Time will tell, Ron. In Germany, SUV demand is very high.
I know there is a discussion about SUV safety in the US but with modern technology like ESP but also air suspension systems, this is actually like beating a dead horse. When I see what I can do with my ML55, I can't understand concerns regarding SUV safety. People have to be aware that they're not driving a lightweight sportscar but a heavyweight truck. If people are willing to adapt to this fact, I don't see any problem with SUVs. I can drive my ML55 very sporty but it is no sportscar. And yes, I have to adapt my driving style to it if I don't want to kiss the next tree.
The Cayenne is a very interesting product, especially because it uses pretty unusual technology like the air suspension and because the turbo version hits new SUV performance grounds.
But is it enough to sell well over the next few years? I don't know. Everything depends on the Cayenne's quality and on the new upcoming Mercedes/BMW SUVs. I think that the Cayenne is a little bit too small for the US market where SUVs like the Ford Expedition or Excursion are common cars on the streets. We have only one child and our ML is already too small for our little family. Yes, I have to confess that we travel with a lot of luggage. But so do Americans too, right?
The US is the most important Cayenne market. If the Cayenne sells well in the US, it will be a success. If not, Porsche is in trouble. The upcoming Mercedes GST is already playing in a different class with it's huge size. And if Mercedes adapts the right engine to it, it will be a bestseller. Due to the US production, Mercedes and BMW can charge much more attractive prices for their models. I'm pretty sure that the new ML55 will be far below the Cayenne Turbo price tag.
And here comes a problem for Porsche: they already positioned the Cayenne Turbo in a pretty high price segment. They can't go back and lower the price.
So there is a certain factor of the unknown in the Cayenne's future. It's conservative design could be another problem in the future. I don't know if customers would appreciate an overall facelift after two to three years of production.
Put the Cayenne next to a BMW X5 and a Mercedes ML. The Cayenne already looks old, the most modern SUV appears to be the X5 in my opinion.
Another problem might also be Volkswagen with the Touareg. VW needs to sell the Touareg in the US too. If they don't succeed with the V6, I'm pretty sure that we'll even see a V8 from VW on the Touareg, no doubt about it.
Another thing which stumbles me: VW claimed to have around 2000 pre-orders for the Touareg. Porsche claimed to have something around 100000 as far as I understood. This doesn't sound right if you ask me. And the fact that my dealer tells me how many orders he has but on the other hand offers me a Cayenne Turbo for spring delivery makes me even more cautious towards a Cayenne success.
To make it short: if the Cayenne sells well in the US, it will be a success. But unfortunately BMW and Mercedes won't permit Porsche to take over their most important market. And US manufacturers don't sleep either, I'm pretty sure that we'll see some highly interesting products from Ford and GM too.
Porsche entered a game they cannot win and cannot control. They hope however that they're able to play in the first league and win some of the games. I'm not sure this is enough to earn sufficient money.
Another problem could be the economic situation worldwide. SUVs are luxury cars, no doubt about it. An ordinary family cannot afford spending 40000-60000 bucks on a SUV.
Fuel prices are another concern for the future. And not to forget the USD. If the USD drops substantially vs. the EUR, Porsche is in serious trouble. BMW and Mercedes don't have this problem due to their US production facilities.
Just my personal opinion, nobody has to agree with me.