Crown

https://qz.com/1482646/california-police-have-a-way-to-pull-over-sleeping-tesla-drivers-on-autopilot/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=ya...

One part of the system where Tesla is already way behind Cadillac's self driving system.

Tesla used a system that can be gamed, Cadillac use sensors to track the human eye to see if the driver is paying attention. It is not a easy fix for Tesla. 

Whoopsy:

https://qz.com/1482646/california-police-have-a-way-to-pull-over-sleeping-tesla-drivers-on-autopilot/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=ya...

 

One part of the system where Tesla is already way behind Cadillac's self driving system.

Tesla used a system that can be gamed, Cadillac use sensors to track the human eye to see if the driver is paying attention. It is not a easy fix for Tesla. 

Blog on Tesla vs Waymo self-driving technology...

"Unlike Tesla, Waymo uses data and testing to make decisions. Five years ago, they let employees try out the tech for a few weeks. What Waymo found was extremely troubling. At first, users were nervous and didn't trust the car.  However, that quickly reversed and they came to trust the car too much. It's very hard for humans to pay attention when not making decisions. Waymo found that users simply were not able to take over control of the car in a reliable fashion. When partial autonomy failed, it became dangerous because the human was not prepared to take over control.

Tesla has learned this the hard way. Rather than testing, they just released the software on their customers. After a series of serious accidents involving AutoPilot, they've made various efforts to ensure the driver stays engaged.  The cars are not properly equipped to do this, so it's both annoying and ineffective.

This is why most of the energy in the space is directed towards FSD. It's widely believed now that partial autonomy is fool's gold. The repeated failures of AutoPilot have only underlined this. If the system is relying on a human for its ultimate safety, then it is not a safe system..."

Link: Tesla vs Waymo blog

Wonderbar:

 I may be the only one who thinks that Tesla and Porsche will not be DIRECT competitors. I agree that Porsche will steal some Tesla customers, and that Porsche will lose some sales to Tesla customers who are faithful to that brand. Overall, I think both companies will sell substantial numbers in the EV market niche.

For the first 12-36 months maybe not but they will get there eventually...

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

Whoopsy:

But later on when other manufacturers enters the market en masse, Tesla's majority market share will get reshuffled. Actually that makes it the only loser in the market place, but they won't disappeared for sure, unless of course Elon ran it to the ground again and runs out of money, again.

Incorrect. The established manufacturers have a hard time and challenge right now. If they make their EVs too good they will cannibalize on their own ICE-sales and THIS is the biggest challenge, not to compete with Tesla. Can't see anyone interested in a Panamera when the Taycan is launched and who on earth would buy an Audi A7 when the E-Tron GT is launched and why order an Audi Q5 when the E-tron exist. Tesla doesn't have these limitations and can move the goal post extremely quick.

I've said it so many times before.... The EV demand will be much higher than supply so all EVs will be sold. ICE cars in certain markets will face much bigger issues and will be difficult to sell at retail prices. The customer will get aware in a few years how much better an EV is for their needs.

When the Germans come, not just Porsche, Tesla won't be able to hold the high end of the market, the luxury market will not be theirs, they simply are not competitive against the better cars from Europe. But they could find a niche, near luxury market, like how Lexus and Acura are doing.

The definition of luxury is a subjective term and something that is changing. Not everyone want 200 options when they configure the car and 30 different types of cabin leather to choose from. The rennteam petrol head crowd is not representative for the market because the car is much more than a tool/commuter. It is beyond me that smart people in here can't think outside of this bubble.

Tesla offer a different type of luxury. A luxury that appeal to a lot of people.

I am happy to see so many posts about the Taycan in this thread... every time I see there are new posts, I hope to see new spyshots, hear new rumors., etc. I am turning into a Tesla hater slowly, not because of the car itself, but because the damned thing seems to pop up in each and every thread on this forum that remotely touches on the subject of EVs. Can we please, PLEASE create an EV topic and dump all that content in there?

Porsche, separates Le Mans from Le Boys

Joost:

I am turning into a Tesla hater slowly, not because of the car itself, but because the damned thing seems to pop up in each and every thread on this forum that remotely touches on the subject of EVs. 

....Tesla, the R8 of EVs...

2017 Range Rover Sport S/C,  2009 Porsche 911S

4trac:

Joost:

I am turning into a Tesla hater slowly, not because of the car itself, but because the damned thing seems to pop up in each and every thread on this forum that remotely touches on the subject of EVs. 

....Tesla, the R8 of EVs...

Hey...  Alright, I'm getting a Huracan Performante now but this doesn't mean you can insult the R8.  

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

Joist, the problem is that today the Taycan is vaporware since specs and price are not released. Despite all the unknowns, this thread turns into a Tesla death certainty because of a product that if comes out as rumored will kill the entire non 911 Porsche lineup. I am afraid until the Taycan is an actual product you can buy at your dealer, both sides of the argument will hold...

We need an EV section, right now EV content pops up everywhere, in a RT tradition...

lukestern:

Whoopsy:

But later on when other manufacturers enters the market en masse, Tesla's majority market share will get reshuffled. Actually that makes it the only loser in the market place, but they won't disappeared for sure, unless of course Elon ran it to the ground again and runs out of money, again.

Incorrect. The established manufacturers have a hard time and challenge right now. If they make their EVs too good they will cannibalize on their own ICE-sales and THIS is the biggest challenge, not to compete with Tesla. Can't see anyone interested in a Panamera when the Taycan is launched and who on earth would buy an Audi A7 when the E-Tron GT is launched and why order an Audi Q5 when the E-tron exist. Tesla doesn't have these limitations and can move the goal post extremely quick.

I've said it so many times before.... The EV demand will be much higher than supply so all EVs will be sold. ICE cars in certain markets will face much bigger issues and will be difficult to sell at retail prices. The customer will get aware in a few years how much better an EV is for their needs.

When the Germans come, not just Porsche, Tesla won't be able to hold the high end of the market, the luxury market will not be theirs, they simply are not competitive against the better cars from Europe. But they could find a niche, near luxury market, like how Lexus and Acura are doing.

The definition of luxury is a subjective term and something that is changing. Not everyone want 200 options when they configure the car and 30 different types of cabin leather to choose from. The rennteam petrol head crowd is not representative for the market because the car is much more than a tool/commuter. It is beyond me that smart people in here can't think outside of this bubble.

Tesla offer a different type of luxury. A luxury that appeal to a lot of people.

This is where your assumptions gone wrong.You can only think inside your EV world.

At the current market environment, EV isn't gonna 'replace' gasoline powered car en masse. It simply doesn't fit most people's needs. Without government subsidies, the price point simply doesn't fit into most people's budget. The current civic infrastructure also doesn't favour EVs, don't forget, most of the population are living in condos and apartment buildings, that don't aren't set up for EV charging, only select new developments planned for those and it's only been the last couple years. For a lot of people, moving to a new condo or apartment just so they have a charge port for a EV is simply out of the question, it doesn't make financial sense for them, they have better use of their money than paying for a high mortgage. 

For some people right now, EV fits their lifestyle, for most, it doesn't, yet. For those that lives say downtown in new apartments where they have easy access to charging sockets, and they don't drive too many long distance trips, it make sense for them to get a EV, for those that live inn their own house and can install their own charger, and they want to try the vastest gadget, it also make sense to get a EV. It also make sense for say some London people to get. a EV as their city centre has a congestion charge for conventional engined cars. 

EVs are still targeting a limited subset of population right now, but when the 800V fast charging system comes online, the range issue for EV will almost be a moot point, as that will make charging as EV almost as fast as refilling a car, and that will always be the standard people goes for. 

Even the Porsche Taycan will not take the market by storm no matter how good it is. It's not even about Tesla, it's about EV in general.

Very good explanation, thanks!

Wonderbar:

Very good explanation, thanks!

It's just logical, common sense points, without rosy glasses one way or another. And I Haven't even touch on the temperature issue with EVs, they don't work well in the cold or in the heat. Nothing manufacturers can do about it right now, it's just the nature of the current battery tech. They could use heaters to warm up the battery in the cold weather or air conditioning to cool them in the heat, but those also takes energy, i.e. from the battery charge to operate which affects the total range. 

I am not against EV, I don't mind trying it, initially I had a Model 3 order which I cancelled, I also thought about buying the BMW i3, but with the range extender option so technically it's a hybrid. And I also have a Taycan on order.

But for my lifestyle and needs, An EV would just be a 'toy', a novelty thing. Hybrids works better for me, especially when they are performance hybrids, not fuel saving hybrids.

One of my friends who I mentioned  had walked into the Tesla store and walks out with a Model 3 same day before, he took the car on a road trip to California and back. The range is and isn't an issue for him, When he planned the trip, he had to find out where all the charging locations are, and planned his stops beforehand, a bit of a hassle as compared to a gasoline car where gas stations are everywhere and takes all of 5 mins to fill up the tank. He spend maybe a couple days planning the route. But in the end it turns out his wife has a tiny bladder and they had to stop every couple hours anyways for her to pee. The range issue turns out to be not an issue after all as he has all the time in the world to charge.

Mithras:

I was talking with Salim Ismail (Board of X-Prize, founder of Singularity University) Elon is on that board as well. We were talking about exponential growth cycles and how they are dismissed until too late and briefly chatted about Tesla and the thing that he mentioned about the car is that increasingly with that growth and the current exponential growth of driverless cars that Tesla should be looked at as as an App that happens to drive as opposed to a car in the historical sense. 

Very interesting conversation and he is fully of the mind that driverless cars are mainstream in 5 years and the vast majority of cars on the road in under 15. 

This Salim Ismail is probably a very clever person. However, in this case he seems a bit lost. I cannot see any sign of Tesla being an "App". In contracts, it share all qualities with a car 

EV has lithium batteries is not necessarily the future. 

The plan as of today is to make some transition from now to the next twenty years...

mass EV cars is a sweet dream for now...lithium batteries propelled even more! Fuel cells are big alternatives but the tech is not there yet. 

Interesting time ahead. 

--

GT Lover, Porsche fan

991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

Cayenne GTS 2014

SciFrog:

Joist, the problem is that today the Taycan is vaporware since specs and price are not released. Despite all the unknowns, this thread turns into a Tesla death certainty because of a product that if comes out as rumored will kill the entire non 911 Porsche lineup. I am afraid until the Taycan is an actual product you can buy at your dealer, both sides of the argument will hold...

We need an EV section, right now EV content pops up everywhere, in a RT tradition...

The Porsche Taycan is not vaporware.  It exists and is in final development with a production facility, with capacity volumes, set.  Just because Porsche has not shared the final details with you doesn't mean it doesn't exist.  Porsche has shared the relevant information with its manufacturing partners and dealer network.  To launch a new vehicle for global distribution is a very costly and time consuming endeavor as Porsche must have the car certified for each and every market.  There's also a large level of coordination amongst Porsche's various regional marketing arms as production volume and pricing needs to be determined separately for each region.  This again is a very arduous task.  

Tesla avoids many of these headaches by controlling its distribution channels.  This is why Tesla launched the Model 3 exclusively for the U.S. markets and is only now just expanding sales into other regions.  Porsche and others still have the issue of managing a separate dealer network while Tesla runs its own retail network.  This is an artifact left over when the volume auto industry was started.  Both retail models have its cons and pros.  One must also remember that Porsche about twenty-five years ago attempted to eliminate its dealer network in the States without success.  Dealers are politically connected at the state level and have helped sponsor legislation to protect their distribution territory.  Tesla too has run afoul of these issues and has had problems establishing retail stores within some states.  Additionally, setting up a retail network is capital intensive and the capital expended could have been directed toward product introduction as it needs scale to retain a sustainable market position.  

One is still not sure how, especially when you dismiss non-Tesla vehicles as vaporware, that the specifications are outdated.  There is significantly more to a vehicle's specifications than acceleration from 0 to 100 kmh times and range. This also represents a divergence of thought as many believe that the major automakers are viewing EVs as another type of propulsion system while many on the Tesla side view Tesla as a disruptor of the industry by focusing on autonomous driving and app-based ecosystem.  Once again, one believes that this more Silicon Valley hyperbole and the facts don't merit a discussion.  

Dropped my wife Boxster off today for service. Saw my SA and told him to put my down for a Taycan. He told me Porsche wants a $2500 deposit with completion of paperwork so they can judge the amount of interest for production. In all my years with Porsche I never put a deposit down on any car. I told my SA I don't have any interest in leaving a deposit.

Being adventurous can be risky but routine is lethal.

It's the exact reason that with so many people urban and living in apartments & condos that EV works. You just won't own the car. Right now your car is at best used 20% of your day. But you need to store it (in expensive real estate)  park it at work (my office parking lot is $28/day), payments, insurance. Think of those costs and then multiply by the millions in your city. Self driving  shared cars will be the norm much faster than you can imagine. 

Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

https://news.yahoo.com/volkswagen-says-next-generation-combustion-engine-cars-last-201413027.html

Taycan is not vaporware, its price is...

Mithras:

It's the exact reason that with so many people urban and living in apartments & condos that EV works. You just won't own the car. Right now your car is at best used 20% of your day. But you need to store it (in expensive real estate)  park it at work (my office parking lot is $28/day), payments, insurance. Think of those costs and then multiply by the millions in your city. Self driving  shared cars will be the norm much faster than you can imagine. 

Car2Go would have been perfect platform for Tesla Model 3...................

But they are way too expensive as compared with the Smart for 2.

Self driving not so much. They are just accidents waiting to happen.

Stuttgart is already forecasting bigger production volume due to higher demand than expected for the coming Taycan... increased before even presented. there is more than 3,000 deposits with dealer just for NORWAY...which only deliver 300 cars last year...

People are waiting for it, it is a Porsche.

GT Lover, Porsche fan

991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

Cayenne GTS 2014

Norway live it's own life in terms of EV's. Tesla sold 2300 cars in Q3 alone, so I hope that the Porsche dealers are ready for a massive increase in terms of their setups.

tso:

Norway live it's own life in terms of EV's. Tesla sold 2300 cars in Q3 alone, so I hope that the Porsche dealers are ready for a massive increase in terms of their setups.

Is anyone really surprised that there is huge interest in the Taycan? It is the perfect car for the virtue signalling generation as it combines a recognised luxury brand with green credentials. It will become the totemic symbol for the metropolitan middle classes in much the same way that the first Toyota Prius was appropriated by the Holywood A listers trying to show how much they cared for the environment when they popped down to the gym on an organised paparazzi chase yet stil they did nearly all of their travel in huge limo's or private jets that were, somewhat inconveniently for PR purposes, far more polluting.

Most of these people have zero interest in driving dynamics so couldn't care less about the handling etc. They will simply want to be "seen" to be going green. If they were genuine about caring for the environment they would already be driving Nissan Leaf's, Kia Niro's etc but aren't as those brands don't send out the affluent lifestyle message that an EV Porsche will. They could be driving a Tesla just now but again that brand does not have the cachet they look for. The Taycan is a car they will give up their luxury SUV's for or one that they will see as a step up from their current Audi/BMW/Mercedes sedans. It will say "look at how successful I am yet how concerned I am for the planet". It really will take the brand ever further away from it's roots just as the SUV's have.

How Porsche could underestimate demand beats me as the Macan set the precedent for how much value is placed on the right badge by buyers. It has not sold in the huge numbers it has because of it's dynamic abilities. It has sold as the brand is aspirational in the minds of the target audience (which is not people like RT members).

SciFrog:

Joist, the problem is that today the Taycan is vaporware since specs and price are not released. Despite all the unknowns, this thread turns into a Tesla death certainty because of a product that if comes out as rumored will kill the entire non 911 Porsche lineup. I am afraid until the Taycan is an actual product you can buy at your dealer, both sides of the argument will hold...

We need an EV section, right now EV content pops up everywhere, in a RT tradition...

No, we do not need EV section. My not so humble opinion.

Only three members(you are one of them) are HUGE EV fans and are constantly writing about how great the Tesla products are(for them). 

This is mainly Porsche and sports car forum. EVs are not sports cars. I am coming from Croatia. Rimac is one of the producers that actually produced EV sports car in small numbers. But, I am not raving about Rimac here on rennteam

I visited Rimac factory and had a chance to spoke directly with Mate Rimac. He knows little bit more about EVs then all rennteam members. He respects Tesla a lot but, he is not so impressed with their products as some members here. Hint-small amount of his company is owned by Porsche... 

and he is involved in the Valkyrie.....

the-missile:

Stuttgart is already forecasting bigger production volume due to higher demand than expected for the coming Taycan... increased before even presented. there is more than 3,000 deposits with dealer just for NORWAY...which only deliver 300 cars last year...

People are waiting for it, it is a Porsche.

Yep...demand seems to exist...let's see how the final product is, this is very important. If people are disappointed... 

RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

KresoF1:

 

I visited Rimac factory and had a chance to spoke directly with Mate Rimac. He knows little bit more about EVs then all rennteam members. He respects Tesla a lot but, he is not so impressed with their products as some members here. Hint-small amount of his company is owned by Porsche... 

I just got interesting  four weeks training on EV cars and especially future mobility. (I feel proud about it )

As you said, Tesla, with their current voltage at 375V is not referenced as benchmark and far from it...

the Tech they are using for the batteries is the same result. Other lovers (here) seeing this brand as a revolution to the car market is not accurate information as well...

2007 first car released was not even an achievement per se...first studies and prototype for entry level brand french manufacturer were already testing cars in 2001 with higher tech

What will be available in the coming years will be another story though and will necessarily push Tesla to upgrade.

GT Lover, Porsche fan

991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

Cayenne GTS 2014

Many here have been pitching unreleased products vs older tech Tesla already on the road. At the minimum you need to wait for what Tesla will release in the next couple of years. It would be foolish to think Tesla will stay stale since they don’t follow the dinosaurs upgrade cycles designed to extract maximum profits.

Whoopsy:

Mithras:

It's the exact reason that with so many people urban and living in apartments & condos that EV works. You just won't own the car. Right now your car is at best used 20% of your day. But you need to store it (in expensive real estate)  park it at work (my office parking lot is $28/day), payments, insurance. Think of those costs and then multiply by the millions in your city. Self driving  shared cars will be the norm much faster than you can imagine. 

 

Car2Go would have been perfect platform for Tesla Model 3...................

But they are way too expensive as compared with the Smart for 2.

Self driving not so much. They are just accidents waiting to happen.

I"m sure there is some law akin to Moore's Law or Henderson's Law (experience curve effect) at play. When google started doing it's self driving testing in 2009 the lidar system on top if it cost over $40,000. And it was a huge growth on top of the car. The triple A battery sized modules people are using now wholesale for $14. Granted they need 8 or so but... How many millennials and younger don't have and are not planning on getting their driving license? It's a staggering percentage. Tehn go on to think what will happen to traffic congestion when a great percentage of vehicles can travel inches away from each other (and it is easy I'm sure for the computers to be able to tell the driving difference between a human pilot and a computer, they will just leave extra room around the human). 

These exponential events happen. They happen all the time. This is one of those events. Look at the cost of solar cells and the amount being built if you want another one. Did you know Chile produces so much solar power it GIVES it to it's neighbors for free?!?

Think about that for a second. If you have hugely abundant and cheap solar power, EV cars that can run on that power and the ability to share vehicles autonomously so they are actually more efficiently used (driving back themselves to a place to recharge) you have a fundamental change in how we live. I'm putting it out there now that this is going to happen. And not in 50 years. In under 20 years. 

Doesn't mean you won't be able to buy a new Lamborghini or that you won't be able to buy gas for your Singer. It's just that you'll probably get picked up from the house to go to work in a vehicle that doesn't have a driver and half of the population if not more will never get behind a steering wheel again. 

More road for us!

Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region

We can only imagine the productivity gains when autonomous car will arrive. But this will also keep fueling the increase in inequality in our societies.

I have been mulling this theory for quite a while to try to explain which measured productivity has been so muted in the recovery. Besides the rise in cost of health care, I think the main driver is the inappropriate use of smart phones in the work environment. But it is not that simple. Because on the other hand the use of smartphones has allowed a lot of professionals to work (answer emails) at any time of the day and night when it was convenient for them while increasing the amount of quality time outside of work. The core issue is that lower qualified jobs do not need smartphones and thus smartphones only lowers their productivity. So basically you end up with lower classes working less because they snoop on their phones while higher classes do the same but also do some work at times they were not before (I know I do). This creates even more inequality in our society and the sad part is that except for banning smartphones for lower qualified jobs, there is no solution.

As I am not a published economist, feel free to play with this idea 

ISUK:

Is anyone really surprised that there is huge interest in the Taycan? It is the perfect car for the virtue signalling generation as it combines a recognised luxury brand with green credentials. It will become the totemic symbol for the metropolitan middle classes in much the same way that the first Toyota Prius was appropriated by the Holywood A listers trying to show how much they cared for the environment when they popped down to the gym on an organised paparazzi chase yet stil they did nearly all of their travel in huge limo's or private jets that were, somewhat inconveniently for PR purposes, far more polluting.

Most of these people have zero interest in driving dynamics so couldn't care less about the handling etc. They will simply want to be "seen" to be going green. If they were genuine about caring for the environment they would already be driving Nissan Leaf's, Kia Niro's etc but aren't as those brands don't send out the affluent lifestyle message that an EV Porsche will. They could be driving a Tesla just now but again that brand does not have the cachet they look for. The Taycan is a car they will give up their luxury SUV's for or one that they will see as a step up from their current Audi/BMW/Mercedes sedans. It will say "look at how successful I am yet how concerned I am for the planet". It really will take the brand ever further away from it's roots just as the SUV's have.

How Porsche could underestimate demand beats me as the Macan set the precedent for how much value is placed on the right badge by buyers. It has not sold in the huge numbers it has because of it's dynamic abilities. It has sold as the brand is aspirational in the minds of the target audience (which is not people like RT members).

Iain, isn't that what most of us do? It's true that  we care about handling characteristics but that can be had with a Miata, Lotus or Fiat.  The brand sends the message.

BTW, not sure millennials are willing to pay over $75,000 for a green car.

Being adventurous can be risky but routine is lethal.