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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    IMG_0639.PNG

    Almost 3 weeks old.

    Strictly city car, zero highway miles. No idea if those mileage is good or bad.

    As a city appliance, the Audi fits the job perfectly. Acceleration is perfectly acceptable, range is a non-issue. The most important bit is interior fit and finish as I spent the most time inside the car and it is superb. 

    The artificial noise at low speed is very handy to warn pedestrians, they can't hear a EV car coming but they can hear noise, and they look and check when they hear the low rumble noise. Great idea.

    Not sure how the Model X, can compete against the E-tron if one's car usage pattern is like me. All the Tesla advantage are neutered. Heck, even charging is more convenient in the Audi than the Tesla. Yes Tesla has their own supercharger stations, but around town in the city, practically 100% of the plugs are the standardized SAE J1172 plugs, not Tesla plugs and Teslas needed an adapter to use them, if one remembers to pack it in the car. 

    2 annoying things about the car.

    1. The touch screen is a complete failure. Still don't understand why car makers would put such a dangerous item inside moving cars. 

    2. The motor whine really gets to you, drives you insane. The car is super quiet inside and that highlights the whine, unlike in the 918 on E-mode where there are other noises to distract your mind. It basically sounded like a 80s car radio with a bad ground. Unlike in the 918 or any other hybrids, I can't turn on the motor to kill the whine. This is something EV car makers have to address. 

    Since we don't have a Audi section and the Tesla thread is near the top, I simply clicked that and post here instead of the Mission E thread. 

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    One of our employees has a e-tron (4 weeks old). I had the chance to test drive it (only in the city and as a shuttle to the airport).

    I have to agree to all the points you mentioned. As a big fan of silent cars (Music is better than engine noise) I really like the car, relaxed driving.

    Unfortunately it is no possible to install a charger in our garage, otherwise a EV would be the option for our second car.

    I don’t have good memories regarding my Tesla ride (only co-driver). The interior is terrible (I didn’t like the big screen, too much distraction), I felt like sitting in a cheap French or Japanese plastic car from the 80ies.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The low rumble noise is not '' just an idea '' . It is now mandatory on every  new EV car since July ( at least in Europe )

    The whining noise is horrible . I wonder what could be done to change that .....

    Why did you not get the virtual side mirror ?  I had a good look at them the other day , and I am not sure I would of taken the chance to order them . The replacement mirror screen is quite small compared to what you see in a real mirror . 

    An interesting thing here . All Tesla are serviced, and repaired at the Audi garage . When I went to drop my Q7 for service , there were about 15 Tesla's in the workshop and parking . 


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     964 Carrera 4 --  997.2 C2S , -20mm -- 991.2 GT3 RS 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The e-tron I drove has the virtual side mirrors. Maybe my drive was to short, but I didn’t like this feature. Creates distraction, you always have some sort of flicker at the edge of your view. A solution for a non-existing problem


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    The car is basically locked in, not much, nothing can change now a month away from it's showing, suppliers should be making and stock piling parts already. 

    Now every production has a ramp up time, but like every other normal car makers in the world, that's a easy step up, they should hit at least 2000 units by the 2nd month.

    They were targeting 20,000 units initially, I believe that number has been revised up to 30,000 already. Might even hit 40,000 units. They already did almost 40,000 units for Panamera for 2018.

    The Taycan factory is state of the art, more advanced than Leipzig, hitting high numbers is not a problem. Getting cars out of the tiny village of Zuffenhausen might be the problem I think. 

    I think the factory runs 280-290 days a year, so that's about 1000 cars a day, plus another 300 or so from the 911/718 side. 300% more cars needed to be transported. 

    1000 cars a day ~ a minute a car off the line per 2 8hr shifts a day. Not impossible for modern car productions. But I believe Porsche runs 100 seconds stations, that would means 3 shifts a day 24hrs continuously. 

    This is why one should wait to buy a Taycan. There will be quality and design issues. Also, a fair number of buyers will sell within the first year and good deals can be had.


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    Assume most people are stupid and hope they surprise you.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Gnil:

    The low rumble noise is not '' just an idea '' . It is now mandatory on every  new EV car since July ( at least in Europe )

    The whining noise is horrible . I wonder what could be done to change that .....

    Why did you not get the virtual side mirror ?  I had a good look at them the other day , and I am not sure I would of taken the chance to order them . The replacement mirror screen is quite small compared to what you see in a real mirror . 

    An interesting thing here . All Tesla are serviced, and repaired at the Audi garage . When I went to drop my Q7 for service , there were about 15 Tesla's in the workshop and parking . 

     

    I believe that's a European only option.

    US DoT deemed it illegal and hence Canada does't get it either.

    The whine will always be there. It's the 'sound' of a electric motor, their engine noise so to speak. I guess the only way possible to get rid of it is to pipe artificial engine noise to side the cabin to mask that whine. A golf cart, a electric drill, remote control cars, etc all have electric whine.


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    IMG_0648.JPG

    The battery is at 50%, well 51% to be exact. And estimated range left is 191km.

    Prorated, full tank range is 382km. that's 239miles. 

    It is officially rated at 204 miles or 329km per full tank.

    There is only 3 possible explanations.

    1. Audi lied again. Just like every single car manufacturer that makes conventional cars, they lie about the range at 1/2 tank. I have yet to drive a car that does the same distance on the first 1/2 of tank as the last 1/2 of the tank. Car makers do this on purpose, they know most of the car driving population refuel at 1/2 tank, and by making the first 1/2 tank bigger, like the top 1/2 tank is actually 2/3 of the capacity, it tricks consumers into thinking their car is more economical.

    2. My driving style, which includes putting the car in Sport/Dynamic mode for everything and not activate coasting regen and generally drive the car like any other normal car, with powerful enough stop light accelerations to keep up with flow of traffic, is better than the governments' testing on extending range. 

    3. Audi is being truthful and realistic about the range on the E-tron, what they rated and advertised is at least what the real world consumers will hit. unlike some other manufacturers that boast unrealistic claims. 

    On a side note, I was just told my Panamera Turbo S has just arrived at the dealer, gonna pay it a visit tomorrow.

    Oh yeah, don't mind the All Road setting. My son was playing with the air suspension settings to see the car go up and down.


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Most cars do have a bit of reserve capacity once the fuel gauge settles on empty and usually that reserve amount is greater than what the manufacturer states.  The e-tron has a significant buffer so it would be interesting to determine what capacity remains when the meter reaches 0%.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:

    Most cars do have a bit of reserve capacity once the fuel gauge settles on empty and usually that reserve amount is greater than what the manufacturer states.  The e-tron has a significant buffer so it would be interesting to determine what capacity remains when the meter reaches 0%.

     

     

    That's still not nearly enough to account for the mileage different. The bottom '1/2' literally on every single car is only 1/3.  My 918 is the closest to 1/2 is 1/2. It's a 70L tank and when I did fill it up at half tank it takes 40L.

    I don't refill my cars at 1/2. Whenever possible I always fill them up when the lights come on and some more, more than likely when I fill up my cars they will be showing reserve fuel or a few km left. 

    On my Turbo S, it's a 64L tank. and 10L is the reserve mark. Most of the time when I fill it up I add 55L-62L. Same deal with every other car I own. One time I did fill up the car around the 1/2 mark, travel distances dictates I have to, and I added almost 45L, conventionally wisdom dictates that should only be 32L when 1/2 empty.

    Surprised no one noticed that discrepancy for so long. Fuel gauge on every car made is a liar. It's my worst pet peeve, ahead of touch screens in cars.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Hmm, with my RR I have noticed when the tank shows less than 1/2 it reaches near empty much quicker. But I’m not sure a gas tank can be configured to measure only the bigger side. Nick, do you know this as a fact?


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    Assume most people are stupid and hope they surprise you.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    nberry:

    Hmm, with my RR I have noticed when the tank shows less than 1/2 it reaches near empty much quicker. But I’m not sure a gas tank can be configured to measure only the bigger side. Nick, do you know this as a fact?

     

    No car makers will admit they lied about the gas tank measurement Nick Smiley

    The level sensor is a simple resistor type thing, it output voltage to the ECU, and those readings can easily be manipulated. 

    But no, I don't know this as a fact, but I have had almost 70 cars over the years across almost 20 different manufacturers, not a single one act any different than what I had described and I think that's a pretty good sample size.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    Gnil:

    The low rumble noise is not '' just an idea '' . It is now mandatory on every  new EV car since July ( at least in Europe )

    The whining noise is horrible . I wonder what could be done to change that .....

    Why did you not get the virtual side mirror ?  I had a good look at them the other day , and I am not sure I would of taken the chance to order them . The replacement mirror screen is quite small compared to what you see in a real mirror . 

    An interesting thing here . All Tesla are serviced, and repaired at the Audi garage . When I went to drop my Q7 for service , there were about 15 Tesla's in the workshop and parking . 

     

    I believe that's a European only option.

    US DoT deemed it illegal and hence Canada does't get it either.

    The whine will always be there. It's the 'sound' of a electric motor, their engine noise so to speak. I guess the only way possible to get rid of it is to pipe artificial engine noise to side the cabin to mask that whine. A golf cart, a electric drill, remote control cars, etc all have electric whine.

     

    I would have thought an anti-noise device within the car would address the whine. It is presumably a predictable amplitude and frequency at any given speed.





    Re: Tesla Roadster

    That's the new Tesla Spark!


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    On the other hand, he hit a stationary object while traveling at 100kph and had only a broken leg, while the rear seat passengers had only bruises.  That seems like pretty good real world crash survivability.

    The Tesla hate here is strong, but ask yourself if the auto industry will be more like Tesla in 10 years or will Tesla be more like BMW or Honda (assuming, yes, it's still around).

    My hunch is that, in 20 years, electric and autonomous cars will have killed the high end German auto industry, which partially explains all today's Tesla schadenfreude on this site.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    waiting for PDK:

    On the other hand, he hit a stationary object while traveling at 100kph and had only a broken leg, while the rear seat passengers had only bruises.  That seems like pretty good real world crash survivability.

    No one ever dispute the occupant survivability in a Tesla. It's a modern car built to comply with modern crash standard and tested well in crash tests.

    The Tesla hate here is strong, but ask yourself if the auto industry will be more like Tesla in 10 years or will Tesla be more like BMW or Honda (assuming, yes, it's still around).

    The root of the 'hate' is the initial boasting from Tesla fanboys, that says OUR CAR IS THE BEST AND NOTHIG ELSE COMPARES. The cockiness is what caused the whole 'hatred'. Had the initial comments are more humble and sincere, I do't not think anyone I the world would have any problems with Tesla EVs coming onto the automobile market. When you swing a pendulum, however high one takes it on one side, it will swing just as hard on the other side. It's just nature.

    My hunch is that, in 20 years, electric and autonomous cars will have killed the high end German auto industry, which partially explains all today's Tesla schadenfreude on this site.

    The march towards electric is unstoppable, government subsidies will see to that. Ask yourself, had governments around the world do not cater to EVs in the beginning, will they be having the same success as it is now?

    Until the Taycan came along, Tesla were the 'high end' electric car. They were competing against Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf. The bar is set pretty low. But now that the high end Germans are coming onto the market with high end well made EVs, and I am just talking about the Audi e-Tron, that's cheaper than what a comparable Tesla is, we haven't even mention the Taycan yet, can Tesla pivot and compete? Or will they be stuck in no-man's land?

    Autonomous cars cannot work by itself, human drivers are too complex for the car to decode. It can only succeed IF every car on the road is autonomous and running the same program and on the same page. You as a driver with many years of experiences, say you see a car weaving through traffic coming up fast behind you, seeing some daylight, he then switch to the right lane preparing to sneak in front of you. Your experiences will tell you that and you would have backed off the throttle to leave some extra room in front to prepare for the incoming lane switch, an autonomous car will never figure that one out and continue like noting happens. What follows will be either that car crashed into your autonomous car, or the autonomous car do an emergency stop and throwing everything onto the floor. 

    Computers don't do random, they only do predictable stuff. Very different than what a human brain do. 


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Nick, good post.

    Tesla, will improve and survive. The reason? Because just as Porsche was, when one considers performance/value in the EV segment Tesla is the leader. As you have wisely stated, for now EV’s are city cars.


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    Assume most people are stupid and hope they surprise you.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    waiting for PDK:

    On the other hand, he hit a stationary object while traveling at 100kph and had only a broken leg, while the rear seat passengers had only bruises.  That seems like pretty good real world crash survivability.

    The Tesla hate here is strong, but ask yourself if the auto industry will be more like Tesla in 10 years or will Tesla be more like BMW or Honda (assuming, yes, it's still around).

    My hunch is that, in 20 years, electric and autonomous cars will have killed the high end German auto industry, which partially explains all today's Tesla schadenfreude on this site.

    On the other hand, every other vehicle that isn't as safe as the Tesla safely negotiated the obstacle in the roadway.  Active safety is just as important, and in this case of greater importance, than perceived passive safety.  

    Many commenters have stated that the Tesla Autopilot is more sophisticated in its lane-keeping abilities than that of other automakers.  That difference, on the part of the other automakers, is intentional to dissuade drivers from becoming too complacent and rely exclusively on the automated, inferior system.  By maintaining some driver input, the driver remains within the control loop; the same can't always be stated for the Tesla system which lolls the driver into a false sense of confidence.  

    Finally, other than the EVs being the primary prime mover source, most of the major automakers will remain intact a decade from now.  Tesla may remain an independent company but its growth is curtailed by the incumbents shifting to EVs and it will remain a niche market participant.  The Wall Street Journal in an article one posted yesterday on the Panamera Turbo S e-hybrid page, states that the incumbent automakers are investing $225 billion over the next few years in EV development.  There is no way Tesla can compete within this framework and its current strategy has proven it can't generate enough cash flow to fund current model reinvestment programs as it tries to invest in new product.  Daimler, for example, announced that its Freightliner division has entered the day heavy haul EV market with its first customer, Penske trucking, scheduled to take deliver soon.  Meanwhile, Tesla doesn't have the necessary cash flow to complete development of its truck.   


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    To make RT more balanced here is an interesting read from the other side of the fence. Even if you think, that this guy is an idiot, you'll see how much money is at stake.

    http://evtv.me/2019/08/the-tesla-conspiracy-or-am-i-a-dead-whistleblower/

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    schmoell:

    To make RT more balanced here is an interesting read from the other side of the fence. Even if you think, that this guy is an idiot, you'll see how much money is at stake.

    http://evtv.me/2019/08/the-tesla-conspiracy-or-am-i-a-dead-whistleblower/

     

    Never implied that there wasn't much money at stake.  His facile analysis parallels much of the thought patterns echoed by other EV acolytes and his pining hope on the Motor Trend car of the year title is weakened by Motor Trend's track record.  Many of the magazine's car of the year winners were relegated to automotive salvage yard of sales failures.  

    His analysis that Tesla can build a better EV for $40,000 than he can in his small garage either reeks of naiveté or hubris.  Economies of scale, for example, combined with the purchasing power of a large manufacturer shifts the economics away from the one-off producer.   


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    schmoell:

    To make RT more balanced here is an interesting read from the other side of the fence. Even if you think, that this guy is an idiot, you'll see how much money is at stake.

    http://evtv.me/2019/08/the-tesla-conspiracy-or-am-i-a-dead-whistleblower/

    Never implied that there wasn't much money at stake.  His facile analysis parallels much of the thought patterns echoed by other EV acolytes and his pining hope on the Motor Trend car of the year title is weakened by Motor Trend's track record.  Many of the magazine's car of the year winners were relegated to automotive salvage yard of sales failures.  

    His analysis that Tesla can build a better EV for $40,000 than he can in his small garage either reeks of naiveté or hubris.  Economies of scale, for example, combined with the purchasing power of a large manufacturer shifts the economics away from the one-off producer.   

    Here's a nice chart included in the article above...

    1565724044231image.png

    ...and here's another chart they forgot to include...

    Tesla Inc: Net Income / (Loss) in US$ billion (2010 to 2019 Q2)

    1565724065470image.jpeg

    ...so Tesla has an established track-record of significant net losses, regardless of production volumes!  Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Also recall that the most recent two quarters' of positive net income resulted primarily from the sale of zero emission credits.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    schmoell:

    To make RT more balanced here is an interesting read from the other side of the fence. Even if you think, that this guy is an idiot, you'll see how much money is at stake.

    http://evtv.me/2019/08/the-tesla-conspiracy-or-am-i-a-dead-whistleblower/

     

    I am sorry, but as I read it, that guy the wrote the article is a Tesla fanboy Smiley


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Boxster Coupe GTS:
    CGX car nut:
    schmoell:

    To make RT more balanced here is an interesting read from the other side of the fence. Even if you think, that this guy is an idiot, you'll see how much money is at stake.

    http://evtv.me/2019/08/the-tesla-conspiracy-or-am-i-a-dead-whistleblower/

    Never implied that there wasn't much money at stake.  His facile analysis parallels much of the thought patterns echoed by other EV acolytes and his pining hope on the Motor Trend car of the year title is weakened by Motor Trend's track record.  Many of the magazine's car of the year winners were relegated to automotive salvage yard of sales failures.  

    His analysis that Tesla can build a better EV for $40,000 than he can in his small garage either reeks of naiveté or hubris.  Economies of scale, for example, combined with the purchasing power of a large manufacturer shifts the economics away from the one-off producer.   

    Here's a nice chart included in the article above...

    1565724044231image.png

    ...and here's another chart they forgot to include...

    Tesla Inc: Net Income / (Loss) in US$ billion (2010 to 2019 Q2)

    1565724065470image.jpeg

    ...so Tesla has an established track-record of significant net losses, regardless of production volumes!  Smiley

     

    Tesla, forgot they are an automotive company, tried to position themselves as a IT company, and when that failed, Elon tried to pivot to a car hailing company like Uber or something to try and lift the valuation, we all knew they failed.

    As a IT or car hailing company, they are very far off for stock price valuation, As a car company, which they are and nothing more, they are far too expansive multiple wise. They are stuck in no man's land.

    To speak the truth, Tesla is a car company and nothing more, they might have SOME non-car stuff which is like their autopilot and shit, but consider everything that's on the table and published, Tesla should have a stock price of $80-$120, about 1/2 of what it is now. That's the real value of Tesla and a lot of people cam't stomach that big of a discount to their purchase price.

    And that's the biggest problem. No one really want to take a loss one Tesla's shares and keep propping it up hoping to get out of it without a loss. A and at such a elevated stock price, no one really want to get in either. And Elon had structured Tesla's finances to be based on the elected stock price, thus putting the whole company at risk. There won't be a happy ending. 


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I am extremely impressed by Audi and that new range rating system. It's definitely real world!!

    I hit 340km from 100%, and still got another 16% battery life left. I didn't even baby it to squeeze out extra range, no lift off regen either. Pretty much drive it normally like I do with any other of my cars. All city miles too.

    It's the first time ever in my life that I drove a car that would hit the rated fuel economy, and actually exceeded. And no cheating driving on highway.

    Audi and the EPA rated it to go 329km on a full charge, I just blew that away. 

    WOW!!

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-unsustainable-free-supercharging-121628106.html

     

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is in the headlines seemingly every week for one reason or another. The latest head-scratcher is the company’s decision to once again offer free unlimited supercharging for its Model S and Model X buyers.

    Tesla Stock: As Unsustainable as Its Free Supercharging

    More

    Source: Shutterstock

    This isn’t the first time free supercharging has been on offer, so maybe it shouldn’t raise eyebrows. However, reading between the lines of the decision is what’s so unsettling for investors of TSLA stock.

    Unsustainable Energy

    The first question investors must ask themselves is what is behind the decision to return to free supercharging for life. Tesla phased out free charging just last year. At the time, CEO Elon Musk explained the decision to disappointed customers on Twitter(NYSE:TWTR).

    “Really need to bring this program to an end while being as fair as possible. It’s not sustainable long-term,” Musk wrote.

    In other words, it’s too expensive for Tesla to power customers’ cars for life. One of Tesla’s biggest problems is how unprofitable the company is. Tesla stock tanked 10% following second-quarter earnings because the company reported a $408 million net loss. It was nearly three times the loss Wall Street analysts were anticipating on a per-share basis.

    Tesla has desperately been cutting costs and laying off employees in an effort to prove to the world it can be consistently profitable on a large scale. But its latest decision to return to its “unsustainable” free charging model confounds onlookers.

    Tesla Is Desperate for Demand

    The only logical explanation for the 180-degree turn on free charging is that Tesla is desperate to sell Model X and Model S vehicles. As bears have argued for months, the low-margin Model 3 is eating into demand for these more profitable models.

    Model S registrations were down 54% in California during Q2, according to Dominion Cross-Sell. Model X sales were down 40%. California is by far Tesla’s largest market, accounting for 40% of total Model S sales in 2018.

    At the same time, Model 3 registrations in that state doubled last quarter. On the surface, it’s good news for TSLA stock. However, if the low-margin Model 3 is simply cannibalizing sales of the higher-margin models, Tesla is just shooting itself in the foot.

    Assuming Tesla takes the offer of free lifetime supercharging away again at some point, it’s also pulling future sales forward. Along with the disappearing EV tax credits, free supercharging may be helping to create a future demand vacuum for Model S and Model X vehicles.

    TSLA Stock Running Out of Growth

    Stanphyl Capital hedge fund manager and Tesla stock bear Mark Spiegel says TSLA has become a growth stock that is running out of growth.

    “Demand for its existing models is only being maintained via continual price reductions, and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new models in a market soon to be saturated with enormous competition,” Spiegel says.

    To combat that deteriorating growth, investors should expect Musk to continue to pull out all the stops to beef up sales numbers any way he can. Musk will also likely continue to dismiss critics and make big promises to attempt to distract from Tesla’s poor performance. Musk will talk about autonomous vehicle technology, electric planes, and neural lace.

    Also, he will tell investors that Tesla will be profitable in Q3 and it will never again need to raise capital. He will predict a million Tesla robotaxis on the roads in 2020.

    When it comes to Musk’s track record of promises, Spiegel has some succinct advice for investors.

    “Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy,” he says.

    Tesla bulls can talk about how much of a genius Elon Musk is. They can talk about how great Tesla vehicles are until they’re blue in the face. But until something changes, TSLA stock needs sales growth and/or profitability to get any type of positive momentum going.

    However, a return to free charging for life suggests the current plan is to sacrifice profits for sales. That strategy didn’t seem to work out in Q2. I don’t expect it will work out well in Q3 either.

     

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    I am extremely impressed by Audi and that new range rating system. It's definitely real world!!

    I hit 340km from 100%, and still got another 16% battery life left. I didn't even baby it to squeeze out extra range, no lift off regen either. Pretty much drive it normally like I do with any other of my cars. All city miles too.

    It's the first time ever in my life that I drove a car that would hit the rated fuel economy, and actually exceeded. And no cheating driving on highway.

    Audi and the EPA rated it to go 329km on a full charge, I just blew that away. 

    WOW!!

     

    All EVs get above rated range driving slower and in city traffic which is the opposite to a combustion engine car. Lesser aerodynamic cars gets better range driving slow, but it quickly gets worse on the motorway even at moderate speeds at around 120km/h or there about you would not be able to reach the EPA-range.

    So your comment about "no cheating driving on the highway" would actually have the exact opposite effect... 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-unsustainable-free-supercharging-121628106.html

     

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is in the headlines seemingly every week for one reason or another. The latest head-scratcher is the company’s decision to once again offer free unlimited supercharging for its Model S and Model X buyers.

    Tesla Stock: As Unsustainable as Its Free Supercharging

    More

    Source: Shutterstock

    This isn’t the first time free supercharging has been on offer, so maybe it shouldn’t raise eyebrows. However, reading between the lines of the decision is what’s so unsettling for investors of TSLA stock.

    Unsustainable Energy

    The first question investors must ask themselves is what is behind the decision to return to free supercharging for life. Tesla phased out free charging just last year. At the time, CEO Elon Musk explained the decision to disappointed customers on Twitter(NYSE:TWTR).

    “Really need to bring this program to an end while being as fair as possible. It’s not sustainable long-term,” Musk wrote.

    In other words, it’s too expensive for Tesla to power customers’ cars for life. One of Tesla’s biggest problems is how unprofitable the company is. Tesla stock tanked 10% following second-quarter earnings because the company reported a $408 million net loss. It was nearly three times the loss Wall Street analysts were anticipating on a per-share basis.

    Tesla has desperately been cutting costs and laying off employees in an effort to prove to the world it can be consistently profitable on a large scale. But its latest decision to return to its “unsustainable” free charging model confounds onlookers.

    Tesla Is Desperate for Demand

    The only logical explanation for the 180-degree turn on free charging is that Tesla is desperate to sell Model X and Model S vehicles. As bears have argued for months, the low-margin Model 3 is eating into demand for these more profitable models.

    Model S registrations were down 54% in California during Q2, according to Dominion Cross-Sell. Model X sales were down 40%. California is by far Tesla’s largest market, accounting for 40% of total Model S sales in 2018.

    At the same time, Model 3 registrations in that state doubled last quarter. On the surface, it’s good news for TSLA stock. However, if the low-margin Model 3 is simply cannibalizing sales of the higher-margin models, Tesla is just shooting itself in the foot.

    Assuming Tesla takes the offer of free lifetime supercharging away again at some point, it’s also pulling future sales forward. Along with the disappearing EV tax credits, free supercharging may be helping to create a future demand vacuum for Model S and Model X vehicles.

    TSLA Stock Running Out of Growth

    Stanphyl Capital hedge fund manager and Tesla stock bear Mark Spiegel says TSLA has become a growth stock that is running out of growth.

    “Demand for its existing models is only being maintained via continual price reductions, and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new models in a market soon to be saturated with enormous competition,” Spiegel says.

    To combat that deteriorating growth, investors should expect Musk to continue to pull out all the stops to beef up sales numbers any way he can. Musk will also likely continue to dismiss critics and make big promises to attempt to distract from Tesla’s poor performance. Musk will talk about autonomous vehicle technology, electric planes, and neural lace.

    Also, he will tell investors that Tesla will be profitable in Q3 and it will never again need to raise capital. He will predict a million Tesla robotaxis on the roads in 2020.

    When it comes to Musk’s track record of promises, Spiegel has some succinct advice for investors.

    “Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy,” he says.

    Tesla bulls can talk about how much of a genius Elon Musk is. They can talk about how great Tesla vehicles are until they’re blue in the face. But until something changes, TSLA stock needs sales growth and/or profitability to get any type of positive momentum going.

    However, a return to free charging for life suggests the current plan is to sacrifice profits for sales. That strategy didn’t seem to work out in Q2. I don’t expect it will work out well in Q3 either.

     

     


    Of course the demand for S and X decrease over the years and they need to refresh it to boost sales. I mean, just look how bad the Panamera sold before the new generation got introduced for example. I wouldn't want to buy an Model S today either, it is expensive and needs a refresh exterior and interior which will come in due course. The free Supercharging incentive is of course a smart demand lever to pull to differentiate it from the Model 3 and gain a few extra sales.

    The other thing is that it doesn't matter how S/X sell short term. What matter for Tesla is Model 3 and the coming Model Y. So it is a bit laughable that analysts keep on focusing on the irrelevant stuff that doesn't matter long term. When Tesla introduce next gen S it will look very different, but right now they prioritize Model 3 and Y because they can't afford to do both.

    Also, all this talk about "coming competition" is far overrated, specifically in an exponential growing market and if you look into actual volumes and price points. If I was any of the traditional car manufacturers I would be more worried about decrease in sales of the inhouse competing ICE vehicles where all the profit margins come from... 


     
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