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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Whoopsy:

    How is this for stark contrast? between Elon's 2 companies, SpaceX and Tesla.

    One can almost do no wrong, and mostly universally loved. That last SpaceX launch is quite something.

    Perhaps it was because SpaceX is privately held, Elon doesn't need come out now and then to say something to prop up the stock price. It can focus more on what it CAN do.

    Tesla on the other hand is quite almost like choosing a political party in the USA, there is almost no middle ground. Either one is a blind fanatic or one is a blind skeptic. 

    Perhaps Tesla might work better if Elon take it private, away from the public eye so Elon doesn't have to talk big about it every 3 months. 

    SpaceX has a real management team with Musk pushed off to a honorary position within the company.   SpaceX has definitely advanced rocket technology, but many of the core technologies, for example, supersonic retropropulsion, are NASA developed concepts.  NASA, like numerous other federal agencies, needs a massive restructuring.

     

     

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Trump cann always buy up SpaceX to replace NASA.............

     


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Whoopsy:

    Trump cann always buy up SpaceX to replace NASA.............

     

    Given the current state of our federal government, it wouldn’t be prudent.  Instead of benefiting peoplekind, it would descend into bureaucratic hell.  


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    CGX car nut:
    Whoopsy:

    Trump cann always buy up SpaceX to replace NASA.............

     

    Given the current state of our federal government, it wouldn’t be prudent.  Instead of benefiting peoplekind, it would descend into bureaucratic hell.  

     

    Please don't tell me you have been reading news from Canada. Are you also those that wasn't included in Facebook's 51 different genders?


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Whoopsy:
    CGX car nut:
    Whoopsy:

    Trump cann always buy up SpaceX to replace NASA.............

     

    Given the current state of our federal government, it wouldn’t be prudent.  Instead of benefiting peoplekind, it would descend into bureaucratic hell.  

     

    Please don't tell me you have been reading news from Canada. Are you also those that wasn't included in Facebook's 51 different genders?

    Surprised that your country’s news is broadcast below the 49th parallel?  Being an anti-science conservative, I still believe in only two genders with the infinitesimally small group of intersex individuals.  



    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Leawood911:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/ark-chief-catherine-wood-sees-tesla-stock-going-to-4000.html?recirc=taboolainternal

    $4000 - that is DOLLARS.  I certainly would not short it.

    It’s 1999 all over again!   Is she the new Jack Grubman or Henry Blodget?


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Leawood911:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/ark-chief-catherine-wood-sees-tesla-stock-going-to-4000.html?recirc=taboolainternal

    $4000 - that is DOLLARS.  I certainly would not short it.

     

    I would love to see her put the money where her mouth is, daring her to hold TSLA till $4000. 


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    I’m just the messenger. Thought it was on-topic. That’s all. It amused me to be on-topic. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Tesla Motors Inc 2017 Q4 Financial Results...

    "Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2017 Update" (Text from Press Release)

        Record Model S and Model X deliveries in Q4 2017

        Cash balance of $3.4B entering Q1 2018

        2017 revenue of $11.8B, up 55% y-o-y from organic growth

        2018 revenue growth expected to significantly exceed 2017 growth

        Continuing to target Model 3 production rate of 5,000/wk by Q2 end

    2017 was an important year in Tesla’s history. Among other things, we started delivering Model 3 to customers, unveiled the Semi and the next-generation Roadster, installed the world’s largest battery in Australia, and had record vehicle production and deliveries of Model S and Model X. We also learned many lessons from the slower than planned production ramp of Model 3. All of this sets the stage for 2018 to be a transformative year for us.

    At some point in 2018, we expect to begin generating positive quarterly operating income on a sustained basis. With the planned ramp of both Model 3 and our energy storage products, our rate of revenue growth this year is poised to significantly exceed last year’s growth rate. The launch of Model 3 is what Tesla had been building towards from day one. We incorporated all the learnings from the development and production of Roadster, Model S, and Model X to create the world’s first mass market electric vehicle that is priced on par with its gasoline-powered equivalents – even without incentives. Now we are ramping up production significantly, and as we look ahead in 2018, we are on the cusp of a step change in the world’s transition to sustainability.

    ADVANCING SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT

    We continue to target weekly Model 3 production rates of 2,500 by the end of Q1 and 5,000 by the end of Q2. It is important to note that while these are the levels we are focused on hitting and we have plans in place to achieve them, our prior experience on the Model 3 ramp has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time. What we can say with confidence is that we are taking many actions to systematically address bottlenecks and add capacity in places like the battery module line where we have experienced constraints, and these actions should result in our production rate significantly increasing during the rest of Q1 and through Q2.

    Our goal is to become the best manufacturer in the automotive industry, and having cutting edge robotic expertise in-house is at the core of that goal. Our recent acquisitions of advanced automation companies have added to our talent base and are helping us increase Model 3 production rates more effectively. We don’t want to simply replicate what we have built previously while designing additional capacity. We want to continuously push the boundaries of mass manufacturing.

    As we shared previously, in order to incorporate our learnings and be capital efficient, we intend to start adding enough capacity to get to a 10,000 unit weekly rate for Model 3 once we have first hit the 5,000 per week milestone.

    Despite the delays that we experienced in our production ramp, Model 3 net reservations remained stable in Q4. In recent weeks, they have continued to grow as Model 3 has arrived in select Tesla stores and received numerous positive reviews, including Automobile Magazine’s 2018 Design of the Year award. We want to thank both our Model 3 suppliers and our customers, who have continued to be such great partners and advocates, while patiently waiting as the ramp continues to accelerate.

    In Q4, we delivered 28,425 Model S and Model X vehicles and 1,542 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 29,967 deliveries. Combined Model S and Model X deliveries in Q4 grew 10% globally compared to our prior record in Q3, and they grew 28% compared to Q4 2016. As we indicated heading into Q4, production of Model S and Model X during the quarter was limited to 22,137 vehicles due to reallocation of some of the manufacturing resources to Model 3 production. This enabled us to reduce our finished-goods inventory to the lowest level in about 18 months.

    Combined Model S and Model X net orders in Q4 were just shy of Q3’s all-time high. Importantly, combined orders for Model S and Model X grew significantly in 2017 compared to 2016. There had initially been concerns about whether Model 3 would cannibalize Model S and Model X. It seems the opposite is true. In stores where Model 3 is on display, customer foot traffic has increased considerably and orders for Model S and Model X have in fact increased. There has been an even bigger increase in solar and Powerwall sales.

    The upcoming autonomous coast-to-coast drive will showcase a major leap forward for our self-driving technology. Additionally, an extensive overhaul of the underlying architecture of our software has now been completed, which has enabled a step-change improvement in the collection and analysis of data and fundamentally enhanced its machine learning capabilities. Our neural net, which expands as our customer fleet grows, is able to collect and analyze more high-quality data than ever before, enabling us to rollout a series of new Autopilot features in 2018 and beyond.

    During Q4, we opened 12 new store and service locations resulting in 330 total locations worldwide at the end of the year. Service capacity more than doubled in 2017, partially due to new locations, but also through a 50% increase in productivity of existing service locations, as well as the significant expansion of our Mobile Service fleet, which now has 230 vehicles. We strive to create the best car ownership experience on the planet, and a big part of that is through not requiring customers to come in to service their vehicle. In North America alone, Mobile Service is now completing 30% of all service jobs, allowing those customers to never have to leave their home or office to get their cars serviced. Not surprisingly, Mobile Service has achieved customer satisfaction that averages 98%. In addition, the cost of servicing with our Mobile Service fleet is significantly lower than from our service centers. It now covers all of North America and provides a level of convenience and a speed for scaling that is unique and unprecedented in the industry. In 2018, we will continue to increase our service capacity with the goal of always remaining ahead of the Model 3 ramp.

    Our Supercharger network has seen the most significant growth yet. In 2017, 338 new locations opened for a total of 1,128 Supercharger stations globally. Between Supercharger and Destination Charging, we increased capacity by over 90%. In preparation for Model 3, we opened several large Supercharger stations along our most popular corridors, including between Los Angeles and San Francisco and between Los Angeles and Las Vegas, both of which have a customer lounge, a café, a display of our energy products and 40 charging stalls. With continued emphasis on convenient, reliable, and ubiquitous charging, 2018 will be another big year for Tesla charging infrastructure.

    The unveiling of Tesla Semi on November 16 launched Tesla into a new product category that will have a transformative impact due to a total cost of ownership that is superior to diesel trucks. Tesla Semi combines a real-world range of up to 500 miles with unprecedented performance while pulling a standard payload. Its distinctive torque enables smooth acceleration to highway speed even when fully loaded with cargo. Moreover, it has been designed to dramatically improve safety not only for the driver and cargo, but also for pedestrians and other cars on the road.

    Tesla will be the first Semi customer. We plan to use the Tesla Semi for our own logistics by transporting Model 3 components from Gigafactory 1 to Fremont. Additionally, our initial fleet customers who placed reservations for the Tesla Semi have been helping us develop the best possible truck.

    Also, after developing it in stealth with a very small team, we were thrilled to surprise everyone with the next-generation Roadster. Roadster was at the genesis of Tesla, a car that proved electric vehicles can be fast, exciting and here to stay. The new Roadster takes this concept to the next level. With 0-60 mph acceleration of 1.9 seconds and maximum speed of more than 250 mph, it will be the fastest car in the world. When that performance is combined with its 620 miles (1,000 km) of range, this supercar puts to rest any debate about the limitations of electric vehicles.

    ADVANCING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

    2018 will see major growth in Tesla energy storage deployments, as the production ramp of our storage products is just as steep as with Model 3. This year, we aim to deploy at least three times the storage capacity we deployed in 2017.

    On December 1, 2017, installation of the largest battery in the world was completed ahead of schedule in South Australia. This project is already generating substantial benefit by meeting high summer demand when supply is limited and by instantaneously responding to unplanned interruptions or frequency drops in the grid. Due to the success of this project, we're seeing an increase in demand for Powerpack, our commercial energy storage product. With more electric utilities and governments around the world recognizing the reliability, environmental, and economic benefits of this product, it’s clear that there is a huge opportunity for us in large scale energy storage.

    Powerwall demand for home energy storage remains exceptionally high, with orders consistently above production levels. We are increasingly promoting our energy products in Tesla stores and in non-Tesla retail locations. There is a significant cross-selling potential between Powerwall and our solar products, as evidenced by the fact that a vast majority of the customers who have ordered Solar Roof have also ordered at least one Powerwall.

    In Q4, we deployed 143 MWh of energy storage products, growing 45% from Q4 2016. Deployment of 129 MWh of energy storage in South Australia will be recognized in Q1 2018 based on commercial transfer of the site to the customer.

    We also deployed 87 MW of energy generation systems in Q4, which is 20% less than Q3 2017. Solar MW deployed declined as volumes continue to be impacted by our decision to close certain sales channels earlier this year and to focus on projects with better margins. In addition, solar deployments were affected by the short supply of Powerwalls for customers who wanted solar plus Powerwall in their house. While volumes may continue to be impacted by these factors over the near-term, we expect growth to resume later this year.

    We continue to ramp energy sales in Tesla retail stores and are expanding our presence in partner locations. The mix of our residential solar sales continues to shift towards cash and loan as compared to leasing, reaching 54% of total residential solar sales in Q4, up from 25% in Q4 2016. This has contributed to improved cash performance of this business.

    Initial production of Solar Roof at the Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo started in Q4, and we are ahead of schedule with the hiring targets we’ve agreed to with the state of New York. As Solar Roof is truly the first-of-its-kind and there is significant complexity in both its manufacturing and installation, we are deliberately ramping production at a gradual pace. When fully scaled, Gigafactory 2 will be able to produce enough solar cells to add more than 150,000 new residential solar installations every year. As we ramp production, a portion of the output will be dedicated for Solar Roof tiles with the balance used in our proprietary high-efficiency retrofit solar panels. With demand outpacing production, we expect our backlog to remain in excess of one year for the next several quarters.

    Q4 2017 RESULTS Revenue & Gross Margin

    [See Table]

        Automotive revenue in Q4 increased by 36% over Q4 2016, mainly due to 35% growth in vehicle deliveries. For 2017, Automotive revenue was up 52% from 2016. ZEV credit sales in Q4 were $179 million as compared to $20 million in Q4 2016.

        Approximately 23% of Q4 deliveries were subject to lease accounting, which was slightly higher than in Q3. Last week, we closed a $546 million asset backed securitization (ABS) of our Model S and X lease portfolio, which was our first such offering. This transaction and future ones like it will free up significant leasing capacity for long-term growth.

        GAAP Automotive gross margin improved slightly compared to Q3 to 18.9%. Non-GAAP Automotive gross margin declined to 13.8% in Q4, which was below our expectations. This is more than fully explained by the slower than expected ramp of Model 3. Since Model 3 production was in the early stages of the ramp, allocation of full operating costs and depreciation made its gross margin negative. We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1, while generating positive operating cash flows.

        Model S and Model X gross margin in Q4 declined very slightly compared to Q3. This was primarily due to significant reserves booked for fixed assets that are no longer in service. We expect Model S and Model X gross margins to increase in 2018 with improved trim mix and option content, lower cost of acquisition and lower manufacturing costs.

    Three Months Ended     December 31,    September 30,    December 31,

    [See Table]

        Energy generation and storage revenue in Q4 decreased by 6% compared to Q3. This was mainly driven by seasonal decline in solar deployment and by our continued focus on more profitable, cash sales.

        GAAP gross margin in Q4 declined significantly as compared to Q3, due largely to several one-time factors and a higher mix of storage products. Q4 gross margin was impacted by the typical seasonal decline in solar energy production and correspondingly lower lease revenue in the winter months. We also booked one-time air freight costs for the South Australian battery project and took write-downs related to legacy commercial & industrial projects that we had committed to prior to the acquisition of SolarCity.

        We expect gross margin to improve significantly in 2018 from higher operational and manufacturing cost efficiencies as well as deployment of higher-quality commercial projects.

    Other Highlights

        Service and Other revenue decreased by 5% compared to Q3 but increased by 81% compared to Q4 2016. Used car sales was the main driver of this year-over-year growth.

        Service and Other gross loss increased to $89 million due to the significant growth of our service network in Q4 that has not been fully utilized yet as the Model 3 production ramp works to catch up, reserves for settlements with former customers of Grohmann and a one-time warranty true-up for used car sales. Gross margin on used cars sales was close to breakeven.

        Operating expenses increased by 5% sequentially to a total of $1.04 billion in spite of significant revenue growth. We continue to focus on keeping tight control over operating expenses even as we ramp production.

        Basic shares outstanding at the end of Q4 were approximately 168 million.

    Cash Flow and Liquidity

    [See Table]

        Cash flow from operating activities reached $510 million in Q4, achieving a new quarterly record. This was achieved mainly by improved collection of receivables, inventory reduction of finished vehicles, improved working capital from the ramp of Model 3, and growth in customer deposits. Cash flow from operating activities in 2017 was close to breakeven.

        The definition of operating cash flow includes cash outflow consumed by vehicle leasing. In order to show our cash flow from operations before leasing activities, proceeds from collateralized lease borrowing need to be added back. When that is done, our operating cash flow was $605 million in Q4. Additional $149 million of net funding was received in Q4 through our vehicle lease warehouse line and tax equity fund to help our cash flows.

        Capital expenditures reached $787 million in Q4. The majority was attributable to Model 3 and Gigafactory 1 production capacity increases. We are continuing to proactively manage capex spending. Additionally, some capex payments for Model 3 have been deferred to Q1.

    OUTLOOK

    2018 will be a transformative year for Tesla, with a high level of operational scaling. As we ramp production of both Model 3 and our energy products while keeping tight control of operating expenses, our quarterly operating income should turn sustainably positive at some point in 2018.

    We expect Model S and Model X deliveries to be approximately 100,000 in total, constrained by the supply of cells with the old 18650 form factor. As our sales network continues to expand to new markets in 2018, we believe orders should continue to grow. With demand outpacing production, we plan to optimize the options mix in order to maximize gross margin. As stated above, we continue to target a weekly Model 3 production rate of 2,500 by the end of Q1 and 5,000 by the end of Q2. Also, we are focused on achieving our target of 25% gross margin for Model 3 after our production stabilizes at 5,000 cars per week.

    We expect energy storage products to experience significant growth, with our aim to at least triple our sales this year. We expect energy generation and storage gross margin to improve significantly in 2018 as we enter the year with a backlog of higher-margin commercial solar projects and a more profitable energy storage business due to manufacturing efficiencies from scaling.

    Service and Other gross margin should improve in each subsequent quarter in 2018. This will be achieved mainly through improved service productivity via Mobile Service and better remote diagnostics for Model 3. Diagnostics architecture has been substantially redesigned for Model 3 in order to reduce physical service visits by more than 50%. Additionally, Superchargers will start generating revenue in 2018 with pay per use charging primarily by Model 3 customers.

    Capital expenditures in 2018 are projected to be slightly more than 2017. The majority of the spending will be to support increases in production capacity at Gigafactory 1 and Fremont, and for building stores, service centers, and Superchargers.

    This year, we are starting a new chapter of our journey. Hundreds of thousands of people will switch to our EVs and many others will turn their houses into near self-sufficient energy generators. This is the year when we believe we can achieve true cost parity - producing a premium EV like the Model 3 will be no more expensive than producing an ICE vehicle, something that many believe is not yet possible. We’ll continue to work as hard as we can to bring sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption into the mainstream.

    Elon Musk, Chairman & CEO                   Deepak Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer

    -----------------

    ...see full document below, including Financial Statements...

    Link: Tesla Motors Inc 2017 Q4 Financial Results


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Saw my first model3 at the weekend. Actually second after the one I saw at spacex when I did a factory tour. Anyways

    seems v great little compact car. A bit color sensitive but if they could make them fast enough I am sure they will sell extremely well.

    yes I am an Elon fan boy


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    Tesla Model S P100D & Model X P90D & 2016 BMW i8 & 2017 Sept 991.2 GT3 ordered. 2020 Porsche Mission E on order


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Nice improvement, net loss goes down from over $8000 per minute to just over $5000 per minute. Net loss for the quarter was 675.4 mil, with ~3.3 billion in cash, the cash pile will last just under 5 quarters. Inline with their burn rate of 3.4 billion a year last year. But that 3.3 billion number was inflated by the pre-sale of the new Roadster and their debt sale of 1.8 billion earlier. Take those out they will be left with just around a billion in cash.

    Model 3 production are also up, slightly more than 500 cars a month now, totalling just over 1500 for the quarter (not sure what the analysts were smoking but they had predicted 4100 cars!?!?!?!), so at this rate, the back log of 400,000 orders will be cleared in 80 months, or 6 years and 8 months. Elon still have a ambitious target of making 2500 of these a week, 5 times the current rate of production, but that target was suppose to happen 6 months ago. So even if they make it, which they cannot, they would still be almost 9 moths behind schedule. 

    And taking about behind schedule, Elon proclaimed Tesla would make 500,000 cars a year by the end of 2018, that's a bridge too far. Barring any surprises, they should ended up making perhaps 150,000 cars for 2018. 

     

    We can revise the numbers another 3 months from now. Hopefully the cash burn will be under control by then.

     

     

     


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Whoopsy:

    Nice improvement, net loss goes down from over $8000 per minute to just over $5000 per minute. Net loss for the quarter was 675.4 mil, with ~3.3 billion in cash, the cash pile will last just under 5 quarters. Inline with their burn rate of 3.4 billion a year last year. But that 3.3 billion number was inflated by the pre-sale of the new Roadster and their debt sale of 1.8 billion earlier. Take those out they will be left with just around a billion in cash.

    Model 3 production are also up, slightly more than 500 cars a month now, totalling just over 1500 for the quarter (not sure what the analysts were smoking but they had predicted 4100 cars!?!?!?!), so at this rate, the back log of 400,000 orders will be cleared in 80 months, or 6 years and 8 months. Elon still have a ambitious target of making 2500 of these a week, 5 times the current rate of production, but that target was suppose to happen 6 months ago. So even if they make it, which they cannot, they would still be almost 9 moths behind schedule. 

    And taking about behind schedule, Elon proclaimed Tesla would make 500,000 cars a year by the end of 2018, that's a bridge too far. Barring any surprises, they should ended up making perhaps 150,000 cars for 2018. 

     

    We can revise the numbers another 3 months from now. Hopefully the cash burn will be under control by then.


    In general agree with your analysis. But there are some incorrect points.

    In the Q1 2017 report where the Model 3 plans were revealed more in detail they estimated a production pace of 5000/week by end of 2017. This target has now been moved to 5000/week by end of Q2 2018. So with this new plan a 6 month delay, not 9 months.

    Other point is that the production volume for 2018 has NEVER been anything close to produce 500k vehicles during 2018, not even in the initial plan. This is a general misconceptions in media. What they said in Q1 2017 was that they "at some point during 2018" would reach a production capacity of 10.000 vehicles/week (which interpolate to 500k/year) and hence 2019 would be the year of 500k produced vehicles. So there have never ever been anything mentioned about 500k model 3 in 2018.

    So all in all, the delay is about 6 months. The production line that is verified in Germany and now will be moved and installed in US by end of Q1 will for sure be an important milestone for production ramp. Only time will tell what will happen, but the outlook is really rather good.

    Some really interesting news about Autopilot also. Think we will see some huge improvements in maximum 6 months and the Neural Nets that gather information continuously from all 150k vehicles on the road will soon show it's value. I know that the negatives think that Tesla is behind in AP, but I think they will be in for a surprise. If they get the Enhanced AP and FSD to deliver value customers would want to purchase the upgrade. That will be some 100% margin incomes because customers will pay for a software upgrade since the cars already have the hardware. Cars will for sure not be fully self driving, but the features added will trigger many to upgrade (if the features are proven to work of course).


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    To make it clear: I deeply admire Elon Musk, including his achievements in Tesla but especially for his vision of the future. This doesn't mean that Tesla is a success story though and it won't be. Too much time has passed, no real groundbreaking achievements were achieved (even if Elon Musk makes us believe...especially regarding battery tech and/or autonomous driving).

    So I am realistic here: The competition is currently preparing a mega ELV attack on Tesla...or maybe we should call it different: The competition finally discovered ELVs and autonomous driving and they have the tech, the know-how, the money(!) and the development/tech background to produce amazing high quality products.

    I ask again: If you had a Porsche Mission E with the same performance as the Tesla P100D for the same money, which one would you choose? Be honest. Or imagine a Macan or Cayenne ELV with the same performance as the Tesla X for the same money, which one would you choose? I think I know the answer.

    Tesla doesn't have the (financial) comfort of lowering prices or substantially increase quality, to become more competitive.

    Why is the Tesla stock value that high? Maybe because the investors share a vision with Elon Musk or maybe because many investors believe that at some point, one of the bigger players on the (car) market will buy Tesla. I highly doubt that though because the competition already did their homework, they are developing their own stuff. I could see Tesla being bought by some Chinese company or some sort of investor but for the current value? I doubt it.


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    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Tesla is not just a car company . It englobes management of private  energy and will also manage the future of car sharing etc...     And probably it will develop in even more then this . A more general transportation company that includes everything , from the energy to software , hardware ..... That's what the share price represents . 

    Apple was also disliked and criticized for years before taken seriously . 

    That said, I still sold all my Tesla shares two weeks ago smiley but maybe again, like many times before , way too soon ....


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     964 Carrera 4 --  997.2 C2S , -20mm --  991 GT3 RS 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Gnil:

    Tesla is not just a car company . It englobes management of private  energy and will also manage the future of car sharing etc...     And probably it will develop in even more then this . A more general transportation company that includes everything , from the energy to software , hardware ..... That's what the share price represents . 

    Too much fantasy in the share price... I can see a future for SpaceX but not for Tesla, sorry. At least not as a car company. Battery/solar tech? Big hype. In reality, there are companies out there in the world working on much more advanced and efficient tech but Tesla is better in marketing. Yet.

    Apple was also disliked and criticized for years before taken seriously . 

    Not by me...especially since the iPhone 1.

    That said, I still sold all my Tesla shares two weeks ago smiley but maybe again, like many times before , way too soon ....

    Same here, went in again at around 300, sold at 330 (or was it 335?). Made some nice profit again but now, I'm out. Too expensive. Should have bought Netflix instead at under 200 but same here, I do not believe in them and this is a problem for me. 


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Everyone in their analyses left out a couple of important details.  First, Musk stated that Tesla will not produce the base Model 3 until late 2018.   Many of the backlogged deposits are for this less expensive variant and the market has yet to see a Model 3 without the premium interior.    Second, most of the base model customers want or need the federal government EV tax incentive of $7,500, which will have stsrtef its rampsoen elimination by the time the base Modrl 3 enters production since the total number of vehicles sold in the States will have exceeded 200,000 units.  


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Elon Musk’s Tesla overshot Mars’ orbit, but it won’t reach the asteroid belt as claimed

    " Elon Musk’s Tesla Roadster, which launched on top of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy on Tuesday, is going farther out into the Solar System than originally planned. The car was supposed to be put on a path around the Sun that would take the vehicle out to the distance of Mars’ orbit. But the rocket carrying the car seems to have overshot that trajectory and has put the Tesla in an orbit that extends beyond the Red Planet’s path. However, the Tesla won’t be making it to the asteroid belt, as SpaceX CEO Elon Musk originally claimed. "

    Easy, just turn on the Autopilot and it will fix the route Smiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    With Autopilot engaged, it would collide with the sun, as the system wouldn’t distinguish the sun from the background.  


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    CGX car nut:

    Everyone in their analyses left out a couple of important details.  First, Musk stated that Tesla will not produce the base Model 3 until late 2018.   Many of the backlogged deposits are for this less expensive variant and the market has yet to see a Model 3 without the premium interior.    Second, most of the base model customers want or need the federal government EV tax incentive of $7,500, which will have stsrtef its rampsoen elimination by the time the base Modrl 3 enters production since the total number of vehicles sold in the States will have exceeded 200,000 units.  

    Speaking to a few equity and credit analysts, one of the major concerns about the Model 3 (aside from the slow volume ramp-up) is that Tesla is reporting negative gross margins on Model 3 production and this is forecast to continue...

    Quote: "We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1..." -- Tesla 2017 Q4 Report

    If the company cannot demonstrate the ability to produce the Model 3 with positive gross margins, then the jumbo backlog of orders is less of an asset and more a massive liabilitySmiley

    Indeed, the production of a Model 3 base model is presenting a significant challenge for Tesla in an important year, where cash flow and liquidity is tight... Smiley (...and competition is increasing, e.g. Audi already taking orders...)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC:

    To make it clear: I deeply admire Elon Musk, including his achievements in Tesla but especially for his vision of the future. This doesn't mean that Tesla is a success story though and it won't be.

    It's already a success story.

    Too much time has passed, no real groundbreaking achievements were achieved (even if Elon Musk makes us believe...especially regarding battery tech and/or autonomous driving).

    No real ground braking achievements?  What have the german auto industry done the last 10 years that is ground breaking in comparison? Fine tuned the internal combustion engine and belonging components? In the mix created a few scandals as well.

    Also, to success doesn't always mean to make things more complicated. The simple solutions is often the genios ones. This is exactly what Tesla have proven and also done.

    So I am realistic here: The competition is currently preparing a mega ELV attack on Tesla...or maybe we should call it different: The competition finally discovered ELVs and autonomous driving and they have the tech, the know-how, the money(!) and the development/tech background to produce amazing high quality products.

    You're funny guy. "Preparing a mega ELV attack on Tesla" Smiley

    I mean, it's not a war. Competition is great and we'll see how the different companies in the market develop the next coming years.

    In general I think you should be a bit more humble.

    I ask again: If you had a Porsche Mission E with the same performance as the Tesla P100D for the same money, which one would you choose? Be honest. Or imagine a Macan or Cayenne ELV with the same performance as the Tesla X for the same money, which one would you choose? I think I know the answer.

    - That Porsche EV doesn't exist today
    - They've planned for around 20-40k cars annually with a possibility to ramp up. Impressive?
    - Porsche and VW will realize that it will be DIFFICULT to sell ICE cars when they start to offer EV in their portfolio, which will create problems because the main production volumes are still planned for in ICE/Hybrid. This will be costly with a lot of cars produced that will be difficult to move. Prices needs to be lowered to sell them at all. Specifically more expensive ICE where Porsche make big profit. No one would buy them. At least not for list prices asked.
    - Organization - People in the old structure in many ways will be a big hurdle to transform into the new way of car business
    - Legacy, legacy, legacy
    - Trying to sell both ICE and EV's at the same dealer floor. DIFFICULT.
    - Porsche will not be cheaper than a Tesla in the real world. Tesla prices will probably go down a bit also due to economies of scale and Gigafactory.
    - Tesla continue developing their products. A new Model S with some new stuff will be announced really rather simultaneous as Mission-E is exposed. Faster charging speeds, even more tech, upped quality, etc.
    - Specifications for the Mission-E is not really something ground braking even if it's not yet launched.
    - Tesla have created a brand that to most is associated with EV and a bit like Apple. Porsche does not have that profile in the EV space and even if they will get there it will take some time. There will be customers for both brands. Different strokes for different folks.

    Overall I think you in your analyze forget about some important things. This entire transformation won't be cheap for the german car industry and it will be a big challenge with all legacy and assets connected to combustion engine manufacturing. Releasing a new EV model is one thing, but scale up with all new bit's and pieces that are required is not a simple thing.

    And Honestly, I don't care a shit about who will deliver what etc, but it for sure is fun to follow the disruptive changes that currently is ongoing in the to date really rather conservative car industry. I will continue buying the car that appeal to me most, like I always have done, and that can differ over time. I'd be happy to buy a Porsche in 2-3 years if that's appealing, but it might equally be an Audi or a Tesla. Or Volvo SmileySmiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Boxster Coupe GTS:
    CGX car nut:

    Everyone in their analyses left out a couple of important details.  First, Musk stated that Tesla will not produce the base Model 3 until late 2018.   Many of the backlogged deposits are for this less expensive variant and the market has yet to see a Model 3 without the premium interior.    Second, most of the base model customers want or need the federal government EV tax incentive of $7,500, which will have stsrtef its rampsoen elimination by the time the base Modrl 3 enters production since the total number of vehicles sold in the States will have exceeded 200,000 units.  

    Speaking to a few equity and credit analysts, one of the major concerns about the Model 3 (aside from the slow volume ramp-up) is that Tesla is reporting negative gross margins on Model 3 production and this is forecast to continue...

    Quote: "We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1..." -- Tesla 2017 Q4 Report

    If the company cannot demonstrate the ability to produce the Model 3 with positive gross margins, then the jumbo backlog of orders is less of an asset and more a massive liabilitySmiley

    Indeed, the production of a Model 3 base model is presenting a significant challenge for Tesla in an important year, where cash flow and liquidity is tight... Smiley (...and competition is increasing, e.g. Audi already taking orders...)


    Problem is that the competition does not have any volumes to provide. To announce a new model is one thing, but deliver according to demand is another. Neither VW-group, BMW or Daimler will be able to deliver high volumes of EV's the next coming years.

    Gross margin for Model 3 will of course not be negative when they ramp up. Can't draw any conclusion based on Q1 where they'll continue to produce very low volumes.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:
    Boxster Coupe GTS:
    CGX car nut:

    Everyone in their analyses left out a couple of important details.  First, Musk stated that Tesla will not produce the base Model 3 until late 2018.   Many of the backlogged deposits are for this less expensive variant and the market has yet to see a Model 3 without the premium interior.    Second, most of the base model customers want or need the federal government EV tax incentive of $7,500, which will have stsrtef its rampsoen elimination by the time the base Modrl 3 enters production since the total number of vehicles sold in the States will have exceeded 200,000 units.  

    Speaking to a few equity and credit analysts, one of the major concerns about the Model 3 (aside from the slow volume ramp-up) is that Tesla is reporting negative gross margins on Model 3 production and this is forecast to continue...

    Quote: "We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1..." -- Tesla 2017 Q4 Report

    If the company cannot demonstrate the ability to produce the Model 3 with positive gross margins, then the jumbo backlog of orders is less of an asset and more a massive liabilitySmiley

    Indeed, the production of a Model 3 base model is presenting a significant challenge for Tesla in an important year, where cash flow and liquidity is tight... Smiley (...and competition is increasing, e.g. Audi already taking orders...)


    Problem is that the competition does not have any volumes to provide. To announce a new model is one thing, but deliver according to demand is another. Neither VW-group, BMW or Daimler will be able to deliver high volumes of EV's the next coming years.

    Gross margin for Model 3 will of course not be negative when they ramp up. Can't draw any conclusion based on Q1 where they'll continue to produce very low volumes.

    There is a significant difference between can’t ramp up and won’t ramp up production because consumer demand for EVs remain non-quantifiable.   Tesla’s sales volumes are not representative of demand in the rest of the sector due to a number of factors including virtue signaling.   

    One is also assuming that fixed costs and not variable costs is the reason for the Model 3’s negative gross margin.   Without additional information, such statements are speculative.

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Of course it's fixed costs.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    The WHEN is the key.

    As of right now, Model 3 production is still partially hand made, the labour cost is what kills the margin.

    Elon is hoping by the end of Q2 I believe, which is 2 months away, that the production bugs will be sorted out and the automated machines takes over and the production can finally ramp up.

    But the key is that Tesla has never made a single deadline, ever. IS it any different this time around?

    Alas, the Model 3 will not be the key to Tesla's success, the margin, even if they are profitable, is small and will not do much to their bottom line, the high margin trucks will be the key.


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:
    RC:

    To make it clear: I deeply admire Elon Musk, including his achievements in Tesla but especially for his vision of the future. This doesn't mean that Tesla is a success story though and it won't be.

    It's already a success story.

    No, it isn't. Yet. How can something be a success if you don't make money with it? Smiley Unless you are talking about Elon Musk's (and some Tesla fanboys) ego, this is a different story. Smiley

    Too much time has passed, no real groundbreaking achievements were achieved (even if Elon Musk makes us believe...especially regarding battery tech and/or autonomous driving).

    No real ground braking achievements?  What have the german auto industry done the last 10 years that is ground breaking in comparison? They've just fine tuned a dying concept having an internal combustion engine as drivetrain. In the mix they have created a few scandals as well.

    I can see that you didn't care much about the achievements in the car technology of the past 10 years. There are many ground breaking developments but the question is: Can you market and sell them? Smiley German car industry is bound to profit, not making one person and some fanboys happy, sorry.

    Also, to success doesn't always mean to make things more complicated. The simple solutions win. This is exactly what Tesla have proven and also done.

    So I am realistic here: The competition is currently preparing a mega ELV attack on Tesla...or maybe we should call it different: The competition finally discovered ELVs and autonomous driving and they have the tech, the know-how, the money(!) and the development/tech background to produce amazing high quality products.

    You're funny guy. "Preparing a mega ELV attack on Tesla" Smiley

    Wait and see... I was impressed. Tesla didn't impress me, other than the gadgetry and that "ludicrous mode", which was more of a marketing gag than something really interesting. Just imagine the 991.2 Turbo S launch control would work only three or four times. Smiley

    I mean, it's not a war, but you seem to think it is. Competition is great and we'll see how the different companies in the market develop the next coming years.

    In general I think you should be a bit more humble.

    I am not humble because I've seen the future at VW Group. Highly impressive but they also need to make money with it, so only going to happen if people are also willing to spend money for this tech. Probably in the more luxurious and upper prices class only...at first.

    I ask again: If you had a Porsche Mission E with the same performance as the Tesla P100D for the same money, which one would you choose? Be honest. Or imagine a Macan or Cayenne ELV with the same performance as the Tesla X for the same money, which one would you choose? I think I know the answer.

    - That Porsche EV doesn't exist today
    - They've planned for around 20-40k cars annually with a possibility to ramp up. Impressive? Not sure.
    - Porsche and VW will realize that it will be DIFFICULT to sell ICE cars when they start to offer EV in their portfolio, which will create problems because the main production volumes are still planned for in ICE/Hybrid. This will be costly with a lot of cars produced that will be difficult to move. Prices needs to be lowered to sell them at all. Specifically more expensive ICE where Porsche make big profit. No one would buy them. At least not for list prices asked.
    - Organization - People in the old structure in many ways will be a big hurdle to transform into the new way of car business
    - Legacy, legacy, legacy
    - Trying to sell both ICE and EV's at the same dealer floor. DIFFICULT.
    - Porsche will not be cheaper than a Tesla in the real world. Tesla prices will probably go down a bit also due to economies of scale and Gigafactory.
    - Tesla continue developing their products. A new Model S with some new stuff will be announced really rather simultaneous as Mission-E is exposed. Faster charging speeds, even more tech, upped quality, etc.
    - Specifications for the Mission-E is not really something ground braking even if it's not yet launched.
    - Tesla have created a brand that to most is associated with EV and a bit like Apple. Porsche does not have that profile. There will be customers for both brands. Different strokes for different folks.

    Tesla legacy? Smiley I know a lot of people who have the money to buy Tesla but they never would. Why? US car. Period. I know how this sounds but this is a (European) reality I'm afraid. Asia? Maybe. Again, I doubt it.

    Overall I think you in your analyze forget about some important things. This entire transformation won't be cheap for the german car industry and it will be a big challenge with all legacy and assets connected to combustion engine manufacturing. Releasing a new EV model is one thing, but scale up with all new bit's and pieces that are required is not a simple thing.

    And Honestly, I don't care a shit about who will deliver what etc, but it for sure is fun to follow the disruptive changes that currently is ongoing in the to date really rather conservative car industry. I will continue buying the car that appeal to me most, like I always have done, and that can differ over time. I'd be happy to buy a Porsche in 2-3 years if that's appealing, but it might equally be an Audi or a Tesla. Or Volvo SmileySmiley

    No, you forget something: The German car industry needs to make profit and they do. Tesla is losing money, big time. In the end, Tesla will be broke and the German car industry will learn from Tesla's mistakes. They already did. Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    noone1:

    Of course it's fixed costs.

    Based on what?   


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:

    you're a very special man RC

    I'm out of this discussion. For good.

    Why are you taking this so seriously? Smiley 

    Too much Tesla stock in your portfolio? Or are you actually working for Tesla? 

    Seriously: We are discussing Tesla, the positive and the negative stuff. I like your arguments but this doesn't mean I have to agree with you. This is the whole point of a discussion. 


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC:
    lukestern:

    you're a very special man RC

    I'm out of this discussion. For good.

    Why are you taking this so seriously? Smiley 

    Too much Tesla stock in your portfolio? Or are you actually working for Tesla? 

    Seriously: We are discussing Tesla, the positive and the negative stuff. I like your arguments but this doesn't mean I have to agree with you. This is the whole point of a discussion. 

    Not taking it that seriously and normally find this discussion rather entertaining which is the reason I'm here. The thing I'm mainly arguing about is when things get a bit too exaggerated.

    And no, I'm not working for Tesla and don't have any stock either. Just happen to like what Tesla is doing and think it's great for the car industry. EVs are a good thing for daily driving and I really believe in the concept.

    Smiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Whoopsy:

    The WHEN is the key.

    As of right now, Model 3 production is still partially hand made, the labour cost is what kills the margin.

    Elon is hoping by the end of Q2 I believe, which is 2 months away, that the production bugs will be sorted out and the automated machines takes over and the production can finally ramp up.

    But the key is that Tesla has never made a single deadline, ever. IS it any different this time around?

    Alas, the Model 3 will not be the key to Tesla's success, the margin, even if they are profitable, is small and will not do much to their bottom line, the high margin trucks will be the key.

    That’s the disturbing part that most have glossed over.  In the earnings call, Tesla stated that cash flow from operations will not exceed CapEx for the foreseeable future.  While Model Y production will require more CapEx investment, that statement implies that the Model 3 line will require further investment too.  The team danced around automated, semi-automated and manual assembly several times during the call.  


     
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