Elon has a great idea, he created Tesla.

Tesla has a great idea, made the model S that puts it on the map, then come Model X, a couple boutique models that can sell for their capacity.

Elon then has another great idea, electric car for the masses, in volumes that the company can't even imagine. 

It's alright, Wall Street bought the idea and gave them billions after billions to execute.

Tesla wasn't sure how to proceed, hence the hand made cars instead of machine built mass production.

Elon speaks to prop up the stock price, gave the press a couple automobiles that had promises that cannot be accomplished to deflect his company's failures. The press are stupid and just listen and write without thinking. (this part reminds me of Enron)

Tesla has unreal valuation, almost like Wall Street has priced in whatever the eventual company can and will ever be worth in the future if it can do everything Elon promised, in the present.

Elon had a great track record, masses don't have any excuses to doubt him no matter what.

For the last couple years, Tesla has the quasi monopoly on electric cars, but the will change, VERY SOON.

It has no experiences in making mass market cars, while EVERY SINGLE COMPETITORS has been doing such a thing for the longest time. Can it deliver it's promises on the Model 3, which it had already failed miserably?

IMO, going head on against the mainstream car maker is a mistake, Tesla simply doesn't have the amount of ammunition needed. It's gonna be like North Korea launching a single nuke to Hawaii or something, and in return, USA and the whole world launch a couple hundred thousand nukes at North Korea. There is no win.

The Model S was the only nice electric car around for the time being but soon many more will be coming onto the market and every single one of them will be better.

The Model X is the only electric minivan, will still be for the longest time. Closest competitor will be the hybrid Chrysler Pacifica, but that one is not full electric and doesn't have the performance of the Model X, it's place in the market is VERY save.

For Model 3, that will be a hyper competitive segment, and other car makers can do scotch earth and price Tesla's Model 3 to extinction. Bad mistake on Elon.

Tesla Roadster will be a nice niche product, 1/4 million dollars toy, There will be enough people in the whole world to buy perhaps a couple thousands of them to play with, maybe max 4000 over it's lifetime. That's about it. 

The tractor trailer however IS THE GAME CHANGER Tesla has always been talking about. There are ZERO competitions, and no one are even close to thinking about doing something like that. It should succeed, Cost and environmental impact are on it's side.

And they should forget about consumer market, and focus on commercial one. In any given place on Earth, the most polluted automobiles are commercial ones, taxis, trucks. Imagine the whole world are rid of gasoline burning taxis, trucks. The air all around us will be so much cleaner. Probably a million times better than doing consumer cars in electric only. Hell, cars have a tiny engine compared to trucks, and they do a lot less miles per year than any commercial cars also, that's where the solution comes from.

The fairytale story continues though.

Will Tesla ended up as a Enron, or will it be a GM or something?

 

 


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