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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    CGX car nut:
    Enmanuel:
    Leawood911:

    I see Tesla’s all over the place. A 3 parks right next to me at work. Everyone wants one especially people who are not ‘car people’ .  The wait which has been public knowledge for the lower models has simply kept more from making deposits.  They will sell as many as they can build. No doubt. And a good problem to have. I leave it up to Elon’s AI teams to figure out how to solve production and delivery problems. Whatever.  It’s the sales baby!  They are way ahead. 

    Same here, they are everywhere in Vegas. I gotta admit, in some colors it looks rather good. 

    I’ve seen a number of Model 3s on the road lately too.   I was sent a Daily Mail article earlier today suggesting that there are inventory issues with cars sitting in fields across the Country.   Since media is apt to get facts wrong, especially relating to business, it is difficult to comment much on finished inventory sitting in fields.   Tesla originally was to use a build-to-order model, hence the deposits taken for the Model 3, but has since moved away from that business model to optimize production volume to meet profitability criteria on that side of the equation.  One inherent problem is pulling demand forward and away from future demand.  This is exactly why the other automakers are holding EV production levels low, there aren’t any reliable demand models available.   

     

    You can just walked into ay Tesla 'dealer', ask about buying a non-base Model 3 and you will have plenty to choose from their lot. Tesla is cranking out full spec Model 3 which aren't selling like hot cakes.

    They can still claim they have a huge backlog of orders for the Model 3 but those are all base models which Tesla cannot build without taking a huge loss. Not that they are taking any profit from selling the high spec one, just less loss per car.

    Right now Tesla is in survival mode, trying to prop up the stock price for the next 6 months in order to survive the bond payments crunch. 

    Are you familiar with the Chrysler sales bank and the problems it caused the company starting in the 1960s?  Chrysler executives, instead of behaving rational tried to rationalize steady state production regardless of demand, leading to fields of cars accounted for as sold but not part of the official sales channels.  The concept was that cyclical demand would eventually empty the sales bank as demand outstripped production.  In reality, the sales forecasts, which was used to construct the production forecasts, were wildly optimistic.  Lee Iacocca banished the sales bank when he became CEO only to have it return during the waning days of the DaimlerChrysler debacle.  

    Elon, if he really wants to emulate Henry Ford, needs to focus on what Ford did to improve productivity and profitability.  Ford inherently understood the value of negative working capital and how to achieve it through reductions in work-in-process inventory as well as controlling finished goods inventory.   The Big 3 typically utilizes a heuristic for controlling finished goods inventory using the 90 day supply number as a measure of meeting demand with those vehicles in the logistics and sales channels.  It's rough but relatively effective.  

    The Big 3, as well as other automakers, have a distinct advantage over Tesla in clearing inventory gluts by pressuring their dealer networks to sell slow moving inventory in exchange for getting a greater supply of more popular models.  Tesla, having one volume model, is stuck as consumer demand for sedans is decreasing when compared with sales of crossover style vehicles.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I didn't know about the sales bank of Chrysler before.

    The big 3, as well as other car makers, have a distinct advantage over Tesla in that they don't have a Elon Musk at the helm. Who thinks his ego is bigger and over anything and anyone.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/elon-musk-mocks-sec-as-shortseller-enrichment-commission-days-after-settlement.html?__source=yah...

    Seriously, is he 5 years old?

    Shorties are there and pounce on a stock when there is something smelling fishy. But in Tesla's case, it's not smelly fishy, it IS fishy. There is nothing, absolutely nothing to supported such a lofted stock price. Judging by sale volume and growth potential, Tesla should be worth no more than 10 billion if that, not the 40+ right now.

    Elon's words might speak differently, but from a very reliable source I have heard this past weekend, EVERY Tesla sold is sold with a loss, Model 3, Model X, Model S. Unlike other car makers, Tesla doesn't have profitable products to subsidize the electric car venture.

    Now all the other car makers are run by grown ups, so they won't do this, but if say Mercedes or GM is run by a Elon-like guy, they could say make a exact competition of a Model S or Model 3 but price them at 50% of what a Tesla cost, won't take long to kill Tesla completely, especially when Tesla is basically broke right now.


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/judge-tells-tesla-sec-justify-175859403.html

    Elon's Tesla is always in the spotlight on the wrong side.


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    I didn't know about the sales bank of Chrysler before.

    The big 3, as well as other car makers, have a distinct advantage over Tesla in that they don't have a Elon Musk at the helm. Who thinks his ego is bigger and over anything and anyone.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/elon-musk-mocks-sec-as-shortseller-enrichment-commission-days-after-settlement.html?__source=yah...

    Seriously, is he 5 years old?

    Shorties are there and pounce on a stock when there is something smelling fishy. But in Tesla's case, it's not smelly fishy, it IS fishy. There is nothing, absolutely nothing to supported such a lofted stock price. Judging by sale volume and growth potential, Tesla should be worth no more than 10 billion if that, not the 40+ right now.

    Elon's words might speak differently, but from a very reliable source I have heard this past weekend, EVERY Tesla sold is sold with a loss, Model 3, Model X, Model S. Unlike other car makers, Tesla doesn't have profitable products to subsidize the electric car venture.

    Now all the other car makers are run by grown ups, so they won't do this, but if say Mercedes or GM is run by a Elon-like guy, they could say make a exact competition of a Model S or Model 3 but price them at 50% of what a Tesla cost, won't take long to kill Tesla completely, especially when Tesla is basically broke right now.

    Seems more like he has a death wish.   Shorts help provide liquidity which helps to promote market efficiency.   It takes more than a few text messages or a box of shorts to prove the company is fairly valued.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    RC, the specs of the E-tron are 5 years behind...

    Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    It is quite clear now today while Elon is a genius in thinking something up, he is a total retard regarding the stock market and how it works.

    He is taking aim at short sellers and the longs that borrow shares out, and is completely wrong in his arguments.

    He is already getting a crash course on how money works, how loans and bonds works. The stock market is not a free for all cash grab, there are consequences too every action he takes. This is not private venture capital anymore like he used to had to deal with. 

    He needs to seriously hire a lot of experienced people to help him out right now.


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    It is quite clear now today while Elon is a genius in thinking something up, he is a total retard regarding the stock market and how it works.

    He is taking aim at short sellers and the longs that borrow shares out, and is completely wrong in his arguments.

    He is already getting a crash course on how money works, how loans and bonds works. The stock market is not a free for all cash grab, there are consequences too every action he takes. This is not private venture capital anymore like he used to had to deal with. 

    He needs to seriously hire a lot of experienced people to help him out right now.

    Thesis on Musk: His latest flail against the SEC before a judge approves the agreement seems foolhardy but in an egoistical way is his exit from the company.   When he is fired, and Tesla’s true financial state is revealed, he will grovel that Tesla couldn’t raise the necessary funds because he wasn’t involved in the process.   That shields his involvement. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I have been on troubled company boards before, but there is no compensation that would tempt me to be an independent director on the Tesla board.  It would be interesting though to hear their board discussions.


    --

    2017 Range Rover Sport S/C,  2009 Porsche 911S


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    4trac:

    I have been on troubled company boards before, but there is no compensation that would tempt me to be an independent director on the Tesla board.  It would be interesting though to hear their board discussions.

    Concur.   D&O only goes so far.   The board has only two true independent board members: James Murdoch and Linda Johnson Rice.  Neither has any background in tech, product development, or manufacturing.  Both come from media and publishing.   That’s how bad it is at Tesla. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Good thing those Teslas are safe.  https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-slams-full-speed-into-nissan/


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla hyperbole once again.  NHTSA corrected Tesla before for making equivalent claims about the Model S.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla/u-s-agency-says-tesla-safety-claim-goes-beyond-its-analysis-idUSKCN1MJ2HR


    Re: Tesla Roadster

     Two short anecdotes about possible real life issues with the future of EVs in Germany:

    When I picked up my Range Rover at the Land Rover dealer, I noticed a new Range Rover hybrid version. After I mentioned this to the sales guy, he told me that they are getting two EV chargers installed for local use, my dealer also sells Jaguar.

    The sales guy told me that they wanted to have four EV chargers but the local electricity provider said this isn't possible, there is not enough additional capacity available (dealer is outside the city in a small village). No kidding!

    The sales guy also told me that his son is moving into a condo in a newly constructed apartment building with over 50 condos in a smaller town in Germany. The construction company wanted to install six EV chargers in the underground garage, so they are prepared for future EVs. Now the fun part: The local electricity company says that the electricity grid for the house isn't prepared for that, so they need to install a separate grid to the next grid point, cost is around 100000 EUR. They decided to scratch the six chargers from the garage.


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    RC:

     Two short anecdotes about possible real life issues with the future of EVs in Germany:

    When I picked up my Range Rover at the Land Rover dealer, I noticed a new Range Rover hybrid version. After I mentioned this to the sales guy, he told me that they are getting two EV chargers installed for local use, my dealer also sells Jaguar.

    The sales guy told me that they wanted to have four EV chargers but the local electricity provider said this isn't possible, there is not enough additional capacity available (dealer is outside the city in a small village). No kidding!

    The sales guy also told me that his son is moving into a condo in a newly constructed apartment building with over 50 condos in a smaller town in Germany. The construction company wanted to install six EV chargers in the underground garage, so they are prepared for future EVs. Now the fun part: The local electricity company says that the electricity grid for the house isn't prepared for that, so they need to install a separate grid to the next grid point, cost is around 100000 EUR. They decided to scratch the six chargers from the garage.

    Another potential issue is your government's decision to move away from nuclear generation facilities after the Fukushima incident to rely more and more on solar and wind generation facilities.  Strangely, a large established base of EVs can assist with the primary issue of grid stability irritated by variable generation systems.  A buffer system is needed and EVs theoretically can help provide that buffer.  Additionally, as Germany moves away from nuclear it is relying more on coal-fired generation facilities fueled with brown coal from eastern Germany near Poland.  This is one of the worst, based on sulfur contaminates, fuels possible for power generation.  The environmental impact is quite devastating too.  But that's what happens with much of a government's policy and regulations.  It is a universal problem and not focused on any specific country as all have some regulations that are counterproductive.  Denmark, a number of years made the decision to rely on wind as it sold its share of oil from the North Sea on the open market.  To maintain grid stability every kilowatt of wind generating capability was backed up with a kilowatt of co-generation capability.  As the natural gas fired co-generation facilities cycled on-and-off due to the fickleness of the wind, Denmark's carbon footprint actually increased.  Most politicians make third-rate economists and even more important, fourth-rate scientists.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    RC:

     Twp short anecdotes about possible real life issues with the future of EVs in Germany:

    When I picked up my Range Rover at the Land Rover dealer, I noticed a new Range Rover hybrid version. After I mentioned this to the sales guy, he told me that they are getting two EV chargers installed for local use, my dealer also sells Jaguar.

    The sales guy told me that they wanted to have four EV chargers but the local electricity provider said this isn't possible, there is not enough additional capacity available (dealer is outside the city in a small village). No kidding!

    The sales guy also told me that his son is moving into a condo in a newly constructed apartment building with over 50 condos in a smaller town in Germany. The construction company wanted to install six EV chargers in the underground garage, so they are prepared for future EVs. Now the fun part: The local electricity company says that the electricity grid for the house isn't prepared for that, so they need to install a separate grid to the next grid point, cost is around 100000 EUR. They decided to scratch the six chargers from the garage.

    I"ve worked on deals where we had to spend upwards of $9m on a new sub-station for data centers and now cannabis producers are looking at having to do the same thing when producing in industrial buildings. Bit-coin/Data mining is similar.  


    --

    Past-President, Porsche Club of America - Upper Canada Region


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    ...  Additionally, as Germany moves away from nuclear it is relying more on coal-fired generation facilities fueled with brown coal from eastern Germany near Poland.  ...

    That’s not true.

    While the total number of energy by brown coal is quite stable the total number of energy produced by wind is strongly increasing. Energy by hard coal and by nuclear power is decreasing (absolute and relative). The absolute numbers of energy are increasing, so the relative part of coal is decreasing. But yes it is still important

    (Costs is another story)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Itsme:
    CGX car nut:
    ...  Additionally, as Germany moves away from nuclear it is relying more on coal-fired generation facilities fueled with brown coal from eastern Germany near Poland.  ...

    That’s not true.

    While the total number of energy by brown coal is quite stable the total number of energy produced by wind is strongly increasing. Energy by hard coal and by nuclear power is decreasing (absolute and relative). The absolute numbers of energy are increasing, so the relative part of coal is decreasing. But yes it is still important

    (Costs is another story)

    Installed capacity of wind and solar isn’t always an accurate measure because these generation types are supply driven not demand driven.  Storage then becomes an important issue and as you have stated brown coal facilities remain important in meeting grid stability and consumer demand.

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    Itsme:
    CGX car nut:
    ...  Additionally, as Germany moves away from nuclear it is relying more on coal-fired generation facilities fueled with brown coal from eastern Germany near Poland.  ...

    That’s not true.

    While the total number of energy by brown coal is quite stable the total number of energy produced by wind is strongly increasing. Energy by hard coal and by nuclear power is decreasing (absolute and relative). The absolute numbers of energy are increasing, so the relative part of coal is decreasing. But yes it is still important

    (Costs is another story)

    Installed capacity of wind and solar isn’t always an accurate measure because these generation types are supply driven not demand driven.  Storage then becomes an important issue and as you have stated brown coal facilities remain important in meeting grid stability and consumer demand.

     

     

    If I am correct, they can't meet consumer demand, France is selling electricity to Germany Smiley


    --

    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    You may want to have a look at Electricity Map to see near time electricity "production" by source (site does not work properly in Safari, at least for me)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    the-missile:
    CGX car nut:
    Itsme:
    CGX car nut:
    ....

    Installed capacity of wind and solar isn’t always an accurate measure because these generation types are supply driven not demand driven.  Storage then becomes an important issue and as you have stated brown coal facilities remain important in meeting grid stability and consumer demand.

    If I am correct, they can't meet consumer demand, France is selling electricity to Germany Smiley

    I was talking about the number of energy produced and not about the theoretical number which can be produced. Yes, coal is still important, but the proportion of consumption is sinking every year.

    As far as I know Germany produces more energy than it consumes. Germany exports more energy than it imports. France, Sweden and Danmark export more to Germany than they import. Reasons for importing energy are various: missing infrastructure to transport “green” energy from the north to the south, imported energy is sometimes cheaper (water energy in spring because of the melting snow, sounds funny but true) and many more.

    All sides (coal/nuclear/green) have a lot of arguments why their view is correct


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Itsme:
    the-missile:
    CGX car nut:
    Itsme:
    CGX car nut:
    ....

    Installed capacity of wind and solar isn’t always an accurate measure because these generation types are supply driven not demand driven.  Storage then becomes an important issue and as you have stated brown coal facilities remain important in meeting grid stability and consumer demand.

    If I am correct, they can't meet consumer demand, France is selling electricity to Germany Smiley

    I was talking about the number of energy produced and not about the theoretical number which can be produced. Yes, coal is still important, but the proportion of consumption is sinking every year.

    As far as I know Germany produces more energy than it consumes. Germany exports more energy than it imports. France, Sweden and Danmark export more to Germany than they import. Reasons for importing energy are various: missing infrastructure to transport “green” energy from the north to the south, imported energy is sometimes cheaper (water energy in spring because of the melting snow, sounds funny but true) and many more.

    All sides (coal/nuclear/green) have a lot of arguments why their view is correct

    Demand isn’t constant throughout the day and year.  That is the problem.  Germany’s current generating scheme is not aligned with consumer/industrial demand.   Also don’t compare theoritical generation capacity with actual, needed capacity throughout the day.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    My English seems to be really bad. Smiley

    Fact 1: I am not talking about theoretical numbers but in 2017 produced numbers of electricity

    Fact 2: Germany produces more energy than needed and is a big exporter of electricity

    Fact 3: Although Germany is a big exporter of electricity there a countries who export more energy to Germany than they import (France, Sweden, Denmark as far as I know)

    Fact 4: the share of electricity produced by coal is sinking, the absolute number of electricity by brown coal is stable

    I don’t want to start a political discussion about if it is necessary that a member of the EU has to produce his energy by its own or if he could/should buy energy on the market as cheap or green as possible



    Re: Tesla Roadster

    the-missile:
    CGX car nut:
    Itsme:
    CGX car nut:
    ...  Additionally, as Germany moves away from nuclear it is relying more on coal-fired generation facilities fueled with brown coal from eastern Germany near Poland.  ...

    That’s not true.

    While the total number of energy by brown coal is quite stable the total number of energy produced by wind is strongly increasing. Energy by hard coal and by nuclear power is decreasing (absolute and relative). The absolute numbers of energy are increasing, so the relative part of coal is decreasing. But yes it is still important

    (Costs is another story)

    Installed capacity of wind and solar isn’t always an accurate measure because these generation types are supply driven not demand driven.  Storage then becomes an important issue and as you have stated brown coal facilities remain important in meeting grid stability and consumer demand.

     

     

    If I am correct, they can't meet consumer demand, France is selling electricity to Germany Smiley

    France wasn't that dumb saying good-bye to nuclear power (Germany) without further planning... Smiley

    One harsh winter and a couple of thousands of EVs more on Germany's roads and the electricity grid brakes down. Smiley

    I talked to my BMW "guy" yesterday about the future of EVs and he seriously claims that he actually believes more in cars with fuel cells because they are much more practical to use in any possible way once the technology is fully developed. He has a point since Germany has lots of wind power but we are not able to "save" it for later use. Transforming it into gas or methanol makes sense because the chemical storage has various advantages.


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-17/tearing-apart-teslas-to-find-elon-musk-s-best-and-worst-decisions

    They just need to tweak the body manufacturing and that doesn’t seem like the hardest thing to do...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-17/tearing-apart-teslas-to-find-elon-musk-s-best-and-worst-decisions

    They just need to tweak the body manufacturing and that doesn’t seem like the hardest thing to do...

    Munro typically has done satisfactory analysis but their primary business remains selling their reports.  The BIW issues highlighted by Munro can't simply be tweaked away.  Those issue require a complete redesign of the BIW and the assembly process.  That's a non-trivial task as well as an expensive one.  Tesla, with the Model 3, decided to make the car's body an integral part of the battery pack protection system versus the more battery pack system employed in the Model S and Model X.  Additionally, the multiple piece assemblies hint that Tesla's metal stamping capabilities lag behind other automakers that can stamp to precise shape entire side panels.   Audi, for example, has its own tool making division to assist with developing tooling for each new product.  This integration allows for the diffusion of new technologies into the assembly process meaning Audi can incorporate deeper draws, more precise shapes, and tighter radii than most of its competitors.  Regardless of what you may believe, it is the assembly line that will make or break a company financially.   

    Munro's assessment of the gross margins associated with the Model 3 are faulty since they have used the standard accounting approach for a traditional automaker.  Tesla, under Musk, built its own sales, service, and distribution channels.  It also built out its own charging network.  These are direct costs associated with each car Tesla produces and these costs hit the gross margin as part of cost of goods sold.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Another perspective

    “For perspective, the average German car owner could drive a gas-guzzling vehicle for three and a half years, or more than 50,000 kilometres, before a Nissan Leaf with a 30 kWh battery would beat it on carbon-dioxide emissions in a coal-heavy country, Berylls estimates show.”

    https://www.afr.com/news/world/europe/the-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars-theyre-not-as-green-as-you-think-they-are-20181016-h16q7x?et_cid=29147893&et_rid=1925463745&Channel=Email&EmailTypeCode=&LinkName=https%3a%2f%2fwww.afr.com%2fnews%2fworld%2feurope%2fthe-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars-theyre-not-as-green-as-you-think-they-are-20181016-h16q7x&Email_name=MW5-10-17&Day_Sent=17102018


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    DJM48:

    Another perspective

    “For perspective, the average German car owner could drive a gas-guzzling vehicle for three and a half years, or more than 50,000 kilometres, before a Nissan Leaf with a 30 kWh battery would beat it on carbon-dioxide emissions in a coal-heavy country, Berylls estimates show.”

    https://www.afr.com/news/world/europe/the-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars-theyre-not-as-green-as-you-think-they-are-20181016-h16q7x?et_cid=29147893&et_rid=1925463745&Channel=Email&EmailTypeCode=&LinkName=https%3a%2f%2fwww.afr.com%2fnews%2fworld%2feurope%2fthe-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars-theyre-not-as-green-as-you-think-they-are-20181016-h16q7x&Email_name=MW5-10-17&Day_Sent=17102018

    Oil lobby is strong Smiley and they will tell you everything and its opposite to make you believe Oil is green Smiley

    this kind of study is utterly questionable.

     


    --

    GT Lover, Porsche fan

    991.2 GT3 manual, 991 GT3 2014(sold)

    Cayenne GTS 2014


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Will leave it to others more knowledgeable than me to comment on the validity of the presented data.

    Interesting though to look beyond the fuel consumption data and even the question of the origin of the electricity to plug the car into to the bigger picture of where and how the batteries and cars are created.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I have to admit that after taking a bit of a dive into this subject, I am actually leaning more towards to fuel cell operated cars, especially since you can transform for example wind or solar power into gas or methane.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power-to-gas


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The VCD Germany has just recommended the following EVs only (Audi e-tron and Taycan aren't included yet but I doubt they will ever make this list):

    2018-10-19_12-06-40.jpg

    They chose these cars based on ecological and "socially acceptable" factors only.

    These are also the EVs which would be probably bought (and are currently bought) in Germany.

    Tesla is considered a luxury EV, many environmental organizations actually advise against it or for example the new EV SUVs (Audi, etc.).


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Range Rover Evoque Si4 Black Edition (2019)

     


     
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