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    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:Just as I predicted.


    You predicted massive sales loss.


    Quote:
    Porsche Starts New Fiscal Year with 7 Percent Increase


    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    CARRERA GT sales doubled, they are sky-rocketing!

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    "For
    the first time this summer, we had inventory levels that allowed our dealers
    to meet their customers' demands for our Porsche 911 range."

    Translated in Nick's anti-Porsche jargon means flooding the dealers... "just as he predicted"

    You should short the stock...saw quite a couple of hedge funds that burned their fingers on that

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales


    Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".

    Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.

    For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.

    The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.

    So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    EricAlain said:

    Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".

    Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.

    For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.

    The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.

    So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.



    Looks like someone has their inventory turnover ratios intact!

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Brunner I predicted the following:

    1. The 997 sales will not come close to the 996 sales.

    2. Porsche recognizing the marketing error in over producing cars would initially restrict the supplies of the 997's.

    3. Once they fooled their customer base in to thinking that their marketing stategy had changed (keeping inventory low) they will revert back to over producing.

    Please reread the paragraph that Porsche published prior to announcing their sales for August. Clearly they initially restricted supplies and now they are shipping boatloads of cars thereby filling dealer lots. I could not have been more on the money.

    Additionally, consider this; the 997 reviews particularly the S have been spectacular. However, the sales have not been. The are tepid at best and those that have wanted one have either ordered one or taken delivery. Therefore, those 997's filling the dealer lots will be discounted probably heavily.

    Porsche is the GM, Ford and Chrysler of sport cars.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Brunner I predicted the following:

    1. The 997 sales will not come close to the 996 sales.

    2. Porsche recognizing the marketing error in over producing cars would initially restrict the supplies of the 997's.

    3. Once they fooled their customer base in to thinking that their marketing stategy had changed (keeping inventory low) they will revert back to over producing.

    Please reread the paragraph that Porsche published prior to announcing their sales for August. Clearly they initially restricted supplies and now they are shipping boatloads of cars thereby filling dealer lots. I could not have been more on the money.

    Additionally, consider this; the 997 reviews particularly the S have been spectacular. However, the sales have not been. The are tepid at best and those that have wanted one have either ordered one or taken delivery. Therefore, those 997's filling the dealer lots will be discounted probably heavily.

    Porsche is the GM, Ford and Chrysler of sport cars.



    Without a doubt, Porsche produces a lot more cars than most others in their price class. I've got no argument for you there Nick.

    I do have a bone to pick with your 2nd prediction, that Porsche initially restricted supplies of the 997 in order to somehow convince people that they were going to make it a rarer car. It seems more likely that Porsche's initial 997 production numbers were very low simply because it takes time to ramp up production of any new product. It doesn't matter whether you're talking about microprocessors or 997s, initially your shipments are always going to be low as you transition your supply lines to producing the new product. I'd say that's more than likely the reason for slow initial 997 supplies.

    It's the same reason options on the first 997s are very limited, it's not because Porsche wants owners to believe that their bare 997s are somehow exclusive and that they shouldn't want all of the customization options, it's just a simple issue of ramping up production.

    And I guess my take on "prediction" #2 also applies to #3 as well.

    I do think that, by the time the 997 production run is over, it will have sold just as well, if not better, than the 996.

    And while I'd agree that Porsche has brought mass manufacturing to higher end sports cars, at least their cars don't suck like some of the other companies you compared them to

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    EricAlain said:

    Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".

    Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.

    For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.

    The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.

    So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.



    EricAlain,

    I enjoy reading your posts, because - presumably due to your profession - you have access to relevant facts and figures relating to the auto market and the ability and inclination to analyse them objectively.

    Unlike Nick, who rarely quotes facts and figures, and when he does puts his own peculiar spin on them to try to twist them to fit his obsessive agenda.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    fritz said:
    Quote:
    EricAlain said:

    Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".

    Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.

    For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.

    The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.

    So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.



    EricAlain,

    I enjoy reading your posts, because - presumably due to your profession - you have access to relevant facts and figures relating to the auto market and the ability and inclination to analyse them objectively.

    Unlike Nick, who rarely quotes facts and figures, and when he does puts his own peculiar spin on them to try to twist them to fit his obsessive agenda.



    Me obbessive? I am going to hold my breath until you take it back!

    EricAlain I assuming is using norms for car manufacturers like Ford GM and Chyrsler. It only proves my point. The is a huge disconnect between what is happening in the US and Europe when it involves Porsche sales.

    Raz, what I predicted you can take to the bank! Porsche will introduce the TT sooner because of falling sales regarding the 997, 987 and Cayenne lines. I really feel for those that own a S or ordered an S with the power kit. In a very short time, the TT will trump them and the value of these other models will get hammered.

    Hey but look on the bright side, Porsche will continue to make a lot of money.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Quote:
    fritz said:
    Quote:
    EricAlain said:

    Dealers inventories were extremely low for the 997 up until the end of June (the last official number I have). Carrera 47, Carrera S 22, Carrera Cab 41, Carrera S Cab 31 .... that is around 10 days of sale .... I would not call that "flooded".

    Concerning the 996, at end of June, they had only 69 units sitting on dealers parking lot. I believe, at the end of August there is none left.

    For the Boxster inventories represented around 62 days of sales and for the Cayenne around 49.

    The "norm" in the industry is between 70 and 80 days.

    So I think dealers aren't really flooded with vehicles.



    EricAlain,

    I enjoy reading your posts, because - presumably due to your profession - you have access to relevant facts and figures relating to the auto market and the ability and inclination to analyse them objectively.

    Unlike Nick, who rarely quotes facts and figures, and when he does puts his own peculiar spin on them to try to twist them to fit his obsessive agenda.



    Me obbessive? I am going to hold my breath until you take it back!

    EricAlain I assuming is using norms for car manufacturers like Ford GM and Chyrsler. It only proves my point. The is a huge disconnect between what is happening in the US and Europe when it involves Porsche sales.

    Raz, what I predicted you can take to the bank! Porsche will introduce the TT sooner because of falling sales regarding the 997, 987 and Cayenne lines. I really feel for those that own a S or ordered an S with the power kit. In a very short time, the TT will trump them and the value of these other models will get hammered.

    Hey but look on the bright side, Porsche will continue to make a lot of money.



    Nick, what's your best advice for the guys who like new 575s or 612s and are willing&able to eat the likely, immediate $60Kish deprec?
    Should guys not get CCM/sport seats/cf engine bay trim, etc on 430s to avoid destabilizing the carefully calculated 430 investment/resale value algorithm?
    Is F raping these misguided individuals?

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:

    Raz, what I predicted you can take to the bank! Porsche will introduce the TT sooner because of falling sales regarding the 997, 987 and Cayenne lines. I really feel for those that own a S or ordered an S with the power kit. In a very short time, the TT will trump them and the value of these other models will get hammered.

    Hey but look on the bright side, Porsche will continue to make a lot of money.



    Can you define sooner though? All information I've heard points to a 2006 launch of the 997TT, although it may be shown off earlier. Launching the 997TT sooner would mean that it'd be out this year, is this what you're predicting?

    Porsche will make a lot of money, but that's because they can. If you can show me a good alternative in this price class that offers everything Porsche does, I'm sure I can drum up about 20,000 customers a year for this competing product. The closest anyone has gotten, in my opinion, is Audi/Lamborghini with the Gallardo. And even then, the price differential was still huge.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    Raz (NC) said:
    Quote:
    nberry said:

    Raz, what I predicted you can take to the bank! Porsche will introduce the TT sooner because of falling sales regarding the 997, 987 and Cayenne lines. I really feel for those that own a S or ordered an S with the power kit. In a very short time, the TT will trump them and the value of these other models will get hammered.

    Hey but look on the bright side, Porsche will continue to make a lot of money.



    Can you define sooner though? All information I've heard points to a 2006 launch of the 997TT, although it may be shown off earlier. Launching the 997TT sooner would mean that it'd be out this year, is this what you're predicting?

    Porsche will make a lot of money, but that's because they can. If you can show me a good alternative in this price class that offers everything Porsche does, I'm sure I can drum up about 20,000 customers a year for this competing product. The closest anyone has gotten, in my opinion, is Audi/Lamborghini with the Gallardo. And even then, the price differential was still huge.



    Raz, well it will be hard to prove either way if it is early since they have not announced when it would be introduced. My comment is it will be early rather than later. They may start taking orders this fall for early 2006 delivery.

    Regarding other cars in that price range, look at the C6, Z06, AMV8, MB, Viper and so on. In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.



    Nick,

    Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?

    It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    W8MM said:
    Nick,

    Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?

    It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?



    Sounds reasonable enough to me.

    Anybody have directly comparable leasing rates for, say a P996TT and F430?

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    fritz said:
    Quote:
    W8MM said:
    Nick,

    Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?

    It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?



    Sounds reasonable enough to me.

    Anybody have directly comparable leasing rates for, say a P996TT and F430?



    Prob is that sample set of guys who will do 12K+mi/yr (relevant 996TTS mileage comparo) in their 430 is prob <20 guys/yr in US...and I suspect 90%+ of those guys just whip out a checkbook to pay for the trivial 430....it is F's entry-lvl car after all....

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    W8MM said:
    Quote:
    nberry said:
    In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.



    Nick,

    Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?

    It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?



    Yes but often not accurately. It all depends on the leasing company and interest rates. For an example, Porsche leasing is giving a residual of I believe 40% on the CGT after 5 years. Other leasing companies may go higher some lower.

    Also, many leases on the 360 Spider after 5 years were close to 50-60% residual but still being sold close to MSRP after that time period.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:

    Raz, well it will be hard to prove either way if it is early since they have not announced when it would be introduced. My comment is it will be early rather than later. They may start taking orders this fall for early 2006 delivery.

    Regarding other cars in that price range, look at the C6, Z06, AMV8, MB, Viper and so on. In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.



    The problem I have with your comment is that it is one of those non-specific predictions. That's like me saying that BMW will release the M3 sooner rather than later, but then not defining when that is. Then, regardless of when they actually launch it, my prediction is correct. It's a win-win situation for me

    As for other cars in that price range, it really depends on what you're looking for, and I would argue that the Viper enthusiast would never consider a MB or AMV8. When I ask for a good alternative in a price class, it can't just meet the criteria of being close to the same price.

    The Gallardo offers much of the same package as the 996TT, in terms of road feel, handling, impressive power, daily drivability, etc... The only other thing to come close appears to be the C6 Z06, but according to most reviews you sacrifice a bit of driving feel for the significantly lower cost of entry. For me, that's one area where you cannot sacrifice; frankly I'd give up horsepower for driving feel any day, which is why I often prefer lower powered, yet better balanced cars to their higher powered alternatives. It is the driving feel that makes people prefer the BMW 3 series to its more powerful, and cheaper, competitors. And it is the same thing that makes people choose Boxsters and 911s over their competitors.

    It is a tradeoff, the cost of these feelings isn't cheap. For some, the tradeoff is worth it, for others it is not. Many make the same sacrifices to own a Ferrari. When I went shopping for my 360 I drove it back to back with a 996TT, I knew the latter was faster but the overall feel of the 360 was worth more to me. I wasn't on the magical 360 list when I got that car, but to me it was worth it.

    The 360 held it's value better than the 996TT has, but the 360 wasn't nearly as versatile as the 996TT has been to me. That isn't to say that either one is inherently the better car, they are just different.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    Quote:
    W8MM said:
    Quote:
    nberry said:
    In computing price, do not ignore the substantial depreciation a Porsche will incur.



    Nick,

    Would you agree that comparing leasing prices when comparing vehicles is a better indicator?

    It seems likely that anticipated depreciation would be built in to the lease price. No?



    Yes but often not accurately. It all depends on the leasing company and interest rates. For an example, Porsche leasing is giving a residual of I believe 40% on the CGT after 5 years. Other leasing companies may go higher some lower. My opinion is it probably will be worth more than 50% after five years.

    Also, many leases on the 360 Spider after 5 years were close to 50-60% residual but still being sold close to MSRP after that time period.



    What prob answers question better is...what is a 2 yo 360 w/24K mis worth vs 2 yo 996TT w/24K mi as % of MSRP...and also importantly in absolute terms (after all, 360 was roughly $60K more expensive than 996TT)...I suspect F's resale value edge vs P disappears quickly once mileage approaches/hits these daily commuter lvls....but no one appears to have any hard datapoints to support/refute this speculation....

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    VKSF said:
    What prob answers question better is...what is a 2 yo 360 w/24K mis worth vs 2 yo 996TT w/24K mi as % of MSRP...and also importantly in absolute terms (after all, 360 was roughly $60K more expensive than 996TT)...I suspect F's resale value edge vs P disappears quickly once mileage approaches/hits these daily commuter lvls....but no one appears to have any hard datapoints to support/refute this speculation....



    You have to remember to factor in the cost of a new clutch for the 360 at about 20000 mls, which may be one of the reasons drivers shy away from putting that much mileage on a 360.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    The 360 coupe initally sold for $140,000 and only recently raised to $160,00. The 996TT bare bones was $120,000. When the started to over produced them many could be had for under $90,000 within a year of production.

    The 997TT will probably begin around $130,000 if not higher.

    Raz, you place a great deal of emphasis on "feel" which I agree with. But that only supports the purchase of competitor cars spending on the buyers particular "feel" need. Some love gobs of torque others want nimbleness and others want something else.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    nberry said:
    The 360 coupe initally sold for $140,000 and only recently raised to $160,00. The 996TT bare bones was $120,000. When the started to over produced them many could be had for under $90,000 within a year of production.

    The 997TT will probably begin around $130,000 if not higher.

    Raz, you place a great deal of emphasis on "feel" which I agree with. But that only supports the purchase of competitor cars spending on the buyers particular "feel" need. Some love gobs of torque others want nimbleness and others want something else.



    Well what I'm arguing is that the feel of the 911 and Boxster cannot, currently, be beat by anything in or around its price class. And when I refer to feel, I am not talking about easily quantifiable items like torque, it is something a bit harder to describe. It is, for example, the difference between a Boxster and a 350Z. One has a lot more power, while the other has a far superior feel to it.

    Once again, I do agree that Porsche's mass production mentality has made it very dangerous to own a brand new Porsche. But, it also means that I can get any car, at any time, at virtually any price I want (discount off of new, or much less for used). And given that I am a fan of the feel of modern day Porsches, I am ok with this scenario.

    Obviously, as you know, I am a fan of Ferrari as well. I played the dealer games with the 360 and now I await my F430, at MSRP, late next year. While I do appreciate that the F430 will hold its value better than any Porsche, by no means do I want Porsche to start acting like Ferrari. In fact, I would be far happier if Ferrari started acting like Porsche in this sense. If I could get any Ferrari, at any time, at realistic prices, I would be far happier. Sure, resale values wouldn't be as good, but I know I don't buy these things for resale value, I buy them to drive. And in my opinion, I'm all for anything that lets more people drive these things and truly enjoy them.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    I completely agree with you, Raz.

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Yes!

    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    Raz (NC) said:
    Quote:
    nberry said:
    The 360 coupe initally sold for $140,000 and only recently raised to $160,00. The 996TT bare bones was $120,000. When the started to over produced them many could be had for under $90,000 within a year of production.

    The 997TT will probably begin around $130,000 if not higher.

    Raz, you place a great deal of emphasis on "feel" which I agree with. But that only supports the purchase of competitor cars spending on the buyers particular "feel" need. Some love gobs of torque others want nimbleness and others want something else.



    Well what I'm arguing is that the feel of the 911 and Boxster cannot, currently, be beat by anything in or around its price class. And when I refer to feel, I am not talking about easily quantifiable items like torque, it is something a bit harder to describe. It is, for example, the difference between a Boxster and a 350Z. One has a lot more power, while the other has a far superior feel to it.

    Once again, I do agree that Porsche's mass production mentality has made it very dangerous to own a brand new Porsche. But, it also means that I can get any car, at any time, at virtually any price I want (discount off of new, or much less for used). And given that I am a fan of the feel of modern day Porsches, I am ok with this scenario.

    Obviously, as you know, I am a fan of Ferrari as well. I played the dealer games with the 360 and now I await my F430, at MSRP, late next year. While I do appreciate that the F430 will hold its value better than any Porsche, by no means do I want Porsche to start acting like Ferrari. In fact, I would be far happier if Ferrari started acting like Porsche in this sense. If I could get any Ferrari, at any time, at realistic prices, I would be far happier. Sure, resale values wouldn't be as good, but I know I don't buy these things for resale value, I buy them to drive. And in my opinion, I'm all for anything that lets more people drive these things and truly enjoy them.




    Re: Not sure of this has been posted but here Porsche US sales

    Quote:
    Raz (NC) said:
    Obviously, as you know, I am a fan of Ferrari as well. I played the dealer games with the 360 and now I await my F430, at MSRP, late next year. While I do appreciate that the F430 will hold its value better than any Porsche, by no means do I want Porsche to start acting like Ferrari. In fact, I would be far happier if Ferrari started acting like Porsche in this sense. If I could get any Ferrari, at any time, at realistic prices, I would be far happier. Sure, resale values wouldn't be as good, but I know I don't buy these things for resale value, I buy them to drive. And in my opinion, I'm all for anything that lets more people drive these things and truly enjoy them.



    I think Ferrari will sooner have to review its current strategy of restricting the production to 4300 or something cars per year and for the following reason.

    Fiat Group short time objectives is to increase its gross margin which is still negative today. If I am not mistaken, the objective of Sergio Marchionne (CEO of Fiat Group who I know well) is to have a +4% gross margin at the end of 2006 and Ferrari will be asked to contribute to a better margin for the Fiat Group at large.

    The question is how Ferrari can contribute to this ambitious exercise ?

    On Ferrari's side, the costs of the F1 activity are still increasing (as an example, the development of the new V8 engine for the next F1 season will cost some additional 25 mio. Euros) and are not compensated by the sales of street cars since years now. The deficit was mainly financed through sponsors and a famous cigarette maker in particular, but the restrictive EU legislation in that area imposes Ferrari to find new source of revenues.

    Today, Ferrari has already find some new and lucrative sources of revenue. In particular, the merchandising activities have expanded and are now bringing a lot of money to the company. The problem is that this works until Ferrari is winning and Michael Schumacher wins and stays the star he is today.

    Ferrari has also created "derived products" to generate additional revenue flows. These derived products are from my point of view a sign that the company is currently changing its policy to limit the number of street cars produced. The current two examples of high added value derived products developed by Ferrari are the Maserati MC12 and the FXX. You (Nick and Stradale in particular...) will remember that in another post, I qualified the FXX of being a kind of swindle. This was certainly a bit provocative but I was in fact thinking to Enzo's customers ! Indeed, selling the FXX or the MC12 which are just another Enzo is not very fair towards those Enzo customers who were told that their car would be so exclusive that only 400 would be built.

    So for all that reasons, in a very near future, I think Ferrari will have to increase its production levels, probably develop entry level models or reduce prices, in order to make volume and increase its profitability. In other words, Ferrari will soon start acting like Porsche

     
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