Crown

kudryavchik:

Leawood911:

Wonderful Monday everyone!  What an amazing discussion. Thanks guys. In the long run we need better battery tech - Cobalt free specifically. It is hard to imagine Diesel and gas having more potential at this point than the advances we will see in the next few decades with batteries and nuclear.  I just don’t see ICE having the same potential into the future.  
The good news is that we as car enthusiasts will get quicker and better cars in the bargain. Will there be some nostalgia for the ICE cars?  Of course - we also know pretty well which cars will increase in value as a result and which you won’t be able to give away. We are in the perfect spot for this shift and opportunity. 
 

Lastly - stop selling your freedoms at the ballot box. Fire the socialists. Period.  Big government everywhere is the same. We are their crop and their are the farmers. They pretend the crop votes and then pretend to do what we asked them to.  Apologies to any farmers on this thread. 

Leawood, the interesting thing is that the current battery tech has already reached its limits. And, unfortunately, the solid state electrolyte doesn't show anything revolutionary... The capacity per kilo is higher, but not in times. tens %. Also, currently I see no way to decrease the charging time. Considering that you need 40-50 mins to charge 60-70% (ideal conditions) you will need 4-5 times more electric stations than traditional gasoline.

Also, electric mobility will shift the cars more into gadgets. Decrease of lifecycle, more dependance on updates and software, also all electric motors are the same. It means the cars will be iphones. Iphone X or Iphone 13 - no difference on user experience, same soft. Only better camera, bit brighter screen and performance evolution. In 7 years it will be turned off from services, buy new one, old will be unusable 

I called that almost 3 years ago when I bought my first EV, the e-Tron. 

EVs by nature, are disposable cars. Nothing more. 

No one in the year 2048 will say boy I missed my father's Model 3, I am going to hunt down the perfect Model 3. Those will be in a landfill somewhere rotting while someone else is still trying to figure out how to recycle the damn thing.

Normal cars however aren't disposable. (well maybe the Camrys and Yugos) (actually scratched that, I met someone in Europe before that restores Yugos) Many here are hurting for old cars. 10-20-30-40 year old cars. Restoring them and such. Heck I have 2 in the garage right now approaching 30 year old and I am trying to find a 3rd. 

As mentioned the number of charging stations for some of us is mute. We charge at home 99% of the time and spend zero time waiting for charging or going to get gas.  Your options to charge may vary.  Over 27 k miles I have spent maybe 5 hours waiting for charging. 
Witness the resale value of the Model3 if you worry about it being disposable. In fact you can’t buy it after the lease. They want it back. Who does that?  From what I can see a million miles would be easy for this car. Even today a battery pack replacement is less than $10 k. When it needs one it will be half that and better tech. It is far from disposable.  We have not seen that disposable quality in 10 year old Teslas either.  Not to mention the over the air updates which keep all the updates the new cars are getting coming to all cars. They could be more open about their party repairs as the fleet ages  

All the other EVs - I can’t speak for them. They are pretty much doomed unless they figure out how to do much better. 
Lucid shows promise. So does Rivian.
The statement that battery tech or electric tech has nothing else to discover when we have not even started receiving the new 4680 Tesla cells is priceless. But when combined with a belief we need four times as many charging stations as fuel stations it explains it all. Whoopsy would agree though. 

Just a simple question. Will you in 30 years trying to find and buy a 2018 Model 3?

And again, home charging is not the solution. More than half the world's population won't have access to a home charger for various reasons. You are the special case, the lucky one, that can install a home charger to charge at home.

If EV chargers are as quick and numerous as gas stations right now, I won't be bothered to even install a charger at home. So much easier and quicker to just pop by somewhere for a quick charge.

Whoopsy:

Just a simple question. Will you in 30 years trying to find and buy a 2018 Model 3?

And again, home charging is not the solution. More than half the world's population won't have access to a home charger for various reasons. You are the special case, the lucky one, that can install a home charger to charge at home.

If EV chargers are as quick and numerous as gas stations right now, I won't be bothered to even install a charger at home. So much easier and quicker to just pop by somewhere for a quick charge.

 

I hope that in 30 years all teslas will become the coca cola cans:-) bad quality cars and, from what I see - quite dangerous (lots of defects). Previously car companies recalled such products...

About the houses, fun fact, in Russia about 30% of houses dont have normal toilet. 70% of people dont have foreign trip passport and about 85% live from wage to wage without the possibility to collect some money (for a bad day f.e.)
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sportcars-history.com

Leawood911:

As mentioned the number of charging stations for some of us is mute. We charge at home 99% of the time and spend zero time waiting for charging or going to get gas.  Your options to charge may vary.  Over 27 k miles I have spent maybe 5 hours waiting for charging. 
Witness the resale value of the Model3 if you worry about it being disposable. In fact you can’t buy it after the lease. They want it back. Who does that?  From what I can see a million miles would be easy for this car. Even today a battery pack replacement is less than $10 k. When it needs one it will be half that and better tech. It is far from disposable.  We have not seen that disposable quality in 10 year old Teslas either.  Not to mention the over the air updates which keep all the updates the new cars are getting coming to all cars. They could be more open about their party repairs as the fleet ages  

All the other EVs - I can’t speak for them. They are pretty much doomed unless they figure out how to do much better. 
Lucid shows promise. So does Rivian.
The statement that battery tech or electric tech has nothing else to discover when we have not even started receiving the new 4680 Tesla cells is priceless. But when combined with a belief we need four times as many charging stations as fuel stations it explains it all. Whoopsy would agree though. 

Leawood - about the amount of stations its a simple math. Count the average refilll and average charging time (so named turnover for one customer) and multiply to demand. Also keep in mind that except of stations you will need the electricity station nearby, otherwise you will not be able to transport the electricity. The longer the wire the more losses on voltage you have. Simple.

Also, today you are able to charge at home, its ok for now. But its your scenario. There are more cars in the world than homes:) 

My scenario, fe 4000-4500 km car trips 5-6 times a year from moscow to prague and vice versa in 40-45 hours (20 hours one way). Airplane is not always suitable for me for a number of reasons, especially now. So imagine how long will it take to me to charge the ev crap every 300-350 km))) so, ev is also the instrument of mobility limitation :-)
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sportcars-history.com

Also - One flip of a switch from our rulers and no one is mobile after a couple of hours.

Spyderidol:

Also - One flip of a switch from our rulers and no one is mobile after a couple of hours.

Or trojan. But everything will be simpler. For now the usage of ev is cheaper, but as soon as the socialists kill the ice they will squeeze the customers balls 😜 now in norway the socialists increase the taxes for the cars more expensive than 600k nok to 25% ))) 

Also, currently in most countries the fuel price contains the transport taxes (for road reconstruction). How will you get this tax for ev? Simple, this tax will be paid by everyone who use electricity or socialists will pick the tax every km you travel (gps tracking - we all know the new cars are mandatory to have the gps/glonass emergency call device). Its nice to live now, because our grandchildren will live in dense cities in 5-10 m2 flats in ar helmets (no mobility) and, what i afraid the most no sex - everything virtual. Scheiss

sportcars-history.com

kudryavchik:

Leawood911:

As mentioned the number of charging stations for some of us is mute. We charge at home 99% of the time and spend zero time waiting for charging or going to get gas.  Your options to charge may vary.  Over 27 k miles I have spent maybe 5 hours waiting for charging. 
Witness the resale value of the Model3 if you worry about it being disposable. In fact you can’t buy it after the lease. They want it back. Who does that?  From what I can see a million miles would be easy for this car. Even today a battery pack replacement is less than $10 k. When it needs one it will be half that and better tech. It is far from disposable.  We have not seen that disposable quality in 10 year old Teslas either.  Not to mention the over the air updates which keep all the updates the new cars are getting coming to all cars. They could be more open about their party repairs as the fleet ages  

All the other EVs - I can’t speak for them. They are pretty much doomed unless they figure out how to do much better. 
Lucid shows promise. So does Rivian.
The statement that battery tech or electric tech has nothing else to discover when we have not even started receiving the new 4680 Tesla cells is priceless. But when combined with a belief we need four times as many charging stations as fuel stations it explains it all. Whoopsy would agree though. 

Leawood - about the amount of stations its a simple math. Count the average refilll and average charging time (so named turnover for one customer) and multiply to demand. Also keep in mind that except of stations you will need the electricity station nearby, otherwise you will not be able to transport the electricity. The longer the wire the more losses on voltage you have. Simple.

Also, today you are able to charge at home, its ok for now. But its your scenario. There are more cars in the world than homes:) 

My scenario, fe 4000-4500 km car trips 5-6 times a year from moscow to prague and vice versa in 40-45 hours (20 hours one way). Airplane is not always suitable for me for a number of reasons, especially now. So imagine how long will it take to me to charge the ev crap every 300-350 km))) so, ev is also the instrument of mobility limitation :-)
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sportcars-history.com

 

As I have said in the past - if you can’t charge at home then don’t get an EV. If you can then all the noise above does not apply. I never sit around waiting for a charge. Not one minute. This does not apply when charging at home. There are millions of homes which can do this.   The actual amount of electricity I use is minimal. Maybe less than $.50 a day on average. 
lit is not that I’m luck to have a home to charge - if is that there are millions of homes this lucky which are not doing this yet. Having a place to charge while the car is in its long term parking spot is far more critical than super chargers.  I like what Lucid is doing with his directional charging. That is a real benefit and something I hope Tesla will soon do. 
For now my soon to be come can is doing perfectly well. It is holding up far better than any other car I have ever owned. 
All cars are coke cans after ten years. Only a few are exceptions worth restoring. Look at a ten year old S Class. Are you saying it will run forever and be worth keeping it running ? 
 

In terms of energy independence - with an ice car you depend on a whole lot of infrastructure.  Can you pump oil? Refine gasoline?  Did not think so. You can buy a couple solar cells and charge your car. You can even buy a windmill. If you are really concerned about the government controlling your power and life to that extent you definitely need a on EV.  That is about the only solution. 

Dear Leawood. The difference between our thesis is that you describe your position through your own experience (its mistake because your scenario is your and its not the only right to exist; when I did consulting for rus gov or tv interviews i cant say the bus is bad because my aunt waited it for 15 mins), i put my thesis through statistics. You have a home to charge the ev. How many people have the home with the charger? 5%? Less? 

You say that those who dont have the home with the charger should buy ice car (typical not in my backyard behavior). But governments kill the ice and by 2030-2035 they say no more new ice cars. Then what will happen? Answer - no mobility. Wait some time, soon the socialists will give you some additional taxation so every day you will think - should i charge my car or not (every not in my backyard soon or later comes to yours). Its cheap for now, but we all know - free cheese is only in mouse trap. Current ev taxation, like the sharing economics - is the mouse trap. Simply look what happen with the ownership model - it dies. New generations prefer rent - they cant afford ownership. 

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sportcars-history.com

The government forcing us or otherwise supporting EV industry with our tax money is criminal. Period. I think you underestimate how many car owners could charge at home or their apartment. By a lot. 
Where there is a genuine need and profit potential progress will automatically take place.  Far more people have smartphones or some type of electric appliance. They don’t travel miles and wait to plug these in and charge them. In a short while a car will be no different.  How many people who own a car live without electricity?  Will we ever have gas stations in our house?  In the end something like gen 3 or 4 nuclear will provide huge amounts of abundant energy. The only thing in the way are politics and huge energy lobby protecting their profit. 
when I say buy an Ice car if you can’t charge at home I am simply demonstrating that I am not some EV evangelist. They would suck if you can’t charge at home.  Just being honest -  it has nothing to do with not solving the government problems interfering problem. 

Leawood911:

The government forcing us or otherwise supporting EV industry with our tax money is criminal. Period. I think you underestimate how many car owners could charge at home or their apartment. By a lot. 
Where there is a genuine need and profit potential progress will automatically take place.  Far more people have smartphones or some type of electric appliance. They don’t travel miles and wait to plug these in and charge them. In a short while a car will be no different.  How many people who own a car live without electricity?  Will we ever have gas stations in our house?  In the end something like gen 3 or 4 nuclear will provide huge amounts of abundant energy. The only thing in the way are politics and huge energy lobby protecting their profit. 
when I say buy an Ice car if you can’t charge at home I am simply demonstrating that I am not some EV evangelist. They would suck if you can’t charge at home.  Just being honest -  it has nothing to do with not solving the government problems interfering problem. 

Dear Leawood, smartphone is smartphone. You can charge it anywhere. Under home I mean private home. Ok, even with the flats with underground parking - its ok. But how many people have a private home or the flat with underground parking to charge a car? All these 90-95% will depend on stations. Even we are, if we plan to travel by car. 

About politics i believe we agree with each other :)

sportcars-history.com

Politics is all that really matters.   Cheers!

time will sort out the rest. Maybe I should have used clothes dryer?  That is all the power required to level 2 charge at an acceptable rate.  I find it hard to believe that this need will not be filled. 

here is a bird's eye view of a typical American housing complex. See all those outdoor parking stalls? How you going to wire in 240V dryer grade sockets to each and every one of the stalls?

What about this apartment complex? 3 buildings surrounding a central covered parkade. There must be 300-400 parking stalls in it. How you going to wire in EV chargers for all the stalls? How big a transformer you want to install to supply power into the parkade?

Only a small percentage of Americans lives in subdivision like this where one can tap into the sub panel and install a EV charger.  Just this picture alone has about 80 houses. Working class people so they will all come home around 5-7pm, and all plugging in their EVs. Say they all have 30A chargers instead of 40A to ease the load. That's 576kW of power every night. So they all do their laundry too around the same time, and of course since it's dinner time, they all be cooking. Adds another mega watt to the local grid easily. Electric power don't materialize from thin air you know.

For EVs, home charging is a luxury. The mass public will need public charging stations in order for EVs to work properly. 

And totally new electricity grid. Its not the vents or solars, not even transformators. Its, how to say... private energy stations)). I am even silent about how many wires, thick ones, possibly with the coolant ones are needed. Ecology is such ecology...

Ev will be a total flop and its pity that porsche is a part of this...
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sportcars-history.com

Even if it's a flop, it is here to stay. 

But EVs are the perfect city car. The low end torque is great for stop and go traffic and with emissions offloaded to power plants, away from population centres, its great fro air quality also. 

Are they the perfect car? Nope. Do they have a place in society however? Absolutely. 

Politicians just need to wake up and realize their infrastructure is far far behind on what they wanted to do that's all. 

kudryavchik:

Ev will be a total flop and its pity that porsche is a part of this...
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sportcars-history.com

 

+100

Unfortunately they don't really have a choice at the moment....although I do think they do go overboard on their "wokeness".

Whoopsy:

Even if it's a flop, it is here to stay. 

But EVs are the perfect city car. The low end torque is great for stop and go traffic and with emissions offloaded to power plants, away from population centres, its great fro air quality also. 

Are they the perfect car? Nope. Do they have a place in society however? Absolutely. 

Politicians just need to wake up and realize their infrastructure is far far behind on what they wanted to do that's all. 

 

Small city car for carsharing like the ninebot - ok. The car for customer... i dont see the potential here... the more ev will be sold the sooner the problem will arise. Car makers have polished ice for 100 years  and only in 10 years they have reached the limit in ev. Battery tech... and no revolutions expected. So there are two scenarios i think: the stall of ev development or... we will move to hydrogen cells. Same e machne but hydrogen "battery". Its the way. Also not very eco from producing point of view - too much energy needed for electrolysis processes, but... like with oil factories the hydrogen production can be cantralised. Then simply transport fluid hydro like petrol (of course with different reqirements). But it is also not a thing of tomorrow, maybe after tomorrow

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sportcars-history.com

Andrew Frankel has driven the Porsche Mission R on track... 

Link:  https://www.instagram.com/p/CWWVHAulhXg/

...looking forward to hearing first impressions after the press embargo! 

Looks gisgusting, so probably drives the same))) 2 tons racecar, hilarious

sportcars-history.com

kudryavchik:

Whoopsy:

Even if it's a flop, it is here to stay. 

But EVs are the perfect city car. The low end torque is great for stop and go traffic and with emissions offloaded to power plants, away from population centres, its great fro air quality also. 

Are they the perfect car? Nope. Do they have a place in society however? Absolutely. 

Politicians just need to wake up and realize their infrastructure is far far behind on what they wanted to do that's all. 

 

Small city car for carsharing like the ninebot - ok. The car for customer... i dont see the potential here... the more ev will be sold the sooner the problem will arise. Car makers have polished ice for 100 years  and only in 10 years they have reached the limit in ev. Battery tech... and no revolutions expected. So there are two scenarios i think: the stall of ev development or... we will move to hydrogen cells. Same e machne but hydrogen "battery". Its the way. Also not very eco from producing point of view - too much energy needed for electrolysis processes, but... like with oil factories the hydrogen production can be cantralised. Then simply transport fluid hydro like petrol (of course with different reqirements). But it is also not a thing of tomorrow, maybe after tomorrow

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sportcars-history.com

 

That part about having reached the EV limit after only 10 years needs to be framed!  It is priceless. No battery improvements expected.  We are still learning about fossil fuels but know everything about electricity.  
This is good fun. History of human ingenuity has come to halt - but only for EVs.  
 

Dear Leawood. If we talk about the batteries and electricity transportation - yes, we are already almost at the limit. You are limited with 1000 volts. Dot. You are limited with the chemistry and you are limited with the problems with electricity transportation. Its not about EV, its about electricity as a whole. Physics, its not me, so you can frame it.

The EV, more precisely, the car with the electric drive will work when the electricity, that is enough to move it will be generated inside the car. Already, we have a hybrid, further we will see hydrogen. Its my forecast, I can be wrong of course. Of course after the energy crisis, which will happen because, unfortunately, to decrease the dependence from oil countries, the politicians have chosen the wrong way. EV in current form didn't work in late 19 early 20 century and will not work now. Time will show anyway

P.S. to be fair I am a bit tired to study you physics, you can't see outside the car, so I can't make you do it... 

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sportcars-history.com

kudryavchik:

Dear Leawood. If we talk about the batteries and electricity transportation - yes, we are already almost at the limit. You are limited with 1000 volts. Dot. You are limited with the chemistry and you are limited with the problems with electricity transportation. Its not about EV, its about electricity as a whole. Physics, its not me, so you can frame it.

The EV, more precisely, the car with the electric drive will work when the electricity, that is enough to move it will be generated inside the car. Already, we have a hybrid, further we will see hydrogen. Its my forecast, I can be wrong of course. Of course after the energy crisis, which will happen because, unfortunately, to decrease the dependence from oil countries, the politicians have chosen the wrong way. EV in current form didn't work in late 19 early 20 century and will not work now. Time will show anyway

P.S. to be fair I am a bit tired to study you physics, you can't see outside the car, so I can't make you do it... 

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sportcars-history.com

 

I'm sorry but a lot of that doesn't make sense. Where exactly is there a 1000v limit?

At the moment there might be an issue with transmission but there is no real physics reason that many of these things can't be dealt with. Battery tech is rapidly changing but going from a bench to a test to a car takes a long time. 

Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

 Whoopsy:

Even if it's a flop, it is here to stay. 

But EVs are the perfect city car. The low end torque is great for stop and go traffic and with emissions offloaded to power plants, away from population centres, its great fro air quality also. 

Are they the perfect car? Nope. Do they have a place in society however? Absolutely. 

Politicians just need to wake up and realize their infrastructure is far far behind on what they wanted to do that's all. 

Gladstone:

Golly folks! Not really sure this is the best thread for this post, but since city car has been mentioned here goes!

I had lunch with one of my cousins over the weekend. She is a rather successful engineer who has helped several family members with home purchases in the San Diego area (not exactly cheap real estate) and also helped raising her nieces. She was telling me that unlike her boyfriends Dodge Challenger with the Scat Pack option (485hp, 475tq) ; she drives an electric powered car. I of course figured the next word was going to be "Tesla" but instead it was "Leaf" !  Yes, a 10 year old Nissan Leaf which she was quite happy that just before the battery warranty expired, it dropped below minimum acceptable range; and got a new battery. She plans to enjoy many more years with the car that needs no oil change or gas (even with California electric rates). She very much enjoys the responsive torque. The real world range of 75 miles, no problem.

So yes I do believe that a 2 ton track toy EV will also find many buyers. Also don't think infrastructure will be too stressed charging "city" cars that don't even travel 100 miles for the day.

Gladstone:

 

Golly folks! Not really sure this is the best thread for this post, but since city car has been mentioned here goes!

I had lunch with one of my cousins over the weekend. She is a rather successful engineer who has helped several family members with home purchases in the San Diego area (not exactly cheap real estate) and also helped raising her nieces. She was telling me that unlike her boyfriends Dodge Challenger with the Scat Pack option (485hp, 475tq) ; she drives an electric powered car. I of course figured the next word was going to be "Tesla" but instead it was "Leaf" !  Yes, a 10 year old Nissan Leaf which she was quite happy that just before the battery warranty expired, it dropped below minimum acceptable range; and got a new battery. She plans to enjoy many more years with the car that needs no oil change or gas (even with California electric rates). She very much enjoys the responsive torque. The real world range of 75 miles, no problem.

So yes I do believe that a 2 ton track toy EV will also find many buyers. Also don't think infrastructure will be too stressed charging "city" cars that don't even travel 100 miles for the day.

 

 

I have actually said it many many times. The Nissan Leaf is a perfectly fine EV for people that mostly use it for city usage, no need for Autopilot or fancy FSD. It's basically no-frills transportation. 75 miles range is ~120km. That covers 99+% of the population's daily needs, no point in getting a 300 mile EV when one only uses 30 miles or whatever. There is a reason why the Leaf is the best selling most popular EV for the longest time, until overtook recently by the Model 3. 

My cousin actually daily a Leaf for many years now, he is a catering chef, so he just travel around town delivering food and stuff from his commercial kitchen. The 'limited' range isn't a problem when the travel circle is only the size of Downtown Vancouver. 

Our local Door Dash and Uber fleet are mostly made up of Model 3s now, they are perfect for what they use them for, the longer range is useful for that purpose. 

Like I said before, every category of EVs has their own purposes, there is no one size fit all EVs. Just like there isn't a one size fit all normal cars. 

Mithras:

kudryavchik:

Dear Leawood. If we talk about the batteries and electricity transportation - yes, we are already almost at the limit. You are limited with 1000 volts. Dot. You are limited with the chemistry and you are limited with the problems with electricity transportation. Its not about EV, its about electricity as a whole. Physics, its not me, so you can frame it.

The EV, more precisely, the car with the electric drive will work when the electricity, that is enough to move it will be generated inside the car. Already, we have a hybrid, further we will see hydrogen. Its my forecast, I can be wrong of course. Of course after the energy crisis, which will happen because, unfortunately, to decrease the dependence from oil countries, the politicians have chosen the wrong way. EV in current form didn't work in late 19 early 20 century and will not work now. Time will show anyway

P.S. to be fair I am a bit tired to study you physics, you can't see outside the car, so I can't make you do it... 

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sportcars-history.com

 

I'm sorry but a lot of that doesn't make sense. Where exactly is there a 1000v limit?

At the moment there might be an issue with transmission but there is no real physics reason that many of these things can't be dealt with. Battery tech is rapidly changing but going from a bench to a test to a car takes a long time. 

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/electrical-and-electronic-engineering-industries-eei/low-voltage-directive-lvd_en

Consumer electronics are limited in its voltage under the directives. 1000 volts for alternating current. To use more the requirements are totally different. Who knows, maybe evs will have 10000 volts in future, its possible, but i dont think its healthy. 

About the battery tech. Fundamentally there is a li ion battery from early 90s and despite its tech changing and the capacity per kilo grows, the tempo of this growth is not enough to move ice out of market (in case of fair market) and, for example, it will never happen in aviation.

We see new materials for cathodes and anodes, we see solid state batteries, but the steps are marginal compared to ice evolution. You can make nice powerful 3 or 4 cylinder ice weighting 50-60 kilo on traditional materials + 20-30 kilo of fuel and you have a nice city car. For ev you need minimum 400 kilo and it will not change dramatically even in 10 years (with batteries). Resuming, all this ecology and efficiency marketing is a total bs, that has nothing in common with real life. Its market and energy war, that will, unfortunately lead to very hard energy crisis.

P.s. i am almost sure, all porsche engineers believe ev is total crap, but it is said go and they go))

sportcars-history.com

Ps. Microwave oven magnetron has minimum 2000-2500 volts on cathode. Normal microwave oven has about 4000-5000 volts. I am not sure that the future consumers would prefer to boil their blood and body to the crispy crunchy strips:)))

High Voltage Rock'n'Roll 🤘
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sportcars-history.com

Whoopsy, 75 miles is enough range for 90% of the population, true BUT that's the usable range.

People that are very carefully with their money budget will try to protect the battery and the easiest way to do that is to keep it between 20% and 80% and only AC charging for 90% of a year. So the 75 miles become 150 miles at least in a real world scenario (I would say 200 miles to be safe). So the EV needs to have something like 200 miles when new.

Also, the same people will want to sell the car at a certain point and they will think about battery depreciation too. Most manufacturers if not all at the Leaf price point promise that after 7-8 years the battery will not drop below 70% capacity. For a 200 miles car 30% is like 60 miles so the range will drop to 140 miles but useable will be just 60% so something like 80 miles. Tough sale.

There is no try. Just do.

Pentium:

Whoopsy, 75 miles is enough range for 90% of the population, true BUT that's the usable range.

People that are very carefully with their money budget will try to protect the battery and the easiest way to do that is to keep it between 20% and 80% and only AC charging for 90% of a year. So the 75 miles become 150 miles at least in a real world scenario (I would say 200 miles to be safe). So the EV needs to have something like 200 miles when new.

Also, the same people will want to sell the car at a certain point and they will think about battery depreciation too. Most manufacturers if not all at the Leaf price point promise that after 7-8 years the battery will not drop below 70% capacity. For a 200 miles car 30% is like 60 miles so the range will drop to 140 miles but useable will be just 60% so something like 80 miles. Tough sale.

Li ion deteriorates during the time. Yes, you can charge in 20-80% range, but current, especially hi density li tech, dies after its manufacture. So the higher the dense the faster is deterioration. 

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sportcars-history.com

I tried to be hopeful and conservative in the same time.

Anyway, that's why a 300 miles range EV makes more sense. It's like a sweet spot.

 Taking everything under account and especially selling it at some point you need that range not so much for using it but to help improve the total lifetime of the vehicle (let's say at minimum 3 sales of the vehicle).

The second hand EV market will be wild for sure. I expect a severe price drop of such vehicles based on the consumer fear of getting a "bad battery" (even that all manufacturers have tools that can check the actual state of a battery).

There is no try. Just do.

Dear Pentium, in my humble opinion ev makes no sense at all (until these evs run on li battery). Only hydrogen or, who knows, maybe some time we will see very portable nuclear reactors that doesnt diffuse radiation.

Also, I think (of course i could be wrong, we are all humans)) the second market will die with the current evs. The battery is a whole car, nobody will buy ev with the dead cells, there is simply no sense. The current trend in all industries is to create one time used device that is almost not serviceable. The cars, being the sector of much longer cycles simply lags behind phones and computers. Later the manufacturers will program the parts to the car brains, so you even could not change the brake pads out of official service. Of course everything in the name of customers security, health, happiness and high standards of parts quality. Hi apple))

P.s. with evs forget about ownership, people will buy the right to use the car under manufacturer control (its named full life cycle management).
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