing a workforce back to an area where jobs in the automotive industry were recently lost.

    We extend our sincerest thanks to Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Former Governor Rick Snyder, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, The Detroit Economic Growth Corporation (DEGC) and the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC) for their partnership and support.

    “By choosing to establish its new facility in Detroit, Waymo is continuing the city’s momentum and further cementing Michigan as a leader in mobility and the epicenter of advanced automotive manufacturing,” said Governor Gretchen Whitmer. “More and more Silicon Valley companies are looking to grow in Michigan as they realize the competitive advantages Michigan has to offer: high-tech engineering resources, top-notch research and design, and a highly skilled workforce matched with a low cost of living and low cost of doing business. We are pleased to welcome Waymo to Detroit and look forward to working with the company as it moves forward and brings jobs to Michigan residents.”

    Mayor Mike Duggan shared, “Today’s announcement by Waymo shows that the City of Detroit remains at the center of the future of the auto industry. Waymo could have located the world’s first 100% dedicated Level 4 autonomous vehicle factory anywhere. We deeply appreciate the confidence John Krafcik and the Waymo team are showing in the Motor City.”

    Additionally, thanks to our wonderful neighbors at American Axle & Manufacturing and Bedrock for helping Waymo find the perfect home in Motor City. We’re thrilled to join Detroit’s vibrant community, helping to play a role in the future of the automotive industry in the city that started it all.

    Link:  https://medium.com/waymo/making-waymos-in-motor-city-76c2af165165

    1556130937122image.png


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Does anyone have this issue or a subscription? Would be interesting to know if it's somewhat of a sensational or click-bait cover, or reasonably factual.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    It still is and always will be a very boring looking automobile. Life is too short to drive ugly cars.


    --

    997.2 4S / BMW X5 40e / Donkervoort GT 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Back to Tesla Roadsters -- 10 years ago:

    DSC_3973web.jpg


    --

    Mike

    918 Spyder + 991.2 GT2 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S P100D AP2 + Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The company should have stated within the premium market for a few more years as it built up an ample cash reserve before entering the mass market to compete against the Toyota Camrys and Honda Accords of the world.  Now the company under the expert tutelage of Mr. Musk has put up its assets as collateral on numerous capital raises as well as his numerous acquisition schemes including, but not limited to Solar City and additional shares in Tesla, to have first quarter 2019 financial results below analysts' expectations.   https://electrek.co/2019/04/24/tesla-tsla-q1-results/

    No wonder why some of the board have decided to jump ship within the last couple of weeks.  The frantic push in the last few days promoting its automation projects and its updating of the Models S and X will met tomorrow's market with a resounding thud.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    W8MM:

    Back to Tesla Roadsters -- 10 years ago:

    DSC_3973web.jpg

    Do you have the latest and greatest battery in that?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Gauss, I agree, but I really only came here for Taycan information. It's a coincidence that there is a popular Tesla topic. This is why I don't really read or post in any of the other topics on here. I'm not really trying to convince Porsche owners of anything. I generally just interested in the technology.

    If Porsche/Audi/VW weren't all the same company, I'm sure things like the Etron would not have come up at all. I think it makes sense to discuss something like the Etron since the companies and their products are so closely related. If Audi is having such efficiency issues, I think it's worth pondering if or how likely they will be to materialize in the coming Porsche products.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    keithw:

    Gauss, I agree, but I really only came here for Taycan information. It's a coincidence that there is a popular Tesla topic. This is why I don't really read or post in any of the other topics on here. I'm not really trying to convince Porsche owners of anything. I generally just interested in the technology.

    If Porsche/Audi/VW weren't all the same company, I'm sure things like the Etron would not have come up at all. I think it makes sense to discuss something like the Etron since the companies and their products are so closely related. If Audi is having such efficiency issues, I think it's worth pondering if or how likely they will be to materialize in the coming Porsche products.

    Given your interest in EV technology...

    ...the Audi e-tron GT looks famtastic!  Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla Inc 2019 Q1 results reported...  1553032464632image.gif

    1556144997710image.jpeg

    1556145011593image.jpeg

    1556145037336image.jpeg

    1556145048166image.jpeg

    1556145059113image.jpeg

    1556145075193image.jpeg

    1556145084319image.jpeg

    1556145095074image.jpeg

    1556145106303image.jpeg

    PDF Link:  http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    There is really nothing that's unexpected from Tesla's results.

    Even Elon's speech about 'his' system is better is also expected. He can't publicly admit he chose the wrong technology.  

    Tesla's camera based autopilot cruise control system is based around image recognition, Tesla literally have to feed millions of road images for the system to learn what is a driving lane and what isn't. And when the camera sees something that it doesn't have an image of, the system froze and hence why we read about those autopilot crashes.

    SciFrog has first hand experience about the autopilot failure on a off ramp I believe he had mentioned.

    The car delivery numbers are also as expected. They simply can't make the lofted number Elon promised quarter after quarter, hence hwy every quarter they are rushing in the last 2 weeks to pad the delivery numbers to make them look better.

    US market for Model 3 is pretty much exhausted, while the majority of those highly taunted 400k+ deposit holders have yet to actually get their hands on the base model, even with incentive from Tesla to try and entice them to move up the model range for the over stocked cars. No other car company in the world blame the delivery system for world wide deliveries, I wonder why. Maybe cause they don't lie to investors about their production and sales?

    There is no doubt Tesla had pioneered some stuff for automobile usage, some are great and some are not so great however. It's nice to have a highly connected car, but by the same token, what if the connectivity is disrupted, either via no cellular coverage or spotty coverage, or a cell tower went down, what happened then?

    Their battery technology is quite advance, and they have the advantage of in-house production and lowered cost vs the competition. But it would seems they are not fully taking advantage of that prime position with their products. 

    They also pioneered an alternative sales method, cutting out the middle man, aka dealers, which I do believe is a good thing. But a dealer's function is much more than just a sales outlet, it is also for after sales services and a temporary buffer for car inventory, smoothing out the delivery spikes that Elon claims Tesla is having trouble with.

    There is no doubt Elon has a great vision, but at times it's misguided and he is also not very goof and managing adversity in business, his last ventures are all quite successful from the beginning, Tesla is quite a new thing for him that he is still learning perhaps.

    As of today, I believe Tesla is worth 45 billion, which doesn't compare well with other in the segment, even considering Tesla's growth potential. I see a fair market value for Tesla coming in a perhaps half that, provided that they will be profitable soon and achieve partially their growth potential. A buyout price perhaps max-ed out at 30 billion. Even that could be a risk to the buyer. 


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    All self-driving is based around image recognition. Whether you use computer vision on RGB camera frames, or computer vision on LIDAR frames, it's always going to be based on recognizing label data and shapes. Tesla is not unique in this method. Waymo's system will not react any differently regarding things it doesn't recognize.

    In theory simply using normal cameras should be possible with powerful enough hardware and proper models. This is a fact. Whether that exists today or not, or is close to existing, I do not know. When Elon says "we don't need to shoot lasers out of our eyes to drive" regarding LIDAR, he's correct, though it is possible that we do need it to compensate for our other technological shortcomings.

    It's an absolute certainty that there is some arbitrary amount of computing power and model that can do perfect autonomous driving with just a camera. We just don't know what it is yet.

    I do not know if Elon will be right or if Waymo will be right, or if they'll both be right with various strengths and weaknesses. There's no denying that recording data from hundreds of thousands of real cars is going to be hugely useful to Tesla and it's definitely an advantage. On the other hand, Waymo has enormous resources and likely more experience in AI in general.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Boxster Coupe GTS:

    Given your interest in EV technology...

    ...the Audi e-tron GT looks famtastic!  Smiley

    It does look quite nice. It's based on the Taycan, I think. The Taycan is one seriously important product for Volkswagen. There's a lot riding on it.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    keithw:

    All self-driving is based around image recognition. Whether you use computer vision on RGB camera frames, or computer vision on LIDAR frames, it's always going to be based on recognizing label data and shapes. Tesla is not unique in this method. Waymo's system will not react any differently regarding things it doesn't recognize.

    In theory simply using normal cameras should be possible with powerful enough hardware and proper models. This is a fact. Whether that exists today or not, or is close to existing, I do not know. When Elon says "we don't need to shoot lasers out of our eyes to drive" regarding LIDAR, he's correct, though it is possible that we do need it to compensate for our other technological shortcomings.

    It's an absolute certainty that there is some arbitrary amount of computing power and model that can do perfect autonomous driving with just a camera. We just don't know what it is yet.

    I do not know if Elon will be right or if Waymo will be right, or if they'll both be right with various strengths and weaknesses. There's no denying that recording data from hundreds of thousands of real cars is going to be hugely useful to Tesla and it's definitely an advantage. On the other hand, Waymo has enormous resources and likely more experience in AI in general.

     

    'should be' isn't 'this is a fact' btw in case you do't know meanings of words. 


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Took that same ramp today, same glare but no water on the surface today. It went further but failed again eventually. It is a tricky ramp, even for humans, but this also shows how far we are. Level 4 is supposed to be quasi perfect.

    I see some very hard issues to solve though. First these systems need to see much further than they currently do. A human see a car from far and anticipates. Software from live feed can handle that, eventually. Second the system needs to handle bad markings. Right now just after winter, the roads are in terrible shape. So far the system is only as good as the marking are on the road. Then it needs to handle bad weather conditions. Snow, heavy rain... whole other ballgame. Third it need to be much smarter when merging into another road or highway. For example it took another ramp perfectly but then once on the right most lane, I needed to move to another lane left because the lane I was on was an exit only one. The car tried to move but there was too much traffic and no gap. Once the exit was imminent, it just gave up and failed. What a human would do is force cars on the left to open up a gap by moving more agressive the to the left with blinkers and eye contact. A computer cannot do that. If there is still no gap, the car needs to pass the exit and stop on the side of the road until it is clear. Don;t get me wrong, even some bad drivers would fail in this case. But again, automating that seems impossible today. And these are highways, can you imagine the complexity on normal roads?

    A couple of time I came fast onto some cars stopped at a red light. I intervened when I felt was quite late to brake and the system had not reacted yet. It was a hard braking, I can only imagine how hard it would be if the system kicked in, if it would have at all. My bag and coat flew out from the seat already. A passenger would have been extremely uncomfortable.

    What the system is good at now is fast reaction to a proximity event, maybe even faster than a human if there was no way to anticipate. But a system will have to be taught to recognize stopped object at a far distance to be able to stop without slamming the brakes.

    Unless Musk knows something we don’t, a full driving system within a year seems impossible.

    That said, the system is by far the most sophisticated system sold today. It can change lanes quite safely, probably more safely than a human does. And it does not aggress you like drivers do in my region, there is not a day where if I were not to slow down, a car would literally ram into me just to create a gap, or they maneuver inches away from you at high speed.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla result were horrible. They simply have to keep selling cars in numbers to be sustainable. The model 3 stagnation can be explained by some transit delays. But the S/X issue needed to be addressed aggressively. They are trying, these cars are now significantly cheaper and with better specs than 2 months ago. Of note, they have 20% average margin on each car they sell. That is pretty positive because they probably still have some production costs to shave. They just need to sell more cars. Also they have the Y on the horizon, these sales are going to be huge, they just need to survive until then. Then they also have a battery upgrade for the S/X and an interior update to keep the models fresh.

    Another positive is that they are still keeping way ahead of the competition in terms of efficiency and tech. There is nothing coming out in the next 3 years that is even close to offer a better EV package unless you really don’t care about range (very personal opinion). There will be better offering if you prioritize sportiness and luxury, but all these are gen1.0 packages vs gen2.1, and they will cost more.

    Also no one today can buy the coolness they radiate today. People just love their cars and I have gotten a lot of very positive feedback. People are in awe, especially with the X. And in my color combo, the car just oozes luxury. It’s doesn’t even need a better interior. And you should see people’s faces when they get left in the dust by a big 7 seater, mine is not even the Performance one.

    Tesla will survive, the only real question is how much capital will they need?

    PS: there is a strong rumor Tesla is going to build a Gigafactory in Europe, maybe in Germany even. They said they want one in each of the big three continent.


     
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