Crown

RC, you keep agonizing over the charging infrastructure; your concern is misplaced. As you may know, electric cars themselves are part of the grid when plugged in, and will play a role in energy storage. So the cars themsleve will charge/discharge each other, in round-robin or ping-pong fashion. Problem solved! 

RC:

CGX car nut:

Grant:

RC:

20000 per year, especially in the first year, is pretty much impossible for such a product...unless it is sensationally spectacular. 

And much more affordable than speculated so far...

One must consider the various government subsidies to promote the adoption of EVs as another incentive for the acquirer.  This is a major factor with Tesla.  Norway, for example, has set the way for subsidies to promote EVs.

The German government subsidies for ELVs don't apply for the (rumored) price range of the Mission E.

They will still exist in some parts of the world, for example, California.  Since California is a major market for Porsche, and its aggressive environment leans toward EVs with additional benefits besides a subsidy, the uptake for the Mission E is potentially significant.  

China is another area that will positively impact Mission E sales.

RC:

Macan911:

Agree on the charging infrastructure. Its the big unknown.

Wireless charging while driving, this would be huge. Or wireless charging at a charging station, another great step. Especially if it would take less than 5 minutes. The car "identifies" itself at the charging station, you can stay inside your car and do whatever you want and the car gets charged. Such a technology will be available at some point but I'm afraid I won't really be alive anymore when this happens. 

Induction charging is notoriously inefficient, especially, at higher charging "levels."  However, for in-house charging wireless has distinct ease-of-use advantages.

I wasn't talking about induction but true wireless, something we are going to see in a couple of years for our gadgets. Huge...oops...yuuuge challenge though, technically. I would be happy with a distance of 20-30 cm though but it is my understanding that everything above 60 cm poses some kind of technological barrier for now.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Great thread, folks.  Intelligent and thoughtful conversation.  

Overall, i am impressed with Porsche's commitment to Mission E--the car, the other models in the lineup, and the infrastructure necessary for consumer confidence and brand success.  Wow, is the automotive world changing at light speed, and Porsche iMHO is right onboard the space ship.  Management and engineers must be breathless from the effort.  

A note on cost--my neighbor has a new X, with various options.  Base cost around 80K, delivered cost with options over 130K.  i have seen at least 10 other Xs on the road here (don't know the options) but the market for a Mission E in that range seems to be there.  And a decently optioned 991.2 is at least in that 130K range….

$130K for that thing is such a joke.

You can't price a nice sporty Tesla X for less than $145k anymore...

RC:

I wasn't talking about induction but true wireless, something we are going to see in a couple of years for our gadgets. Huge...oops...yuuuge challenge though, technically. I would be happy with a distance of 20-30 cm though but it is my understanding that everything above 60 cm poses some kind of technological barrier for now.

True wireless, like lightning bolts streaking from the base to the car?

  ↵

RC:

I wasn't talking about induction but true wireless, something we are going to see in a couple of years for our gadgets. Huge...oops...yuuuge challenge though, technically. I would be happy with a distance of 20-30 cm though but it is my understanding that everything above 60 cm poses some kind of technological barrier for now.

True wireless, like lightning bolts streaking from the base to the car?

    Yes but minus the lightning bolts.  This is why I said that we might not be alive anymore when such a tech will be available.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

While I agree that a Tesla at 145K is a bit absurd, consider its appeal and its customers.  To an even marginally successful professional (say an annual income of 200-250K) the lease cost on a 145K car is less than 3K a month over three years, some of which is a tax write off.  The car is attractive and extremely fast in the straight line (sub 3.0 in the powerful versions),as well as quiet, unobtrusive, chic and unique in a world of gas-powered and boring vehicles.  Its owners feel proud and on the cutting edge of technology, and Tesla as a company seems exciting and successful (the latter is of course debatable).  

$3k a month is a very large some of money for someone making @250k a year for just one car...

exactly 14% of gross income to a rent "lease" a car, you'd have to be crazy 

1986 BMW 325i Cabrio Alpine Weiss/Black Leather - German Spec 
2006 Mercedes-Benz CLS 500 Black/Black Leather 

Ex: ''91 BMW 535i, '91 BMW 318i, '89 BMW 525i, '74 Mercedes-Benz 280E, '87 BMW 325is, '86 BMW 325e, '05 Ford Focus ZX4 S, '85.5 Porsche 944

Atzporsche:

exactly 14% of gross income to a rent "lease" a car, you'd have to be crazy 

Depends on how important that car is to you. 

I don't see a problem here, especially if you choose a business lease which is tax deductible. 

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Net of the tax effect, spending more than 10% of you income on cars is irresponsible for the middle class... Of course everyone is different, for example someone without rent or a mortgage could spend more, but the car money should be directed to the home bucket instead or even better to savings and retirement fund. Cars as a whole has gotten much better, there is always a good car that can suffice your needs for cheaper.

Most leased cars are leased by businesses, not private persons.

Only my R8 is a private lease but for a reason I cannot really unveil here. Fact is: I can afford it. At least for the next 44 months (after which the lease ends).

Interesting is also the fact that many (private) people cannot actually lease a car which may be too expensive for their income. All lease companies make a credit check and I know people who have a good income but still had issues getting a lease for a Porsche or McLaren because their credit check didn't pan out.

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

Perhaps I was a bit careless by using only the income/lease payment example.  Of course, everyone's financial decisions are unique, based on mortgage debt, savings, inheritance, bonuses, joint incomes, etc.  So let's take the too general example out of the discussion.  But that still leaves the fact that I have seen (and I have specifically counted) 6 new Tesla Xs in my city over the past two weeks, not including S models too numerous to count.  There is an appeal to  these cars, and someone is buying/leasing them frequently.

I personally would never buy a Tesla, but I can understand the attraction and benefits.

Agreed, I see more Tesla than german luxury top segment, but the numbers verify that.

Charging time moving to seconds?

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/97935/uk-tech-firm-unlocks-secret-to-charging-evs-in-seconds

Macan911:

Charging time moving to seconds?

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/97935/uk-tech-firm-unlocks-secret-to-charging-evs-in-seconds

I have read about so many similar "breakthroughs" but never ever heard of them again. We need to be careful with such news, especially since they don't even have a working prototype yet.

A breakthrough in battery charging and/or capacity technology is indeed necessary to give ELVs a proper push to the mass market but so far... 

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

RC:

Macan911:

Charging time moving to seconds?

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/97935/uk-tech-firm-unlocks-secret-to-charging-evs-in-seconds

I have read about so many similar "breakthroughs" but never ever heard of them again. We need to be careful with such news, especially since they don't even have a working prototype yet.

A breakthrough in battery charging and/or capacity technology is indeed necessary to give ELVs a proper push to the mass market but so far... 

One of the problems in reducing charging time is Ohmic losses caused by very high currents.  Even if a super-capacitor were found to be durable enough and had high enough energy density to compete with Li-ion batteries, there remains the Rs of the charge-transfer circuit to conquer.

Porsche's Mission E system (using 800 Volt battery stacks compared to the conventional 400 Volt systems) cuts the Ohmic losses in half for a given kilowatt-hour-per-minute charging rate.  Their charging system requires a very high current converter to produce 800V from normal electrical mains -- not cheap or easy.  Also, residential electrical surge capacity is pretty limited and sets a practical limit for how quickly one can charge by direct conversion from house mains to car charging with no intermediate storage device.

The super-capacitor idea might be useful as a trickle-and-dump technology wherein one capacitor is stationed at the "fueling" point and is constantly charging at a manageable low rate and then "dumps" its charge into the vehicle's capacitor very quickly.  This still has Ohmic losses to consider because the transfer currents would be orders of magnitude higher than standard charging schemes.  Lots of really hot copper buss bar about which to worry.

None of this "re-fueling" stuff is easy or cheap.

Mike

918 Spyder + 991 GT3 RS +Tesla Roadster 1.5 & Model S + Panamera Turbo +  BMW Z8 + BMW 3.0 CSi + Bentley Arnage T

Mike, I am not sure I understand all that you are saying, but it sure sounds impressive!  Thanks for the comments, and thanks to other posters on this thread for some good information (I think!)...

I think In gasoline terms, 

Charging a 400V system is like refuelling using a jerry can

Charging a 800V system is like going to a gas station and use the gas gun

Using capacity to recharge is like a race pit stop using dry break valves. 

RC:

Macan911:

Charging time moving to seconds?

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/97935/uk-tech-firm-unlocks-secret-to-charging-evs-in-seconds

I have read about so many similar "breakthroughs" but never ever heard of them again. We need to be careful with such news, especially since they don't even have a working prototype yet.

A breakthrough in battery charging and/or capacity technology is indeed necessary to give ELVs a proper push to the mass market but so far... 

I´m surprised to see a tech guy like you disbelieving on the ELVs evolution  By the time you deliver your R8 for a Bull  end of next year  charging a full battery will take few seconds  nowadays the tech evolution is lightning fast and  every manufacter is putting their eggs on this segment, it´s the future. V8, V10 and V12 will be Dinosaurs in no time, unfortunately 

--

J.Seven

J.Seven:

RC:

Macan911:

Charging time moving to seconds?

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/97935/uk-tech-firm-unlocks-secret-to-charging-evs-in-seconds

I have read about so many similar "breakthroughs" but never ever heard of them again. We need to be careful with such news, especially since they don't even have a working prototype yet.

A breakthrough in battery charging and/or capacity technology is indeed necessary to give ELVs a proper push to the mass market but so far... 

I´m surprised to see a tech guy like you disbelieving on the ELVs evolution  By the time you deliver your R8 for a Bull  end of next year  charging a full battery will take few seconds  nowadays the tech evolution is lightning fast and  every manufacter is putting their eggs on this segment, it´s the future. V8, V10 and V12 will be Dinosaurs in no time, unfortunately 

--

 

J.Seven

 

 

 

Technology moves fast indeed but not as fast as I always expected. Maybe because the tech isn't ripe, maybe because it doesn't make sense to put a product on the market which won't be accepted by a vast majority, I don't have a clue. In the past, companies put products on the market which were amazing but never really had a breakthrough. Until many years later, other companies put a similar but improved product on the market and were successful.

Yes, ELVs will, at some point, prevail. It will take a long time though, probably a couple of decades. Unless there is a technological breakthrough but I don't see it yet. I also believe that ELVs have better chances to penetrate the car markets if they are actually using the same design/look as conventional cars. Those super duper ELVs on the market, with the exception of the Tesla S maybe, look stupid.

I didn't quite understand that R8 comment of yours, do you really mean that in one year, there will be charging technology for ELVs which works in seconds? I have to disappoint you. Such technology won't be available in this decade...probably not even in the next. There are certain natural (laws of physics) limitations to charging and batteries, which need to be overcome first. Not easy.

--

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, Porsche Macan Turbo, Audi R8 V10 Plus (2017), Mini JCW (2015), Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT (2014)

RC driving pattern does not work for ELVs. He drives fast on the autobahn, accelerates heavily when possible, and takes occasional trips way beyond the current battery ranges. Luxury ELVs like Tesla already work for 90% of everyone else.

SciFrog:

RC driving pattern does not work for ELVs. He drives fast on the autobahn, accelerates heavily when possible, and takes occasional trips way beyond the current battery ranges. Luxury ELVs like Tesla already work for 90% of everyone else.

While true, the cost factor of a Tesla means it isn't for 90% of everyone else.  Teslas are expensive because the battery technology remains expensive.  If reports are believable, General Motors will lose $14,000 per Chevrolet Bolt and Tesla's internal numbers can't be that much better for its Model 3.  

Until battery chemistry or super-capacitors become less expensive to produce, EVs remain the provence of those better off financially.

I don't buy the pesimist scenario that RC is drawing.

We are in 2016. All combustion cars will be banned from the center of the cities. ELVs are already a reality. Tesla as a single company has improved a lot every aspect of his cars and now the big names are joining and putting big money on it.

Two decades for the required tech to make ELVs usable? Lmao, even nowadays you can drive 300-400 km with a single charge and you have 150-200 km in just 20 mins, pretty liveable figures if you ask me.

Only thing stopping EVs right now are battery prices. Range is a non-issue for the vast majority of people. I even posted a study not long ago by MIT that said something like 85% of drivers are accommodated even with today's EV range, let alone future improvements.

Battery prices/capacity simply have to improve and people need to just make a small effort to adapt. If you have a home/garage, you can live with any EV on the market today just fine. For the once a year trip that you want to drive across the entire US in 24 hours, just rent a car.

Not many people live in their own house with their own garage. For people that lives in apartments and townhouses it's really not a possibility for them to install a car charger at their own parking stall.