Crown

A small hedge fund manager threw shade at Tesla's Elon Musk at a private conference and said the stock is going to zero:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/stanphyls-mark-spiegel-makes-the-case-against-tesla-at-robin-hood-conference-2016-12

2015 981 Cayman GT4 | Powerkit White - The fastest car on Rennteam
2013 Audi S3 | Glacier White

Going to zero? No idea. Viable long-term business at this point? Don't know about that.

Tesla is trying to become an Apple of the car world. In other words, sell at a very premium price compared to competition even though core functionality and possibilities are the same. I really don't think this is going to fly in the car world because from what I see from the competition, Tesla only leads in that non-interactive aspect, and people don't really care about that when it comes to cars.

People would not buy a Tesla design with an ICE, but people would definitely buy Audi designs full electric drivetrain. When it comes to cars and the masses, people really don't care about the "how." The masses don't get excited about this V6 from Company A vs that V6 from Company B. As of right now, they are the only game in town for people who want and EV, but that's going to change very quickly. If they can't make a profit on $100K EVs without competition, how are they going to do it on $35K cars with competition?

That, to me, is the ultimate question to ask yourself regarding Tesla. If every other car in the price segment offered the same EV performance, would you still opt for a Tesla? I sure wouldn't.

Other opportunities for Tesla in the energy sector are a crap shot. Battery storage? Solar? Unless they have some crazy technology that no one else does, I don't see why you'd be excited about it. Too many high-tech companies have too much money and the barriers for entry in those industries are really just money and interest

 

noone1:

Tesla is trying to become an Apple of the car world. In other words, sell at a very premium price compared to competition even though core functionality and possibilities are the same.

This is not what Apple does. Their success has been based on a highly innovative product. And to this date they offer more than any competitor (in prticular, if you use more than one of their devices - device/software integration has been their USP since the 80s though, nothing new).

Tesla, on the opposite, is nothing special. They might find some buyers around SF/LA. But anywhere else in this world? In significant numbers? No way. The competition will just kill them.

What is the appeal of a Tesla?

If right now I need a electric car, the BMW i3 is top of my list. 

Smaller car, easier to park, and if only driven inside the city, the range advantage of a Tesla is useless. And if driving farther, then Tesla also loses out to a engine powered car. Biggest advantage of an i3 over a Tesla? i3 can be optioned with a backup generator!

Fit and finish is night and day, the BMW is miles ahead of the Tesla. Tesla interior just feels.........cheap.

20-30 years down the road, heck even perhaps 10 years, I KNOW BMW will still be there, will Tesla?

Haven't even mention the entry price. An i3 is what? Half the price of a Tesla. For a toy car, can't thing of anything that puts the Tesla on top.

Performance. Hmm, I think 4 of the cars I have inside my garage right now beats it. Think only the Odyssey and the SVR might be slower 0-60, but ask me again after about 3 runs. 

The appeal of Tesla is that were able to move electric cars into main stream consideration and consciousness as they made electric cars "cool".  They became a California status symbol.  However that does not make for a long term viable business as what is cool today is dated quickly.  They need to evolve to a main stream product and they know that, hence their push for a lower price product what will dilute the cool factor but make them long term viable.  The problem they have is that they need to do that before the other car manufactures catch up.. and arguments and evidence points to manufacturers catching and on the verge of passing them.  The Mission E from Porsche is a massive threat to Teslas high end niche they have had to themselves.

What Tesla have achieved is amazing. However with the german automaker recent push in EV, they are going to be in trouble. A Mercedes GLS EV or Audi Q7 EV would be in my garage now if it existed but I couldn't put the trigger on the P90D X which does not even exist anymore anyway (the other models are either overpriced or boring). They need to step up their interior ASAP to compete.

Someone did a study of Musks net worth versus the US subsidies he has gotten and the numbers are shocking. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html Certainly helped his lifestyle and bottom line.

NIO might bring some surprises. Their super car sounds awesome and if they can push their design language, performance and audio signature down to a street car they will do well.  Sorry Porsche, but the 960 looks old fashioned to me.

Musk made enough off Paypal that he wouldn't have to worry about anything.

I simply just don't see Tesla's business model. They sell a Civic equivalent quality car for S class prices. Yes the technology is expensive, but the interior is really really shit.

At least when I paid for my 918, I get an interior that MATCHES what I paid for. The technology inside the car is just a bonus.

When the shop hoisted the car up in the air, I can SEE what I paid for. A stupid carbon reinforced plastic giant tray that cost north of 20k. PCCB disc that cost 15k each, etc. Hell I see all the stuff that cost money when I visited the factory to see it getting built! What about a Tesla? Where did all the money one paid for goes into?

I can see it going to zero, but Elon is working hard to be one step ahead. The big players are now finally throwing serious money at the EV business to give Tesla competition. Best bet for Telsa was to have a competitive edge so big by the time that the big boys finally join the game they won't fight but become customers.. ie. a Mercedes-Benz, powered by Tesla. Because once the big boys have an EV, people won't go for Tesla much anymore. That's where they could potentially used their advantage. The TSLA stock is mighty over priced, and I've ridden that stock many times all the way back when it was $20. I sold all a while back and won't buy again. It's now actually way riskier an investment than 2-3 years ago.

1986 BMW 325i Cabrio Alpine Weiss/Black Leather - German Spec 
2006 Mercedes-Benz CLS 500 Black/Black Leather 

Ex: ''91 BMW 535i, '91 BMW 318i, '89 BMW 525i, '74 Mercedes-Benz 280E, '87 BMW 325is, '86 BMW 325e, '05 Ford Focus ZX4 S, '85.5 Porsche 944

Elon Musk is a visionary and the world needs people like him but I also hope he is clever enough to know when to stop and/or change direction. Sometimes, highly intelligent people get caught up in their own egomania and success and don't see a coming failure until it is too late.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

MKSGR:

noone1:

Tesla is trying to become an Apple of the car world. In other words, sell at a very premium price compared to competition even though core functionality and possibilities are the same.

This is not what Apple does. Their success has been based on a highly innovative product. And to this date they offer more than any competitor (in prticular, if you use more than one of their devices - device/software integration has been their USP since the 80s though, nothing new).

Tesla, on the opposite, is nothing special. They might find some buyers around SF/LA. But anywhere else in this world? In significant numbers? No way. The competition will just kill them.

They are all over KC as well. They routinely dust me at stop lights when they see me next to them. I don't even bother because the turbo can't touch them.  I get their appeal. 

Tesla Isn’t an Automaker. It’s a Battery Company

https://www.wired.com/2015/04/tesla-isnt-car-company-battery-company/

Apparently there is a new direct competitor to Tesla launching soon, called "Lucid" and with $700mio behind them...

Barrier to entry in all Tesla's businesses are low relative to who the competition is or could be. Toyota has more cash that Tesla is even worth, multiple times over. So many companies can produce/buy batteries and solar panels, or build factories, whenever they want.

Tell me a line of business and I can name you a slew of people with vast resources to compete whenever they decide they want to.
.

For the moment , TESLA  are the special cars to have . Over here you see them now more then Cayenne, or Mercedes E or BMW 5 . They are literally everywhere .

But..... european car makers have gotten an agreement to put electric  chargers all over europe's rest areas on the highways . These charger will work on any EU cars , but not on Tesla's .

Tesla are still cooler then any other EV , and kudos to them for having broken a new way of transport . But the big car makers are coming and they intend to kill the competition 

 964 Carrera 4 --  997.2 C2S , -20mm --  991 GT3 RS 

Gnil:

For the moment , TESLA  are the special cars to have . Over here you see them now more then Cayenne, or Mercedes E or BMW 5 . They are literally everywhere .

But..... european car makers have gotten an agreement to put electric  chargers all over europe's rest areas on the highways . These charger will work on any EU cars , but not on Tesla's .

Tesla are still cooler then any other EV , and kudos to them for having broken a new way of transport . But the big car makers are coming and they intend to kill the competition 

 Perfect analysis. If Tesla doesn't start with improving quality and design, they will be out of business sooner than they think. Look at Pebble (smartwatch), sometimes it comes back to haunt you when you're the first...

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Tesla is going heavily into the EU now, they are reading the same developments. That said, it will be a challenge as all major car markers throw money into EV platform/infrastructure development. 

1986 BMW 325i Cabrio Alpine Weiss/Black Leather - German Spec 
2006 Mercedes-Benz CLS 500 Black/Black Leather 

Ex: ''91 BMW 535i, '91 BMW 318i, '89 BMW 525i, '74 Mercedes-Benz 280E, '87 BMW 325is, '86 BMW 325e, '05 Ford Focus ZX4 S, '85.5 Porsche 944

Chevrolet Bolt leases are starting at $309 per month.

It just occurred to me that Tesla will be screwed if the major trend will be plug-in hybrid. Very likely this will be the development, why would one buy fully electrical (if not cheaper) if one could have unlimited range with the assistance of a traditional engine on board 

MKSGR:

It just occurred to me that Tesla will be screwed if the major trend will be plug-in hybrid. Very likely this will be the development, why would one buy fully electrical (if not cheaper) if one could have unlimited range with the assistance of a traditional engine on board 

Cause people think Tesla are cool 

MKSGR:

It just occurred to me that Tesla will be screwed if the major trend will be plug-in hybrid. Very likely this will be the development, why would one buy fully electrical (if not cheaper) if one could have unlimited range with the assistance of a traditional engine on board?

The reason hybrid is a trend is the imminent demise of diesel as a government and consumer favourite, for non-commercial vehicles of course. It gives all those  diesel owners a similarly efficient, and today at least, more acceptable power source than diesel when they buy their next car.  Full electric has so far been a more committed customer who would consider hybrids still not green enough. 

2011 Range Rover Sport S/C,  2009 Porsche 911S

MKSGR:

It just occurred to me that Tesla will be screwed if the major trend will be plug-in hybrid. Very likely this will be the development, why would one buy fully electrical (if not cheaper) if one could have unlimited range with the assistance of a traditional engine on board 

In Europe, hybrids will certainly have more success...at first.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Once batteries reach 150kw hybrid will be niche véhicules.

The markets will not go hybrid, simply because this is only a temp. solution and solves basically nothing except foor marginally improved fuel mileage.. EV will get their market share, and soon, you can tell by the way all the big players are investing heavy right now so as to not fall behind. They used to laugh at Tesla, GM CEO still does, but his empire hasn't produced anything nice in decades . Now, others are not laughing but assembling teams for R&D. 

1986 BMW 325i Cabrio Alpine Weiss/Black Leather - German Spec 
2006 Mercedes-Benz CLS 500 Black/Black Leather 

Ex: ''91 BMW 535i, '91 BMW 318i, '89 BMW 525i, '74 Mercedes-Benz 280E, '87 BMW 325is, '86 BMW 325e, '05 Ford Focus ZX4 S, '85.5 Porsche 944

Atzporsche:

The markets will not go hybrid, simply because this is only a temp. solution and solves basically nothing except foor marginally improved fuel mileage.. EV will get their market share, and soon, you can tell by the way all the big players are investing heavy right now so as to not fall behind. They used to laugh at Tesla, GM CEO still does, but his empire hasn't produced anything nice in decades . Now, others are not laughing but assembling teams for R&D. 

One could also argue the contrary: electric power is less efficient than an efficient traditional engine (even the power plant as such is less efficient as a modern car engine, even ignoring the additional efficiency losses that happen inside the car). The only reason for electric power in cars is the avoidance of emissions (exhaust and also sound) in city areas. Outside the cities a traditional engine will be more efficient. I.e. the combination of both concepts serves both areas best...

I still believe hybrids, especially in high performance vehicles and SUVs, will prevail at first.

As soon as battery and charging technology has been improved substantially, there will be a switch to fully electric vehicles.

Smaller cars, especially for city driving, will go fully electric from the start or much earlier than other cars.

I can also see buses, trucks and smaller delivery trucks/vans for city driving to go fully electric. 

Unless there is going to be substantial progress in battery/charging technology...affordable progress...I see more hybrids in the future, especially in Europe. 

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Atzporsche:

The markets will not go hybrid, simply because this is only a temp. solution and solves basically nothing except foor marginally improved fuel mileage.. EV will get their market share, and soon, you can tell by the way all the big players are investing heavy right now so as to not fall behind. They used to laugh at Tesla, GM CEO still does, but his empire hasn't produced anything nice in decades . Now, others are not laughing but assembling teams for R&D. 

The current electric car is a dead end. They run on 400V system. The new Porsche 800V system can basically cut the charging time in half, THAT'S the future.

Current charging stations are not numerous enough, it's a chicken and egg case.

The current future is hybrids. 

The future future might be electric. 

Ev is where things are going. Hybrid only exists because they can still apply the same technology and still have to produce ice anyway and charging infrastructure isn't there yet. VW plans for 20 EVs available in 2020. Fors, Vw, Daimler, etc plan for 4000 charging stations in Europe by 2020. Building the infrastructure isn't that difficult. Just requires cash, which these companies have plenty of.

Whoopsy:

Atzporsche:

The markets will not go hybrid, simply because this is only a temp. solution and solves basically nothing except foor marginally improved fuel mileage.. EV will get their market share, and soon, you can tell by the way all the big players are investing heavy right now so as to not fall behind. They used to laugh at Tesla, GM CEO still does, but his empire hasn't produced anything nice in decades . Now, others are not laughing but assembling teams for R&D. 

 

The current electric car is a dead end. They run on 400V system. The new Porsche 800V system can basically cut the charging time in half, THAT'S the future.

Current charging stations are not numerous enough, it's a chicken and egg case.

The current future is hybrids. 

The future future might be electric. 

My point exactly. Mass ELV transportation maybe beyond 2030/2040 or so but mostly hybrids to cover the gap period.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Whoopsy:

 

The current future is hybrids. 

The future future might be electric. 

And based on this: Tesla might survive some more years - but will never reach the "future future" with their product range when the market will dominated by hybrids (that Tesla cannot offer due to lack of expertise)