Nov 18, 2017 4:26:13 PM
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Carlos from Spain
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Nov 18, 2017 5:24:21 PM
- CGX car nut
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Re: Tesla Roadster
crayphile:noone1:I bet VW or Mercedes would buy them for $10B even... Their brand alone is worth billions.
Its not the S10B that is the issue, its what needs investing after that.
If Tesla needs investing afterwards, then so does everyone else, and everyone else would already have their economies of scale ready to go.
Not wanting to invest, would imply that they don't believe anything Tesla is doing is worth investing in. I highly doubt that's true.
Also, VW just burned 30 billion dollars in fines because they didn't want to invest in better technology.
Nov 18, 2017 6:21:13 PM
- Boxster Coupe GTS
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Re: Tesla Roadster
CGX car nut:
noone1:Except Tesla's is real and already works. Lotus were just empty shells.
Then why is production two years away? If this is a completed product, Tesla could handbuild a thousand cars within two years.
One point everyone seems to agree on is that Elon Musk is quite good at marketing... 
If the Tesla Roadster was a fully functioning prototype with the specifications and performance available that were advertised at the launch party, you can be sure that there would already be a Hollywood film production showing Elon Musk in his Top Gun outfit driving along a runway in autopilot while sipping a latte at 250mph! 
The reality is that the shiny Roadster unveiled at the launch party was just a re-body of an existing Tesla model with a couple of extra batteries and different wheels and tyres. Indeed, it has been suggested that some of the early Model 3 production that didn't meet quality control standards were canibilised for the new show car... 
Any potential customer or depositor should ask when they can have a test-drive of the new Roadster on road and track and when there will be evidence that all components are capable of 250mph and that speed will be achievable on Planet Earth! 
It would be great to know that the $250 million unsecured interest-free loan from the first 1000 "founder" depositors would actually be used to develop the production version of the Roadster in time for 2020 deliveries. However, the equity and credit analysts covering Tesla have pointed out that it will more likely be used to cover less than one month of negative operating cash flow! 
The market consensus seems to be that Tesla will need to raise $3-5 billion from equity investors to maintain adequate liquidity (i.e. to remain solvent) during 2018... 
Re: Tesla Roadster
noone1:I think a good question people should ask, is if Tesla put itself up for sale for 10 billion dollars today, would there be a buyer?
I'm of the opinion that there would be.
You are ignoring the US$ 50bn of equity value... If somebody would buy for 10bn these 50bn would be a write-off 
Nov 18, 2017 6:31:58 PM
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Whoopsy
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Re: Tesla Roadster
MKSGR:noone1:I think a good question people should ask, is if Tesla put itself up for sale for 10 billion dollars today, would there be a buyer?
I'm of the opinion that there would be.
You are ignoring the US$ 50bn of equity value... If somebody would buy for 10bn these 50bn would be a write-off
I am merely talking with respect to debt. I have not much of an opinion on the equity value of Tesla other than I think that it's less than what it is now.
Most people are in two camps -- Tesla will be huge and deserve the valuation, or Tesla will be broke and is worth $0. I'm not in either of those camps. I'm of the opinion that Tesla could be wildly successful selling cars, but be worth $20B and just be less profitable than people hoped. Toyota only sells 20% more cars than GM, but it's worth 3x as much.
Nov 18, 2017 7:02:36 PM
- noone1
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Re: Tesla Roadster
CGX car nut:noone1:Except Tesla's is real and already works. Lotus were just empty shells.
Then why is production two years away? If this is a completed product, Tesla could handbuild a thousand cars within two years.
Porsche showed the 918 in 2010 and didn't show the production version until 2013. Porsche was talking deposits in 2011.
What's the problem with Tesla doing it?
Nov 18, 2017 7:06:11 PM
- noone1
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Re: Tesla Roadster
Boxster Coupe GTS:noone1:Except Tesla's is real and already works. Lotus were just empty shells.
Then why is production two years away? If this is a completed product, Tesla could handbuild a thousand cars within two years.
One point everyone seems to agree on is that Elon Musk is quite good at marketing...
If the Tesla Roadster was a fully functioning prototype with the specifications and performance available that were advertised at the launch party, you can be sure that there would already be a Hollywood film production showing Elon Musk in his Top Gun outfit driving along a runway in autopilot while sipping a latte at 250mph!
The reality is that the shiny Roadster unveiled at the launch party was just a re-body of an existing Tesla model with a couple of extra batteries and different wheels and tyres. Indeed, it has been suggested that some of the early Model 3 production that didn't meet quality control standards were canibilised for the new show car...
Any potential customer or depositor should ask when they can have a test-drive of the new Roadster on road and track and when there will be evidence that all components are capable of 250mph and that speed will be achievable on Planet Earth!
It would be great to know that the $250 million unsecured interest-free loan from the first 1000 "founder" depositors would actually be used to develop the production version of the Roadster in time for 2020 deliveries. However, the equity and credit analysts covering Tesla have pointed out that it will more likely be used to cover less than one month of negative operating cash flow!
The market consensus seems to be that Tesla will need to raise $3-5 billion from equity investors to maintain adequate liquidity (i.e. to remain solvent) during 2018...
And if that's all it takes, is that a problem? If Lamborghini gave you a ride in a Huracan prototype, would you complain that it's a hackjob R8?
Re: Tesla Roadster
http://driving.ca/tesla/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-the-inconvenient-truth-about-teslas-truck
Here is someone with enough free time on their hand to actually process what Elon claims about the big rig.
In short form, it's a pipe dream right now.
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Re: Tesla Roadster
But isn't that hat Musk has been doing all along? Takes dream and try to make them come true? He as become a billionaire doing it and single handedly revolutionized two industries... Sorry but you can criticize all you want, none of us here come close to what he has achieved...
Re: Tesla Roadster
SciFrog:But isn't that hat Musk has been doing all along? Takes dream and try to make them come true? He as become a billionaire doing it and single handedly revolutionized two industries... Sorry but you can criticize all you want, none of us here come close to what he has achieved...
You can google "Ponzi Scheme" or "Eike Batista" (to name just two search terms) to find additional background info on how the business model works 
Re: Tesla Roadster
SciFrog:But isn't that hat Musk has been doing all along? Takes dream and try to make them come true? He as become a billionaire doing it and single handedly revolutionized two industries... Sorry but you can criticize all you want, none of us here come close to what he has achieved...
No, the pipe dream part is just the target performance is a bit too ambitious optimistic. Did you read the article?
5000lb Model S needs 100kw battery just to barely do 300 miles in the real world. Takes around 45 mins for a 'full' charge, as in 80% done. And that charger puts out 120kw. The fastest charger from Tesla right now.
Currently available biggest charger puts out 600kw. But it is too dangerous for human interaction so it needed to be automated.
How big a battery can Elon put in the big rig in order to give it the range it needs for the weight class? A big rig is much less aero dynamic and heavier than a Model S. The article says it needs a 1000kw battery. I tend to think it needs at least 1500kw.
Then how big and powerful a charger will be needed to do the '30 mins' top up?
The math of what he claims just don't add up. That's all.
BTW, SpaceX wasn't a pipe dream, the science and tech of what rockets can do are well known. Anyone with enough funding can do what Space X do. Ask Bezos.
Tesla also isn't a pipe dream, we have electric golf carts for the longest time, so electric sedan is not much of a challenge. The performance claims from Elon on the other hand is a bit disconnect with real world physics and maths that's all. Elon in a way is like Ron Dennis, claiming performance numbers that the actual product cannot match.
Hell didn't he claimed the Model 3 will be massed produced by now? Did they make more than 300 cars yet? Total. Not per day.
Being in the stock trading business, I always skip over the headlines, I dig deeper into facts, raw data instead of blindly listening to PR people. And the raw data simply doesn't agree with Elon's claim atm.
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Nov 18, 2017 11:31:36 PM
- Boxster Coupe GTS
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Nov 18, 2017 11:34:24 PM
- noone1
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Nov 18, 2017 11:52:39 PM
- xander71
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Nov 19, 2017 7:43:57 AM
- Boxster Coupe GTS
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Re: Tesla Roadster
Tesla's $250 Million Interest Free Loan
At Tesla’s semi-truck announcement Elon Musk pulled a Steve Jobs saying there was one more thing, which was the company’s new Roadster. It has very impressive performance metrics going 0 to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds, 0 to 100 mph in 4.2 seconds, has a top speed of over 250 mph and has a range of 620 miles on a single charge. Since Tesla is burning through cash as it ramps the Gigafactory and the Model 3 by announcing the second version of the Roadster it will be able to generate at least $250 million more in interest free deposits.
Tesla needs the cash
Tesla had more than $3.5 billion in cash at the end of the September quarter and it used over $1.4 billion during the quarter. It is on track to use a similar amount in the December quarter, which would drop its cash to around $2 billion. Tesla will need to raise more money unless it can get the Model 3 production to ramp (which it under-delivered on in the September quarter) and do so at a decent profit (which may be more of a challenge than Musk has promised).
By offering a Founder Series version of the Roadster and asking (some could say forcing) them to fork over full payment of $250,000 Tesla will be able to generate $250 million in interest free customer deposits until at least 2020 when the car is supposed to be available.
Customers who want to order a limited edition Roadster can start with a $5,000 credit card charge but need to wire $245,000 within 10 days to insure their reservation. Hopefully for those putting down the money Tesla will come through at least close to the timeframe Musk talked about. You do have to give Musk credit for pulling this off as not many people could.
Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2017/11/18/teslas-250-million-interest-free-loan/
Re: Tesla Roadster
People who put a deposit down on the Roadster are completely aware of what they are doing, no doubt about that. They simply like what Tesla is all about and their way of changing the game in the auto industry. The car doesn't look that shabby either and the specs are difficult to ignore.
And oh, the specs we have seen so far is apparently just for the base model 
Nov 19, 2017 11:55:46 AM
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Carlos from Spain
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Re: Tesla Roadster
Yes, for that special option pack I believe its going to be 0-60mph in -1.9 seconds confirming that General Relativity does not prohibit traveling back in time, and if our great spiritual leader Musk says it, it must be true! please take my money! 
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⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS
Nov 19, 2017 2:30:28 PM
- CGX car nut
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Carlos from Spain
Nov 19, 2017 2:38:38 PM
- noone1
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Nov 19, 2017 2:58:31 PM
- Boxster Coupe GTS
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Re: Tesla Roadster
noone1:Tesla threads are just getting nuts.
You guys are comparing a $50B company that raised $10B in debt with relative ease to things like Delorean and Lotus.
The last bonds were oversubscribed by $300M BTW...
Tesla bond price in secondary trading...
Tesla bond yield in seconday trading...
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