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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    What's the over/under until Musk is removed from CEO of Tesla since the SEC has filed suit against him for misleading investors this afternoon?

    There's a podcast in the States titled Autoline highlighting the auto industry from the Detroit area.  A few nights ago, that podcast featured former General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz, who remains a sprightly 87 y/o executive, working on several automotive-related projects.  Lutz, who still has a solid grasp on the auto industry beyond the U.S. domestic market, made a few comments about Tesla.  

    First, he was very complimentary of the product but was highly critical of Musk, which echoes the sentiment of many industry knowledgeable individuals.  Second, when he was asked about the prospects of the company, Lutz stated that the problem is a defective business model coupled with the instabilities of Musk.  However, he did point out that the Tesla Board has the unenviable position of dealing with Musk, who unfortunately, is responsible for much of the inflated market capitalization of the company.  Third, Lutz stressed that there are few acquirers for Tesla because there is nothing innovative about the company or product.  He went through the analysis that value exists with the brand name but that limits sales prospects since non-automotive companies, i.e., Apple or Google, have the same issues relating to scalability that the current company faces.  He stressed that the existing automakers don't need to have the brand to make a substantial push into the EV space.  This argument led to a discussion of how the conventional automakers can operate with losses associated with EVs as they can rely on the profitability of the other products.  He said Ford, for example, could increase its pickup truck prices by $200/unit to offset the loss in EVs.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:

    What's the over/under until Musk is removed from CEO of Tesla since the SEC has filed suit against him for misleading investors this afternoon?

    There's a podcast in the States titled Autoline highlighting the auto industry from the Detroit area.  A few nights ago, that podcast featured former General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz, who remains a sprightly 87 y/o executive, working on several automotive-related projects.  Lutz, who still has a solid grasp on the auto industry beyond the U.S. domestic market, made a few comments about Tesla.  

    First, he was very complimentary of the product but was highly critical of Musk, which echoes the sentiment of many industry knowledgeable individuals.  Second, when he was asked about the prospects of the company, Lutz stated that the problem is a defective business model coupled with the instabilities of Musk.  However, he did point out that the Tesla Board has the unenviable position of dealing with Musk, who unfortunately, is responsible for much of the inflated market capitalization of the company.  Third, Lutz stressed that there are few acquirers for Tesla because there is nothing innovative about the company or product.  He went through the analysis that value exists with the brand name but that limits sales prospects since non-automotive companies, i.e., Apple or Google, have the same issues relating to scalability that the current company faces.  He stressed that the existing automakers don't need to have the brand to make a substantial push into the EV space.  This argument led to a discussion of how the conventional automakers can operate with losses associated with EVs as they can rely on the profitability of the other products.  He said Ford, for example, could increase its pickup truck prices by $200/unit to offset the loss in EVs.  


    Everything that comes out of this old farts mouth should just be laughed at:

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/24/ignore-bob-lutz-when-he-talks-about-tesla/


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    lukestern:
    CGX car nut:

    What's the over/under until Musk is removed from CEO of Tesla since the SEC has filed suit against him for misleading investors this afternoon?

    There's a podcast in the States titled Autoline highlighting the auto industry from the Detroit area.  A few nights ago, that podcast featured former General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz, who remains a sprightly 87 y/o executive, working on several automotive-related projects.  Lutz, who still has a solid grasp on the auto industry beyond the U.S. domestic market, made a few comments about Tesla.  

    First, he was very complimentary of the product but was highly critical of Musk, which echoes the sentiment of many industry knowledgeable individuals.  Second, when he was asked about the prospects of the company, Lutz stated that the problem is a defective business model coupled with the instabilities of Musk.  However, he did point out that the Tesla Board has the unenviable position of dealing with Musk, who unfortunately, is responsible for much of the inflated market capitalization of the company.  Third, Lutz stressed that there are few acquirers for Tesla because there is nothing innovative about the company or product.  He went through the analysis that value exists with the brand name but that limits sales prospects since non-automotive companies, i.e., Apple or Google, have the same issues relating to scalability that the current company faces.  He stressed that the existing automakers don't need to have the brand to make a substantial push into the EV space.  This argument led to a discussion of how the conventional automakers can operate with losses associated with EVs as they can rely on the profitability of the other products.  He said Ford, for example, could increase its pickup truck prices by $200/unit to offset the loss in EVs.  


    Everything that comes out of this old farts mouth should just be laughed at:

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/24/ignore-bob-lutz-when-he-talks-about-tesla/

    In all fairness, same could be said about that webpage though, I have read stuff from then and it's just an EV biased propaganda pamphlet.


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Posting relevant news about the company and its founder, no matter how negative you perceive it, is still newsworthy.  

    While you may disagree with Mr. Lutz, his analyses, typically, are quite correct and reflective of decades of experience i the auto industry.  He understands the economics and issues related to the industry better than even most of the executives in that industry and the reason he has serviced as a Vice Chairman of General Motors and head of global product development at DaimlerChyrsler.  His record speaks for itself.   He lead development of the Ford Sierra, the highly profitable Ford Explorer, the Dodge Viper, the Chrysler LH products, and numerous platforms for General Motors. His comments are worthy of posting.  He is very supportive of Tesla as a product.  He is not supportive of Tesla as a business.  That is significant difference and one you have selectively glossed over.  

    I too have stated many, many times in posts here that Tesla has had much potential, only to watch it being squandered by impetuous actions from Musk.  He has saddled the company with debt for his vision of global dominance of the auto industry when equity financing was a much more attractive option; however, that would have reduced his percentage of ownership in the company.  Now, as the company needs to raise capital to prosper, Musk, through his immature actions including the "going private" Tweet has limited the company's capital raising options.  Oligopolies are highly competitive and profitability is dependent on economies of scale, something that Lutz definitely understands.  I'm not sure Musk understands it with his numerous projects.  The only source of economies of scale is reflected in the Nevada Gigafactory; however, even then, the Model S/X use a different cell than the higher volume Model 3.  It isn't clear that the Model S/X battery packs can be reengineered to accept that larger cell use in the Model 3.  

    Returning to Lutz and his dialog on Autoline.  Lutz questioned why very scarce resources are being diverted to the development the semi when semi sales in the States are minuscule and large fleet operators are tied one supplier to better manage logistics.  Again, this is a very relevant point and it doesn't reflect negatively on the product, but the process put into place by Musk.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    With apps like Waze it is not worth it having a deflector/jammer unless it is legal...

    Waze helps you zero in Germany or other parts of Europe. Fixed radar traps aren't really an issue since they can be easily spotted by anyone with good eyes and a decent attention span (my Superman eyes are not required Smiley).

    Video surveillance cars (biggest "danger" in Germany since it is extremely hard to spot them), hidden radar traps (you usually see them when you see the flash Smiley, last time they hid one in a Volvo SUV over here), laser traps, traps with photo cells and/or inductive lines in the asphalt, choppers (in some countries) or video recording traps (only allowed for speed zones of 30 kph or less in Germany) where they permanently(!) record the traffic passing by and "picking" those who were faster than 30 kph or whatever.

    Europe is a very challenging region when it comes to speed traps I'm afraid.

    In Austria, police officers are even permitted to "guess" your speed...oh boy.

     


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    1538237718843image.jpeg

    ...apparently having the CEO charged with securities fraud by the SEC is not so good for market confidence! Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I read Elon Musk premium accounts for $130 out of Tesla stock.  Thus once he is removed this should drop further.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Jean:

    I read Elon Musk premium accounts for $130 out of Tesla stock.  Thus once he is removed this should drop further.

    Tesla has settled with the SEC.   Tesla will pay a $20 million fine and Musk will step down as Chairman but will remain CEO.   Therefore, he is one step away from removal since he no longer directly controlling the board.  Justice action still active. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    Jean:

    I read Elon Musk premium accounts for $130 out of Tesla stock.  Thus once he is removed this should drop further.

    Tesla has settled with the SEC.   Tesla will pay a $20 million fine and Musk will step down as Chairman but will remain CEO.   Therefore, he is one step away from removal since he no longer directly controlling the board.  Justice action still active. 

    Press release from SEC...

    Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges; Tesla Charged With and Resolves Securities Law Charge

    Settlement Requires Musk to Step Down as Tesla’s Chairman; Tesla to Appoint Additional Independent Directors; Tesla and Musk Agree to Pay $40 million in Penalties

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    2018-226

    Washington D.C., Sept. 29, 2018 —

    The Securities and Exchange Commission announced today that Elon Musk, CEO and Chairman of Silicon Valley-based Tesla, Inc., has agreed to settle the securities fraud charge brought by the SEC against him last week.  The SEC also today charged Tesla with failing to have required disclosure controls and procedures relating to Musk’s tweets, a charge that Tesla has agreed to settle.  The settlements, which are subject to court approval, will result in comprehensive corporate governance and other reforms at Tesla—including Musk’s removal as Chairman of the Tesla board—and the payment by Musk and Tesla of financial penalties.

    According to the SEC’s complaint against him, Musk tweeted on August 7, 2018 that he could take Tesla private at $420 per share — a substantial premium to its trading price at the time — that funding for the transaction had been secured, and that the only remaining uncertainty was a shareholder vote.  The SEC’s complaint alleged that, in truth, Musk knew that the potential transaction was uncertain and subject to numerous contingencies.  Musk had not discussed specific deal terms, including price, with any potential financing partners, and his statements about the possible transaction lacked an adequate basis in fact.  According to the SEC’s complaint, Musk’s misleading tweets caused Tesla’s stock price to jump by over six percent on August 7, and led to significant market disruption.

    According to the SEC’s complaint against Tesla, despite notifying the market in 2013 that it intended to use Musk’s Twitter account as a means of announcing material information about Tesla and encouraging investors to review Musk’s tweets, Tesla had no disclosure controls or procedures in place to determine whether Musk’s tweets contained information required to be disclosed in Tesla’s SEC filings.  Nor did it have sufficient processes in place to that Musk’s tweets were accurate or complete.

    Musk and Tesla have agreed to settle the charges against them without admitting or denying the SEC’s allegations.  Among other relief, the settlements require that:

    • Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman.  Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;
    • Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;
    • Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications;
    • Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty.  The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process. 

    “The total package of remedies and relief announced today are specifically designed to address the misconduct at issue by strengthening Tesla’s corporate governance and oversight in order to protect investors,” said Stephanie Avakian, Co-Director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division. 

    “As a result of the settlement, Elon Musk will no longer be Chairman of Tesla, Tesla’s board will adopt important reforms —including an obligation to oversee Musk’s communications with investors—and both will pay financial penalties,” added Steven Peikin, Co-Director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division.  “The resolution is intended to prevent further market disruption and harm to Tesla’s shareholders.”

    The SEC’s investigation was conducted by Walker Newell, Brent Smyth, and Barrett Atwood and supervised by Steven Buchholz, Erin Schneider, and Jina Choi in the San Francisco Regional Office and Cheryl Crumpton in the SEC’s Home Office.

    ###

    Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    This outcome was the best thing that could happen to Tesla. Elon remain as CEO, their communication will now need to be more strict and controlled and a new chairman will be elected.

    Stock will probably go up early next week and then even further when the Q3 figures are published.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    lukestern:

    This outcome was the best thing that could happen to Tesla. Elon remain as CEO, their communication will now need to be more strict and controlled and a new chairman will be elected.

    x2, this is good for Tesla. Hopefully Musk will take a more behind the scenes position, every time he opened his mouth on twitter he was not doing Tesla any good.


    --

    ⇒ Carlos - Porsche 991 Carrera GTS


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla is a case study that will be used to educate far and wide...

    Indeed, many HR and Compliance departments around the world have long been warning about the risks of un-guarded use of social media.

    A single tweet has resulted into $40 million in fines ($20m for Elon Musk + $20m for Tesla) from the SEC, resulting from securities fraud, with the CEO having to resign as Chairman and accept additional oversight and Independent Directors required to join the Board of Directors.

    To state the obvious, this is not the end of the story...

    Elon Musk is also being sued by investors in class-action law suits. The SEC intervention will have increased the prospects of damages being awarded to investors.

    Meanwhile, it is rumoured that Tesla is running short on liquidity, suppliers are not being paid, depositors not being repaid, customers have been asked for full payment then delivery cancelled, build quality is poor with many new cars needing re-working, manufacturing seems to be via batch production with limited options and colours, USA orderbook has dissappeared with cars available to buy to non-depositors from the long stock of inventory.

    The recent events also have the Rating Agencies taking another close look, with a risk of further credit downgrade. If the company is not able to repay or refinance debt at maturity (e.g. $920m convertible bonds due March 2019) then there is a risk of a Chapter 11 restructuring. This would have significant implications for shareholders, management, workers, suppliers, existing customers, servicing, charging stations, etc.

    While the Q3 results are expected to show a significant increase in revenues from Model 3 sales, the Tesla accounts will also be under close scrutiny for any further signs of financial distress. It is likely that the Q3 conference call will be carefully scripted to avoid further legal risk. The auditors will also be under pressure at year-end as they have to opine whether their audit opinion should have a "going concern" qualification.

    Any allegations of serious irregularities (e.g. accounting fraud) could result in further investigation by the SEC or DOJ...

    Fund managers will have to take a decision on whether to continue to support a CEO that had to settle with SEC after committing securities fraud. Professional fund managers have a fiduciary responsibility to their investors, so will be less emotional about the decision than individual shareholders and customers.

    As a fund investor, the decision is whether to reduce holdings now, or hold out for the long-term but risk a further downside move and possible financial restructuring.

    The constitution of the Tesla shareholder register may change significantly in the next few months. There is also the potential that specialist "distressed" investors will look to take a strategic holding in Tesla debt, with a view to a potential financial restructuring and conversion into a new class of equity.

    The additional oversight placed on Elon Musk will reduce his activity on social media (e.g. Tw!tter) and hence his ability to use speculative future product announcements (free marketing?) to support the share price.

    Meanwhile, investors and analysts are trying to work out how competition in the automotive sector will develop as the world's largest car manufacturers start to roll out EVs across the range.

    Let's see how these factors develop during Q4... Smiley 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Maybe Elon should go a bit easier on pot... 😜

    https://youtu.be/w0SFSaFh-g8


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Monday is going to be fun!


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Back to normal as expected. 40 mil fine vs 7billion loss for shareholders. Go figure. Sometimes the SEC forgets who they are protecting. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    On my drive down to Monterey Tuesday, I saw transports with 7 Teslas, the mix varies but a lot of Model 3s every 30-45mins or so heading North.

    On my drive back up, I passed 4 such transports.

    They are cranking out a lot of Model 3s for sure, and meet their production 'target'.

    But all of these are fully loaded premium cars which sits on 'dealer' lots. All those 400k deposits? Most are for the 35k base model with they cannot make without taking a huge loss on each.

     


    --

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/tesla-s-model-3-is-becoming-one-of-america-s-best-selling-sedans

     

    for the nay sayers who do not realize what Tesla is really doing in the USA to the sedan market...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    I see Tesla’s all over the place. A 3 parks right next to me at work. Everyone wants one especially people who are not ‘car people’ .  The wait which has been public knowledge for the lower models has simply kept more from making deposits.  They will sell as many as they can build. No doubt. And a good problem to have. I leave it up to Elon’s AI teams to figure out how to solve production and delivery problems. Whatever.  It’s the sales baby!  They are way ahead. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Leawood911:

    I see Tesla’s all over the place. A 3 parks right next to me at work. Everyone wants one especially people who are not ‘car people’ .  The wait which has been public knowledge for the lower models has simply kept more from making deposits.  They will sell as many as they can build. No doubt. And a good problem to have. I leave it up to Elon’s AI teams to figure out how to solve production and delivery problems. Whatever.  It’s the sales baby!  They are way ahead. 

    Same here, they are everywhere in Vegas. I gotta admit, in some colors it looks rather good. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Enmanuel:
    Leawood911:

    I see Tesla’s all over the place. A 3 parks right next to me at work. Everyone wants one especially people who are not ‘car people’ .  The wait which has been public knowledge for the lower models has simply kept more from making deposits.  They will sell as many as they can build. No doubt. And a good problem to have. I leave it up to Elon’s AI teams to figure out how to solve production and delivery problems. Whatever.  It’s the sales baby!  They are way ahead. 

    Same here, they are everywhere in Vegas. I gotta admit, in some colors it looks rather good. 

    I’ve seen a number of Model 3s on the road lately too.   I was sent a Daily Mail article earlier today suggesting that there are inventory issues with cars sitting in fields across the Country.   Since media is apt to get facts wrong, especially relating to business, it is difficult to comment much on finished inventory sitting in fields.   Tesla originally was to use a build-to-order model, hence the deposits taken for the Model 3, but has since moved away from that business model to optimize production volume to meet profitability criteria on that side of the equation.  One inherent problem is pulling demand forward and away from future demand.  This is exactly why the other automakers are holding EV production levels low, there aren’t any reliable demand models available.   


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/tesla-s-model-3-is-becoming-one-of-america-s-best-selling-sedans

     

    for the nay sayers who do not realize what Tesla is really doing in the USA to the sedan market...

    For now... Smiley


    --

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mini JCW (2015)


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    By then Tesla, if it survives, will have no more cahs flow issue and will be selling somewhere between 600,000 and 1m cars a year. This will allow them to lower the price and be more competitive while improving interiors and tech. The German products will be obsolete by the time they come out and even if they are not, the model cycle they have will make it obsolete fast enough. All the while Tesla will keep making the cars better every few months with retrofitable hardware and software updates even on older cars. Their whole strategy is light years ahead of the decade old processes of traditional manufacturers.

    Look at my example. I would buy a decent range and performance Macan EV today, but there will not be one for at least two years. By then Tesla will have the model Y which is just a variation of the model 3 and will be more advanced than the Macan will be. Sorry RC but there is a good chance that what you have “seen” for the future of German EVs might be too little too late or just vaporware.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    By then Tesla, if it survives, will have no more cahs flow issue and will be selling somewhere between 600,000 and 1m cars a year. This will allow them to lower the price and be more competitive while improving interiors and tech. The German products will be obsolete by the time they come out and even if they are not, the model cycle they have will make it obsolete fast enough. All the while Tesla will keep making the cars better every few months with retrofitable hardware and software updates even on older cars. Their whole strategy is light years ahead of the decade old processes of traditional manufacturers.

    Look at my example. I would buy a decent range and performance Macan EV today, but there will not be one for at least two years. By then Tesla will have the model Y which is just a variation of the model 3 and will be more advanced than the Macan will be. Sorry RC but there is a good chance that what you have “seen” for the future of German EVs might be too little too late or just vaporware.

    The e-tron isn't vaporware and others will follow in 2019...

    The market(s) cannot absorb that many EVs, there will be a "correction" at some point.

    Some experts here say that that many EVs won't sell, there is no market for them. We'll see...


    --

     

    RC (Germany) - Rennteam Editor Porsche 991.2 Carrera GTS Cabriolet (2018), Audi R8 V10 Plus (2016), Mercedes E63 S AMG Edition 1 (2018), Mini JCW (2015)

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    The new reality distortion field.  Disconnected from the economics and based on breathless dreams. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    RC, the specs of the E-tron are 5 years behind...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    .....don't forget that sedans overall are a declining market in the US; the growth is in cross-overs and SUV's.

    For example, Ford is exiting the sedan market here.

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Not forgetting, one can only imagine the potential of the model Y in the USA... Personaly I would never buy a model S or a model 3, only an X or a Y.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    SciFrog:

    RC, the specs of the E-tron are 5 years behind...

    How exactly are the specifications of the e-tron five years behind?  The e-tron specifications slot that model between the Q5 and Audi Q7, which Audi has no problems selling in large volumes.   The only outliers are a slightly higher price than those two models and potentially less range than anticipated; however, few outside the company are aware of what the design targets are for this vehicle.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    Enmanuel:
    Leawood911:

    I see Tesla’s all over the place. A 3 parks right next to me at work. Everyone wants one especially people who are not ‘car people’ .  The wait which has been public knowledge for the lower models has simply kept more from making deposits.  They will sell as many as they can build. No doubt. And a good problem to have. I leave it up to Elon’s AI teams to figure out how to solve production and delivery problems. Whatever.  It’s the sales baby!  They are way ahead. 

    Same here, they are everywhere in Vegas. I gotta admit, in some colors it looks rather good. 

    I’ve seen a number of Model 3s on the road lately too.   I was sent a Daily Mail article earlier today suggesting that there are inventory issues with cars sitting in fields across the Country.   Since media is apt to get facts wrong, especially relating to business, it is difficult to comment much on finished inventory sitting in fields.   Tesla originally was to use a build-to-order model, hence the deposits taken for the Model 3, but has since moved away from that business model to optimize production volume to meet profitability criteria on that side of the equation.  One inherent problem is pulling demand forward and away from future demand.  This is exactly why the other automakers are holding EV production levels low, there aren’t any reliable demand models available.   

     

    You can just walked into ay Tesla 'dealer', ask about buying a non-base Model 3 and you will have plenty to choose from their lot. Tesla is cranking out full spec Model 3 which aren't selling like hot cakes.

    They can still claim they have a huge backlog of orders for the Model 3 but those are all base models which Tesla cannot build without taking a huge loss. Not that they are taking any profit from selling the high spec one, just less loss per car.

    Right now Tesla is in survival mode, trying to prop up the stock price for the next 6 months in order to survive the bond payments crunch. 


    --

     

     



     
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