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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Today is judgement day for Musk in the SEC matter and JPMorgan is stating that Tesla, in reporting Q1 results-posted above-have undermined Musk’s case.  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/tesla-just-undermined-elon-musks-defense-against-the-sec-jp-morgan-says.html


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Model 3 deliveries and production are not an issue, but the drop in S/X sales is more than expected.

    Most likely two factors: many sales were pushed up in Q4 because of the drop in federal tax credit, and the Model 3 is just too good and stealing sales from the S. Actually all the moves in Q1 seem to confirm this (removal of the low spec S and lowering prices of S/X). The rumors of a refresh also probably slowed down sales a bit. Maybe some are holding out for the Y too, or for other manufacturers. Also Q1 is always seasonally lower sales and the overall market is softening.

    The key is going Q2 financials: they will need to show the effects of cost reductions as well as a rebound in sales. Q1 is already written off as being ugly. The stock will trade close (but seemingly above) the low of the last year so investors are not alarmed (yet).

    This is a pretty good summary:

    https://apple.news/APgEn7lRxT-St34Ky64CR_Q


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla junk bond prices drop as CDS prices surge.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-bonds/teslas-junk-bond-slammed-on-car-deliveries-miss-cds-cost-surges-idUSKCN1RG1MF

    Investor confidence shaken.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    There is material for both sides of the fence, as usual. One will say S/X demand drop is permanent, the others will say that the market needs time to readjust to the new prices (for example I bought the X one day after the price drop and got delivery 2 days before the end of the quarter, not few can move that fast...). The truth probably lies in between and as such medium term prospects are probably intact.

    Anyway I have been clamoring for the longest time Tesla made a mistake to sell the 3 before the Y. Sedans sales are collapsing in the USA (Tesla took a big chunk of that segment) and the X is an odd duckling (not everyone needs a large 7 seater vehicle). The real test for Tesla will be Y sales vs Audi and such. Porsche is irrelevant in the long run as vs Tesla they will not compete head to head for a while (the S is much larger than the Taycan, the 3 will be much cheaper, the Macan EV will cost double the price of a Y). FYI Tesla sold almost as many cars as Porsche last month in Germany angry

    There are also a lot of unknowns, particularly how much the production of cars directly in China will affect the bottom line, or the solar/energy/solar roof business. And the stock is still higher than it was 2 years ago, the capacity of Tesla to raise capital is probably intact.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Porsche had (almost) no cars to sell... (WLTP disaster) Smiley


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Lamborghini Huracan Performante (May 2019), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mercedes C63 S AMG Cab (2019), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla Model 3 Is Crushing German Sedans In Europe

    https://apple.news/A-nzaQSHDT0-X23SrbZT9vw

    I had not realized the Tesla was doing so well there...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The ETron might just have gotten a real heap of trouble:

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2019-audi-e-tron-suv-range-on-sale-date-released/#ftag=CAD590a51e

    EPA has just rated the car with a 95kw battery at 204 miles range. To compare, my X is rated 289 miles with a 100kw battery, despite being larger and seating 7. The IPace 234.

    I would never have bought a car with such a small range, because the EPA rating is under controlled conditions and real life will be worse, let alone when it will be hot or more importantly very cold.

    Plus at $75k base price (with no options, the base X already has all the premium interior) it will be a hard sell for what in truth is just an Audi Q5, with a base price of $43k...

    Can’t wait to see what the real life range of a sport tuned EV like the Taycan will bring (let alone its vapor ware price).

    PS: some quick math, the X is rated at 340kw/mi and the ETron 409kw/mi. In real life, I drive at 400, which would give the ETron a 481kw/mi equivalent. The article says the ETron is limited to 83.5wk, that’s 173 miles (and that assumes you drive the car to 0%), and in perfect weather. If you reserve the bottom 10% like any sane person would do, your range drops to 153 miles. That’s really tight... Personally if I went to work and ran a couple of errands, I would be out of battery...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    Tesla Model 3 Is Crushing German Sedans In Europe

    https://apple.news/A-nzaQSHDT0-X23SrbZT9vw

    I had not realized the Tesla was doing so well there...

    The word "crushing" is kind of a joke, if you read the article... They compare the Model 3 sales in the first month where the car became available to a fraction (sedan) of a fraction of low/mid price sales of Mercedes etc. Totally meaningless, written to write something.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Well what else are you going to compare it to? This is sedans vs sedans since Tesla does not make the other variants. Of course there might have been some pent up demand, but delivery capacity were also severely constrained...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    ...Tesla volumes seem to have passed a peak? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    An interesting development where I live has to do with gasoline taxes.

    Ohio's legislature just passed a new law that increases the gasoline tax by US$0.105 per gallon.  There was a lot of debate about the amount, but not about the general need.  Income from the Ohio gas tax must be spent on roadway improvements or repairs as mandated by statute.  It's illegal to spend gas tax monies on anything else. I'm happy that they have to spend it on the roads and can't redirect it elsewhere.

    The legislature decided that hybrids and BEV were evading their fair share of road maintenance so they decided to add a yearly $100 registration surcharge to hybrids and a yearly $200 surcharge for PHEV/BEV.  The $200 fee works out to be the equivalent to the Ohio tax on 520 gallons of fuel.

    If one assumes 29 mpg blended fleet fuel economy for personal vehicles (CAFE for 2016 = 28.8), the surcharge seems to be calculated for 15,000 miles per year of driving for the average vehicle owner which is right in line with established data.

    So, the inevitable arrival of road use taxes for electric cars is now!

    (DDD) "Plug-in electric motor vehicle" means a passenger car powered

    wholly or in part by a battery cell energy system that can be recharged via

    an external source of electricity.

    (EEE) "Hybrid motor vehicle" means a passenger car powered by an

    internal propulsion system consisting of both of the following:

    (1) A combustion engine;

    (2) A battery cell energy system that cannot be recharged via an external

    source of electricity but can be recharged by other vehicle mechanisms that

    capture and store electric energy.

    --

     

    Mike

     

    918 Spyder + 991.2 GT2 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S P100D AP2 + Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    W8MM:

    An interesting development where I live has to do with gasoline taxes.

    Ohio's legislature just passed a new law that increases the gasoline/diesel-fuel tax by US$0.107 per gallon.  There was a lot of debate about the amount, but not about the general need.  Income from the Ohio gas tax must be spent on roadway improvements or repairs as mandated by statute.  It's illegal to spend gas tax monies on anything else. I'm happy that they have to spend it on the roads and can't redirect it elsewhere.

    The legislature decided that hybrids and BEV were evading their fair share of road maintenance so they decided to add a yearly $100 registration surcharge to hybrids and a yearly $200 surcharge for PHEV/BEV.  The $200 fee works out to be the equivalent to the Ohio tax on 517 gallons of fuel.

    If one assumes 29 mpg blended fleet fuel economy for personal vehicles (CAFE for 2016 = 28.8), the surcharge seems to be calculated for 15,000 miles per year of driving for the average vehicle owner which is right in line with established data.

    So, the inevitable arrival of road use taxes for electric cars is now!

    (DDD) "Plug-in electric motor vehicle" means a passenger car powered

    wholly or in part by a battery cell energy system that can be recharged via

    an external source of electricity.

    (EEE) "Hybrid motor vehicle" means a passenger car powered by an

    internal propulsion system consisting of both of the following:

    (1) A combustion engine;

    (2) A battery cell energy system that cannot be recharged via an external

    source of electricity but can be recharged by other vehicle mechanisms that

    capture and store electric energy.

    --

     

    Mike

     

    918 Spyder + 991.2 GT2 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S P100D AP2 + Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T

    Happy to read that one state is finally addressing the issue of hybrids and EVs paying significantly less in road usage taxes.  This is a better approach than trying to enact realtime tolling a few jurisdictions have proposed.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    The ETron might just have gotten a real heap of trouble:

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2019-audi-e-tron-suv-range-on-sale-date-released/#ftag=CAD590a51e

    EPA has just rated the car with a 95kw battery at 204 miles range. To compare, my X is rated 289 miles with a 100kw battery, despite being larger and seating 7. The IPace 234.

    I would never have bought a car with such a small range, because the EPA rating is under controlled conditions and real life will be worse, let alone when it will be hot or more importantly very cold.

    Plus at $75k base price (with no options, the base X already has all the premium interior) it will be a hard sell for what in truth is just an Audi Q5, with a base price of $43k...

    Can’t wait to see what the real life range of a sport tuned EV like the Taycan will bring (let alone its vapor ware price).

    PS: some quick math, the X is rated at 340kw/mi and the ETron 409kw/mi. In real life, I drive at 400, which would give the ETron a 481kw/mi equivalent. The article says the ETron is limited to 83.5wk, that’s 173 miles (and that assumes you drive the car to 0%), and in perfect weather. If you reserve the bottom 10% like any sane person would do, your range drops to 153 miles. That’s really tight... Personally if I went to work and ran a couple of errands, I would be out of battery...

    Maybe yes, maybe no.  The markets alone will decide the fate of the e-tron, but don't forget that the Volkswagen Group has deep resources, both in terms of financially and in human capital.  If Audi's market analysis proves wrong, it can readily deploy additional financial resources to address the situation far more easily than can Tesla.  This past quarter has demonstrated that Tesla, under Musk, operates erratically and on a whim versus under the more analytical focus of the more established automakers.  

    Audi, while equipping the e-tron with a 95 kWh battery pack only uses approximately 83 kWh to decrease charge time and to prevent noticeable degradation of the battery pack.  Others in the Group may use different approaches, for example Porsche, and this is the benefit this large consortium brings to market.  The individual units within Volkswagen Group can take on different controlled units of risk through applying different technologies to determine the most cost and consumer acceptable approaches are optimal.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    ... but they need ages to get anything done. It's the curse of large organizations   


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    schmoell:

    ... but they need ages to get anything done. It's the curse of large organizations   

    Not disagreeing but that is what happens as enterprises grow and become bureaucracies.  Most publicly-traded companies are risk adverse,  which sometimes, ironically, causes the organization to increase its risk profiles.  However, that level of conservatism tends to mirror that of its customer base.  

    As previously written, Volkswagen Group and the other major automakers in the EU are not moving to EVs to compete against Tesla, but moving because of regulatory standards.  Tesla had a much brighter future without the impetuous man-child that controls the company.  Perhaps later today, the company will finally get the badly needed leadership it deserves.  However many structural issues will remain in place for years as the overall product strategy is faulty and it is hampered by a constrained capital structure.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Just in.  Judge is indecisive and punts matter back to the SEC to work out a solution with Tesla and Musk within the next two weeks.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Three Small Stickers in Intersection Can Cause Tesla Autopilot to Swerve Into Wrong Lane

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/three-small-stickers-on-road-can-steer-tesla-autopilot-into-oncoming-lane

    Adversaries might be able to "fool" AI driving algorithms into doing bad stuff on purpose?
    --

     

    Mike

     

    918 Spyder + 991.2 GT2 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S P100D AP2 + Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The Federal Government with bipartisan support is considering an increase in gasoline tax to pay for the infrastructure that is needed. In the past the Democrats had resisted the increase because of the impact on the poor but the infrastructure is in such disrepair they apparently will go alone with one. 


    --

    There is nothing stronger than gentleness.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    W8MM:

    Three Small Stickers in Intersection Can Cause Tesla Autopilot to Swerve Into Wrong Lane

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/three-small-stickers-on-road-can-steer-tesla-autopilot-into-oncoming-lane

    Adversaries might be able to "fool" AI driving algorithms into doing bad stuff on purpose?
    --

     

    Mike

     

    918 Spyder + 991.2 GT2 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S P100D AP2 + Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T

    What is disconcerting about this discovery is not nefarious activities but that these marks resemble markings found on roadways to mark utility lines and other information.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    nberry:

    The Federal Government with bipartisan support is considering an increase in gasoline tax to pay for the infrastructure that is needed. In the past the Democrats had resisted the increase because of the impact on the poor but the infrastructure is in such disrepair they apparently will go alone with one. 

     

    As it should, someone has to pair their air share.

    But they are still ignoring the other part of the pie, those EV and hybrids. They should copy the Ohio model.


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    today I have a model 3 performance for the week end.

    Really curious how it drives in normally day in Italy.

    first the car is fun with its acceleration, cant stop doing 0-100 in 3 sec...to much fun and with no one looking bad at you since no one hears you.

    the car is fast, drove even to 250 kmh for around 40 km..no problem with that, feels like a tech toy more than a car. The real life problem is just the range, driving in my normal way here in Italy i cannot go for more than 200 km, and the supercharger are to few here in  Italy. I did a 200 km journey yesterday, and got saved by the supercharher that in 40 min managade to complete my trip in a fast tempo. tonight a charged it at home with the 16 amp 220v, which means 10 h for 200 km ca...to slow and have to understand what can be done for that.

    As far as today, my only real life problem is that if I drive 400 km a day and get home at almost 0 , the day after I will only have 50% charged...and it is a problem. will see today and sunday how it goes....

     


    --

    993 c2


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    If you only get 200km usable range in a model 3, you will not be driving an EV for a long time... They are by far the most efficient luxury EV today, the Porsche Audi and Jaguar would be even worse. And that’s EXACLTY what I was referring in the other thread, a Taycan tuned for sporty ride and accelerations driven like a Porsche should be will have a horrible range. When people realize that, they will resell them as fast as they jumped on the wait list. You are obviously driving must faster than the speed limit, EV are not ready or even really designed for that today.

    Meanwhile I enjoy a 360km range for my daily commute in the X smiley (mix of city and semi congested highway).

    BTW, a 40 amp charger at the minimum is a must to have an EV in your garage to get a full charge in the morning.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Interesting perspective from a country with vast distances and a current EV take-up of 0.2%

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/is-bill-shorten-in-the-driver-s-seat-or-just-an-electric-dreamer-20190404-p51arz.html


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    "Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet: FT"

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_cont...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    “Your car is now able to maintain torque and power for longer periods of time when driving at high speeds.”
    “The top speed of your car has also been increased to 162 MPH.”
    https://electrek.co/2019/04/06/tesla-model-3-power-high-top-speed/

    Tesla is working on a new electric motor upgrade for Model S and Model X with a more efficient permanent magnet reluctance system based on the motor Tesla developed for Model 3.
    https://electrek.co/2019/04/05/tesla-model-s-new-electric-motors/


    Re: Tesla Roadster

     

    Spring cleaning and tax season. Decided to show my digital and analogue cars some TLC to distract me from my taxes!

    81C16AE0-98A3-41EC-A171-7039D0542DDA.jpeg
    CB288A32-B717-48E3-9C13-374F31D618B0.jpeg


    --

    Tesla Model S P100D & Model X P90D & 2016 BMW i8 & 2017 Sept 991.2 GT3 ordered. 2020 Porsche Mission E on order


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I did my week end.

    I have to say that the car is fun a lot of fun, did not expect that, all what I heard about EV that they are boring, is just bullshit. The car is  fast, damn fast, and there is no problem in every day use regarding prestanda. Actually the most fun is on the autostrada with the audi/merc/bmw with their 3.0 turbodiesels...coming at your back  , and when you are around 120/130 kmh in heavy traffic and when you have freee lane in front they start to flash to pass...you flat out and leave all of them there and you are already at 200kmh..priceless....hahahah

    The charge driving normally fast, ca 150/160kmh in the autostrada and normal in city I achieved 300 km , which is far better then expected, the superchargers are just fantastic in 20 min you got a lot of energy, they charge in ca 700km/hour, and it is incredible fast, and this year with the v3 they should drop to half of the time..impressive...

    also the reaction from the people where not expected..all where tumbs up...especially from the young people.....here the tesla is cool....much cooler than any ferrari o lambo...and we are in the land of those cars here in Bologna..

    just need min 50 amp at home to survive every day use...love this car ....will go for one at the end.....just don't understand the ones that are talking shit about this car??...the build quality is not german of course..but who cares..it gives you so much on the other hand.

    Even driving fast on the autostrada at 200 and over in the fast curves was never creepy...just like any other german car ...maybe even better due to the fact that all weight is so low..

    love it


    --

    993 c2


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Just two points... 

    xander71:

    I did my week end.

    I have to say that the car is fun a lot of fun, did not expect that, all what I heard about EV that they are boring, is just bullshit. The car is  fast, damn fast, and there is no problem in every day use regarding prestanda. Actually the most fun is on the autostrada with the audi/merc/bmw with their 3.0 turbodiesels...coming at your back  , and when you are around 120/130 kmh in heavy traffic and when you have freee lane in front they start to flash to pass...you flat out and leave all of them there and you are already at 200kmh..priceless....hahahah

    From what you have written above, your idea of fun is clearly not my idea of fun driving, which may explain why you don't get other's describing then a boring.

    The charge driving normally fast, ca 150/160kmh in the autostrada and normal in city I achieved 300 km , which is far better then expected, the superchargers are just fantastic in 20 min you got a lot of energy, they charge in ca 700km/hour, and it is incredible fast, and this year with the v3 they should drop to half of the time..impressive...

    also the reaction from the people where not expected..all where tumbs up...especially from the young people.....here the tesla is cool....much cooler than any ferrari o lambo...and we are in the land of those cars here in Bologna..

    Yes, but who is giving you the thumbs up, hipsters running around on their EV scooters? If they were from fellow petrolheads then I would appreciate those thumbs up but that wont seem likely.

     


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Carlos from Spain:

    Yes, but who is giving you the thumbs up, hipsters running around on their EV scooters? If they were from fellow petrolheads then I would appreciate those thumbs up but that wont seem likely.

     

    Smiley Smiley Good one...

    The novelty factor of EVs will run off fast once they are everywhere. Then, it is going to be interesting which ones will prevail because 95% will be considered boring, soulless and just a mean of transportation. The Prius already got there, others will follow... Smiley Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Lamborghini Huracan Performante (May 2019), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mercedes C63 S AMG Cab (2019), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)


     
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