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    Re: Kinda OT, but, "Peak Oil" what is it? us$11 ga

    I'm just an armchair energy analyst. I don't have access to very reliable production figures. However, I suspect we're already at the infamous "Peak". When Saudi Arabia claimed they were going to increase production (back when oil was at $80), they were unable to do that. If even the Saudi can't, then it's time to run for the hills.

    (If someone has more accurate information, please come forth. )

    I'm convinced oil prices have nowhere to go but up in the next 20 years. It's just basic supply and demand, increasing cost prices and political instability.

    However, short-term variations cannot be predicted. Three factors have a huge influence:
    - obviously, political factors especiall in the Middle East;
    - the existence of a global monetary bubble spawned by the unholy alliance of the US trade deficit, the (mostly) pegged status of the renminbi, the competition between China and Japan for the US market (which forces the Bank of Japan to prevent the yen from appreciating at any cost), ultra-low interest rates in Japan, and the growing popularity of hedge funds;
    - the actual value of the dollar. If the dollar depreciates, oil prices rise. Conversely, if the US government got its act together and was serious about cutting the deficit, this might slash oil prices by up to 40%.

    That's enough reasons NOT to try and lose my shirt on short-term energy futures.

    SoCal Alan said:
    easy_rider911 said:
    If The Groom knew that, he would be trading oil futures, not posting replies on Rennteam!!

    And ordering a Veyron, not a Porsche.


    It's ok, I've got a sudden Euro 140k windfall that I intended to spend in May. Maybe by October, I'll have that Veyron (1:18 scale probably )!

    Re: Kinda OT, but, "Peak Oil" what is it? us$11 gas?

    This should be of interest:

    The largest oil terminal in the world, Ras Tanura, is located on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, along the Persian Gulf. From Ras Tanura's control tower, you can see the classic totems of oil's dominion -- supertankers coming and going, row upon row of storage tanks and miles and miles of pipes. Ras Tanura, which I visited in June, is the funnel through which nearly 10 percent of the world's daily supply of petroleum flows. Standing in the control tower, you are surrounded by more than 50 million barrels of oil, yet not a drop can be seen.

    The oil is there, of course. In a technological sleight of hand, oil can be extracted from the deserts of Arabia, processed to get rid of water and gas, sent through pipelines to a terminal on the gulf, loaded onto a supertanker and shipped to a port thousands of miles away, then run through a refinery and poured into a tanker truck that delivers it to a suburban gas station, where it is pumped into an S.U.V. -- all without anyone's actually glimpsing the stuff. So long as there is enough oil to fuel the global economy, it is not only out of sight but also out of mind, at least for consumers.

    I visited Ras Tanura because oil is no longer out of mind, thanks to record prices caused by refinery shortages and surging demand -- most notably in the United States and China -- which has strained the capacity of oil producers and especially Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter of all. Unlike the 1973 crisis, when the embargo by the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries created an artificial shortfall, today's shortage, or near-shortage, is real.

    Rest at (highly recommended):

    Re: Kinda OT, but, "Peak Oil" what is it? us$11 gas?

    Thank you for posting A very interesting article. Thank you.

    Re: Kinda OT, but, "Peak Oil" what is it? us$11 ga

    ...and that article underscores the points I made earlier. A prolonged severe oil crisis could be devastating to our economy and way of life. Maybe you guys are right and alternative fuels can be made available in sufficient quantities at some point, but it will take years, perhaps a decade or more, to develop them to a point where they can replace petroleum-based fuels. Meanwhile, $10/gal gas will plunge us into deep depression. All it will take is for Iran to invade Iraq or for the Saudi royal family to be overthrown. Both are highly likely scenarios.

    Re: Kinda OT, but, "Peak Oil" what is it? us$11 ga

    911Dave said:
    All it will take is for Iran to invade Iraq or for the Saudi royal family to be overthrown. Both are highly likely scenarios.

    We all have to start talking. No threats or bullying. Maybe our gov't learned "superpower" is BS. We're dependent on eachother. (i.e Iran wants to sell oil because life there ain't that great either. Chinese want Iran to sell oil and want USA to be able to buy it'sproducts, impossible if USA goes into recession or depression.)

    I hope Bush learns that we'vew all gotta be talking to each other.

    I don't think the majority of Iranians want to destroy the USA. They act that way because we threaten them.

    Most terrorism would stop if USA Gov't quit bullying everybody around an ended obvious and repellant "favoritism" (code word) in the Middle East.

    Its time to put the Saudi's out of business

    I personally want to see oil taxes raised (big time) to fund this puppy....

    Side question to our German posters, what is life like without Russion oil? Does your country plan to make any policy changes?

    Re: Its time to put the Saudi's out of business

    So far, the only policy changes have been building new pipes to Russia and promising to shut down nuclear reactors.
    Of course, the fact that the person responsible for such a bright idea now works for Gazprom has to be a coincidence...

    Re: Kinda OT, but, "Peak Oil" what is it? us$11 gas?

    You are welcome. You may also find this quite interesting, from the angle of methods to ensure the flow (all resources, not just oil) keeps coming:

    I've read Perkin's book, and the interview is a good distillation of it. He has a political point of view that won't appeal to some (in the book he talks about where he started at and is at now), but his been there, seen that is undeniable.

    Re: Kinda OT, but, "Peak Oil" what is it? us$11 gas?

    MMD is right, we are dependent on one another for both raw materials and finished goods. Even Chavez acknowledges this dependence by raising security at Venezuela's oil fields in response to Al-Quieda's threat. Whether or not he likes it, he too must dance with the devil.



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