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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla fanboys burying the head in the sand and pretend the 'negative' reports doesn't exist doesn't mean those stuff isn't happening in the real world.

    This is not Tesla bashing, it's about a bunch of members here with financial background commenting on the financial health of a publicly traded company, which happens to make some fast electric cars with a leader that likes to do smokes and mirrors. 

    We may not be Elon Musk with his visions, but we can read market and company reports. It's what some of us do for a living, reading the fine print disclaimers etc.

    For a non-fan-boy, whether Tesla go bust or not makes no difference, it's just another publicly traded company going chapter 11 or chapter 7, nothing more nothing less. And we move onto the next one.

    For Tesla fanboys, if Tesla go bust, it would be a huge blow to their ego. 

    The price job from the recall is overblown that's for sure, Tesla is not the only company ever recalling a car, but it just happened at a very bad time for Tesla. 

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    So short it lol. Buy $1m in puts. You'll make hundreds of millions of dollars...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Concur.  Here’s the latest on the California Model X death.  https://electrek.co/2018/03/30/tesla-autopilot-fatal-crash-data/

    Tesla releases a blog statement late Friday of a holiday weekend, evidently hoping to minimize its effect on the markets.  Once again, underdeveloped and oversold Autopilot has lulled someone into overconfidence, this time with tragic consequences.   Blaming the state of California for a damaged crash attenuator is a cavalier statement as well, there are numerous dangerous obstacles on virtually every road.  It is the driver’s responsibility to avoid them.  



    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    So short it lol. Buy $1m in puts. You'll make hundreds of millions of dollars...

    Here’s why shorting remains a risky proposition, as long as there are Teslabots, such as yourself, willing to invest at ridiculously high valuations, the short positions are squeezed out.  In a purely efficient market, short positions would help to drive valuations into a fair value range.  However, with the euphoric base, there will be some really disappointed small investors when the state of the company is understood by all market participants.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    So short it lol. Buy $1m in puts. You'll make hundreds of millions of dollars...

     

    Why?

    I am in the stock market for fun. Not for a living. I never short anything and I never do options either.

    I buy something to expect them to go up, not down.

    There are millions of shares being short on Tesla anyway. And those guys made a killing last 2 trading days. But then again those traders depends on those profits to make their house and car payments, something I don't need to do.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Tesla won’t go away, as much as some here want them gone for whatever ego reason, it will be very alive but will wipe shareholder money and maybe bond holders money and will move on, worst case. People who will have lost money will do so knowing very well what they did and no one should come out crying. They believed in something and were wrong on the way to finance it. Everyone said building a car brand from scratch was very cash intensive. Maybe they just got the “how much” part wrong. Does anyone remembers Eurotunnel? It is not that different. Good product, bad original cost estimates...

    I also find the Model X more pleasing than the Jag, but that’s just because the Jag is really really ugly.

    Tesla interior is not at Mercedes/BMW/Audi level, but right now it doesn’t matter because all the German products are vaporware. Many here claim they have seen the German manufacturers roadmap, but I seriously doubt it will materialize at the prices they think it will, because then they will be killing all their own high margin products and shooting themselves in the foot. Just look at the Mission E from Porsche... Call me spoiled but I cannot tell the difference between a basic Mercedes, a Tesla or an Honda Accord or Chrysler 200. To me they are all the same but at least the Tesla is new fresh and modern. A recent Q3 loaner was actually shockingly poor quality for an Audi. Basic Porsche Macan or Boxster interiors are marginally nicer. Now start adding full leather and all and there is a difference. My RRS and Macan are well above anything Tesla can do. So bottom line expect for a few people, many here apparently, Tesla interiors are just fine and definitely doesn’t stop them from buying the car. Again, they are the top selling car in the luxury segment.

    I find the lack of respect from some people here for what Tesla has achieved disgusting and dishonest and actually some probably have an actual personal agenda for bashing them so hard. Tesla gets hammered because Bosh made a mistake but Porsche gets a pass when they replace all the GT3 engines? Enough said...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    It’s evident that you are not familiar with the U.S. bankruptcy process with the statement you have made.  Trade credit is a larger looming issue than debt on the balance sheet.  

    Compare the quality of the Audi Q3 compared with other crossovers in its price range, especially the Mercedes GLA.  There is a dramatic difference.

     

     

     


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Is Tesla too entrenched in the EV market to let fail? My understanding is it needs a cash infusion of 2.5B to continue. Possibly a white knight? This is chump change to many market whales. 


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    Where the willingness is great, the difficulties cannot be great.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    No one said Tesla will go away, jus saying it's closing in on filing chapter 11, debt reorganization. They probably don't want to do a chapter 7 and sell off assets. and it will come back still as Tesla after. 

    When they report their quarterly this time around, they should be down to perhaps slightly over 2 billion in cash and equivalents. Down from about 3.4 billion at the beginning of the year.

    They have a bit over a billion of debt maturing over the next 12 months, and 3/4 of a billion planned Capex for the first quarter next year. 

    With the guidance of burning a billion or so a quarter, they would need a immediate cash infusion of at least a billion before the end of the year and more start of next year. The 2.5 billion estimate is for them to survive until at least next March. If they can keep their cash flow neutral.

    Tesla already have a debt load of almost 10 billion dollars, much of those are convertibles. First of which are due in 2019 and those are way underwater, so Tesla has no choice but to pay up money instead of shares. Convertible bonds are great for tech startups, they are sold on hopes and dreams and works great for rapidly expanding tech companies, cause it's almost like free money for them to spend. But Tesla is a car maker, not a tech company, and rapid expansion is undoable in the car business. 

    But Nick, yes, 2 billion is chum change for most financiers, but those people don't get rich by financing black holes. And now that Tesla is begging, not asking for money, the terms will be very harsh. Tesla can't hide, cause the financial records are public, so everyone and their mother knows they are in trouble. These people are like sharks smelling blood, they don't even need to give Tesla any money yet, they can sit on the sideline watching Tesla get squeezed till almost the end before coming in.

    Now if I were in such a place to negotiate with Tesla, based on their track record, I would ask for $2billion convertibles at a strike price of $50 based on them doing the offering at $200. Or I will just directly ask for at least 10% if not 25% of the company. Basically it would be straight up highway robbery.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:

    It’s evident that you are not familiar with the U.S. bankruptcy process with the statement you have made.  Trade credit is a larger looming issue than debt on the balance sheet.  

    Compare the quality of the Audi Q3 compared with other crossovers in its price range, especially the Mercedes GLA.  There is a dramatic difference.

    And how expensive do you think a GLA would be with a Tesla powertrain? Yes, we know, in a GLA you're paying for a badge and a cheapo power train, thus they can afford you a bit "nicer" interior for your money. In a Tesla you're paying for the powertrain and getting a "lesser" interior.

    The Model S interior is no worse than any satisfactory German product, GLA included. I've driven expensive German cars and the Model S. Honestly, it made no difference. I was satisfied with each. The difference in style is the biggest difference, not the difference in quality/materials. 


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    But Nick, yes, 2 billion is chum change for most financiers, but those people don't get rich by financing black holes. And now that Tesla is begging, not asking for money, the terms will be very harsh. Tesla can't hide, cause the financial records are public, so everyone and their mother knows they are in trouble. These people are like sharks smelling blood, they don't even need to give Tesla any money yet, they can sit on the sideline watching Tesla get squeezed till almost the end before coming in.


    Google burns nearly $4B on "Other Bets", which are random tech ideas/business that bring in on a fraction of that in revenue. They are money pits that Google "hopes" might succeed one day.

    There are plenty of companies out there that have vast amounts of money to burn if they think they can make it work.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:
    Whoopsy:

    But Nick, yes, 2 billion is chum change for most financiers, but those people don't get rich by financing black holes. And now that Tesla is begging, not asking for money, the terms will be very harsh. Tesla can't hide, cause the financial records are public, so everyone and their mother knows they are in trouble. These people are like sharks smelling blood, they don't even need to give Tesla any money yet, they can sit on the sideline watching Tesla get squeezed till almost the end before coming in.


    Google burns nearly $4B on "Other Bets", which are random tech ideas/business that bring in on a fraction of that in revenue. They are money pits that Google "hopes" might succeed one day.

    There are plenty of companies out there that have vast amounts of money to burn if they think they can make it work.

     

    And the difference is Google is a tech company, Tesla is a car company pretending to be a tech company and wanted to be treated the same.

    Plus, Google is wroth over 700 billion, Tesla is not. 


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:
    CGX car nut:

    It’s evident that you are not familiar with the U.S. bankruptcy process with the statement you have made.  Trade credit is a larger looming issue than debt on the balance sheet.  

    Compare the quality of the Audi Q3 compared with other crossovers in its price range, especially the Mercedes GLA.  There is a dramatic difference.

    And how expensive do you think a GLA would be with a Tesla powertrain? Yes, we know, in a GLA you're paying for a badge and a cheapo power train, thus they can afford you a bit "nicer" interior for your money. In a Tesla you're paying for the powertrain and getting a "lesser" interior.

    The Model S interior is no worse than any satisfactory German product, GLA included. I've driven expensive German cars and the Model S. Honestly, it made no difference. I was satisfied with each. The difference in style is the biggest difference, not the difference in quality/materials. 

    Joost was spot one. It seems about time that "noone1" has an appropriate avatar for Rennteam...

    1522511860459image.jpeg

    ...would you like a Rennteam Moderator to fix it for you? Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Nick, you know your stuff.kiss That said, I suspect Tesla will survive.


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    Where the willingness is great, the difficulties cannot be great.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    noone1:
    Whoopsy:

    But Nick, yes, 2 billion is chum change for most financiers, but those people don't get rich by financing black holes. And now that Tesla is begging, not asking for money, the terms will be very harsh. Tesla can't hide, cause the financial records are public, so everyone and their mother knows they are in trouble. These people are like sharks smelling blood, they don't even need to give Tesla any money yet, they can sit on the sideline watching Tesla get squeezed till almost the end before coming in.


    Google burns nearly $4B on "Other Bets", which are random tech ideas/business that bring in on a fraction of that in revenue. They are money pits that Google "hopes" might succeed one day.

    There are plenty of companies out there that have vast amounts of money to burn if they think they can make it work.

     

    And the difference is Google is a tech company, Tesla is a car company pretending to be a tech company and wanted to be treated the same.

    Plus, Google is wroth over 700 billion, Tesla is not. 

    If there is a suggestion anyone (or noone1?) believes that Google might be a "white knight" to rescue Tesla, it is worth noting that Google has just announced a partnership through Waymo with Jaguar Land Rover...

    Press Release: "Meet our newest self-driving vehicle: the all-electric Jaguar I-PACE"

    (27 March 2018)

    Today Waymo and Jaguar Land Rover are announcing an electrifying new partnership. We’re joining forces to design and engineer the world’s first premium electric fully self-driving vehicle, built for Waymo’s transportation service. This new self-driving Jaguar I-PACE blends Jaguar’s knack for innovative design with Waymo’s cutting-edge self-driving technology, designed and developed completely in-house.

    At Waymo, we’ve been building the world's most experienced driver: a safe, skillful and savvy chauffeur that can take people and things from A to B at the push of a button. Imagine a world where you can take a self-driving minivan to the baseball game with family, and a self-driving I-PACE home after a night out — in both cases, a car perfectly suited for your needs. That’s the world we’re building.

    The all-electric I-PACE is a natural choice for this world. This is a sleek and graceful car, so it will provide a safe and delightful experience for our passengers. Its size makes it ideal for city driving. Its big, fast-charge battery means it can drive all day, which is perfect for our self-driving service. And, as part of a shared fleet, we can make this premium experience accessible to everyone.

    We’ll add up to 20,000 I-PACEs to Waymo’s fleet in the next few years — that’s enough to drive about a million trips in a typical day. With this partnership, we can offer our self-driving service to many communities across the country with vehicles that are safe, quiet and eco-friendly.

    This is just the beginning. The self-driving products of the future will be designed around passengers, not drivers. That means riders will be able to choose from a broad array of options that will match their very specific needs: one for working remotely as you commute, one for dining with friends, even one designed for napping! The ultimate goal: with Waymo as the driver, products tailored for every purpose and every trip.

    Reaching that goal starts with partnerships with innovative automakers and OEMs, like Jaguar Land Rover. Their team truly shares our vision of a self-driving future where roads are safer and transportation is accessible for all.

    The new self-driving I-PACE will start testing in our fleet later this year, and will soon be playing a vital full-time role in Waymo’s driverless transportation service. We’re looking forward to this new partnership, and the possibilities it unlocks for Waymo’s riders across the country.

    - End -


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    noone1:
    Whoopsy:

    But Nick, yes, 2 billion is chum change for most financiers, but those people don't get rich by financing black holes. And now that Tesla is begging, not asking for money, the terms will be very harsh. Tesla can't hide, cause the financial records are public, so everyone and their mother knows they are in trouble. These people are like sharks smelling blood, they don't even need to give Tesla any money yet, they can sit on the sideline watching Tesla get squeezed till almost the end before coming in.


    Google burns nearly $4B on "Other Bets", which are random tech ideas/business that bring in on a fraction of that in revenue. They are money pits that Google "hopes" might succeed one day.

    There are plenty of companies out there that have vast amounts of money to burn if they think they can make it work.

     

    And the difference is Google is a tech company, Tesla is a car company pretending to be a tech company and wanted to be treated the same.

    Plus, Google is wroth over 700 billion, Tesla is not. 

    So then Google or some other tech giant may invest or buy them, or Toyota or any big auto company. Tesla's brand alone is worth billions.

    Tesla isn't going anywhere. No one here cares about the company finances other than the people who seem to think they'll fail. Tesla will be selling cars for a long time, and whether current shareholders or bond holders lose money is irrelevant.


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:
    Whoopsy:
    noone1:
    Whoopsy:

    But Nick, yes, 2 billion is chum change for most financiers, but those people don't get rich by financing black holes. And now that Tesla is begging, not asking for money, the terms will be very harsh. Tesla can't hide, cause the financial records are public, so everyone and their mother knows they are in trouble. These people are like sharks smelling blood, they don't even need to give Tesla any money yet, they can sit on the sideline watching Tesla get squeezed till almost the end before coming in.


    Google burns nearly $4B on "Other Bets", which are random tech ideas/business that bring in on a fraction of that in revenue. They are money pits that Google "hopes" might succeed one day.

    There are plenty of companies out there that have vast amounts of money to burn if they think they can make it work.

     

    And the difference is Google is a tech company, Tesla is a car company pretending to be a tech company and wanted to be treated the same.

    Plus, Google is wroth over 700 billion, Tesla is not. 

    So then Google or some other tech giant may invest or buy them, or Toyota or any big auto company. Tesla's brand alone is worth billions.

    Tesla isn't going anywhere. No one here cares about the company finances other than the people who seem to think they'll fail. Tesla will be selling cars for a long time, and whether current shareholders or bond holders lose money is irrelevant.

     

    Have you been reading? No one said Tesla will disappear. We are just talking about it going into bankruptcy to reorganize their debt.

    As for other tech giant buying it, they will when it drops to around 10 billion valuation, which is fair market value consider how much debt it is carrying.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:
    nberry:

    Thanks for your dissertation but you misjudge me. I have Republican blood in me. I know how our federal government works. When it comes to spending money each administration puts in place people that mirror and execute their views. Its no different with Trump. The career underlings cannot control policy. They only follow.

    I also believe you underestimate the brand of Tesla in the market place. When one thinks of EV vehicles only one brand comes to mind. TESLA! They are innovators in EV technology. Their presence in the market place forces all car companies to innovate because the future of cars is EV. I don't know if Tesla will survive but I do know one should never count Musk out.Smiley

     

    As a person with experiences in finance and stocks, IF Tesla's valuation is at around 5-7 billion, I would totalling buy it out.  And that's already including perhaps a 40% premium.

    Right now its worth about 8-10 times more than it should, and I wouldn't, it's just not a sound business decision.

    There is nothing special about Tesla, everything it can do, someone else can do. It occupied a niche market segment, nothing more. The Tesla fan boys can claimed whatever they want, it's just numbers, I can use the exact sam set of numbers and present a completely opposite case of whatever they want to trumpet with.

    But yes, in North America, when one think of EV, one thinks of Tesla first, that may not and is not the case world wide. To be frank, Tesla makes expensive EV cars, but nothing on them is class leading, content wise, interior is only on par with perhaps a Camry, an Accord and that's about it. The electric drivetrain eats up pretty much all of the cost of a Tesla Model S or Model X. 

    Seriously, I when I sit in a Tesla, without driving it, just touching surfaces, they are even inferior to my Golf R. Not to mention my 4C, which btw have leather and stitched dash. Something that not even all the 911 gets.

    Model S, and Model X has some amazing acceleration stats, but those are not sustainable. Try doing acceleration runs and it would be quite apparent.

     

    When did you get the Golf R? Is it good? I am also considering getting one...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    wantone:
    Whoopsy:
    nberry:

    Thanks for your dissertation but you misjudge me. I have Republican blood in me. I know how our federal government works. When it comes to spending money each administration puts in place people that mirror and execute their views. Its no different with Trump. The career underlings cannot control policy. They only follow.

    I also believe you underestimate the brand of Tesla in the market place. When one thinks of EV vehicles only one brand comes to mind. TESLA! They are innovators in EV technology. Their presence in the market place forces all car companies to innovate because the future of cars is EV. I don't know if Tesla will survive but I do know one should never count Musk out.Smiley

     

    As a person with experiences in finance and stocks, IF Tesla's valuation is at around 5-7 billion, I would totalling buy it out.  And that's already including perhaps a 40% premium.

    Right now its worth about 8-10 times more than it should, and I wouldn't, it's just not a sound business decision.

    There is nothing special about Tesla, everything it can do, someone else can do. It occupied a niche market segment, nothing more. The Tesla fan boys can claimed whatever they want, it's just numbers, I can use the exact sam set of numbers and present a completely opposite case of whatever they want to trumpet with.

    But yes, in North America, when one think of EV, one thinks of Tesla first, that may not and is not the case world wide. To be frank, Tesla makes expensive EV cars, but nothing on them is class leading, content wise, interior is only on par with perhaps a Camry, an Accord and that's about it. The electric drivetrain eats up pretty much all of the cost of a Tesla Model S or Model X. 

    Seriously, I when I sit in a Tesla, without driving it, just touching surfaces, they are even inferior to my Golf R. Not to mention my 4C, which btw have leather and stitched dash. Something that not even all the 911 gets.

    Model S, and Model X has some amazing acceleration stats, but those are not sustainable. Try doing acceleration runs and it would be quite apparent.

     

    When did you get the Golf R? Is it good? I am also considering getting one...

     

    Bought it last Sept for my son. He turned 16 last August. 

    Initially he wanted the base Golf, then the wife said the GTI looks better with the red trim, then my son prefer the blue on the Golf R so Golf R it is.

    The car is a great city run around car, engine makes some nice noise, throttle response is quite good, but at times there is a certain steering angle where torque steer appears, very very subtle but it's there for a brief moment, normally it's when doing gentle lane change where it would 'stuck' at a certain angle for a fraction of a second. 

    Overall, I love that little thing. 


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    rhino:

    https://insideevs.com/tesla-files-for-all-chapters-of-bankruptcy/

    It's good to see Elon Musk is maintaining his ironic sense of humour...

    1522652848515image.jpeg

    1522652864683image.jpeg

    1522652652815image.jpeg

    Smiley


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Is this appropriate behavior for the CEO of a multi-, multi-billion dollar market cap company?  As stated many times before on this blog, Musk’s hubris will be the downfall of the company.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Why should CEOs have to be rigid, lifeless people in suits?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    Why should CEOs have to be rigid, lifeless people in suits?

     

    This point I agree with you. 

    But it only applies to CEOs that can deliver. Elon's story have yet to be written in full. He had shown he can be a good creator of startups, but the track record of leading a company is still murky.

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    My favorite CEO is Legere. He wears bright pink T-shirt’s under a black jacket.

    I don’t claim to be an expert in American bankruptcy laws, far from there, but I think my reasoning still holds, Tesla stays, shareholders are wiped, bond holders take a hit, worst case. Oh and Elon gets even richer down the road...


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Most debts that I know of are structured that bonds are the senior debt holders, they ar the one the dictate the terms and first to be paid. The bond holders will not lose a cent, it will be regular stock holders, customer that had paid deposits and Elon & Co that takes a haircut. Don't forget, Elon is one of the biggest share holder so he stands to lose a lot.

     

     


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    Re: Tesla Roadster

    noone1:

    Why should CEOs have to be rigid, lifeless people in suits?

    What the h*ll does this have to do about irresponsibly Tweeting about bankruptcy?  Do you realize that many trading programs, Algo trading systems, scan the news for such stories, and react accordingly?


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    Whoopsy:

    Most debts that I know of are structured that bonds are the senior debt holders, they ar the one the dictate the terms and first to be paid. The bond holders will not lose a cent, it will be regular stock holders, customer that had paid deposits and Elon & Co that takes a haircut. Don't forget, Elon is one of the biggest share holder so he stands to lose a lot.

     

     

    Don’t forget that a bankrupt company will need to receive debtor-in-possession financing during a Chapter 11 restructuring.   Any evidence of fraud or misconduct makes tha financing difficult.  Tesla has a history of privacy that might hinder that process.  


    Re: Tesla Roadster

    CGX car nut:
    noone1:

    Why should CEOs have to be rigid, lifeless people in suits?

    What the h*ll does this have to do about irresponsibly Tweeting about bankruptcy?  Do you realize that many trading programs, Algo trading systems, scan the news for such stories, and react accordingly?

    Elon's job isn't to make sure some half-assed trading algorithm works. I would find it hilarious if someone was dumb enough to write such an algorithm and then lose a shit load of money because of an April Fools joke.


     
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