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    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    rhino:

    EV's are coming faster than anticipated and battery shortages will be greater than expected. Tesla has a yuuge jump on the competition, even-though they need to improve their interiors and driving dynamics. 

    Major reason why EVs are coming faster than "anticipated" is the myriad of global regulations to restrict carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles.  These regulations can't be met without a transition to electric prime movers; Volkswagen Group, and others, are painfully aware with what happens to a company that cheats with compliance.   

    Tesla is the first mover, however, this will cause the company to have taken the wrong technology pathway regarding battery pack technology.   The low power density and the large component sets required to form a Tesla battery pack is what makes it unprofitable too.  The more established automakers are aware of this issue and are waiting until the switch will be regulated upon them.  Volkswagen, for example, had the largest R&D budget of any company for many years.  One can be sure that Volkswagen has exhaustively researched EV technologies and has  vast knowledge on the topic exceeding that of Tesla.  I'm also sure that, short of an utilitarian design, the Chevrolet Bolt is a superiorly executed vehicle when compared with the Tesla Model 3.  


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    crayphile:
    SciFrog:

    What Musk has done is simply amazing. He started with a large fortune, went all in and still almost went bankrupt.

    You can dislike the cars or the technology, but he did something everyone said was imposssible.

    He is to be admired i agree. I don't know the figures but how much of the sale or ex factory price cost of a Tesla is subsidised by the government / tax payer in comparison to an old school car from Detroit which I know is also subsidised?

    Tesla did receive US taxpayer money which helped it get through the deep recession. It was a loan which they paid back early.

    An interesting fact is Tesla was on its death bed in late 2008 and but for a 50M dollars infusion from Daimler of Germany  Tesla would not have survived.


    --

    "A man wrapped up in himself makes for a very small bundle."


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    CGX car nut:
    rhino:

    EV's are coming faster than anticipated and battery shortages will be greater than expected. Tesla has a yuuge jump on the competition, even-though they need to improve their interiors and driving dynamics. 

    Major reason why EVs are coming faster than "anticipated" is the myriad of global regulations to restrict carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles.  These regulations can't be met without a transition to electric prime movers; Volkswagen Group, and others, are painfully aware with what happens to a company that cheats with compliance.   

    Tesla is the first mover, however, this will cause the company to have taken the wrong technology pathway regarding battery pack technology.   The low power density and the large component sets required to form a Tesla battery pack is what makes it unprofitable too.  The more established automakers are aware of this issue and are waiting until the switch will be regulated upon them.  Volkswagen, for example, had the largest R&D budget of any company for many years.  One can be sure that Volkswagen has exhaustively researched EV technologies and has  vast knowledge on the topic exceeding that of Tesla.  I'm also sure that, short of an utilitarian design, the Chevrolet Bolt is a superiorly executed vehicle when compared with the Tesla Model 3.  

     

    Tesla jumped onto the wrong train, or picked the wrong train as in the 400V system being the first mover. Industry is moving towards 800V and they are stuck at 400V with their vast infrastructure of charging network. 

    They only got 2 choices now, stay and 400V and got left behind or move with the industry to 800V and abandon their existing customers or spend vast amount of money to upgrade their network and existing cars. 


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    We'll see. So far 400v beats 0v -- the infrastructure of everyone else.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    noone1:

    We'll see. So far 400v DOESN'T beats GAS STATIONS -- the infrastructure of everyone else.

     

    Fixed.


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    rhino:

    EV's are coming faster than anticipated and battery shortages will be greater than expected. Tesla has a yuuge jump on the competition, even-though they need to improve their interiors and driving dynamics. 

    Many experts actually disagree here...

    The fact that we don't hear or see any new or innovative tech from other (classic) car manufacturers doesn't mean that they are sleeping. They are just perfecting their tech and wait for the right moment. Why introduce something completely new if they still make a lot of money with "old" tech?

    Don't underestimate the car industry...


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC:
    rhino:

    EV's are coming faster than anticipated and battery shortages will be greater than expected. Tesla has a yuuge jump on the competition, even-though they need to improve their interiors and driving dynamics. 

    Many experts actually disagree here...

    The fact that we don't hear or see any new or innovative tech from other (classic) car manufacturers doesn't mean that they are sleeping. They are just perfecting their tech and wait for the right moment. Why introduce something completely new if they still make a lot of money with "old" tech?

    Don't underestimate the car industry...

     


    Don't underestimate the power of new innovative companies that doesn't carry on legacy and having to adapt and transform ineffective organizations to new business models....


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:
    RC:
    rhino:

    EV's are coming faster than anticipated and battery shortages will be greater than expected. Tesla has a yuuge jump on the competition, even-though they need to improve their interiors and driving dynamics. 

    Many experts actually disagree here...

    The fact that we don't hear or see any new or innovative tech from other (classic) car manufacturers doesn't mean that they are sleeping. They are just perfecting their tech and wait for the right moment. Why introduce something completely new if they still make a lot of money with "old" tech?

    Don't underestimate the car industry...

     


    Don't underestimate the power of new innovative companies that doesn't carry on legacy and having to adapt and transform ineffective organizations to new business models....

    Tesla has passed the innovative phase...but maybe Musk will surprise us.


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    noone1:

    We'll see. So far 400v beats 0v -- the infrastructure of everyone else.

    +1

    Also keep in mind that the existing infrastructure built up by 3rd parties and electric companies in the world are currently rated at 1/3 of the Tesla charing speeds (50kW CCS/CHAdeMO is the standard).

    Even if Porsche announce 800v tech it will take time before the infrastructure is in place. And it's not that Tesla haven't got plans for quicker charging speeds....

    What most also seem to forget is that charging an EV is something completely different than filling up with petrol. With EVs you mainly charge at home and at different destinations where you stay for a bit longer (hotels, restaurants, shoppingmall, airport parkings, etc). Fast charging is only necessary when doing 300km+ roadtrip legs the same day. Everyone that know how an EV works in the real world understand that visits to fast chargers for most is something very rare. I can even imagine many owners driving pattern mean that they NEVER need to visit a fast charger.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Whoopsy:
    noone1:

    We'll see. So far 400v DOESN'T beats GAS STATIONS -- the infrastructure of everyone else.

     

    Fixed.

    Smiley


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    All arguments aside...honestly: How do you sell a car without the proper charging infrastructure? How do you make ELV a mass phenomenon/transportation tool without the possibility for owners to charge their cars fast and (almost) at every corner? Who is supposed to pay for the charging infrastructure and what happens with this infrastructure (which will costs BILLIONS over the next few years) if new tech arises and we don't need that infrastructure anymore. Charging/battery tech is evolving at a very fast pace lately, I wouldn't be surprised if a charging infrastructure would be obsolete in a couple of years because batteries can be charged fast in a different and easier way?!

    Too many unanswered questions I'm afraid. Tesla is only successful because they are the first in this domain and unlike Toyota with the Prius or others like BMW with the i3 who kind of started this ELV/hybrid hype, they actually offered tech which isn't ugly and which is even fun to use/drive. 


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC:

    All arguments aside...honestly: How do you sell a car without the proper charging infrastructure? How do you make ELV a mass phenomenon/transportation tool without the possibility for owners to charge their cars fast and (almost) at every corner? Who is supposed to pay for the charging infrastructure and what happens with this infrastructure (which will costs BILLIONS over the next few years) if new tech arises and we don't need that infrastructure anymore. Charging/battery tech is evolving at a very fast pace lately, I wouldn't be surprised if a charging infrastructure would be obsolete in a couple of years because batteries can be charged fast in a different and easier way?!

    Too many unanswered questions I'm afraid. Tesla is only successful because they are the first in this domain and unlike Toyota with the Prius or others like BMW with the i3 who kind of started this ELV/hybrid hype, they actually offered tech which isn't ugly and which is even fun to use/drive. 


    You're missing the point RC. You don't need to charge a car fast all the time. You only need to do so for those longer trips 300km+ commutes in one day. Most cars on the road does not travel that far per day, hence no need to fast charge. The owner drive to and from work and some more (let's say 200km) during a day, then go home plug-in and then the next day the car is ready for a new day fully charged....

    There wil of course always be those who drive 1000km per day and need to pace at 250km/h. For this category of drivers a diesel will be the viable option the coming years still. And that's perfectly fine! In 10 years fast charger along motorways will be able to charge quickly enough even for this category of drivers and at that point that driver can look into the EV options in 2027...

    My main point here is that the debate is a bit skewed and based on petrol filling patterns. It just does not compare with EVs. Like I wrote in my previous posts, most cars will probably never even need to visit a fast charger.

    One example just two weeks ago.... I and my girlfriend joined a friend of mine who own a Tesla S85D (small battery). We travelled to a summer cottage to visit some friends that was about 250km out in the sticks. We drove that stretch without stopping for a charge. When we arrived in the late afternoon the car was plugged in to a normal socket in the summer cottage, we enjoyed a dinner and slept over. Next morning we jumped in to a fully charged car and drove the same way back without charging. My friend then plugged his car in that evening and the car was fully charged the next day..... This is just one example where we drove 500km without the need for fast charging.

    Charging sockets are everywhere already... Talk about convenience! And it's cheap!


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:
    RC:

    All arguments aside...honestly: How do you sell a car without the proper charging infrastructure? How do you make ELV a mass phenomenon/transportation tool without the possibility for owners to charge their cars fast and (almost) at every corner? Who is supposed to pay for the charging infrastructure and what happens with this infrastructure (which will costs BILLIONS over the next few years) if new tech arises and we don't need that infrastructure anymore. Charging/battery tech is evolving at a very fast pace lately, I wouldn't be surprised if a charging infrastructure would be obsolete in a couple of years because batteries can be charged fast in a different and easier way?!

    Too many unanswered questions I'm afraid. Tesla is only successful because they are the first in this domain and unlike Toyota with the Prius or others like BMW with the i3 who kind of started this ELV/hybrid hype, they actually offered tech which isn't ugly and which is even fun to use/drive. 


    You're missing the point RC. You don't need to charge a car fast all the time. You only need to do so for those longer trips 300km+ commutes in one day. Most cars on the road does not travel that far per day, hence no need to fast charge. The owner drive to and from work and some more (let's say 200km) during a day, then go home plug-in and then the next day the car is ready for a new day fully charged....

    There wil of course always be those who drive 1000km per day and need to pace at 250km/h. For this category of drivers a diesel will be the viable option the coming years still. And that's perfectly fine! In 10 years fast charger along motorways will be able to charge quickly enough even for this category of drivers and at that point that driver can look into the EV options in 2027...

    My main point here is that the debate is a bit skewed and based on petrol filling patterns. It just does not compare with EVs. Like I wrote in my previous posts, most cars will probably never even need to visit a fast charger.

    One example just two weeks ago.... I and my girlfriend joined a friend of mine who own a Tesla S85D (small battery). We travelled to a summer cottage to visit some friends that was about 250km out in the sticks. We drove that stretch without stopping for a charge. When we arrived in the late afternoon the car was plugged in to a normal socket in the summer cottage, we enjoyed a dinner and slept over. Next morning we jumped in to a fully charged car and drove the same way back without charging. My friend then plugged his car in that evening and the car was fully charged the next day..... This is just one example where we drove 500km without the need for fast charging.

    Charging sockets are everywhere already... Talk about convenience! And it's cheap!

    I do not know your financial background or how you live but I'd say that the majority in Europe lives in condos and leave their cars on the road at night, not even in a garage. You clearly think and see the future from your personal point of view and lifestyle but unfortunately the majority of the population lives differently. Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Lot's of charging stations are built up in cities where people who live in condos park their cars overnight. They're actually currently often not very congested because there are not yet so many EVs on the road.

    In Norway for example where EVs currently sell very well due to tax benefits etc have huge amount of charging points in public streets, public parking garages etc. Certain areas around condos are reserved for EV parking with ongoing charging. So the people who don't have the possibility or financial situation to garage their car can still plug it in over night and charge. And there are new charging stations added each day. Charging infrastructure will for sure continue to be built up to support the different individual needs.

    And even if there will not be charging sockets in every street, the ones who can't plug their car in overnight still can go and visit a fast charger and charge it up. One example could be that a local supermarket install lot's of fast chargers. People go there and shop food for 30 min and fast charge their car and then they drive home and park their car up fully charged without plugging it in.

    Also many of those people who live in a condo use their car for traveling to work. Maybe then they can turn around their charging behavior and charge up at work every day instead and charge during the 8 hour working day vs others charging over night.

    Then there is the category of people who live in condo that have a car but seldom use it and are not at all interested in cars like we are in here. They will probably not own a car in 10 years and maybe share a car with smart services that are developed... autonomous car sharing etc.

    The main thing here is that there are many different solutions to the "problem" and the solution will also be different for different individuals and their needs.

    A normal street parking in Norway can look like this.... 


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Do people in Norway sleep on grass? 

    wohnblock.jpg

    This is how many regions look here in Germany with condos. There is no space for charging stations.

    Construction ground in Germany is rare and expensive, in cities basically SUPER expensive.

    There are of course smaller buildings but even smaller buildings have at least 10-20 people living in them, so you need at least 5-10 charging stations directly in front of the house...where there is no room for that. They have no room for children playgrounds or parking spaces but you think they have room for charging stations?  Unless of course they transform the parking spaces to charging stations but since we already have a huge deficit in parking spaces in cities, this would add to the problem, not solve it.


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Why showing that image? Probably many who live there don't even own a car. It would be more appropriate to view a image of where they park their petrol cars?

    If there is a parking spot for a petrol car, that same parking spot can for sure be upgraded with a small EV pole charger.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    This is another good example of innovation that take use of existing infrastructure. This example is from central London. The company behind the product is German Smiley

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:

    Why showing that image? Probably many who live there don't even own a car. It would be more appropriate to view a image of where they park their petrol cars?

    Of course they have cars, basically every social help recipient has a car here, even if they aren't supposed to have one in many cases. Smiley

    If there is a parking spot for a petrol car, that same parking spot can for sure be upgraded with a small EV pole charger.

    Usually, the parking spaces are not really marked, we call it "wild" parking. You have to have a certain permit though, otherwise you get a ticket if you don't live there. Basically impossible to offer charging stations for these parking spaces because it would require marking them. Also, who would pay for these THOUSANDS of charging stations in one city only? The government? The car manufacturers? The people through taxes? Power (electricity) companies (which have been "burned" by the government with their nuclear plants recently, I am pretty sure they aren't to keep to risk it).

    Speaking of nuclear plants: We already have a very sensitive and volatile electricity grid in Germany because of the switch to "green" energy like solar or wind. Now guess what happens if we suddenly add hundreds of thousands of electric charging stations to it. Of course this can be avoided by adding capacity but again I have to ask you: WHO pays for it?!


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:

    This is another good example of innovation that take use of existing infrastructure. This example is from central London. The company behind the product is German Smiley

     

    Various issues with this concept: 

    1. It is a solution of many (there are many other similar solutions out there but we need a "standard").

    2. Cable too long or not long enough, also the driver needs to have it in the car (counter is embedded into the cable). What about pedestrians, dogs, vandalism (speaking of charging cost and disputes), theft (cable alone costs over 300 EUR), etc.?

    3. How much would it cost to add each of these to every available parking space in cities and who pays for it (I assume some sort of lease or rent concept would be viable).


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Speaking of nuclear plants: We already have a very sensitive and volatile electricity grid in Germany because of the switch to "green" energy like solar or wind. Now guess what happens if we suddenly add hundreds of thousands of electric charging stations to it. Of course this can be avoided by adding capacity but again I have to ask you: WHO pays for it?!

    Of course it will require initial investments to put upp charging infrastructure. No different from when combustion engine cars replaced horses 100 years ago. Infra for petrol stations were built up etc. At that point in time 100 years ago the infra for petrol stations and also the oil supply were of course not even remotely close to what we have today.

    The electricity grid is in many ways built to manage peaks. There is very seldom energy storage and it's built for handle "on demand usage". When you switch on your light you get energy from the grid. I've read that in certain areas it's only 5% usage of the grid capacity most hours per day, but they are built to handle peaks which is very expansive. Imagine then what will happen when batty costs go down and we can store energy in batteries to offload the peaks and can load balance in a much more efficient way. Most of EV charging will also take place during night when the current grid is less in use and the capacity is there without being used. And on top of this you can add that there are many inovations around the corner when it comes to generate electricity.

    Chargers also does not need much maintenance. When connected and installed to the grid they will just be there serving it's purpose. Compare with petrol stations where Fuel Lorries need to refill petrol/diesel all the time. Chargers can be installed in all kind of places where a petrol station never could be built for obvious reasons. Electricity grid is well built up already and it's quite easy to expand further.

    People who charge will also of course pay for the electricity in the same way that they otherwise would have to pay for petrol at the pump. Also many other business opportunities will pop up that will take some of the investments...e.g. a local supermarket can invest in chargers and offer free charging to gain customers from other supermarkets that doesn't offer the same deal and so on. 

    And with all this we haven't even touched the other positive effects with cleaner, healthier and more silent cities which to most is a welcome thing.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    I know pretty well how the electricity grid works in Germany, I am very interested in tech, remember? There were several articles about the issues with peak consumption and how the grid in Germany will face serious issues handling it. They are already using new battery tech for various situations but it isn't enough and only works mainly in the summer. With hotter summers and colder winters, energy consumption (especially in peak moments) will go up, not down.

    As long as people are happy with petrol cars and as long as they feel comfortable with them and have no incentives to switch, ELVs will not be successful. 

    Right now, I do not see much pressure in Germany to switch to ELVs, not even a bit.

    It will change of course but it will take years, probably a decade or more until it even starts seriously.

    Then, the major car manufacturers will be ready. It is part of the strategy.


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Get off my lawn!


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Most charging is done off peak.

    I could easily see a business case for a private company to build/install/own the charging poles and use your credit card/debit card to swipe and buy a certain amount power just like you pay for parking. Or have cities do it like public parking or the power companies do it where they can make a bigger margin on the electricity. 

    Inner city people are already moving away from cars and going to ride sharing etc. Looking at my office none of our young guys have a car that live downtown (which is almost all of them and I'm in investment banking it's not like they don't have the money...) and I know of two other Managing Directors who don't own a car (and they both make more than enough to drive almost anything they would want). One is a good friend and lives about 1km from me. He says it's faster to take the streetcar from his house to drive, there is a grocery store within 300m of him and the office building a block away from our office has a Hertz and Enterprise car rental that only carries high end cars (I rented a Jag F-Pace a few weeks ago) when he needs a car.

    The above isn't abnormal in Toronto. My wife and I drive the 10 minutes to work mostly because it's "adult" time in the car when we can actually talk without the kids but otherwise it's just as easy to take the subway. Youth and affluent people are moving back into the downtown in droves and the reason for having a car decreases. Space for them does too (I only have one parking space for instance on our property and one street parking sticker).


    --

     

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

     


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Please don't forget to send your unwanted petrol powered cars down to Africa.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Spyderidol:

    Please don't forget to send your unwanted petrol powered cars down to Africa.

    Smiley Smiley Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Might be anecdotal but in our brainstorming phase deciding on an X or not, we figured that with a 250-280 miles real range, we would never have to use a remote charging station ever in the duration of the vehicle ownership. And for the unforeseen case, we would just use another car... In our case 400V vs 800V would be totally irrelevant, we are not even planning to install full superchargers at the house, just 40A is more than enough but two vs one.

    For a long time EV will not be for the lower middle class and below, who are the ones that are "wild parking" and live in condos. Everyone else has a dedicated space to park. By then maybe they will be able to charge at work for example, or technology will has already moved to a charging experience close enough to gas stations, like charging while doing groceries or going shopping. 

    Surely Tesla shouldn't have any trouble upgrading their stations to 800V if necessary and have probably planned it already.


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    RC:
    Spyderidol:

    Please don't forget to send your unwanted petrol powered cars down to Africa.

    Smiley Smiley Smiley

    Why is this funny? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    lukestern:
    RC:
    Spyderidol:

    Please don't forget to send your unwanted petrol powered cars down to Africa.

    Smiley Smiley Smiley

    Why is this funny? Smiley

    It is funny in two ways:

    1. We are arguing about the end of petrol cars at a very high level because many in Africa can only dream of these cars we want to get rid of and would gladly accept them at a very low price (or for free).

    2. We will surely use Africa as a way to get rid of our petrol friends, bringing more pollution and trash (cars need to be scrapped at some point at the end of their lifecycle) to Africa (which may not be really "funny" but you get the point).


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Model X Thread Closed

    Remote diagnostic is something Tesla do already today for the entire fleet. Benefit for both the customer and Tesla for obvious reasons. Customer speak with tech support over the phone and they can login to the car and see log-files and whatnot about the car in realtime OTA. Cool!

     


     
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