Leawood911:
reginos:

The new world order regarding the complete electrification of private transport in the next 15-20 years is not set in stone IMO.

There are many variables that could delay the domination of the EV.

The world consensus is not so strong on matters of the climate which was the origin of the EV concept. Governments could be swayed by workers' unions, industry lobbies etc. and the realty of the economic repercussions on their national industries. Many politicians are paying lip service to matters of ecology but in the end their horizon is the economic growth and employment  until the next elections.

The advent of EVs will be a great equalizer for the automobile industry. Things like brand names and heritage will be reversed,  production will be redistributed among producers and jobs will be lost in traditional car producing countries. For example take the German car industry which have built their brands over the last 70 to 100 years and they employ a significant part of the working force. They will have to compete against the Teslas of this world and some Chinese or Indian newcomers and they will lose revenues both corporate and national. Governments and workers might realize that the push by the Green parties towards electric personal transport is really a shot in their own foot. I wouldn't be surprised if soon workers start to demonstrate in favour of keeping ICEs for longer when the realize the damage done.

Also there are numerous fundamental issues that are not so obvious now that EVs account for 1% of all vehicles. On a large scale of electrification parameters like mining for batteries, battery disposal/recycling, multiplication of the electricity production capacity (and the consequent pollution bearing in mind that certain countries are scared of nuclear energy) in order to cater for the billions of EVs, will definitely complicate and delay matters.

The goal of certain countries to ban petrol and diesel cars in this decade or even the COP26 goal of 2040 will prove unattainable.


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"Porsche....and Nothing else matters"

 

You missed something. People like me who don’t believe in climate change or any of that political crap putting pressure to make this happen.  For me and many others it is none of that. It is simply that these car are cheaper, faster, safer and fun to drive.  This, imho, is the only reason Tesla or any brand will ever succeed.  If the cars were crap then all the regulation would do nothing other than get other people elected to change them. 
Resistance is futile but not for exactly the reasons you assume. If ICE wants to survive it will need to be better not just sound better. 

I haven't had much experience of EVs. I've just driven a couple, a BMW i3 and a Taycan 4S. Besides the arresting initial acceleration I didn't notice any other amazing driving attraction that I cannot find in a good normal car. I haven't tried a Tesla yet but from what I hear the Porsche EVs are some of the most rewarding to drive.

Besides the environmentalists and the novelty seekers, EVs presently attract people because for now the cost of charging is much lower than the cost of refueling a ICE car. However, I expect that in future and as private EVs multiply in use this will change. Electricity for charging won't stay at present domestic rates but there will be special taxes and charges like on petrol and diesel fuels. This will vary from country to country but I believe in the EU at least this will be the case in order to alleviate the strain on extra electricity production (capital cost of additional electric capacity and the consequent pollution near power stations)  and to reduce congestion on the roads.

Another factor which will increase ownership cost is the battery disposal/recycling which EV owners will eventually have to meet by the imposition of annual and/or charges, when this ensuing burden will be quantified in the coming years.

Maintenance costs? There might not be headache of engine or gearbox failures and repairs but electric motors and ancillaries are bound to fail and most of all the cost of battery replacement is expected to be considerable.

EVs are relatively new and as a result the real costs haven't appeared yet. Moreover, EV owners are pampered by governments to entice more people to electrification. In the longer term the realities will become apparent.

 

"Porsche....and Nothing else matters"