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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Good points.

    For an investor though you have to wonder how much upside is there left?

    Agree, I was more speaking of people who have been invested in Tesla for some time now.  For them, I would hope if they are serious investors and not blinded by fandom, they will think strongly about reducing their risk by taking increasing amounts off the table and crystallizing gains.  But as you know, many people have difficulty in selling any stock when they ought to... Smiley


    --

    2017 Range Rover Sport S/C,  2009 Porsche 911S


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    That’s why most people should not deal with individual stocks...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    That’s why most people should not deal with individual stocks...

    Smiley


    --

    2017 Range Rover Sport S/C,  2009 Porsche 911S


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    That’s why most people should not deal with individual stocks...

    On the contrary, this is the best you can do but you shouldn't invest in one stock only of course.

    2017 performance? 65%...no kidding. Never done that well. My bank guy said I am already a legend at his office because I have outperformed all of their customers. Smiley

    My motto? Keep it simple. I basically buy/sell the same stocks over and over again, with a few exceptions.

    2017-12-05_20-53-01.jpg

     

     


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    RC, SciFrog did say "most people" - not you.  And he was absolutely correct for "most people".  


    --

    2017 Range Rover Sport S/C,  2009 Porsche 911S


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SmileySmileyRC:
    SciFrog:

    That’s why most people should not deal with individual stocks...

    On the contrary, this is the best you can do but you shouldn't invest in one stock only of course.

    2017 performance? 65%...no kidding. Never done that well. My bank guy said I am already a legend at his office because I have outperformed all of their customers. Smiley

    My motto? Keep it simple. I basically buy/sell the same stocks over and over again, with a few exceptions.

    2017-12-05_20-53-01.jpg

     

     

    It is great that you enjoy it. However, logic and your bank account probably tells you that this is not the norm but the result of great luck in strong markets Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    MKSGR:
    SmileySmileyRC:
    SciFrog:

    That’s why most people should not deal with individual stocks...

    On the contrary, this is the best you can do but you shouldn't invest in one stock only of course.

    2017 performance? 65%...no kidding. Never done that well. My bank guy said I am already a legend at his office because I have outperformed all of their customers. Smiley

    My motto? Keep it simple. I basically buy/sell the same stocks over and over again, with a few exceptions.

    2017-12-05_20-53-01.jpg

     

     

    It is great that you enjoy it. However, logic and your bank account probably tells you that this is not the norm but the result of great luck in strong markets Smiley

    Believe it or not, i tell that to myself every day but my bank guy says it is impossible to have luck for 17 consecutive years. I don't trust his (financial) opinion, so why should I trust his judgement but even during the crisis, I did very well. Only time my parents invested in a stupid fond (real estate), they lost over 30k. Never again. I took over this financial stuff in 2000 and I cannot complain. Life is good. Smiley

    Looking back, I made only two mistakes: I should have kept Bank of America and Tesla for a longterm run. Big mistake of selling them and not buying back (I own both now again but will drop Tesla once they hit 370...hopefully).


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Here's the thing: Now much of your net worth is actually invested like that?

    Making large returns is not difficult. Making large returns on 100% of your money is difficult.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    Here's the thing: Now much of your net worth is actually invested like that?

    Making large returns is not difficult. Making large returns on 100% of your money is difficult.

    Agreed - that's what I meant with "looking at the bank account" Smiley

    If one consistently outperformed the markets making money would be an easy task. Money would accumulate very, very quickly as you would maximize your investments.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    Here's the thing: Now much of your net worth is actually invested like that?

    Making large returns is not difficult. Making large returns on 100% of your money is difficult.

    Well...I can't complain. Smiley Not a bitcoin millionaire though. Smiley Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    RC:
    SciFrog:

    Good points.

    For an investor though you have to wonder how much upside is there left?

    Hopefully a little bit, I bought some Tesla stock at 300 flat, so... Smiley Will sell at 370 or so, I am a pussy, remember?! Smiley

    What is your justification for a $370 per share price?  Based on fundamentals, this company is overvalued.    


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    RC:
    SciFrog:

    Good points.

    For an investor though you have to wonder how much upside is there left?

    Hopefully a little bit, I bought some Tesla stock at 300 flat, so... Smiley Will sell at 370 or so, I am a pussy, remember?! Smiley

    What is your justification for a $370 per share price?  Based on fundamentals, this company is overvalued.    

    You want to know the truth? I did some "research" and some analysts suggest the stock could reach 400.

    This is just a risky experiment for me, no harm done if it fails since I didn't invest much.

    Fundamentals? Are you serious? Judging by what I think about Tesla, the stock would trade around 10 bucks. Smiley Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    RC:
    CGX car nut:
    RC:
    SciFrog:

    Good points.

    For an investor though you have to wonder how much upside is there left?

    Hopefully a little bit, I bought some Tesla stock at 300 flat, so... Smiley Will sell at 370 or so, I am a pussy, remember?! Smiley

    What is your justification for a $370 per share price?  Based on fundamentals, this company is overvalued.    

    You want to know the truth? I did some "research" and some analysts suggest the stock could reach 400.

    This is just a risky experiment for me, no harm done if it fails since I didn't invest much.

    Fundamentals? Are you serious? Judging by what I think about Tesla, the stock would trade around 10 bucks. Smiley Smiley

    Selective research as there are other analysts putting a valuation in the $260

    range.   That’s optimistic too once the true state of Tesla is revealed; the product is better than

    its senior management.   

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I’m with RC. I also take a small percentage (50k) and use it to aggressively day trade (scalp is a better term) one or two stocks at a time.  I average around $250 per day. Last two days I made more than $1000 each day.  If the stock slips it hits my stop loss and I get back in when it turns around. I have not had a losing day in months. It depends also on your trading platform. I use TradeStation.  Love it. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Leawood911:

    I’m with RC. I also take a small percentage (50k) and use it to aggressively day trade (scalp is a better term) one or two stocks at a time.  I average around $250 per day. Last two days I made more than $1000 each day.  If the stock slips it hits my stop loss and I get back in when it turns around. I have not had a losing day in months. It depends also on your trading platform. I use TradeStation.  Love it. 

    The ability to consistenly outperform the market with strategies you or RC describe (using non-professional IT) would indicate highly inefficient capital markets. However, this would be in sharp contrast with nearly all scientific research in this field...

    This apparent discrepancy usually stems from the use of statistically inadequate time periods („this year“ etc.). Over a longer periods of time losses will typically compensate historical gains.

    But, of course, speculation can still be fun.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Keep in mind it's during the longest bull market in history where even mediocre or bad trades would contribute to high returns.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    ... and one needs to take the whole net worth of a person to see how they invest .

    If I buy one stock that is worth 5% of my net worth and make 70% gains it is not the same as someone who would invest   90% of their worth into a diversified portfolio and make 10% 


    --

     964 Carrera 4 --  997.2 C2S , -20mm --  991 GT3 RS 



    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Any business should eventually make a profit.  Tesla is losing Billions every year with little hope of ever turning a profit.  What happens when the music stops ?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    As other mentioned, the small size relative to one’s (of RC’s in his case) wealth is key. Replicating this with a larger fraction would be harder.

    RC is gambling in the stock market with “funny money” and does great at it. Most others here including me invest for the long term much larger amounts proportionally. IMHO gambling and day trading requires 100% attention and monitoring and most of us here cannot do that.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    GT-Boy:

    Any business should eventually make a profit.  Tesla is losing Billions every year with little hope of ever turning a profit.  What happens when the music stops ?

    You should read the comments posted on several Tesla-related Internet forums; most of the Tesla fans state that the company doesn’t need to ever be profitable because its secret plan is to force the other automakers to exclusively build EVs in the not-too-distant future.  That secret plan is actually a Musk & Co. document on the Tesla website.  However, this company doesn’t have unlimited borrowing capabilities from the capital markets.  If it can’t successfully produce the Model 3 in volume within the next quarter in 2018, investors will flee in mass. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    That's actually incorrect. A company can break even forever. In fact, you could arguably even lose small amounts of money for a very, very long time. It's not like workers aren't being paid and revenue isn't being generated. The stock would collapse, but the company wouldn't have to disappear.

    Tesla cannot lose hundreds of millions or billions of dollars forever, but it could lose 10s of millions for decades. Elon Musk alone could fund those kind of losses for a very, very long time.

    Hell, is Tesla shrunk it's loss to even $100M over the next year, the stock would probably skyrocket on another decade of hope.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    That's actually incorrect. A company can break even forever. In fact, you could arguably even lose small amounts of money for a very, very long time. It's not like workers aren't being paid and revenue isn't being generated. The stock would collapse, but the company wouldn't have to disappear.

    Tesla cannot lose hundreds of millions or billions of dollars forever, but it could lose 10s of millions for decades. Elon Musk alone could fund those kind of losses for a very, very long time.

    Hell, is Tesla shrunk it's loss to even $100M over the next year, the stock would probably skyrocket on another decade of hope.

    That’s precious...you explaining equity pricing to me.  

    Tesla is not immune to the market forces that determine its market capitalization.  Tesla’s discounted future free cash flows is its enterprise value.  Enterprise value is debt plus equity minus cash, hence if that expected future free cash mapping changes the equity price will adjust.  Note that additional debt loads will impact the value of its equity.   Once the institutional investors pull out, it becomes more difficult for Tesla to raise needed additional capital.

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla's debt is certainly less than it's value (IP, goodwill, etc.) Also, who cares if Tesla is public or private? Maybe shareholders get wiped out, bondholders become the new owners, and Tesla trucks along for another 10 years. Maybe they just get bought out.

    You're dreaming if you think Tesla is going to disappear just because they can't make a profit directly selling cars in the immediate future. A tech company could cover Tesla's debts with 3 months of cash flow if they think they could do something interesting with Tesla. Alphabet loses billions per year on "Other Bets."

    Tesla's public market cap is pretty irrelevant now to whether they exist or not in the future. It's say Tesla's future in the automotive segment is solidified.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    Tesla's debt is certainly less than it's value (IP, goodwill, etc.) Also, who cares if Tesla is public or private? Maybe shareholders get wiped out, bondholders become the new owners, and Tesla trucks along for another 10 years. Maybe they just get bought out.

    You're dreaming if you think Tesla is going to disappear just because they can't make a profit directly selling cars in the immediate future. A tech company could cover Tesla's debts with 3 months of cash flow if they think they could do something interesting with Tesla. Alphabet loses billions per year on "Other Bets."

    Tesla's public market cap is pretty irrelevant now to whether they exist or not in the future. It's say Tesla's future in the automotive segment is solidified.

    EBITDA or even EBIT is not free cash flow, not for Tesla for sure. Free cash flow is what matters to the stock price and also when it comes to bankruptcy related questions. The bubble (and Tesla itself) can burst within 2 weeks when the market realizes the truth.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I meant 3 months of their own free cash flow if they wanted to acquire Tesla.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    I meant 3 months of their own free cash flow if they wanted to acquire Tesla.

    You’re starting to babble, there’s less value in Tesla than you realize.   Tesla’s IP is less valuable than you and many investors think it is worth.  Key technologies and know how came from AC Propulsion.   Tesla’s IP in those areas is mere increments over that core technologies.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    So buy the puts and makes millions... I mean, you're convinced there is less value 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    https://electrek.co/2017/12/06/jaguar-ipace-all-electric-prototype-fleet/

    Coming next year. More than 200 prototypes built and being tested.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    AP911:

    https://electrek.co/2017/12/06/jaguar-ipace-all-electric-prototype-fleet/

    Coming next year. More than 200 prototypes built and being tested.

    Indeed, Jaguar seems quite keen on development miles...

    In the development process, some 200 prototypes have been driven for more than 1.5 million miles. The project has been worked on by more than 500 engineers over four years"

    Link: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-geneva-motor-show/jaguar-i-pace-development-course-march-2018-launch

    ...unlike Tesla! Smiley


     
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