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    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    apias:
    RC:
     

    Good question. The EU has already acted (actually before the scandal): From 2016 on, some real world driving tests are required. This may actually put a lot of turbo charged and Diesel operated engines under a lot of pressure, some may even disappear. ...

    This is actually a very interesting point. One could almost consider a turbocharger, particularly when applied to a small, low-power engine (not so much in the case of, say, a 911 Turbo) a "defeat device". The whole point of manufacturers going to TC engines is that it allows them to meet emissions and mileage standards, which have not, to date, been tested in real world conditions. Driven in real world conditions, most of these TC cars are not going to deliver anywhere near the mileage set in sedate test conditions, nor are emissions likely to be as tested. So, if the testing changes, what is this going to do to the strategies that nearly every automaker have adopted for meeting fuel economy standards?

    Is Hybrid technology going to, overnight, become more or less mandatory in order to meet fuel economy and emissions standards? (Although, plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars are, in a way, "defeat devices" themselves, since they avoid the emissions issue altogether by pushing it off on someone else, the electric utility companies.)

    Industry standards, including emissions tests or crash tests, have up until been based on the "science of the possible".
    By that I mean, the standards have been set so that it is feasible to achieve them with existing science, though it might well involve using special measures which cost more, like catalytic converters or strategically strengthened passenger cells and deformable crush zones. As know-how improves, test standards can be made progressively tighter within the limitations of the achievable. 
    A car which does not sell because it cannot be built to a marketable price, or cannot even be technically built at all to meet ultra-high standards, does not save any lives.
    Arbitrarily setting high standards and then installing "real world" test conditions which all state-of-the-art vehicles would be doomed to fail would also not help anyone.
    As already seen in the case of EV vehicles, where emissions are currently only geographically relocated rather than genuinely eliminated, there is no viable short-term alternative to internal combustion engines. 


    --

    fritz


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    It's spreading.....Italian police raid VW Italy HQ in Verona and Lamborghini HQ in Bologna  to investigate emissions fraud.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

     

     

    LOL, Lambo? You mean their claim or 2 MPG was a lie?

     


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    JimFlat6:

    It's spreading.....Italian police raid VW Italy HQ in Verona and Lamborghini HQ in Bologna  to investigate emissions fraud.

    God help you if the Italian police set their sights on you. They'll find "incriminating documents" and throw people in jail with or without actual evidence.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    fritz:

    As already seen in the case of EV vehicles, where emissions are currently only geographically relocated rather than genuinely eliminated, there is no viable short-term alternative to internal combustion engines. 

    This is somewhat dependent on where you live.  On average, in the US, electric vehicles of all types have about half the CO2 emissions of conventional gasoline powered vehicles, and that is with about half of the power generation coming from coal fired plants.  In some areas, such as California, where much less of the power generation comes from coal, the all electric vehicle starts to have a distinct low emission advantage.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    I am pretty sure that in 10-20 years, electric cars will actually be much "greener" than their gasoline engine powered counter parts but it takes new technology (more effective solar panels, more effective energy storage devices, etc.) to achieve that. When in Las Vegas, I am actually very surprised how little solar energy is used to power private houses. I see more solar panels over here in Bavaria on houses than I ever saw in Nevada on houses. Weird.

    Maybe conventional electric power is too cheap in Nevada or too expensive in Bavaria. Smiley Smiley


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Ford Mustang GT500 Shelby SVT (2014), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

     


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    RC:

    I see more solar panels over here in Bavaria on houses than I ever saw in Nevada on houses. Weird.

    Maybe conventional electric power is too cheap in Nevada or too expensive in Bavaria. Smiley Smiley

    German Government subsidies is the answer


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    GM Austin:
    fritz:

    As already seen in the case of EV vehicles, where emissions are currently only geographically relocated rather than genuinely eliminated, there is no viable short-term alternative to internal combustion engines. 

    This is somewhat dependent on where you live.  On average, in the US, electric vehicles of all types have about half the CO2 emissions of conventional gasoline powered vehicles, and that is with about half of the power generation coming from coal fired plants.  In some areas, such as California, where much less of the power generation comes from coal, the all electric vehicle starts to have a distinct low emission advantage.

    Naturally the mix of electricity generation systems used varies regionally, but most regions have old, less efficient and "dirtier" generation plant which should ideally be decommissioned sooner rather than later. Any surge in the use of electricity for EVs could only be catered for in most regions by keeping this old plant online for longer than would otherwise be the case. 
    Whilst atomic energy systems are considered by their proponents to be environmentally clean, they too have their own issues for which we don't have real long-term solutions. 


    --

    fritz


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    Heard a commercial on the radio this morning where VW is offering 0% financing on pretty much all models for up to 84 months, or up to $7000 in cash discounts. They were very clear to specify "gasoline", and actually repeated it a few times throughout the commercial. I wonder if their general sales have fallen off?


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    sfo:
    RC:

    I see more solar panels over here in Bavaria on houses than I ever saw in Nevada on houses. Weird.

    Maybe conventional electric power is too cheap in Nevada or too expensive in Bavaria. Smiley Smiley

    German Government subsidies is the answer

    The tax breaks and other forms of subsidies allowed by some governments to encourage the take-up of renewable energy systems have obviously contributed to them becoming more widely used. This has also in turn accelerated improvements in the production techniques for such systems as well as in the energy-conversion efficiency rates of the systems, so that their take-up rates can be maintained at high levels despite the subsidies being progressively reduced.

    The improved economics of renewable energy systems along with boosted fossil-fuel production thanks to fracking have helped halve the market prices of oil and gas, so that we will not be such easy victims for OPEC and others in the future. 

    So the subsidies have served their purpose well.   Smiley


    --

    fritz


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    sfo:
    RC:

    I see more solar panels over here in Bavaria on houses than I ever saw in Nevada on houses. Weird.

    Maybe conventional electric power is too cheap in Nevada or too expensive in Bavaria. Smiley Smiley

    German Government subsidies is the answer

    Nope, energy costs in the US have always been lower than in Europe. That is why we tend to drive bigger cars and our gas is again approaching $2 a gallon (under 2.75 in California)


    --
    Porsche owner since 1975.

    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    vtrader:
    sfo:
    RC:

    I see more solar panels over here in Bavaria on houses than I ever saw in Nevada on houses. Weird.

    Maybe conventional electric power is too cheap in Nevada or too expensive in Bavaria. Smiley Smiley

    German Government subsidies is the answer

    Nope, energy costs in the US have always been lower than in Europe. That is why we tend to drive bigger cars and our gas is again approaching $2 a gallon (under 2.75 in California)

    It would also be a fallacy to think that renewable energy systems are not subsidised in the USA. I suspect that awareness of these subsidies is just lower because they are awarded at state or city level rather than by the federal government, so that the availability of information on them is more fragmented.  Smiley

    Just came across this article discussing the downward trend in the cost of renewable source electricity generation, to the point that wind are solar energy costs have apparently already reached parity with gas and coal generating plant in many parts of the USA.
    The same trend applies in Europe. The UK government is, after years of dithering on long-term energy planning, just about to award a contract to a Chinese entity to build the first new nuclear power station in decades and guaranteeing a high future price for the energy it will produce when it comes on-stream. It'll probably happen just in time before it becomes glaringly obvious that it will not make economic sense over the lifetime of the plant. 


    --

    fritz


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    fritz:
    vtrader:
    sfo:
    RC:

    I see more solar panels over here in Bavaria on houses than I ever saw in Nevada on houses. Weird.

    Maybe conventional electric power is too cheap in Nevada or too expensive in Bavaria. Smiley Smiley

    German Government subsidies is the answer

    Nope, energy costs in the US have always been lower than in Europe. That is why we tend to drive bigger cars and our gas is again approaching $2 a gallon (under 2.75 in California)

    It would also be a fallacy to think that renewable energy systems are not subsidised in the USA. I suspect that awareness of these subsidies is just lower because they are awarded at state or city level rather than by the federal government, so that the availability of information on them is more fragmented.  Smiley

    Just came across this article discussing the downward trend in the cost of renewable source electricity generation, to the point that wind are solar energy costs have apparently already reached parity with gas and coal generating plant in many parts of the USA.
    The same trend applies in Europe. The UK government is, after years of dithering on long-term energy planning, just about to award a contract to a Chinese entity to build the first new nuclear power station in decades and guaranteeing a high future price for the energy it will produce when it comes on-stream. It'll probably happen just in time before it becomes glaringly obvious that it will not make economic sense over the lifetime of the plant. 

    It would have been a good idea to attach the link to the article I referred to Smiley : 
    http://moneymorning.com/2015/10/16/the-one-element-that-will-change-the-renewable-energy-landscape/


    --

    fritz


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    fritz:

    It would also be a fallacy to think that renewable energy systems are not subsidised in the USA. I suspect that awareness of these subsidies is just lower because they are awarded at state or city level rather than by the federal government, so that the availability of information on them is more fragmented.  Smiley

    As an example, the city where I live will pay for about half the cost of a homeowner's rooftop solar panel installation. I took advantage of that about three years ago. We also get credit on our federal taxes for solar panels.  The end result was rooftop solar that generates about half the electricity my home uses and I paid for about 1/4 of the cost to install the panels.  Payback will be about 7years. 


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    GM Austin:
    fritz:

    It would also be a fallacy to think that renewable energy systems are not subsidised in the USA. I suspect that awareness of these subsidies is just lower because they are awarded at state or city level rather than by the federal government, so that the availability of information on them is more fragmented.  Smiley

    As an example, the city where I live will pay for about half the cost of a homeowner's rooftop solar panel installation. I took advantage of that about three years ago. We also get credit on our federal taxes for solar panels.  The end result was rooftop solar that generates about half the electricity my home uses and I paid for about 1/4 of the cost to install the panels.  Payback will be about 7years. 

    Interesting. That means that the capital cost is subsidised to a much greater extent in Texas than it would be in either Germany or the UK, the two countries I have relevant experience in.

    From memory, the front-end benefit of installing a thermal solar panel array on my house in Germany corresponded to getting the Value Added Tax refunded. (Around 19% of net cost). The payback would be achieved through reduced heating oil consumption over the life of the system.

    The installation cost of a photovoltaic system on my current UK house was zero rated for VAT (otherwise it would have been 20%), and the payback is by way of reduced consumption of electricity from the utility company plus a long-term guaranteed enhanced feed-in tariff for surplus electricity sold back to the grid.

    Similarly to yours, payback for both systems was expected to be 6 to 8 years on paper. 

     


    --

    fritz


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    fritz:
     

    Interesting. That means that the capital cost is subsidised to a much greater extent in Texas than it would be in either Germany or the UK, the two countries I have relevant experience in.

    Similarly to yours, payback for both systems was expected to be 6 to 8 years on paper

    I should have been more specific about where in Texas.  This is Austin Texas, an area quite different politically, and with a higher degree of environmental awareness, than the rest of the state.  I don't think this level of subsidy is available anywhere else in Texas.  But I believe there are other cities and states offering substantial subsidies for photovoltaic panels. Hawaii for example has had generous tax credits for photovoltaic panels for some time in an effort to reduce their unusually high cost of conventional electricity generation.  

    "On paper", yes!  Hopefully it will pay for itself in a few years.  Our city owned electric utility will only subsidize panel installations they approve of and they will not approve anything that generates more than half of your home's average electric consumption.  In the winter I sometimes generate more than I use, and get a credit.  In the summer (very hot here) I generate about half, sometimes less.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    GM Austin:
    fritz:
     

    Interesting. That means that the capital cost is subsidised to a much greater extent in Texas than it would be in either Germany or the UK, the two countries I have relevant experience in.

    Similarly to yours, payback for both systems was expected to be 6 to 8 years on paper

    I should have been more specific about where in Texas.  This is Austin Texas, an area quite different politically, and with a higher degree of environmental awareness, than the rest of the state.  I don't think this level of subsidy is available anywhere else in Texas.  But I believe there are other cities and states offering substantial subsidies for photovoltaic panels. Hawaii for example has had generous tax credits for photovoltaic panels for some time in an effort to reduce their unusually high cost of conventional electricity generation.  

    "On paper", yes!  Hopefully it will pay for itself in a few years.  Our city owned electric utility will only subsidize panel installations they approve of and they will not approve anything that generates more than half of your home's average electric consumption.  In the winter I sometimes generate more than I use, and get a credit.  In the summer (very hot here) I generate about half, sometimes less.

    Your first sentences confirm what I suspected about the subsidy situation in the USA being fragmented.  That in itself will hold back market penetration due to lack of widespread transparency of the cost/benefits calculation. 

    I said "on paper" because I sold the house with thermal solar panels after a couple of years, so did not personally benefit from them for very long. The photovoltaic system on our current house was only installed earlier  this year, and things look extremely good in terms of reduced grid electricity consumption and feed-in tariff income so far, so I'm confident of achieving payback within the targeted period.   Smiley


    --

    fritz


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    My parents' home in San Diego has solar panels that were installed by the power company and are leased to back to them.  Any excess power generated is sold back to the power company.  Monthly costs come out to a bit less than buying power outright.  That is a good way to go since you need not front the cost of the solar panels and do not own them.  

    I read today that now the FTC is investigating VW for its clean diesel marketing claims. 


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    vantagesc:

    My parents' home in San Diego has solar panels that were installed by the power company and are leased to back to them.  Any excess power generated is sold back to the power company.  Monthly costs come out to a bit less than buying power outright.  That is a good way to go since you need not front the cost of the solar panels and do not own them.  

    I read today that now the FTC is investigating VW for its clean diesel marketing claims. 

    If the cars were really clean diesel, the exhaust outlet would be positioned in the instrument panel to blow that clean, fresh air into the driver's face.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    just read that these fake  " clean diesel " VWs are EACH spewing more lung damaging NOx  pollutants than an 18 wheeler diesel truck !


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    MKW:

    just read that these fake  " clean diesel " VWs are EACH spewing more lung damaging NOx  pollutants than an 18 wheeler diesel truck !

    Not quite.  The overall over-the-road fleet emits significantly more NOx than the Volkswagen products in question.  Reread my earlier post on light vehicles and light trucks cumulative NOx is 0.1% of the overall transportation NOx emissions.  New heavy duty trucks have lower NOx levels than what was observed, at the margin, from the illegal Volkswagen fleet; however, the overall heavy duty truck fleet are gross emitters of NOx.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    CGX car nut:
    MKW:

    just read that these fake  " clean diesel " VWs are EACH spewing more lung damaging NOx  pollutants than an 18 wheeler diesel truck !

    Not quite.  The overall over-the-road fleet emits significantly more NOx than the Volkswagen products in question.  Reread my earlier post on light vehicles and light trucks cumulative NOx is 0.1% of the overall transportation NOx emissions.  New heavy duty trucks have lower NOx levels than what was observed, at the margin, from the illegal Volkswagen fleet; however, the overall heavy duty truck fleet are gross emitters of NOx.

    I'm not sure you are in complete disagreement here.

    Actually, it seems you are saying pretty much the same thing, at least in part.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    apias:
    CGX car nut:
    MKW:

    just read that these fake  " clean diesel " VWs are EACH spewing more lung damaging NOx  pollutants than an 18 wheeler diesel truck !

    Not quite.  The overall over-the-road fleet emits significantly more NOx than the Volkswagen products in question.  Reread my earlier post on light vehicles and light trucks cumulative NOx is 0.1% of the overall transportation NOx emissions.  New heavy duty trucks have lower NOx levels than what was observed, at the margin, from the illegal Volkswagen fleet; however, the overall heavy duty truck fleet are gross emitters of NOx.

    I'm not sure you are in complete disagreement here.

    Actually, it seems you are saying pretty much the same thing, at least in part.

    The statements differ.  The Volkswagen diesel cars do pollute, at times, above the limits mandated for heavy duty trucks in the United States; however, those periods for the Volkswagen are only during heavy engine loads.  Once again, a maximum value without variance is almost meaningless to use as a one-to-one comparison.



    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    The latest estimates in the international Press relating to the costs to VW from the emissions affair are some €40 billion in direct costs (repairs, replacements fines, lawsuits) and another one time that amount in loss of revenues due to falling sales.

    If the above prove true then VW AG with an operating profit  of €12+ billion in 2014, will not be able to withstand without government assistance. It will be no problem for the Federal Government to intervene if the politicians evaluate that  VW falls in the "too big to fail" category. Germany has a GDP of over €14 trillion and the €80 billion which might be required is peanuts if you think that they average at €1.000 per German citizen. Besides, €80 billion is what Germany has given to Greece (so far) which we all know will never be repaid. From VW the German government might even get a profit when the company will be re-privatized in a few years time.

    The reduction in sales IMO will be temporary and it will last 2-3 years max simply because VW Group make outstanding cars. Many of those who have tried them rarely look back to other brands.

    The liability might be reduced if VW unloads some of its brands which fall in the "nice to have" category and are non-essential or those that are unprofitable. The ultra British Bentley and the hot Italian Lamborghini and Ducati don't suit VW at all and could be easily sold. SEAT has been a constant liability and could be discontinued without consequences, if selling this brand was to prove difficult. And Bugatti is an expensive aberration that resulted from Piech's megalomania which VW could do without.

    Additionally, VW could sell part of Porsche through an IPO, similar to what FCA is doing with Ferrari.

    I am very optimistic that in 3 years time no one will care to remember EPA's malicious witch-hunt.

     

     

     

     

     


    --

     

    "Form follows function"

     


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    I certainly wouldn't hesitate to buy another Octavia - it is without doubt one of the best and most reliable daily drives I've had. It certainly isn't in the remotest way sporty but then it doesn't pretend to be. 50,000 miles and nothing, not even minor has gone wrong.


    --

    Porsche Boxster GTS Carrara white / Skoda Octavia Mk.3 daily drive


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    Same here with the Polo TSI (quality, superb DSG drivetrain and refinement beyond its price) and the two Q5 TDI (quality product, safe and relaxing). Both without problems and reasonably economical. They are superb cars for daily transport.

    Definitely much better made than the three M-B products I had before. C-class, ML and Smart.


    --

    "Form follows function"


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    I had nothing but trouble with my VW Golf, there are turds in every marque I suppose.


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    reginos:

    The latest estimates in the international Press relating to the costs to VW from the emissions affair are some €40 billion in direct costs (repairs, replacements fines, lawsuits) and another one time that amount in loss of revenues due to falling sales.

    If the above prove true then VW AG with an operating profit  of €12+ billion in 2014, will not be able to withstand without government assistance. It will be no problem for the Federal Government to intervene if the politicians evaluate that  VW falls in the "too big to fail" category. Germany has a GDP of over €14 trillion and the €80 billion which might be required is peanuts if you think that they average at €1.000 per German citizen. Besides, €80 billion is what Germany has given to Greece (so far) which we all know will never be repaid. From VW the German government might even get a profit when the company will be re-privatized in a few years time.

    The reduction in sales IMO will be temporary and it will last 2-3 years max simply because VW Group make outstanding cars. Many of those who have tried them rarely look back to other brands.

    The liability might be reduced if VW unloads some of its brands which fall in the "nice to have" category and are non-essential or those that are unprofitable. The ultra British Bentley and the hot Italian Lamborghini and Ducati don't suit VW at all and could be easily sold. SEAT has been a constant liability and could be discontinued without consequences, if selling this brand was to prove difficult. And Bugatti is an expensive aberration that resulted from Piech's megalomania which VW could do without.

    Additionally, VW could sell part of Porsche through an IPO, similar to what FCA is doing with Ferrari.

    I am very optimistic that in 3 years time no one will care to remember EPA's malicious witch-hunt.

     

     

     

     

     


    --

     

    "Form follows function"

     

    Costs relating to the Clean Air Act and the subsequent recall and legal actions will be apportioned across multiple periods; therefore, the financial impact is not an one-time expense but, instead, a reoccurring expense.  Volkswagen also has several financing mechanisms available from lines of credit to debt and equity offerings.  


    Re: VW caught cheating emissions tests

    reginos:

    I am very optimistic that in 3 years time no one will care to remember EPA's malicious witch-hunt.

     

     

     

     

     


    --

     

    "Form follows function"

     

    WTF!mail You seriously believe this is a witch hunt? VW cheated big time and they were caught. To believe the EPA is after VW is nonsense.

    I can't figure you out. Most of the time your post intelligent posts but occasionally you become a Donald Trump.Smiley


    --

    Of little, to make much: That is the dream of a human life.


     
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