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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    I can't help but draw parallels with my experience of tech engineers & Tesla's conundrums. I've seen so many false dawns & powerpoint strategies dissolve when the next bright shiny thing comes along. (AWS is a case in point) The very few real deliverables I've witnessed over the last 30 years in IT were driven by truly inspirational leaders - Elon quite clearly is also one of these so I expect he'll get beyond MVP but then the true monitisation will be some other entity IMHO.


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    991 Carrera Black Edition, XC90 Black\Black - 2 kids, 1 dog


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Tesla should just increase the price of the Model 3 and see how many orders remain. I would prefer them to sell 20,000 model 3s for profit than 100,000 for loss. A  new model 3 costs between $50,000 and $59,500, which is what they are selling so far and will be the only variant sold until 2019. Just add 10k to the base price and sell it. When these things become cheaper to build then discount the price as they did with the Model S before, indirectly by adding extra options for free. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    AP911:

    Tesla should just increase the price of the Model 3 and see how many orders remain. I would prefer them to sell 20,000 model 3s for profit than 100,000 for loss. A  new model 3 costs between $50,000 and $59,500, which is what they are selling so far and will be the only variant sold until 2019. Just add 10k to the base price and sell it. When these things become cheaper to build then discount the price as they did with the Model S before, indirectly by adding extra options for free. 

    In other words the Model 3 should be priced the same as the entry level Model S.  For a massive investment in CapEx, the investors see no return.  


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Yes. Similar to how a fully loaded 3 series would cost you more than an entry level 5 series.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Seems obvious to me the costs are fixed since they invested and planned for large volume. Imagine what would happen to profit of the Ford F150 if they started selling 10% of their planned capacity. The costs of running a car and battery factory at 10% of planned capacity is significant.

    Now I have no idea how profitable Tesla will ultimately be, but I have no doubt in my mind that fixed costs at this level of production have destroyed gross margins.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Tesla stock is tanking...


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Here's one opinion from Bloomberg...

    "Tesla Put a Car in Space But How About in Showrooms?" (Bloomberg)

    If it can't ramp up Model 3 production soon, it's going to need to raise more cash.

    (7 February 2018)

    Let's be clear about one thing: That SpaceX rocket launch on Tuesday was incredible. Putting a Tesla Roadster into orbit atop it was a stroke of marketing genius; imagine the slogan "A bazillion miles without a charge!"

    Let's also be clear about another thing: This has nothing to do with Tesla's performance as a company (even if the stock market sometimes implies otherwise.) On that front, 100,000 Model 3s idling on lots near Fremont, California, would be worth far more than one electric sportscar headed for the asteroid belt.

    Alas, no such luck. A day after deserved jubilation in Cape Canaveral, it was back to the relatively mundane task of reporting Tesla's quarterly results. The big question was whether Tesla would shift its production target for the Model 3 back (again). It didn't, thankfully. However, as is often the case with this company, there are caveats:

    "It is important to note that while these are the levels we are focused on hitting and we have plans in place to achieve them, our prior experience on the Model 3 ramp has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time."

    In other words, Tesla's ambitions for the Model 3 remain intact, but please bear in mind that such ambitions have proved, on prior occasions, somewhat overambitious. There was no update on the current production rate, despite repeated questions on Wednesday evening's call, which is troubling.

    Recall that, a month ago, Tesla claimed it had hit a pace that "extrapolates" to more than 1,000 vehicles per week. Whatever that meant exactly, it doesn't appear to have been sustained, at least according to sales estimates by InsideEVs: They put January Model 3 deliveries at a little less than 1,900 overall.

    Getting the Model 3 production line fixed is critical if 2018 is to be, as Tesla puts it with typical restraint, "a transformative year." All that installed capital producing a trickle of vehicles trashes Tesla's gross profit margin. The 18.9 percent headline margin for the automotive business was weak. Yet even that owed a lot to Tesla selling the largest slug of zero-emission vehicle credits for any quarter ever.

    ZEVed Up

    Selling zero-emission vehicle credits masked a very weak underlying gross profit margin in Tesla's core automotive business in the fourth quarter

    1518116065460image.jpeg

    Source: Tesla, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Gadfly analysis

    Note: "ZEV effect" is the estimated uplift to Tesla's automotive gross profit margin from selling zero-emission vehicle credits, assuming a 95 percent margin.

    Tesla is struggling with what every Silicon Valley company taking its moonshot must ultimately do: scale. It expects to sell 100,000 Model S and X vehicles this year, meaning zero growth on that front. And even as Tesla boasts of growth on every other front, there's precious little to show for it in terms of operating leverage. For example, revenue jumped by 44 percent in the fourth quarter, year over year. Yet the company's gross profit increased by less than 1 percent, and its net loss more than tripled to its worst ever.

    What this ultimately comes back to is cash. On that front, Tesla actually came in much better than forecasts, with negative free cash flow just $277 million against a consensus figure of $901 million. But again: caveats, folks.

    First of all, definitions: Tesla doesn't count spending on solar energy systems to be leased as capital expenditure. This is understandable up to a point, but they eat up significantly more than $100 million per quarter and should be counted somewhere (inventory?). Second, Tesla counts customer deposits as operating cash flow, even though these are refundable and, in essence, zero-interest short-term loans.

    Still, let's assume the deposits are money in the bank. They jumped by $168 million in the quarter, which is a good thing and reflects, at least in part, the addition of deposits for Tesla's new semi and updated Roadster.

    Another big factor was negative working capital, contributing almost $500 million. More than 40 percent of that reflected running down inventories -- as Tesla slowed production across the board in the quarter -- and roughly another 20 percent was due to a drop in accounts receivable.

    Capex came in well below the consensus forecast, at $787 million (not counting solar-energy equipment) rather than the $1 billion expected. Yet, as Tesla pointed out, that reflected some Model 3-related capex being deferred.

    This is all somewhat reminiscent of the third quarter of 2016, when a big favorable swing in working capital, relatively low capex, and a jump in sales of emissions credits helped Tesla "throw a pie in the face of all naysayers on Wall Street," to use CEO Elon Musk's phrase. As then, most of these factors aren't repeatable.

    And Tesla now expects capex in 2018 to exceed last year's level of $3.4 billion, which happens to equal the amount of cash Tesla has in the bank. This, more than anything, is why Tesla must hit its stride on the Model 3. Otherwise, raising more capital could be unavoidable in the second half of the year.

    On that front, Tesla has shown a talent for tapping different sources, such as last summer's high-yield bond issue. But this also comes at a cost:

     Rocket Fuel

     Tesla's net debt doubled in 2017

    1518115943303image.jpeg

     Source: Bloomberg, Tesla

    The company's interest expense more than doubled, year over year, in the quarter and equates, remarkably, to a third of gross profit. Tesla had best reach escape velocity soon.

    Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-07/tesla-earnings-putting-cars-in-space-but-not-showrooms


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    My neighbor's delivery date for his Model 3 has now been pushed out a year past his original date.  Initially it was early 2018, then mid 2018, and now he just got an email it's early 2019.  Being a former r&d engineer he understands delays can occur with new products, but is now less than pleased.  I was looking forward to him getting one.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    The thing is.  They have sales. A huge backlog of sales. The market likes that a lot. If they had produced all those cars on time without buyers it would be a much bigger problem. Making more cars faster is a solvable problem. Sales is not if you don’t have them. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lexs4:

    My neighbor's delivery date for his Model 3 has now been pushed out a year past his original date.  Initially it was early 2018, then mid 2018, and now he just got an email it's early 2019.  Being a former r&d engineer he understands delays can occur with new products, but is now less than pleased.  I was looking forward to him getting one.

    Just checked mine, got delayed as well from end of 2018 to early 2019. I do expect more delays so my only wish is to find an alternative in 2019. This means the I would probably be able to get the Jaguar I pace and probably the Mission E before the Model 3. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Leawood911:

    The thing is.  They have sales. A huge backlog of sales. The market likes that a lot. If they had produced all those cars on time without buyers it would be a much bigger problem. Making more cars faster is a solvable problem. Sales is not if you don’t have them. 

    The market does not like the recent news at all - minus 7% in one day Smiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    AP911:
    lexs4:

    My neighbor's delivery date for his Model 3 has now been pushed out a year past his original date.  Initially it was early 2018, then mid 2018, and now he just got an email it's early 2019.  Being a former r&d engineer he understands delays can occur with new products, but is now less than pleased.  I was looking forward to him getting one.

    Just checked mine, got delayed as well from end of 2018 to early 2019. I do expect more delays so my only wish is to find an alternative in 2019. This means the I would probably be able to get the Jaguar I pace and probably the Mission E before the Model 3. 

    I have been joking with my neighbor for some time that I'll have a Misson E before his Model 3 shows up.   I plan on replacing my Macan with a Mission E or Macan ELV depending on when it comes. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    The second half of 2018 is the start of production for the Jag I pace. Hopefully it stays as close to the concept as possible. Should have a battery capacity that exceeds 500km. It will make a great daily driver. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    MKSGR:
    Leawood911:

    The thing is.  They have sales. A huge backlog of sales. The market likes that a lot. If they had produced all those cars on time without buyers it would be a much bigger problem. Making more cars faster is a solvable problem. Sales is not if you don’t have them. 

    The market does not like the recent news at all - minus 7% in one day Smiley

    Porsche hasn't t done so much better today , - saw a -4 % at some stage during the afternoon 


    --

     964 Carrera 4 --  997.2 C2S , -20mm --  991 GT3 RS 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    The Jag is not very good, my friend did not like it and ended up with an Alfa...


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:

    The Jag is not very good, my friend did not like it and ended up with an Alfa...

    That's amazing, considering that the Jaguar EV has yet to debut, let alone go on sale.  Your friend must have some serious ties to Tata.  


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Gnil:
    MKSGR:
    Leawood911:

    The thing is.  They have sales. A huge backlog of sales. The market likes that a lot. If they had produced all those cars on time without buyers it would be a much bigger problem. Making more cars faster is a solvable problem. Sales is not if you don’t have them. 

    The market does not like the recent news at all - minus 7% in one day Smiley

    Porsche hasn't t done so much better today , - saw a -4 % at some stage during the afternoon 

    It is a marathon and not a race. Current market valuation would tend to support the idea that the market likes Tesla regardless of the drop today.  But I get your point. On the other hand Ford and GM produce loads of cars. Does the market love them as much as Tesla?


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Doubt the Jag will look like that inside in production form. Nice concept, but they never end up like the concepts.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    MKSGR:

    Tesla stock is tanking...

     

    Well not just them but everything else too.


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    AP911:
    lexs4:

    My neighbor's delivery date for his Model 3 has now been pushed out a year past his original date.  Initially it was early 2018, then mid 2018, and now he just got an email it's early 2019.  Being a former r&d engineer he understands delays can occur with new products, but is now less than pleased.  I was looking forward to him getting one.

    Just checked mine, got delayed as well from end of 2018 to early 2019. I do expect more delays so my only wish is to find an alternative in 2019. This means the I would probably be able to get the Jaguar I pace and probably the Mission E before the Model 3. 

     

    Yeah but when you took delivery of the Mission E you won't be trading it in for the Model 3.

    However for all intents and purposes, unless you already have a Mission E deposit from at least a year ago, you won't be able to get one when it launches. So the Model 3 still have time to catch up on delivery. But that's also not likely, I expect Tesla to inform you that you car won't appear till end of 2019. 


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Whoopsy:
    MKSGR:

    Tesla stock is tanking...

     

    Well not just them but everything else too.

    But not by 9% Smiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Actually, this makes more sense for Tesla...and holds in my opinion a bigger future for them.

    https://electrek.co/2018/02/08/tesla-semi-electric-semi-truck-production/


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    CGX car nut:
    SciFrog:

    The Jag is not very good, my friend did not like it and ended up with an Alfa...

    That's amazing, considering that the Jaguar EV has yet to debut, let alone go on sale.  Your friend must have some serious ties to Tata.  

    They did not like the car overall, not just the engine...


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:
    CGX car nut:
    SciFrog:

    The Jag is not very good, my friend did not like it and ended up with an Alfa...

    That's amazing, considering that the Jaguar EV has yet to debut, let alone go on sale.  Your friend must have some serious ties to Tata.  

    They did not like the car overall, not just the engine...

    I think you misunderstood my post. The car has no engine maybe that's why they didn't like it. Smiley

    Kidding aside, we were speaking about the I-Pace, its their upcoming electric car, not the F-Pace which is not a bad car actually. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Oops my bad angrysmiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    The Grand Tour Model X Review in the latest episode. Quite entertaining and they're very impressed...

    And they dragrace the famous Audi R8 V10 indecision

    https://youtu.be/O8ojCe71T-A


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    indecision


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:

    The Grand Tour Model X Review in the latest episode. Quite entertaining and they're very impressed...

    And they dragrace the famous Audi R8 V10 indecision

    https://youtu.be/O8ojCe71T-A

    He will come after you,just saying....indecision


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

     

    If a Model X can do this, perhaps people can take it seriously as a SUV, if not it is just a minivan.

    Most modern proper SUV can do this no problem, be it G-lass, ML, Cayenne, and perhaps even the X5. Every Jeep that has the Trail Rated badge can also go up slope and stairs like that.


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Used safety lines. Check out some rock crawlers from the US. That is where the real attachments are required. 


     
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