Nov 12, 2017 5:06:32 PM
- EnglishManInNY
- Expert
- Loc: Long Island NY. , United States
- Posts: 1477, Gallery
- Registered on: Sep 8, 2003
- Reply to: Whoopsy
Nov 12, 2017 5:06:32 PM
Nov 12, 2017 5:19:27 PM
noone1:Motorola was actually selling tons of phones for a very long time before they became a nobody. So in that case, VW and Porsche will catch up in about 15 years lol
Motorola was sooooooo dumb. They put the StarTak on the market, at that time a sensational and innovative cell phone. I paid 1100 DM for my first, at that time this was a lot of money for a simple cell phone and it was difficult to get.
Then, they introduced the successor, the Razr and instead of trying to stay innovative, they built millions of cheaper quality Razr in many different colors(!) over a period of years(!) and flooded especially the US market with these phones. At some point, they just missed the smartphone train and when they woke up, it was too late.
I do not see that happening with Tesla (right now) but the issues with the model 3 and the delays could give the competition a huge advantage.
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RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
JimFlat6:What is Teslas real end game? To be sold?
I don't think so, I really think Elon Musk has a vision but I just hope (for him and Tesla) that his vision isn't delayed and that he has some aces up his sleeves. Once the competition catches up and thinks it is profitable for them, they will put Tesla under huge pressure. This may take a while though...
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
Nov 14, 2017 2:36:40 AM
EnglishManInNY:Tesla is like Apple. They had a cool product but didn’t sell like windows. Then they went into mass manufacturing their cool product........
Apple wasn't the trailblazer like Motorola was. It was Motorola that put cell phone on the map, and the flip phone, just like how Tesla does it with the electric car with good enough range.
The brick phone was cool in it's era, so was the flip phone, just like a Tesla is cool and hip right now.
Whoopsy:EnglishManInNY:Tesla is like Apple. They had a cool product but didn’t sell like windows. Then they went into mass manufacturing their cool product........
Apple wasn't the trailblazer like Motorola was. It was Motorola that put cell phone on the map, and the flip phone, just like how Tesla does it with the electric car with good enough range.
The brick phone was cool in it's era, so was the flip phone, just like a Tesla is cool and hip right now.
Motorola just missed the moment to switch to smartphones. Selling millions of Razr flip phones in dozens of different colors may work for a year or two but afterwards? Huge mistake, this ruined them.
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
Just a reminder of how fast things can go south (even if I think that Tesla is in a much better position):
RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet (2015), Porsche Cayenne S Diesel (2017), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mini JCW (2015)
https://insideevs.com/seeing-car-analyst-says-tesla-model-3-fit-finish-relatively-poor/
Cracks have already started on the shiny armour of Tesla.
Nov 14, 2017 5:58:45 PM
I left the house four times yesterday and each time I ended up following a Tesla on my way. They are everywhere. Also, they no longer drive like maniacs from stop lights. That stopped about a year ago. They just blend in everywhere. Like Sonata and Accords used to.
They also get preferred parking spots with free charging. Even free Valet in some places. Why not join the dark side?
Nov 14, 2017 6:05:06 PM
Leawood911:I left the house four times yesterday and each time I ended up following a Tesla on my way. They are everywhere. Also, they no longer drive like maniacs from stop lights. That stopped about a year ago. They just blend in everywhere. Like Sonata and Accords used to.
They also get preferred parking spots with free charging. Even free Valet in some places. Why not join the dark side?
I already get that from driving the 918
SciFrog:Despite the nay sayers here, Tesla has the top spot in sales of luxury sedans for several quarters now... So indeed they are everywhere.
Depends how you define luxury. I would think the 5 series and E class are far more luxurious than the Tesla model S, they are similar in length. They certainly would not hold top spot against them.
Everybody with tight connections to the oil industry and their products or those short Tesla find every opportunity to create bad press. Nothing strange with that and just a normal reaction. Anything else would be a surprise.
The bad press will be positive press for Tesla in the long run as long as they continue to innovate and deliver. Even if the deliveries at times are well under the extremely high expectations and goals set out both from Tesla themselves and by externals. Tesla improve faster than any other auto manufacturer out there and it's cool being a spectator watching them stir the pot in such a conservative and slow moving industry.
The definition of luxury is in the eye of the beholder. Less is more and that's why I like Tesla. Their vision and willingness to innovate is cool and for that they deserve credit, not the other way around.
noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
Not convincing for a company that launched their first electric people mover just 5 years ago?
MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
a new brand takes 25% of an existing market segment which happens to be the most lucrative one due to high margins and it is not convincing? I guess we don’t have the same business sense...
MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
25% of a market of established veterans is quite an accomplishment if you ask me.
lukestern:MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
Not convincing for a company that launched their first electric people mover just 5 years ago?
Of course this is also kind of a success. However, the numbers (and the very moderate growth rates, I think about 4% last year) show the limited size of the market.
In other words (using the reference to Apple in one of the other posts): Apple had much higher growth rates than 4% p.a....
SciFrog:MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
a new brand takes 25% of an existing market segment which happens to be the most lucrative one due to high margins and it is not convincing? I guess we don’t have the same business sense...
The segment is a very small segment of the overall market. Thus, 20%-25% of this segment is close to irrelevant
To illustrate further: in the 80s Porsche probably had a share in the sports car segment of 60-70%. However, they nearly went bankrupt. A car company doing cars in the Tesla price range needs much higher output than they have to survive.
Nov 14, 2017 9:56:38 PM
It may turn out that BlackBerry is a more appropriate analogy for Tesla...
Can Tesla avoid becoming the BlackBerry of electric cars?
Link: https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/14/can-tesla-avoid-becoming-the-blackberry-of-electric-cars/
Nov 14, 2017 10:15:06 PM
SciFrog:MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
a new brand takes 25% of an existing market segment which happens to be the most lucrative one due to high margins and it is not convincing? I guess we don’t have the same business sense...
Not all that surprising as this sector of the market is 1) contracting as more move toward luxury SUVs and 2) the Model S is the shiny new bauble. The sales have tipped in many regional markets in the States as Model S/X sales are flat to faltering. This is reflected in Tesla's SEC filings.
Realistically, Tesla, while a noble first attempt, have far to go to become a sustainable major auto producer and the issues of Model 3 production only highlight the problems. Tesla is racing to generate cash flow to service its mountainous debt and the Model 3 is the tool to achieve that goal. Meanwhile, Musk received additional incentive options for meeting several milestones for the Model 3 including beta, alpha, and production goals. One can read this any way they would like.
MKSGR:SciFrog:MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
a new brand takes 25% of an existing market segment which happens to be the most lucrative one due to high margins and it is not convincing? I guess we don’t have the same business sense...
The segment is a very small segment of the overall market. Thus, 20%-25% of this segment is close to irrelevant
To illustrate further: in the 80s Porsche probably had a share in the sports car segment of 60-70%. However, they nearly went bankrupt. A car company doing cars in the Tesla price range needs much higher output than they have to survive.
Fun fact is that Tesla does make a profit on every Model X/S that they sell. A good profit even. In terms of volumes Tesla produced about 100k cars/year at present, which is only Model X/S. And the average sale price for a Tesla I would assume is not far off the average sale price of a Porsche?
In terms of volumes, not sure what that has to do with surviving? Ferrari produce about 6k cars per year? Or maybe 7k?
Porsche have grown volumes from 50k cars annually in 2002 with a multiple of 5 in 15 years. Impressive, but not disruptive.
The big difference with Tesla is that they go "all in" with aiming at a 500k annual production with the Model 3 so effectively all profit from the X/S sales together with investor money moves directly into setting everything up for this production level ramp up that is not far from incredible if they succeed. And the level of automation in the factory is beyond what everyone else is doing.
Even if Model 3 is delayed 6 months... there is no other player on the market that will be able to ramp up production speeds close to this in the BEV-segment. Not even GM can do that with their Bolt and have limited sales because they can't deliver from a manufacturing perspective. And German alternatives? None from a volume perspective the next 3-4 years.
If Tesla would have ramped up in "normal" pace and have a growth plan like a traditional car manufacturer they would have no issues being profitable already, but they aim quite much higher than that. That alone is something that has not been seen in the auto industry before. And as a spectator I enjoy watching it
Nov 14, 2017 10:41:02 PM
Tesla only “makes” money on each Model S/X through an accounting sleight of hand. It uses retail versus wholesale pricing in its revenue yet conveniently excludes the costs associated with its sales network in SG&A. It also has similar treatments for its R&D and Supercharger costs instead of allocating these important costs in COGS.
lukestern:MKSGR:SciFrog:MKSGR:noone1:How about they are the top sales for sedans in that price range? Seems appropriate rather than debating what it is and isn't.
But then: how much is their sales compared to all cars combined in this price range...
Not more than 20-25%... Despite being the only EV available. Not so convincing...
a new brand takes 25% of an existing market segment which happens to be the most lucrative one due to high margins and it is not convincing? I guess we don’t have the same business sense...
The segment is a very small segment of the overall market. Thus, 20%-25% of this segment is close to irrelevant
To illustrate further: in the 80s Porsche probably had a share in the sports car segment of 60-70%. However, they nearly went bankrupt. A car company doing cars in the Tesla price range needs much higher output than they have to survive.
Fun fact is that Tesla does make a profit on every Model X/S that they sell. A good profit even. In terms of volumes Tesla produced about 100k cars/year at present, which is only Model X/S. And the average sale price for a Tesla I would assume is not far off the average sale price of a Porsche?
In terms of volumes, not sure what that has to do with surviving? Ferrari produce about 6k cars per year? Or maybe 7k?
Please keep in mind that Ferrari or Porsche are in a much higher price and profit bracket than Tesla.
Also, I think Tesla's annual production was far below 100k cars?
Nov 15, 2017 8:56:13 AM
Boxster Coupe GTS:It may turn out that BlackBerry is a more appropriate analogy for Tesla...
Can Tesla avoid becoming the BlackBerry of electric cars?
Link: https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/14/can-tesla-avoid-becoming-the-blackberry-of-electric-cars/
Actually - this was my favorite business device ever. I loved that phone!
MKSGR:Please keep in mind that Ferrari or Porsche are in a much higher price and profit bracket than Tesla.
Also, I think Tesla's annual production was far below 100k cars?
Porsche higher price bracket? Average sales price for a Porsche vehicle in 2016 was $90k. Same figure for Tesla about $100k. Profit per sold vehicle of course Porsche is in another league for many reasons.
Tesla sold 80k cars in 2016 and estimate 100k for 2017 (after Q3 about 75k S/X delivered).