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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:
    RC:

    Tesla? I may have been wrong about the stock value but not about the company itself. In the end, Tesla sells cars and there are companies which do that much better and efficient than Tesla. It is just a matter of time.

    Fastest cars? Are you kidding me? If Porsche, Ferrari and Co. would be serious about fast ELVs, they would destroy Tesla. The time hasn't come yet but it will.


    Just curious, why do you say that there are companies that sell cars better than Tesla? In what way? In my book they got a very smart, modern and cost efficient business model and the Fremont factory is very efficient. Yes, it's still a small company in the big scheme of things, but it can't be denied that they're making some impressive progress.

    Why do you think Porsche, Ferrari etc will "destroy" Tesla for BEV? At least I haven't seen any such indications seeing the specs of the concept cars that are supposed to enter production in small volumes by the end of the decade.

    Are you serious? I love Tesla for the gadgetry but everything else? Nope. Chassis? Nope. Driving fun? Nope (gets boring fast...). What else is there? I am a car guy but right now, Tesla doesn't attract me a bit. As a gadget/software type of guy, I love Tesla.


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC:

    Are you serious? I love Tesla for the gadgetry but everything else? Nope. Chassis? Nope. Driving fun? Nope (gets boring fast...). What else is there? I am a car guy but right now, Tesla doesn't attract me a bit. As a gadget/software type of guy, I love Tesla.

    Yeah, I'm serious.

    Just a hint, Tesla is not tailoring the car just for YOU. And I think your demands and needs when it comes to cars are representative for 0,01% of the market. Tesla never told anyone to have the best chassis setup and being able to sledge hammer it around corners or drive the car on NBR. That's just stuff made up on the internet. Tesla offer two cars today. Practical and cool daily drivers that are very comfortable and convenient. What have created all the smoke is that the P100D happen to outperform more or less any car off the line, but that is not what the car is all about for 99% of the buyers who tend to buy the non Performance versions for all the other reasons.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC, Tesla aren't for you. Your wife maybe, but it will be a long time before you get a full EV from any manufacturer... Tesla makes vehicules for the other 98% out there.

    I hope my next daily driver is a high performance Macan full EV, not a flawed hybrid. I also hope not to have to buy another petrol daily driver ever again. I doubt the model Y will be nice enough and the X is just too big to replace the Macan as we already have the RRS which we hope to own for another 10 years.

    Tesla is revolutionizing the industry in other ways. They are the first ones to bypass soft retooling for factories, they are trying to improve manufacturing, they are building the gigafactory, they have no dealers, there is no haggling price negotiation and they come pick up the car at your house, plus they have the supercharger network today, not just some vague project like others do.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    It's not about them having a bad product, it's about the reality of the auto industry and the competition and just how big their market is. If they don't start moving 500K cars per year, every year, they're kind of screwed. We don't know how many of the Model 3 reservations will materialize into sales or how much demand there is beyond the initial reservation.

    I look at the Model 3 and I see a low-end product at a rather high price. I don't think it's going to see the success Tesla needs.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Once again, show us a full EV competitor you can have in your garage within 18 months for cheaper than a model 3...


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:

    RC, Tesla aren't for you. Your wife maybe, but it will be a long time before you get a full EV from any manufacturer... Tesla makes vehicules for the other 98% out there.

    I hope my next daily driver is a high performance Macan full EV, not a flawed hybrid. I also hope not to have to buy another petrol daily driver ever again. I doubt the model Y will be nice enough and the X is just too big to replace the Macan as we already have the RRS which we hope to own for another 10 years.

    Tesla is revolutionizing the industry in other ways. They are the first ones to bypass soft retooling for factories, they are trying to improve manufacturing, they are building the gigafactory, they have no dealers, there is no haggling price negotiation and they come pick up the car at your house, plus they have the supercharger network today, not just some vague project like others do.

    Everyone will then bypass tooling if that's what's possible or working. The idea that Tesla is revolutionizing manufacturing while Toyota is sitting around twiddling their thumbs is pretty absurd. Toyota is making more cars in a day than Tesla does in a quarter. You can bet your ass that Toyota invests a lot of time and money in efficiency and shaving every minute or dollar it can off production given how quickly it adds up over 10 million cars. If soft retooling is proving unnecessary with today's technology, then it will disappear.

    Gigafactory will be useful, probably, but Panasonic essentially owns it and the technology. Anyone can cut a check and build the same factory and they could do it very quickly. Tesla had to raise money for the factory and such and it's considered a liability on their balance sheet, but no one else does. It's a stroke of a pen to cut  $5B checks for many of these companies.

    Same for charging infrastructure. Toyota and VW could build a network 10x as big as Tesla's within a year. They're very quick to build and actually quite cheap, relatively speaking. Toyota has $20B in cash flow. They could build 20K location a year if they really wanted to, but at the end of the day, most EV sales will be going to homeowners anyway and supercharging isn't that important for the vast majority of people.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:

    Once again, show us a full EV competitor you can have in your garage within 18 months for cheaper than a model 3...

    Chevy Bolt and it's been out for a while now... GM beat them to the punch...

    Besides, what happens in 18 months? Tesla needs to sell vast amounts of Model 3s every year, from now until infinity. They can't see sales tank in 18 months. So the question really is, what does Tesla have that is going to keep them hot and ahead of the pack in 18 months when all car prices drop $7500 due to all tax credits expiring?


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Bolt. Ok that's one, a $18k car that costs over double because of the EV part and looks very ugly, and old tech. Next.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    A Model 3 is an 18K car that cost double because it's an EV and looks mediocre at best too. It will price out near $50K after you add all the technology features Tesla hypes up too.

    These cheap Tesla EVs are a pipdream still. The $7500 rebate will be quickly gone. They also factor gas savings into their MSRP, which is dumb. Doesn't come with autopilot, etc.

    Model 3 is not going to be cheap.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Tesla's supercharger network is the biggest right now, but that's not saying much as it runs on 400V and the future is 800V, it's like saying carburetors owned the car market back in the 60s, but it's just a stop gap measure until the world moved to fuel injection.

    Telsa has no choice but to open up their EV patents, they want others to use their tech, to standardize their tech. If they don't they will be marginalized. The other car makers didn't fall for the bait and combine and did a competing technology, with the 800V charging system. Now Tesla has no chic but to follow and develop their own 800V system. 

    Tesla is the pioneer, no question about that part. Elon has a vision and he followed through. Perhaps a bit premature time wise, but he did push up the agenda of other car makers on EV. If not for him, we may not see EV for another decade if not longer.

    Tesla's factory is not unionized, that gives him the greatest flexibility, he can react quicker to market demands that way. I do hope they survive and become a model for a union-less efficient factory for others to copy.


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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Let's not lose sight of the fact that electric car sales are declining world wide. Also, self driving cars are the future and Tesla is no where near competing in that market place. Finally, automobile manufacturing is very capital intensive and Tesla has been operating very lean. To get production up will require a great deal of capital investment which will be challenging given the above stated factors.

    Nick, unions still a burr in your saddle?indecision


    --

    "A man wrapped up in himself makes for a very small bundle."


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    The first time I heard of a self driving car it was a Tesla. How can they not be competing in that space?

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    rhino:

    The first time I heard of a self driving car it was a Tesla. How can they not be competing in that space?

     

    Because most of their resources are going into development of their electric model. Musk made a decision to take an incremental approach to self driving cars development. He doesn't have the resources to make it a priority item. Tesla is behind other car manufacturers and some tech companies in this area.Smiley


    --

    "A man wrapped up in himself makes for a very small bundle."


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Well, I don't know where they are along the path, but I will say that while Tesla does have lots of "autopilot" miles, companies like Google are doing 100% autonomous mileage. Google doesn't care about anything other than full autonomy and that's what they're focusing on. Autopilot to autonomous driving is like hybrids to EVs


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    rhino:

    The first time I heard of a self driving car it was a Tesla. How can they not be competing in that space?

    Because this petrolhead forum might not be the most reliable source of information when it comes to either EVs or autonomous driving smiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:

    Tesla is revolutionizing the industry in other ways. They are the first ones to bypass soft retooling for factories, they are trying to improve manufacturing, they are building the gigafactory, they have no dealers, there is no haggling price negotiation and they come pick up the car at your house, plus they have the supercharger network today, not just some vague project like others do.

    Not sure where you have received your information about bypassing soft tooling as this is standard procedures with all the major automakers for the past twenty years.  Tesla is the one doing the catchup, not the other way around, when it comes to manufacturing technologies and efficiencies.  The majors bend more metal in a couple of days than what Tesla does in an entire year.  What's different is the hype associated with Tesla, compared with the other makers.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Read up, no soft retooling for the model 3. They create programs sophisticated to bypass it. They are the first ones.

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Worth mentioning that they skipped soft tooling not because it's a bad idea or they are so good without it, but because they didn't have time to make use of it with the X. They had to rush to order permanent tooling before being able to take anything useful away from the soft tooling. As you know, the X was considered very problematic, relatively speaking.

    Also, Audi has already been using simulated tooling.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    nberry:

     

    Nick, unions still a burr in your saddle?indecision

     

    Of course! unions were an old relic from the industrial revolution where owners are harsh and governments are not helping.

    Modern era governments already have way too many laws protecting workers, there is no need for unions anymore. They are just a drag on productivity.

    Unions are a legal mafia entity, nothing more. 

    Imagine your own secretary is a union worker, she refuses to do her job and go on strike, you can't fire her nor hire a replacement, holding your important cases as hostages until you meet her demand of only working 4 hours a day 3 days a week, with twice the salary increase, how would you feel? 


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:
    rhino:

    The first time I heard of a self driving car it was a Tesla. How can they not be competing in that space?

    Because this petrolhead forum might not be the most reliable source of information when it comes to either EVs or autonomous driving smiley

     

    Oh come on, at least in here we don't have circle jerk of EV lovers blowing each other's 3rd leg in the middle. Here we have a very diverse demography of car owners, from petrol cars to diesel cars to hybrids to pure EV, from hypercars to classic cars to plain jane people movers Smiley


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:

    Read up, no soft retooling for the model 3. They create programs sophisticated to bypass it. They are the first ones

    There is nothing innovative here as this, stated once again, is what all the other automakers have done for a couple of decades. No other automaker uses soft tooling...


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Well maybe soft tooling isn't the proper term but they did something others usually don't. It is a fact. They learned this from the X experience.

    And No-one, they didn't do it just to save time, they did it to save money and make less mistakes.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:

    Well maybe soft tooling isn't the proper term but they did something others usually don't. It is a fact. They learned this from the X experience.

    And No-one, they didn't do it just to save time, they did it to save money and make less mistakes.

    Once again, Tesla is not doing anything unique to the industry with tooling, it is merely using an approach that others have used for a couple of decades.  While Tesla may lead in some areas of EV motor and battery technologies, it is behind in the basic technologies of body-in-white fabrication and other areas of automobile production.  Tesla's level of production automation and supply chain management is behind the average automaker.   Peter Hochholdinger, Tesla's VP of Production is a recent hire from Audi, a leader in production systems to dramatically revamp Tesla's production system before the launch of the Model 3.  If Tesla was at the forefront, what would an experienced production veteran add?

    Musk and Tesla are masters of hype, not automaking.  

     

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Can't find the article mentioning this... But it seemed pretty clear.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    SciFrog:

    Can't find the article mentioning this... But it seemed pretty clear.

    Because the article will relay factual information versus marketing hype...  Seriously, have you even visited an auto assembly plant?  Even on the publicly available tours, for example, Hyundai in Montgomery, Alabama, one will immediately see that Tesla has much to learn about automobile production and supply chain management.  What was stated as a breakthrough at Tesla isn't for the rest of the industry; everyone is laughing at how gullible some are to accept these patently false statements.  Every new car spy video and photograph one views online is of a vehicle built using production hard tooling, not soft tooling.  Hell, Tesla hasn't even adopted platform sharing let alone the more sophisticated approaches of component matrices utilized by Volkswagen Group, BMW, and Toyota.  Tesla's three models each ride on a different platform.  This lengthens development time and increases costs, which is an arse backward approach for a capital constrained company. 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    My god you guys are Black and White with everything! I know I'm not too different sometimes but jeeze! 

    Tesla is not the best car manufacturer in the world. 

    Tesla is not the worst car manufacturer in the world.

    They have a LOT of cash, but not anywhere as much as one of the major car manufacturers. They are hiring high quality people because 1) people want to work there, 2) they are paying well 3) they need to create from blank sheets new things and aren't burdened by history or legacy. 4) they have a boss that isn't afraid of radical thinking or moving on if it isn't working. They are rapidly getting better but some aspects of the cars still need to come a long way. They are hiring people that should be able to make those changes (interior designers from Audi for example).

    They were never going to be the sole player in the EV world, they will be one of many, most of whom are better know car manufacturers. BUT they have first mover advantage. When a regular person thinks "Electric Car", they probably think Tesla. That is much more valuable than had they started as an ICE or Hybrid manufacturer that then got into EV.

    They also have a massive advantage with their charging grid. Not just on the road but parked in your garage charging from a Tesla house module powered from your Tesla roof, supplemented from the Tesla solar power station into the Tesla built battery. 

    Pretty much EVERY Hybrid and EV has started to use Panasonic batteries (18650) and the new better ones (2170) are only at the moment for Tesla from the Gigafactory. Between that factory and the Panasonic one in Dalian that will be the source of the vast majority of all batteries regardless of maker. That alone will insure that Tesla stays relevant because that whole market is beyond opaque and now controlled by Panasonic and Tesla. Kind of like if 40% of the world's cars had engines make by Ford. You might not drive a Ford, but your car is driven by Ford...


    --

     

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Here is the article:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-assemblyline-idUSKBN17Q0DE

    Seems pretty clear to a novice reader, you seem to have more experience...


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Mithras:

    My god you guys are Black and White with everything! I know I'm not too different sometimes but jeeze! 

    Tesla is not the best car manufacturer in the world. 

    Tesla is not the worst car manufacturer in the world.

    They have a LOT of cash, but not anywhere as much as one of the major car manufacturers. They are hiring high quality people because 1) people want to work there, 2) they are paying well 3) they need to create from blank sheets new things and aren't burdened by history or legacy. 4) they have a boss that isn't afraid of radical thinking or moving on if it isn't working. They are rapidly getting better but some aspects of the cars still need to come a long way. They are hiring people that should be able to make those changes (interior designers from Audi for example).

    They were never going to be the sole player in the EV world, they will be one of many, most of whom are better know car manufacturers. BUT they have first mover advantage. When a regular person thinks "Electric Car", they probably think Tesla. That is much more valuable than had they started as an ICE or Hybrid manufacturer that then got into EV.

    They also have a massive advantage with their charging grid. Not just on the road but parked in your garage charging from a Tesla house module powered from your Tesla roof, supplemented from the Tesla solar power station into the Tesla built battery. 

    Pretty much EVERY Hybrid and EV has started to use Panasonic batteries (18650) and the new better ones (2170) are only at the moment for Tesla from the Gigafactory. Between that factory and the Panasonic one in Dalian that will be the source of the vast majority of all batteries regardless of maker. That alone will insure that Tesla stays relevant because that whole market is beyond opaque and now controlled by Panasonic and Tesla. Kind of like if 40% of the world's cars had engines make by Ford. You might not drive a Ford, but your car is driven by Ford...


    --

     

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

     

    Great post Mithras!


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Lots of Tesla stock holders here, right? indecision 


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC:

    Lots of Tesla stock holders here, right? indecision 

    At least they cannot say later that we did not warn them about what will happen Smiley


     
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