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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    spudgun:

    Every morning I drive to work, which is electric, the engine only kicks in at 70 km/u. Now, the only place where my engine starts up (and with me, probably 90% of all the hybrids in my district) is always at the highway ramp when I go from 50 to 130 km/u on full gas. (The roads that lead to the ramp have a 50 km/u speed limit.)

    Now my question: how can that be good for these engines when they always rev to 5-6000 rpm form cold. I sometimes cringe at the revs the motor makes, seconds from being started (automatically). I change gear myself when it happens but most owners won't even bother, I suppose.

    Any insight?

    From what I have been told, starter on these hybrid is bigger because it is going on and off all the time but apart from that not that much...

    the oil is cold, the engine is cold, the water is cold so everything going straight to a 6,000rpm is bad in all possible way...


    --

    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    WSJ recently published an article touching some of the points being discussed here.   https://www.wsj.com/articles/rise-of-electric-cars-threatens-to-drain-german-growth-11565861401

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    spudgun:

    I'm puzzled by something with my X5 hybrid, which can be applied to all hybrids. Maybe some knowledgeable people on this board can chime in?

    Every morning I drive to work, which is electric, the engine only kicks in at 70 km/u. Now, the only place where my engine starts up (and with me, probably 90% of all the hybrids in my district) is always at the highway ramp when I go from 50 to 130 km/u on full gas. (The roads that lead to the ramp have a 50 km/u speed limit.)

    Now my question: how can that be good for these engines when they always rev to 5-6000 rpm form cold. I sometimes cringe at the revs the motor makes, seconds from being started (automatically). I change gear myself when it happens but most owners won't even bother, I suppose.

    Any insight?


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    997.2 4S / BMW X5 40e / Donkervoort GT 

     

    I raised that question to Porsche's 919 team before. I was told firstly there is a oil film residue on the surface to help with initial lubrication, and the oil pump catch up very quickly to provide oil supply. Also, the ECU pumped extra fuel to cool the combustion a bit then lean it back out for normal operation. The radiator will also be bypassed to get the water up to temperature quicker. And the temperature really do come up VERY quickly. From about 15-20 degrees ambient, it takes ~2mins for the water temp to get up to around 60ish 70.


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Thanks, very good info kiss


    --

    997.2 4S / BMW X5 40e / Donkervoort GT 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    the-missile:
    spudgun:

    Every morning I drive to work, which is electric, the engine only kicks in at 70 km/u. Now, the only place where my engine starts up (and with me, probably 90% of all the hybrids in my district) is always at the highway ramp when I go from 50 to 130 km/u on full gas. (The roads that lead to the ramp have a 50 km/u speed limit.)

    Now my question: how can that be good for these engines when they always rev to 5-6000 rpm form cold. I sometimes cringe at the revs the motor makes, seconds from being started (automatically). I change gear myself when it happens but most owners won't even bother, I suppose.

    Any insight?

    From what I have been told, starter on these hybrid is bigger because it is going on and off all the time but apart from that not that much...

    the oil is cold, the engine is cold, the water is cold so everything going straight to a 6,000rpm is bad in all possible way...

    I guess the insight is that you probably only own/rent(lease) the car for 3-4 years and probably within 12 years the car is no longer on the road. They don't care anymore. 


    --

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    How cool is this...

    https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124478_world-s-largest-ev-never-has-to-be-recharged

    The dump truck, at 45 tons, ascends the 13-percent grade and takes on 65 tons of ore. With more than double the weight going back down the hill, the beast's regenerative braking system recaptures more than enough energy to refill the charge the eDumper used going up.

    ...

    Marking that trip around 20 times a day, Kuhn Schweitz says the eDumper produces 200 kwh of surplus energy every day, or 77 megawatt-hours a year. A typical dump truck uses between 11,000 and 22,000 gallons of diesel fuel a year. That saves up to 196 metric tons of global-warming carbon-dioxide gas a year.


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    In this application the provided battery pack is actually too large... extra mass and expense...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I talked to the gut from  abig company that are placing teslas in Italy, 

    he did the following comment.

    1) the big phone companies like ericsson, motorola, nokia that did dominate the beginning of the cell phone are now no players ..they are almost dissapered

    2) the one producing horse carriage...did dissaper when cars came out

    3) the biggest company producing typewriter...dissapred..and so one...looks like that in China the EV cars producers which did not exist 10 years ago are alresy bigger than many car industries....and so one

    Probably the old car inustries will not be able to catch up and dissaper???? could be


    --

    993 c2


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    xander71:

    I talked to the gut from  abig company that are placing teslas in Italy, 

    he did the following comment.

    1) the big phone companies like ericsson, motorola, nokia that did dominate the beginning of the cell phone are now no players ..they are almost dissapered

    2) the one producing horse carriage...did dissaper when cars came out

    3) the biggest company producing typewriter...dissapred..and so one...looks like that in China the EV cars producers which did not exist 10 years ago are alresy bigger than many car industries....and so one

    Probably the old car inustries will not be able to catch up and dissaper???? could be

    I doubt it. Maybe some manufacturers but certainly not the major ones. They sit on tons of cash and already started development of EVs and other tech. I am more worried about smaller companies or companies which don't have a good financial situation.

    It is interesting to mention that Lamborghini for example decided to build combustion engines only (with the help of some mild hybrid tech at some point) for the next 10 years. Don't forget that VW Group is behind Lamborghini.

    VW Group can adapt easily, they have the resources and the money. Others? I don't know.


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Lamborghini Huracan Performante (2019), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mercedes C63 S AMG Cab (2019), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    lambo is mickey mouse production unit so they will get waiver but up to a certain date.

    other are huge production number manufacturers and they will have to adapt to regulation, propose different type of product, adapt or die.


    --

    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    xander71:

    I talked to the gut from  abig company that are placing teslas in Italy, 

    he did the following comment.

    1) the big phone companies like ericsson, motorola, nokia that did dominate the beginning of the cell phone are now no players ..they are almost dissapered

    2) the one producing horse carriage...did dissaper when cars came out

    3) the biggest company producing typewriter...dissapred..and so one...looks like that in China the EV cars producers which did not exist 10 years ago are alresy bigger than many car industries....and so one

    Probably the old car inustries will not be able to catch up and dissaper???? could be

    This is true for the companies that are not willing or able to adapt to the new world around them. Also there is the theory of the disadvantageous pioneer; Tesla is the pioneer here that disrupts the market, but all their competitors are able to learn from them and implement this new technology with these lessons learnt in mind and with the latest tech. 
    What we are seeing is that all car manufacturers do realize that they need to adapt, and they are catching up rapidly, with all their budget and large numbers economy behind them. It took them a while, but it seems they learnt from Tesla how to make hybrids/EVs "cool", and now they know how, the market will be flooded soon.


    --


    Porsche, separates Le Mans from Le Boys


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    the-missile:

    lambo is mickey mouse production unit so they will get waiver but up to a certain date.

    I think the waiver is already expiring in 2020 as far as I heard (or was it 2021? Smiley). After that, no real waiver anymore as far as I heard.

    other are huge production number manufacturers and they will have to adapt to regulation, propose different type of product, adapt or die.

    Yep, big issue but VW Group sits on a lot of cash and other assets, I wouldn't worry too much about them (for now).


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Lamborghini Huracan Performante (2019), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mercedes C63 S AMG Cab (2019), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Joost:
    xander71:

    I talked to the gut from  abig company that are placing teslas in Italy, 

    he did the following comment.

    1) the big phone companies like ericsson, motorola, nokia that did dominate the beginning of the cell phone are now no players ..they are almost dissapered

    2) the one producing horse carriage...did dissaper when cars came out

    3) the biggest company producing typewriter...dissapred..and so one...looks like that in China the EV cars producers which did not exist 10 years ago are alresy bigger than many car industries....and so one

    Probably the old car inustries will not be able to catch up and dissaper???? could be

    This is true for the companies that are not willing or able to adapt to the new world around them. Also there is the theory of the disadvantageous pioneer; Tesla is the pioneer here that disrupts the market, but all their competitors are able to learn from them and implement this new technology with these lessons learnt in mind and with the latest tech. 
    What we are seeing is that all car manufacturers do realize that they need to adapt, and they are catching up rapidly, with all their budget and large numbers economy behind them. It took them a while, but it seems they learnt from Tesla how to make hybrids/EVs "cool", and now they know how, the market will be flooded soon.

     

    Car industry is a long term thing. Like a long marathon instead of a sprint.

    Like a standing mile drag race. Teslas maybe able to get ahead at the start, like the current EV market where they get a head start. But the other companies have resources Tesla can only dream about and at the end of the mile, I will not bet on Tesla winning the drag race. 

    Technology research is basically a man-hour thing. One either throw more hours or more men into it. A head start is nothing if one cannot keep the lead. Other car companies may not have the hours but they certainly have more money to hire more man to catch up and pass the leader. 


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Interesting review video of the Audi e-tron debut in New Zealand.  Especially nice is the scandinavian flick at the end of the video:  https://insideevs.com/reviews/365906/audi-e-tron-review-short-concise/

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    A. B. Bernstein analysis indicating Audi and Jaguar taking sales away from Tesla Model S/X especially in Europe.  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/top-tech-analyst-says-electric-vehicles-from-jaguar-and-audi-are-stealing-market-share-from-tesla.html


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Of course they're stealing market share--a single sale where before were none is taking market share.

    Here's an article showing they're struggling against Tesla in the U.S.

    https://marketrealist.com/2019/08/tesla-luxury-car-makers-hard-time/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&yptr=yahoo


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Latest credit ratings report from Moody's...

    Moody's affirms Tesla B3 corporate family and Caa1 senior unsecured ratings; outlook is stable

    Global Credit Research - 20 Aug 2019

    New York, August 20, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") affirmed Tesla, Inc.'s ratings including the B3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and Caa1 senior unsecured ratings, and changed the speculative grade liquidity rating to SGL-3 from SGL-4. The outlook changed to stable from negative.

    RATINGS RATIONALE

    Tesla's B3 CFR reflects its achievement of scale production of the Model 3 after struggling with significant manufacturing and assembly hurdles. As Model 3 output is now in line with Moody's earlier expectations the company should be able to achieve production efficiencies, lower costs, and strengthen automotive gross margins. This progress will be necessary if Tesla's automotive sales are to offset the sizable losses generated by the automotive service operations, and enable it to sustain net profitability. An important contributor to achieving net profit will be the sale of regulatory credits, which represent no incremental cost to the company and fall directly to earnings. We expect these sales, which accounted for over $400 million in revenues/earnings during 2018, will continue to grow as emission regulations become more restrictive in all major markets.

    Moreover, Tesla's increased experience with its production processes have significantly reduced the level of capital expenditures needed to support its growth plans, with annual capex falling from approximately $4 billion in 2017 to a current run rate of $1.5 to $2 billion, thus providing a significant boost to expected cash flow.

    Nonetheless, Moody's still expects the company to generate modestly negative free cash flow during the coming twelve months, probably in the area of $500 million.

    Finally, Tesla's liquidity position is now adequate, reflected by the SGL-3. Its $5 billion cash position will afford an important cushion to meet maturing debt obligations through 2021 and to contend with the operational challenges it will face during the coming year.

    These challenges include:

    1) improving the gross margin of its automotive operations while containing the losses in its solar and auto service businesses;

    2) effectively executing the rapid expansion into Europe, where demand seems sound;

    3) contending with ongoing US-China trade tensions as the company builds out the Shanghai production facility and launches the Chinese-market Model 3; and,

    4) contending with the coming launch of more competitive battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from global automotive competitors.

    The stable outlook anticipates that improving operating efficiencies of the Model 3, growing regulatory credit sales, and an adequate liquidity position will provide a sufficient runway to continue undertaking cost cutting initiatives that will improve profitability in the face of aggressive expansion plans.

    Environmental, social and governance factors are important elements of Tesla's credit profile. The company's commitment to BEVs, backup battery power storage, and solar power generation provide a strong basis of environmental and social responsibility. Moreover, its ability to generate earnings from the sale of regulatory credits afford it a significant financial benefit.

    However, Tesla faces important corporate governance challenges. There has been significant turnover at the senior management ranks, including the recent stepping aside of the company's co-founder from day-to-day activities. Actions by Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, have resulted in conflict with, and intervention by, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and have also contributed to periods of undue confusion within the capital markets regarding Tesla's operational and financial strategy. In addition, Mr Musk's executive responsibilities with outside ventures such as SpaceX could tax his ability to adequately focus on Tesla's considerable challenges. Tesla's board of directors has not demonstrated meaningful oversight over the CEO's activities, and there are board members who have close personal ties to Mr Musk. During 2018 a new chairperson was appointed and two additional board members were added. Nonetheless, Tesla retains a very weak corporate governance structure.

    Tesla has an adequate liquidity profile supported primarily by its $5 billion cash position. After giving consideration for approximately $1 billion in cash needed to fund normal ongoing operations, and $566 million to cover a November 2019 convertible note maturity, Tesla has incremental liquidity of approximately $3.4 billion. This affords the company an important cushion to contend with potential stress arising from softness in US demand, operational challenges accompanying its European and Chinese expansion plans, and the time that will be necessary to implement additional efficiency-enhancing initiatives.

    The rating could be upgraded if Tesla is able to demonstrate sustained profitability and positive free cash flow in the face of rapid expansion plans in Europe and China. The company would also need to maintain an adequate liquidity profile to support a higher rating.

    The rating could be lowered if demand for its BEVs begins to soften in the US, or if the company falters in implementing its European or China expansion initiatives.

    The rating could also be lowered if the company cannot remain on a clear path to strengthening margins in the automotive operations and narrowing losses in its service business.

    The principal methodology used in these ratings was Automobile Manufacturer Industry published in June 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

    Upgrades:

    ..Issuer: Tesla, Inc.

    .... Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating, Upgraded to SGL-3 from SGL-4

    Affirmations:

    ..Issuer: Tesla, Inc.

    .... Probability of Default Rating, Affirmed B3-PD

    .... Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed B3

    ....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Caa1 (LGD4)

    Outlook Actions:

    ..Issuer: Tesla, Inc.

    ....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative

    Source: Moody's

    1566411885075image.jpeg

    ...seems to leave many open questions?Smiley 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    waiting for PDK:

    Of course they're stealing market share--a single sale where before were none is taking market share.

    Here's an article showing they're struggling against Tesla in the U.S.

    https://marketrealist.com/2019/08/tesla-luxury-car-makers-hard-time/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&yptr=yahoo

     

    e-Tron and i-Pace are new to market, of course they can't quite match the numbers from Model S/X.

    The key point is that while EV market is growing, it is not growing as fast as Tesla bulls have hoped or predicted. Tesla is losing market share in growing market segment, that's a fact.

    Audi and Jaguar stole ~4000 sales from Tesla already with the e-Tron and iPace. It had already lost ~20,000 sales for the coming year due to people jumping ship and pre-ordering of the Taycan, Porsche have already stated that the majority of the clients that have a deposit on the Taycan are from other brands, and Tesla is the only other brand that have a premium EV offering. 

    Heck, I bought a Audi -eTron over a equivalent Tesla Model X. That's another sale lost to the competition by Tesla. Actually 3 more, as 3 of my friends did the same thing, they were looking into getting a Model X but when they saw my e-Tron in person, everyone is blown away by how much better the car is and how much cheaper it is compared to the Model X. 


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    waiting for PDK:

    Of course they're stealing market share--a single sale where before were none is taking market share.

    Here's an article showing they're struggling against Tesla in the U.S.

    https://marketrealist.com/2019/08/tesla-luxury-car-makers-hard-time/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&yptr=yahoo

     

    e-Tron and i-Pace are new to market, of course they can't quite match the numbers from Model S/X.

    The key point is that while EV market is growing, it is not growing as fast as Tesla bulls have hoped or predicted. Tesla is losing market share in growing market segment, that's a fact.

    Audi and Jaguar stole ~4000 sales from Tesla already with the e-Tron and iPace. It had already lost ~20,000 sales for the coming year due to people jumping ship and pre-ordering of the Taycan, Porsche have already stated that the majority of the clients that have a deposit on the Taycan are from other brands, and Tesla is the only other brand that have a premium EV offering. 

    Heck, I bought a Audi -eTron over a equivalent Tesla Model X. That's another sale lost to the competition by Tesla. Actually 3 more, as 3 of my friends did the same thing, they were looking into getting a Model X but when they saw my e-Tron in person, everyone is blown away by how much better the car is and how much cheaper it is compared to the Model X. 

    Tesla has had the sizable advantage of brand recognition in the EV space, starting with the Model S starting in 2012.  Now seven years later Jaguar and Audi, with Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen near launches of new EV product, are growing sales at a faster pace than the overall EV market growth.  That additional growth is coming out of Tesla's near decade long dominance.  

    Tesla's advantages are quickly being whittled away as Electrify America, and Ionity in the EU, are quickly installing new high output charging stations against Tesla's highly-vaunted Supercharger network.  At last count, and this has only been since the beginning of 2019, Electrify America is on schedule to have 480 chargers in operation at the the end of the year.  This is roughly one-third the number of Tesla Superchargers installed in the U.S. plus the higher output Electrify America chargers outnumber the equivalent higher output Supercharger units.  

    The major also have a well-developed dealer and service model that Tesla owners can only dream about.  It is highly unlikely that repairs of even Jaguars will take anywhere as long as what is reported for Tesla owners.  There are still tangible advantages to the traditional dealer network even for EV owners.  

    Finally, last week's announcement, for buyers in the States, that the Audi e-tron was the first EV to be awarded the IIHS' Top Pick+ rating for 2019.  Many purchasers make decisions based on these ratings and those of Consumer Reports.  I must admit that I do not know if, beyond, NCAP, if there are similar organizations in the EU.  A few of the Tesla base thought it unfair that Audi was awarded this rating when no Tesla was test.  Of course, Tesla can always pay for the IIHS to perform the same series of tests.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Wonder if Moody’s would have issued this report if the Walmart suing Tesla over defective solar panels story was made public a couple of days ago.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    $5.5 Million Order For 100 Tesla Model 3s Falls Through Over Quality Issues



    A huge deal between German rental company NextMove, who wanted to add 100 Model 3s to its fleet, and Tesla fell through after the former was displeased with the quality of the cars.

    NextMove placed the 5-million-euro ($5.5 million) order order back in 2018, but after taking delivery of the first 15 Model 3s earlier this year had issues with their quality. The two companies discussed how to fix them, but apparently didn’t come to an agreement.


    NextMove claims that the 15 Model 3s it took delivery came with paint defects, faulty wiring, scratches on the dash, condensation in the headlights and more. A dispute followed between the two on how to fix those shortcomings, with the rental company claiming that Tesla set a “24-hour ultimatum”, triggering a refund clause.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    It appears that NextMove might get labeled as being anti-Tesla..... Tesla might survive but just like any other American company  but their quality issues and lack of parts simply won't  cut it.

    Personally, when the Japanesel introduce their electric cars, I would be more confident in electric cars to be good enough for the long term. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Vanity Fair on Musk and SolarCity: “He’s full of shit!”  https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/how-elon-musk-gambled-tesla-to-save-solarcity. Hope this article is not geographically restricted because it is a must read for Musk friend or foe.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    From Forbes today:

     

    NTSB Report On Tesla Autopilot Accident Shows What's Inside And It's Not Pretty For FSD

    Sep 6, 2019,

    Transportation

    I cover robocar technology & previously worked on Google's car team.

    The Tesla Model S after hitting the fire truck. The driver walked away, fortunately

    The Tesla Model S after hitting the fire truck. The driver walked away, fortunately

    NTSB

    It seems the world picks on Tesla for crashes, and the release of the NTSB report on a January 2019 Model S Autopilot crash has generated lots of commentary and analysis.

    We pick on Tesla because Autopilot is out there driving far more miles than other systems, and it’s an incomplete driver assist system being monitored by ordinary drivers, so it’s going to have a lot more crashes. As a driver assist system, fault for most of these crashes still lies with the supervising driver, but ever since Tesla declared that Autopilot is on the cusp of morphing into a “full self driving” product of some type later this year, it’s been naturally to examine the sort of mistakes it’s making. Tesla Full Self Driving will be a new system, but it will almost surely use most of the core components found in Autopilot. How those components perform, and how well Tesla improves them, are areas of serious inquiry.

    When the NTSB gets involved — as it has in several Tesla crashes — we get a window into the internals of these crashes we don’t otherwise get. Because of NTSB rules, Tesla is not allowed to talk until the investigation is over, and the investigations into fatalities are involved and still going on. This crash did not involve injuries, but did involve the model S crashing into the back of a parked fire truck that was deliberately blocking the left (carpool) lane to allow crews to help a victim of a motorcycle accident in safety.

    This is a scary situation for all vehicles. The fire truck was deliberately stopped in the lane. It angled itself slightly so it would not look like it was actually using the lane, making it clear, to humans at least, that it was deliberately closing the lane. Even so, the Tesla found itself following another vehicle which blocked the Tesla’s view of the situation. That leading car, seeing the fire truck, changed quickly into the lane to the right as expected — suddenly revealing the parked fire truck situation with about 4 seconds to act.

    The Tesla Autopilot and its driver did not react until about 0.5 seconds before the crash. Or rather, it reacted in the worst way, by speeding up. Fortunately it was going only 20mph in the traffic jam, and only got up to 30mph before hitting the truck.

    Teslas, and systems like them, have problems with vehicles stopped on the road ahead of them, especially when they are revealed with little warning. They have this problem for a few reasons:

    As such, when the lead car veered off, the Tesla decided that now the lane in front of it was suddenly wide open. It calculated there was nobody in front for 120 meters and it should immediately speed up. (I think that Tesla’s TACC is a little too eager about that in general. This also happened in the tragic fatality in Silicon Valley.)

    As it sped up, it finally detected that the truck was there. New interpretation of the camera and radar data made it decide that the radar return from the truck it had been deciding was not really there was something to worry about. It issued the “forward collision warning” beeps to the driver, who did not react. The Automatic Emergency Braking did not activate yet — it usually gives the driver some time to react first.

    Wham.

    There’s also speculation about what the driver was doing. The driver understood Autopilot. There are accusations that the driver was distracted, possibly looking at a phone, and not looking up in the seconds leading to the crash, according to a witness in the next lane. Clearly, the driver didn’t do his job here.

    The report also contains the now very common incorrect interpretation of Tesla’s system to detect hands on the wheel, making claims that “The system detected driver’s hands on the steering wheel for only 78 seconds out of 29 minutes and 4 seconds during which the Autopilot was active.”

    Tesla does not have a system to detect hands on the wheel. Instead it detects the application of modest steering force on the wheel. You can, and many drivers do, keep their hands on the wheel without applying steering force. They may only briefly apply some force every so often to keep Tesla’s system happy and avoid the warnings. This is not at all out of the ordinary. The driver was holding the wheel, he says, in what might be deemed a fairly light way, with hand resting on his knee and holding the wheel to be able to torque it from time to time. This is not what one would normally recommend as a “ready to grab” position, but it is what some people do.

    I’ve noticed a disturbing pattern in these incorrect reports about whether a driver had his or her hands on the wheel of a Tesla. I have to wonder why Tesla doesn’t correct this error. The cynic in me wonders if they might like the error, because it makes the drivers who have crashes sound more negligent than they may have been.

    That said, there have been calls for Tesla to improve their system of assuring driver attention, as other carmakers have done. This could include using the internal camera to track the gaze of the driver, and know when they have not looked at the road for too long, which is again something others have done.

    Conclusions

    Stopped vehicles continue to be a problem for systems based only on camera+radar. LIDAR easily solves this problem. Maps can also assist greatly with this problem, by telling you the places where fixed objects will produce radar returns that look like stopped vehicles. Tesla avoids both technologies. They believe they will produce computer vision systems using their new hardware that can calculate how far away everything is in a camera image by understanding the image. At present this is not reliable.

    This is not the first Autopilot crash in this precise situation — you’re following a car which veers to the right, revealing something ahead on the road — the thing that caused it to veer. Tesla knows about this and is not making enough progress. In addition to the obvious steps of improving perception, Tesla could decide to treat the “car I am following suddenly veers away” as a special caution situation. To not accelerate quickly in that situation. To pay more attention to radar returns from stopped objects in that situation. To be cautious about conclusions that the road ahead is suddenly clear when the traffic is actually thick. Perhaps even leave it to the human to accelerate in that situation.

    Their Full Self Drive system will have better perception and more compute power. But it won’t have better sensors and they say it won’t have maps. They have said they will shortly have a driver-monitored full self-drive system soon (and it is rumored to be in their version 10 software release.) They have also said it won’t need (in a technical, not regulatory sense) that driver monitoring next year. The signs don’t point to this.

    I founded ClariNet, the world's first internet based business, amChairman Emeritus of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, and a directorof the Foresight Institute. My…Read More


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Elon's tweets aimed at Porsche the last few days made me chuckle.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    vantagesc:

    Elon's tweets aimed at Porsche the last few days made me chuckle.  

    Probably made from a smoke filled room with lava lamps and sitar music playing in the background.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster


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    2018 White 911 GT3


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    According to [1] new car registrations in Germany for Jan-Aug compared to 2018 [2]: Audi -4.9%, VW -6.7% , Porsche -18%, Tesla +412%

    [1]  https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/verkehr/neuzulassungen-august-2019-marken/
    [2] it's not entirely clear from the article if they meant 2018, but anything else doesn't make sense in that context


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    One would hope that a new product range for a niche producer would lead to an increase in sales.  By the same measure, U.S. Audi sales for August 2019 were up 3%.  However, compared with August 2018 sales, A6 sales were up 754% and A8 were up 413%.  What is missing is that last August 2018 was the run down on inventory for the previous generation and sales were extremely low while consumers waited for the new cars to arrive.  Of course, Audi being Audi in the post-dieselgate world, the company was late to market and the cars arrived earlier this year.  


     
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